New results from ReachTEL, Essential and Morgan have finally put some meat on BludgerTrack’s New Year bones. However, their entry into the pool has had very little impact on the voting intention numbers, which hopefully means the model was doing its job. Both major parties are up a bit on the primary vote after being down a bit last time, but only Labor has made up the difference, the Coalition still being 0.8% off their starting point. With the ups and downs of the minor parties amounting to minor statistical noise, two-party preferred stays exactly where it was following Labor’s half-point gain a week ago. Things are calm on the surface, but the infusion of new data has helped smooth out the eccentricities of recent state-level projections, most notably the extravagant swing to Labor that was showing up in Queensland for a few weeks there. That shaves three off a still ample tally of Labor gains, suggesting Bill Glasson has his work cut out for him at next Saturday’s Griffith by-election. The seat projection has the Coalition down this week a seat each in New South Wales and Victoria, which taken together with the Queensland adjustment makes a net gain of one seat nationally.
ReachTEL had personal ratings this week which I’ve yet to remark on, and can finally little to say about now that I am because the charges are very slight. The best headline writers could do was talk up a 1.8% increase in Tony Abbott’s “very good” rating and a 2% drop in Bill Shorten’s. The latter might be part of a trend, but there’s little reason yet to think that the former is. ReachTEL doesn’t get included in the BludgerTrack leadership polling aggregates, as its five-point scale and compulsory answering mean it can’t readily be compared with other outfits. Nonetheless, there has been a change in the BludgerTrack ratings this week, not because of new data, but because I’ve implemented a means of standardising the polls to stop the trendline blowing around in response to the house bias of the most recently reporting pollster. This has had the effect of moderating the downward turn in Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, which continues to hang off a single Essential Research result, the only leadership poll rating to emerge so far this year. Presumably that will be changing very shortly as the bigger polling outlets emerge from hibernation.
Michelle Gratten built her whole career on writing the same article. That “this latest political event” will either have some effect or none at all.
[All this talk about sharks! Surely the only shark that needs mutilation is TA.]
And the protesters were out in Manly today. 🙂
So you condone that comment, confessions?
[I’m keen to know because I’m yet to hear Kim Carr say anything in public that suggests he might be somewhat left of centre. Perhaps he saves it all up for those late night discussions in darkened rooms. This makes him rather different from, say, Doug Cameron who occasionally dogwhistles in the direct of old-fashioned left of centre trade unionism.]
Both Carr and Cameron describe themselves as democratic socialists. I presume democratic socialism means the socialisation of the means of production by democratic means, by an elected socialist government. That is the official objective of the SL. But they usually keep these views to their own circles, of which I’m not a member. In practice what they usually mean by “socialism” is protectionism and state regulation. Modernisers in the left like Tanner and Wong have tried to move them away from these dead doctrines, but the SL’s policies are ultimately decided by the left unions, and they will cling to the faded remnants of marxism for some time yet.
I think it’s unfair to accuse Cameron of “dog whistling.” I’m sure he holds his views with complete sincerity, and he is more willing to say what he thinks in public than most of the left. Carr by contrast is by nature secretive and conspiratorial, and he rarely says much in public.
[Michelle Gratten built her whole career on writing the same article. That “this latest political event” will either have some effect or none at all.]
Exactly. She brought the same idiotic commentary to her gig with Fran Kelly each morning as well.
As others have previously noted, she is forgotten, but still not gone.
Hey Fran, wanna date?
[So you condone that comment, confessions?]
I would be very happy for Abbott to be politically mutilated, yes. In fact I can’t understand why the Liberal party haven’t necked him yet.
rossmcg@2297
I have never met her so cannot really comment on whether she is nice or not.
I must have come close to meeting her as she was lecturing at Monash Uni when I studied politics there. 🙂
Did you think the same way about Helen Thomas? She was much older than Michelle Grattan and still working.
Interesting…… you thought it was sexist that Gillard was not referred to as “Prime Minister” but you join in when someone posts about the mutilation of Abbott!
GG
[Michelle Gratten built her whole career on writing the same article. That “this latest political event” will either have some effect or none at all.]
So she was right 100% of the time!
😉
ML:
If you want to troll me you’ll have to do better than that.
Psephos
TA … Pretty much what I thought.
FTR it’s possible IMO. To dog whistle to audiences while sincerely believing the things you dog whistle.
awww ML trolling working anymore.
Lynchpin
[Hey Fran, wanna date?]
Hubby would object.
Fran,
and left 100% of the time!
Speaking of the Mighty Sharks (Cronulla Sutherland) for all my NRL friend in here.
Just incase you missed it tonight, the Sharks / Bluestone development on the Shark owned land surrounding the Cronulla clubhouse and oval went on sale today. Well Stage 1 did.
Over $100 million dollars in sales committments in wait for it….. wait for it…….. in over EIGHT HOURS.
Over 1,240 have registered interests in buying.
Neat hey !!!
LONG LIVE THE MIGHTY SHARKS.
Confessions
I can almost remember the day I stopped listening to RN breakfast. It was during one of this Grattan speeches where she was hinting at all sorts of things but revealing nothing. This, I thought, is crap. I have never been back and from what i have heard about Ms Kelly it was a good move.
Bemused
What has age got to do with it. If you cut the mustard you keep the gig, whether you are 22 or 92. I dunno how old laurie Oakes is but he can still outplay the kiddies when he needs to? Somebody said Paul Bongiono is 70!
Not that it characterises who she is, but is it true that Fran Kelly is gay?
Oh and for grammar failings/spelling failings is because I am actually watching TV (Japanese TV admittedly).
US,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fran_Kelly
Interesting…… you thought it was sexist that Gillard was not referred to as “Prime Minister” but you join in when someone posts about the mutilation of Abbott
TA is only a claytons PM, he will never be held in the esteem of a real PM. Never ever, surely! Julia ate him for breakfast and they both knew it, nothing to do with sex.
Bemused 2308…re Helen Thomas
________________
I read her material in US journals for many years ,and she was a thorn in the side of Bush at the time of his liea and distortions re the Iraq War,and much loved by many in the White House Press corps
She finally commited the major sin of speaking out of the role of the Zionist Lobby in US politics…then a no-no and she was given the usual treatment by the usual suspects
Today that topic is much more openly discussed in much of the US media
I know she went into retirement after that,but I don’t know whether she is still living
Someone did a study on what happened when Tsalagiyi Detsadanilvgi aka The Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians got their casino. Harrah’s Cherokee Casino spends proportions of its profits on infrastructure, cultural preservation, environmental stuff and pays all the members of the community a guaranteed income. As a result it seems many of that mob who were in poverty are now out of poverty and that is being reflected in lower rates of mental illness and more successful cases of children growing up to become functioning adults.
Professor Jane Costello was the someone. Her study kind of resonates with several things – the Abbott Govt’s attack on car manufacturing and SPC, their attack on welfare entitlements, and the cost of an NDIS.
There’s a thing about it here.
And another one here.
US
You mean you didn’t know for sure? Mate, you need to get out more.
Thanks, Psephos. I think Frydenberg was at an Indonesian lecture thing at Uni, once. Might look into that 🙂
Abbott regularly dines at the Blue Thai Restaurant.
Psephos,
Your thoughts if any on the CFEMU allegations in regards to Daniel Andrews and the ramifications for Vic election. Can assume Libs will try a massive scare campaign. ie CFEMU will then run the state, but they just don’t seem to have anyone suitable to run it. Guy fancies himself as an attack dog, but is useless, same for Peter Ryan.
[She finally commited the major sin of speaking out of the role of the Zionist Lobby in US politics]
As I recall it, the specific form taken by her criticism of “the role of the Zionist lobby in US politics” was that Jews should “get the hell out of Palestine”.
rossmcg:
I stopped listening to RN breakfast when it became clear many years ago that it was just an audio version of whatever was reported in the Australian that day. The same angle, same hysteria. I mean, why bother?
Same with Grattan. If I want to read a ‘maybe this, but then again maybe that’ op-ed piece I’ll read Dennis Shanahan.
rossmcg @2324
I went through year 12 last year, I wasnt paying much attention lol
[Abbott regularly dines at the Blue Thai Restaurant.]
😆
US
Year 12? You obviously had other things on your mind. All is forgiven.
Greensborough Growler @2326
Is that in Sydney by any chance? I just google searched it and could not find it?
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 4m
#ReachTEL Poll Australia becoming a republic: Support 39.4 Oppose 41.6 #auspol
rossmcg @2332
At least it paid off… I get to go to Macquarie in a few weeks time
US
Well done and good luck
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#ReachTEL Poll Australia becoming a republic: Support 39.4 Oppose 41.6 #auspol]
Divisive issue.
zoidlord @2334
Idiots.
In this day and age, you would expect Republican support to be at least over 70%
_______Bmused The Helen Thomas Bio from Wikiipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helen_Thomas
[Your thoughts if any on the CFEMU allegations in regards to Daniel Andrews and the ramifications for Vic election. ]
It certainly won’t help. The CFMEU is run by syndicalists who think “bosses’ law” doesn’t apply to them.
taylormade,
Just because the Libs and the Herald Sun push an issue, does not mean it resonates in the broader community.
This current Liberal Government is bewitched, bothered and bewildered and there aren’t many in Victoria who are lining up to speak about all their positive achievements.
Andrews just has to yawn at the attempted scare campaign and keep talking about bread and butter issues like Health, Hospitals, Education and jobs.
It’s the Libs that need to go unicorn hunting. Labor has their prey in sight and know how to catch it.
confessions @2337
It perfectly explains what a joke that this country has become. It is a divisive issue, yet it should be a unifying issue. We are an intellectual banana republic, albeit not an economic banana republic (thanks to the mighty PJK in no small part).
Greensborough Growler
Posted Saturday, February 1, 2014 at 10:54 pm | Permalink
Abbott regularly dines at the Blue Thai Restaurant.
You shouldn’t put their customers off like that. They just serve what ever come in!
PS They have probably told him their staff are not unionised unlike SPC, Holden, ABC, Teachers, Aged care workers and child care workers.
[In this day and age, you would expect Republican support to be at least over 70%]
I would attribute this to:
* Complete lack of leadership from Labor on this since Keating retired, since Labor has become convinced it’s an “inner city elite issue.” We’ve just had six years of Labor government in which the issue was completely ignored.
* The increased popularity of the Royal Family since the low-point of the Diana scandals, particularly the recent Royal wedding etc.
Greensborough Growler @2341
I am predicting Labor can well win a good 55% of the 2PP vote. Andrews is at least 20 years younger than Napthine and is sharply focused; eventually when people start tuning in in a few months, i reckon he will overtake Napthine in the preffered premier stakes.
US:
One of Mumble’s theses (can’t remember which one), showed that a necessary condition for the successful yes vote in a referendum is bipartisanship of the issue.
This suggests that for as long as we don’t have bipartisanship for becoming a republic, expect a no vote should it come up again in a referendum.
Very sad, I agree.
Yes, bemused – you read but you don’t understand’
[The basic role of an MP is to solve people’s problems. Every MPs office does this, every day. ]
MPs solve people’s problems through legislation and advocacy.
Their OFFICE does this, every day.
Doesn’t mean the MP solves the problems of everybody who comes to their office, or is even aware of them.
The examples you gave of what MPs do is all to do with how they solve problems for people.
You don’t seem to understand that ‘big issues’ are issues which cause problems for lots of people.
The other problem with the pro-Republican support group is that the issue of an elected PooBah or appointed PooBah has never been resolved.
While the pro-vote is divided, the Republic will never happen.
confessions @2346
The only way to successfully push it through may be to have a Labor majority in federal parliament similiar to Newman’s majorty of about 90%. What a shame, if only we had real conviction conservatives in this country that actually stood for something other than plainly winning. Although, that may not be out of the question by 2016 with the trend in which tory polling is sinking at the moment.
[One of Mumble’s theses (can’t remember which one), showed that a necessary condition for the successful yes vote in a referendum is bipartisanship of the issue.]
You don’t need Mumble to tell you that. No referendum has ever passed which was opposed by one of the two major parties. But that didn’t apply to the 1999 referendum, since the Liberal government did not officially oppose the referendum. That vote was lost because of the split in the republican side caused by the direct electionists voting No.