New results from ReachTEL, Essential and Morgan have finally put some meat on BludgerTrack’s New Year bones. However, their entry into the pool has had very little impact on the voting intention numbers, which hopefully means the model was doing its job. Both major parties are up a bit on the primary vote after being down a bit last time, but only Labor has made up the difference, the Coalition still being 0.8% off their starting point. With the ups and downs of the minor parties amounting to minor statistical noise, two-party preferred stays exactly where it was following Labor’s half-point gain a week ago. Things are calm on the surface, but the infusion of new data has helped smooth out the eccentricities of recent state-level projections, most notably the extravagant swing to Labor that was showing up in Queensland for a few weeks there. That shaves three off a still ample tally of Labor gains, suggesting Bill Glasson has his work cut out for him at next Saturday’s Griffith by-election. The seat projection has the Coalition down this week a seat each in New South Wales and Victoria, which taken together with the Queensland adjustment makes a net gain of one seat nationally.
ReachTEL had personal ratings this week which I’ve yet to remark on, and can finally little to say about now that I am because the charges are very slight. The best headline writers could do was talk up a 1.8% increase in Tony Abbott’s “very good” rating and a 2% drop in Bill Shorten’s. The latter might be part of a trend, but there’s little reason yet to think that the former is. ReachTEL doesn’t get included in the BludgerTrack leadership polling aggregates, as its five-point scale and compulsory answering mean it can’t readily be compared with other outfits. Nonetheless, there has been a change in the BludgerTrack ratings this week, not because of new data, but because I’ve implemented a means of standardising the polls to stop the trendline blowing around in response to the house bias of the most recently reporting pollster. This has had the effect of moderating the downward turn in Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, which continues to hang off a single Essential Research result, the only leadership poll rating to emerge so far this year. Presumably that will be changing very shortly as the bigger polling outlets emerge from hibernation.
The canals aren’t netted and people are warned not to swim in canals so that is irrevelant to the benefits of netting beaches. Records show nets save human lives.
I reckon the Coalition last week decided that what’s happening to Abbott will get them slaughtered if they let it go, so they’ve adopted a “crash or crash through” strategy reckoning in a couple of years he’ll look like a “conviction politician” and so on and so forth.
I reckon it will just play negatively into what people already think about Abbott as a leader but we shall see
[Zoidlord on the evidence that deaths from shark attacks on netted beaches are virtually unknown now.]
rua (and others) advised last night when we were discussing this that there is an increasing trend towards shark attacks in canal developments in Qld.
As I said, it isn’t a clear cut case of cause and effect.
@Burgler/2198
I realize that 😀
But it was more of a tong in cheek 😛
But the Japanese do use abit of French cooking.
davidwh,
So, you’ve surveyed all those people that would be dead save for the introduction of shark nets?
Netting beaches is a bit like pool fences. People become complacent. A pool fence is only as good as it’s gate (swinging in the breeze) & shark nets cover at best a small percentage of any beach.
It’s all about being aware.
You have to be aware that despite having a pool fence your kid can still drown in the pool.
You have to be aware of the fact that swimming off any sea beach that a shark might give you a bite.
Everyone should get real about this.
@davidwh/2201
I see you got your liberal streak on….
Perhaps that’s why you don’t see the problem is still a problem.
Here is another one from Gold Coast:
http://www.qt.com.au/news/pranksters-film-moment-3m-shark-attacks-diver/2140126/
This was due to Human Stupidity.
In my opinion, Abbott is just like Gillard. He just hasn’t had a catalyst like “the lie” to set off all the baggage yet. There might not need to be one as things are pretty ugly for him as they are presently
David
Given the population growth in Perth in WA and the “fact” that there are “more sharks around” I would like an explanation as to why there have only been seven fatal attacks in the last three years and only one, to the best of my recall, off a metropolitan beach and that involved a swimmer who was 500m off the beach. The rest have been offshore or surfers or divers.
People are now swimming at beaches that couldn’t even been accessed without a 4WD 20 years ago. It’s a wonder the sharks aren’t queuing up like at a smorgasbord.
Some one who might know a bit about Cull’em Barnett’s thinking told me that he decided on this course of action after an attack in the south west that left all his western suburbs mates with holiday homes down there afraid to go in the water or more likely fearful that they wouldn’t be able to rent them for a couple of grand a week over the summer.
GG pointless point really but of course I haven’t. However the records show nets save lives at least on east coast beaches. One death in 70 years on NSW Netted beaches is a hard stat to argue about.
netting beaches? Hey, what a good idea! We can sell the Humpbacks that get caught in them to the Japanese for meat. 🙂
The problem with permanent nets is they tend to kill everything over a certain size that swims through the area.
If I have a steak on it’s my human streak but regardless the stats are the stats.
@davidwh/2211
vs How many sharks are we killing in the process just because a couple of humans were killed?
davidwh,
Point is you’ve made assertions that you feel are correct. However, you haven’t produced one schintilla of evidence to support your point.
So perhaps yours is the point that is pointless.
The elephant in the room wrt shark attacks in WA is the rising ocean temperature.
Sadly however, we have numpty Liberal govts which simply don’t prioritise addressing the effects of AGW. Well, increased great white traffic down the WA coastline, and the risks that this brings to beach goers is a consequence of that.
Re by-election in”Griffin”
_____________
Notable that the Lib candidate has been stressing that it’s not a general election but a by-election in which one must choose the candidate not vote on the govt’s record
seems like he is worried at the trends they may be seeing in the elctorate polling and in door-knocking
Why is Australia obsessing about boats? On the world stage we must look like a millionaire whinging about the insurance premiums on his Porsche. It should be something that Australians could slot on their list of things to worry about at number 7,000.
Of course we can stop the boats. We could sink them, abandon their passengers on the high seas, beat and torture their passengers on arrival or stuff the country so badly that no one would want to come here. We could declare ‘victory’ but that wouldn’t make it right.
When are the grown ups going to take charge? We have far more pressing problems, although the new government accords winning the racist bogan vote a higher priority than most of these. Grown Ups would be looking for a genuine, fair solution with our neighbours, one that respects humanity, our legal obligations and the integrity of our migration program. I’m sure that’s even more difficult than it sounds but that’s what we elect Governments to do. Meanwhile the climate, the budget and our manufacturing industry are going down the toilet.
I gave a key stat above. One death in 70 years.
fess,
How big is the coast line of WA. Say the Goverment kills 100 or even a thousand sharks. How many are out there? Will killing a shark only allow another to replace it?
I note one of today’s protests against the shark cull was in Alice Springs.
Presumably against sand sharks.
That or they are keeping that inland sea very well hidden from the rest of us.
davidwh,
Not a very big sample is it?
@davidwh/2219
Your not being very upfront, are ya?
GG, the sample size in this case is 70 years. The 1 is the result.
Steve777,
That’s interesting, actually. Abbott is hardly the first politician to whip up emotions about immigration and “illegals”, but he’s the only one I can think of that bleats about it to people on the international stage who don’t care and have their own political issues to deal with.
That’s not really an informative metric though. You need something to compare with. e.g. countries or areas with and without nets.
don@2108
That is basically true of any manager.
The best get out of their office and are around and about where the work is being done, showing interest and looking fro anything that needs fixing. They talk to those at the coalface and don’t rely entirely on reports of subordinates to know what is going on.
Inspiring to see thousands protesting the disgraceful slaughter of sharks.
It gives hope that people might just be waking from their slumber re the idiocy of certain state Govts and the federal Govt.
GG:
The shark cull is a political fix to a ‘problem’ (for those who think we have a problem) which requires a scientific one.
I’d much prefer that govt policy is driven by evidence, but am prepared to accept that we don’t usually get evidence-based policy with Liberal governments.
From a booklet called “Swan River Settlement” page 10…published by the Department of Education many years ago in WA.
May 8 from Captain Fremantle at Arhtur’s Head, the south hedland of the Swan….
“The people appeared to be comfortable, they had pitched their tents on Open Ground to gain a good view to prevent surprise from the Natives….they found water shortly with only digging about two feet…the soil does not look promising….The party had plenty of fish which they caught from the rocks and the Sharks…are most numerous….to bathe even from the beach is most hazardous…..”
Say it again from 1829…..”the Sharks….are most numerous….to bathe even from the beach is most hazardous……
Fremantle did not enlighten us as to whether these were White Pointers but clearly sharks are not a new problem for Perth beaches!!
I wonder if baited hooks were an option?
Then again there was Billy Hughes. They look almost like twins, really.
DN,
So, the evidence about hundreds of deaths prior to 1944 is where?
Was there actually a problem?
You do know that prior to the introduction of the automobile there were hardly any deaths in car crashes.
fess,
I’m shocked that a populist politician would use this as a populist political issue.
Bugler@2225
Lets see what happens when the monsoon is finished.
Must be soon if not about now?
Either way abbott’s got his nuts on the block with all of this. He might seem to win, then some serious event at sea, with Indonesia – who knows.
But Marty recently said yet again, stop this – then an Aussie rolls-royce boat is said to have been found on an Indonesian beach. Might be how how RAN “inadvertently” crossed into Indonesian waters – pushing/ towing boats back.
Just how long will Indonesia put up with it? Will someone in the Navy spill the beans….
In my opinion, Abbott is just like Gillard. He just hasn’t had a catalyst like “the lie” to set off all the baggage yet. There might not need to be one as things are pretty ugly for him as they are presently
I don’t think Abbott is like Gillard any more than a pig is like a Queen. But Abbott has more than enough lies, many included in Boerwar’s list of 95-odd surprises and excuses. What he doesn’t have is the mainstream media bellowing daily about them.
GG
[So, the evidence about hundreds of deaths prior to 1944 is where?]
See my 2226.
Just in terms of time, though, 70 years is probably a lot relative to the timescale of shark and human interaction.
spur212 @2209
Even without the massive wind behind the tory winds which was “the lie”, Abbott’s polling collapse is even faster than Gillards.
At the very least, Gillard never had a Newspoll that had the Coalition 2PP vote with a 6 in front of it. By the looks of it, come May or June Labor will have at least 60% 2PP on Newspoll
confessions
Posted Saturday, February 1, 2014 at 8:39 pm | Permalink
The elephant in the room wrt shark attacks in WA is the rising ocean temperature.
Sadly however, we have numpty Liberal govts which simply don’t prioritise addressing the effects of AGW. Well, increased great white traffic down the WA coastline, and the risks that this brings to beach goers is a consequence of that.
——————————————
In support of confessions rising sea temps
spur212 @2209
Even without the massive wind behind the tory sails which was “the lie”, Abbott’s polling collapse is even faster than Gillards.
At the very least, Gillard never had a Newspoll that had the Coalition 2PP vote with a 6 in front of it. By the looks of it, come May or June Labor will have at least 60% 2PP on Newspoll
Since when have surfers been wearing the wet suits that make them appear like seals swimming in the water?
In support of confessions rising sea temps
——————————–
Even someone like Bolt and possibly Sean could understand this. Its nice colours and does not need an understanding of numbers or the ability to read proper…..
vic,
It’s the human equivalent of going to a restaurant and having mutton served as lamb.
The sharks need to get a union!
GG
Lol!
victoria
Posted Saturday, February 1, 2014 at 9:00 pm | Permalink
Since when have surfers been wearing the wet suits that make them appear like seals swimming in the water?
————————-
its not the wet suit. Its to do with the shape of the outline.
We’ve all seen how white pointers attack, it’s shape of what’s on the surface from below against the light background. Irrespective of what a person is wearing they still appear as a dark shape against the light background of the sky from below
GG:
Barnett has taken a gamble. Shark attacks are random events that can be higher in frequency one year, only to be lower to non-existent the next year.
There is no evidence that shark culling will have a direct impact on the number of shark attacks in our waters, but if, in the case of the swinging statistical pendulum, it happens that this time next year we have had no shark attacks (as is just as likely with no shark cull program in place), Barnett will be able to claim credit for the culling program.
But what happens if there is another shark attack, or spate of shark attacks after the fuss and carry on with his culling program? That’s the gamble he’s taken.
AA
Yep, and surfers know this
http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/topics/science-environment/2014/01/shark-attacks-in-australia-a-timeline/
One could adjust for population and nets with the above if one wanted statistical evidence that nets saved or didn’t save lives.
…..just saying
BEWARE: Mod Lib / Everything will return @ 9am tomorrow morning for Insiders
Those wanting to be hypocrites should get it out of their system now as it won’t be tolerated in the morn when I am around! :devil:
[Lets see what happens when the monsoon is finished.
Must be soon if not about now?]
At least another 2 months to go. Can still get cyclones in April.
victoria:
A number of surfers have spoken out against Barnett’s shark cull.
🙂
Is Culling Sharks going to put Surf Live Saving into jeopardy?