UPDATE (Essential and Morgan): The fortnightly Morgan multi-mode poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3019 by face-to-face and SMS, shows little change on the primary vote, with the Coalition up half a point to 39.5%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11.5% and the Palmer United Party down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead is up half a point on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but the precise opposite happens on the previous election preferences measure. Today’s Essential Research moves a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. See bottom of post for further details.
GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, up to 53-47 from 52-48 in the December 15 poll. Primary votes are Coalition 39.8%, down from 41.4%; Labor 40.6%, up from 40.4%; and Greens 9.1%, up from 8.7%. The poll also has 20.3% reporting being better off since a year ago compared with 39.3% for worse off and 40.4% for neither. Prospectively, 23.5% expect to be better off in a year, 39.4% worse off and 37.1% neither. On the economy as a whole, 34.9% think it headed in the right direction and 39.3% in the wrong direction, with 25.8% undecided. A very similar question from Essential Research last week had 38% rating the economy as heading in the right direction versus 33% for the wrong direction, which while better than the ReachTEL results was a substantial deterioration on post-election findings which had it at 44% and 27%. These figures here courtesy of Ryan Moore on Twitter.
The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 3547. Full results will be available on the ReachTEL site tomorrow, which will apparently include personal ratings that have Tony Abbott up and Bill Shorten down. Stay tuned tomorrow for the weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Crikey reports Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. Also featured: privatisation deemed a bad idea by 59%, including 69% for Australia Post and 64% for the ABC and SBS; 24% think we spend too much on welfare, 41% too little and 27% about right; 64% believe the age pension too low, but only 27% think the same about unemployment benefits; 78% believe alcohol-related violence is getting worse, and perhaps also everything they see in the news media; “87% support harsher mandatory sentences for alcohol-related assaults; over 60% support earlier closing times for bottle shops, pubs and clubs; 76% support lockouts and 59% support lifting the age at which you can buy alcohol”. UPDATE: Full report here.
Unitary State@1994
Murdoch would probably be satisfied with control of the board. Oh, wait …
Player One @1997
Absolutely. Debt will always be higher under a Coalition government.
Fulvio Sammut@1995
😐
Is it possible for the High Court or Electoral Comission to ban political parties in Australia in any way?
AussieAchmed@1988
Actually AA, you keep repeating that but it is not correct.
They have simply raised the cap on what debt they can incur, not actually reached it.
That is a significant difference.
But be patient, they will get there. 👿
The high Court and the Electoral Commission have no legislative Powers, Unitary State.
Why do people give a shit what some online newspaper poll says again?
It gives comfort in the gloominess of night?
absolutetwaddle@2007
It’s not what it says, as much as that they feel obligated to rig the results.
[Isn’t the BBC semi-privatised and semi-government owned?]
No, it is fully publicly owned.
absolutetwaddle @2007
I normally don’t either. It just shocked me that in less than 4 hours, the level pf disagreement with abbotts remarks fell from 76% to 38%. Its not normal.
Fulvio Sammut @2008
That sucks. The Liberal Party needs to be banned for sacrificing our freedoms for the sake of entrenching themselves in power.
Unitary State@2011
Welcome to Abbott in Wonderland!
[The high Court and the Electoral Commission have no legislative Powers, Unitary State.]
The AEC does approve registration of a political party though, doesn’t it?
[Is it possible for the High Court or Electoral Comission to ban political parties in Australia in any way?]
I don’t think anyone in Australia has the power to ban a party in peacetime – in wartime the Defence Power can be used to ban any association, and this was done to the CPA and some fascist groups during WW2. A party could be prosecuted under ordinary criminal law if it engages in criminal activity (money-laundering, for example). The AEC could bar a party, or any individual candidate, from being able to nominate, but only if the AEC held that they had not complied with the terms of the Electoral Act.
Player One
“It’s not what it says, as much as that they feel obligated to rig the results.”
I’d characterise that as a misplaced sense of duty.
This would have to be the latest-finishing evening international cricket match ever. Nearly 11pm eastern and we are still going.
Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull has strongly defended the ABC’s editorial independence in the face of Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s attack on the national broadcaster
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/abbott-turnbull-clash-over-abc-20140129-31n5z.html#ixzz2rmsMgm5O
It just depends on the cyber booth the latest result came from, Unitary.
If it came from the Menzies House booth or the Young Liberal Sprogs booth there is bound to be some swing to the Coalition.
Unitary State
“I normally don’t either. It just shocked me that in less than 4 hours, the level pf disagreement with abbotts remarks fell from 76% to 38%. Its not normal.”
And a completely inaccurate picture of actual public opinion so again, who cares?
[Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull has strongly defended the ABC’s editorial independence in the face of Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s attack on the national broadcaster]
I make this the second time MT has undermined Abbott over something in as many months.
MagicPudding@2018
Hmmm, Movement at the Station ?
MagicPudding@2018
Fight! Fight! Gina vs Rupert! (I’d bet on Rupert)
Hockey is on his way to Howard’s back door as we speak …
Re the online Fairfax poll I kept a close watch on the results from 8:30pm until 10pm. In that time 22,000 votes were allegedly cast which was a surprising figure given that no more than 220 people were reading the article at any one time throughout that period. Moreover in that period the overall Yes vote changed from 47% to 62% which implies that the extra votes recorded in that period contained 88% Yes.
Young Liberals have had a busy evening I would say.
2015
Apart from the High Court`s finding of an implied right to freedom of political communication, is there anything stopping a state or territory (or the Commonwealth using the territory power) to ban a party in their state or territory?
Bolt knows Abbott won’t kill the ABC yet but he’s hoping if he can gain some support by carrying on like a headless chook that Abbott will reduce the ABCs funding.
Haydn @2025
Unnaceptable. They should hang their heads in shame.
Well not a bad day’s work from the LNP and its supporters:
Attack Abbott (Bolt)
Attack the ABC (Abbott)
Defend the ABC (Turnbull, Abetz)
Attack industry assistance (Hockey)
Support industry assistance (McFarlane)
Support Abbott (Bolt)
Then the Twitter scuttlebut and speculation …
Bishop throwing her hat in for a leadership challenge
Abbott and Credlin having an affair.
Just another calm, peaceful day under this no surprises Government
Its official: Abbott is worse than Howard. I only hope that his ineptitude will result in the death of conservatism in Australia.
Somehow, I am optimistic given that Labor is no longer so disunited and the guaranteed economic prosperity is soon coming to an end – which was Keating’s legacy but the coalition won the political capital for.
If Labor had won in 1996, I have no doubt they would still have been in power federally now.
A lot of things one finds to be inconceivable at age twenty are surprisingly commonplace at age sixty, Unitary.
[2018
MagicPudding
Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull has strongly defended the ABC’s editorial independence in the face of Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s attack on the national broadcaster
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/abbott-turnbull-clash-over-abc-20140129-31n5z.html#ixzz2rmsMgm5O ]
But is it open defiance and jostling for a looming leadership tussle, or the ol’ good cop – bad cop routine?
RE: Age Cyber Poll.
Media Manipulation 101
[Bishop throwing her hat in for a leadership challenge]
What?
[Abbott and Credlin having an affair.]
WHAT!?
I’m assuming there is some credence for both assertions, esp the latter.
Diogenes
“Bolt knows Abbott won’t kill the ABC yet but he’s hoping if he can gain some support by carrying on like a headless chook that Abbott will reduce the ABCs funding.”
I’m sceptical of the proposition the current government will make any substantive changes to the ABC. Side from some predictable and tiresome tinkering they’ll make a bit of noise and that’s about it.
Privatising anything, let alone something millions of Australians have grown up with in their homes and rightly identify as a cultural institution would lead to a backlash of quite remarkable proportions I imagine.
Fess 2034 I said it was Twitter scuttlebut and speculation, but really nothing would surprise me after the last three months ….
Fulvio Sammut @2031
which of my comments were you referring to?
I’m starting a petition asking that the ABC be condemned for not supporting Australia by not reporting that Leyton Hewitt and Sam Stosur won the Australian Open singles titles this year. They also didn’t report that Tony Abbott won the Tour de France.
Rossmore:
I’m willing to bet money (serious money) that there is no affair.
absolutetwaddle
Agree. I don’t think Abbott is dumb enough to really cut the ABC but that won’t stop Bolt etc from trying.
Dio:
And no sign of At Home with Tony either. In the interests of balance the ABC really should commission such a series for its primetime TV.
I rather wish you hadn’t made that comment, Just Me.
Much as I dislike both creatures involved, I think such comments are best left out.
Re Banning Political Parties
________________
In 1950 Menzies passed the ” Communist Partry Dissolution Act’ sought to ban the Communist Party of Australia
The High Court rejected this and stuck down the legislation.
Later Menzies went to the Privy Council in the UK but got the same result
This led in 1951 to the Referendum to entrench the provisions of Menzies legislation in the Constitution but the Referendum was defeated
Unitary, the one that expressed abhorrence at the stacking of polls.
[Privatising anything, let alone something millions of Australians have grown up with in their homes and rightly identify as a cultural institution would lead to a backlash of quite remarkable proportions I imagine.]
And especially in the country. It’s one of the paradoxes of politics that the ABC’s most devoted following is in the most conservative parts of country.
Haydn @2025
You only started watching halfway through the process. With about 20000 votes cast, it was 23% Yes, 77% No. The last 40000 votes were strongly one way, the opposite to the first 20000.
Abbott’s mental state has clearly deteriorated in recent years – moving from unstable to demented. Will Malcolm become Prince Regent while he is kept out of public view?
“The last 40000 votes were strongly one way”: Menzies House has probably upgraded it server.
Diog 2038 Or the stunning failure of the ABC to fairly report the recent international diplomatic breakthrough by the Australian PM in describing the Syrian civil war as a case of baddies v baddies.
MagicPudding @2046
How many Liberal Party members are there anyway? I would not put it above 70 000. For 40 000 to do that is just shocking.