UPDATE (Essential and Morgan): The fortnightly Morgan multi-mode poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3019 by face-to-face and SMS, shows little change on the primary vote, with the Coalition up half a point to 39.5%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11.5% and the Palmer United Party down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead is up half a point on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but the precise opposite happens on the previous election preferences measure. Today’s Essential Research moves a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. See bottom of post for further details.
GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, up to 53-47 from 52-48 in the December 15 poll. Primary votes are Coalition 39.8%, down from 41.4%; Labor 40.6%, up from 40.4%; and Greens 9.1%, up from 8.7%. The poll also has 20.3% reporting being better off since a year ago compared with 39.3% for worse off and 40.4% for neither. Prospectively, 23.5% expect to be better off in a year, 39.4% worse off and 37.1% neither. On the economy as a whole, 34.9% think it headed in the right direction and 39.3% in the wrong direction, with 25.8% undecided. A very similar question from Essential Research last week had 38% rating the economy as heading in the right direction versus 33% for the wrong direction, which while better than the ReachTEL results was a substantial deterioration on post-election findings which had it at 44% and 27%. These figures here courtesy of Ryan Moore on Twitter.
The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 3547. Full results will be available on the ReachTEL site tomorrow, which will apparently include personal ratings that have Tony Abbott up and Bill Shorten down. Stay tuned tomorrow for the weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Crikey reports Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. Also featured: privatisation deemed a bad idea by 59%, including 69% for Australia Post and 64% for the ABC and SBS; 24% think we spend too much on welfare, 41% too little and 27% about right; 64% believe the age pension too low, but only 27% think the same about unemployment benefits; 78% believe alcohol-related violence is getting worse, and perhaps also everything they see in the news media; “87% support harsher mandatory sentences for alcohol-related assaults; over 60% support earlier closing times for bottle shops, pubs and clubs; 76% support lockouts and 59% support lifting the age at which you can buy alcohol”. UPDATE: Full report here.
Bugler@1947
Such limitations don’t inhibit the rest of us. 😛
Dio
The ABCC cannot prosecute
I cannot for the life of me see how anyone can make such a basic mistake, especially in such a high profile case, and not have the mistake picked up by the typist, the paralegal, the supervising solicitor, the case manager or counsel.
There must be something more.
Meanwhile, at the cricket, Joe Root is playing in 61. A serious opportunity missed! 66 ,you tool. ROUT 66
Just a few hours ago, the smh poll had 76% dissagreeing with what Abbott had to say about the ABC.
Now it is 61% who agree with him.
WHAT THE HELL WENT ON THERE.
Centre
“If Thomson does win, this will expose Abbott as one who was prepared to frame and sacrifice almost anyone for his own grubby interests.”
Hahaha. He’s already PM mate, in no small part thanks to the exertions and ejaculations of your buddy Thomson.
If he does ‘get off’ (this time by virtue of decree than by compensated mouth or vagina) he’ll serve himself and the people he ripped off well by slinking into obscurity where he belongs.
Ah, Root 66
victoria@1952
In fact I believe it gets in the way of criminal investigations and prosecutions.
FS
[There must be something more.]
How so?
The Danny Green one punch ad is very good. Well done to whoever put it together.
Go William!
[A political analyst William Bowe says there are many reasons why the court might not order a re-election, including that the available ballots could be considered alongside computer modelling based on the first result.
Mr Bowe, who writes as ‘The Poll Bludger’, says there are options.
“You have to go back to 1906 to find the last time an entire state went back to the polls for a Senate election,” he said.
“The problem with a Senate election is you’ve got the entire state going back.
“So, I think as a practical matter, that makes it a lot more tempting for the High Court to try and come up with a solution that doesn’t involve all of this aggravation and expense, a big statewide election with over a million people voting.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-29/court-wraps-up-first-day-of-wa-senate-case/5226430?section=wa
McGowan finally speaking against the shark cull. He must be back from annual leave.
[ Told you, she wants to get rid of capitalism @ 1873 ]
Now, if only we could get rid of italicism here on PB.
Bugler @ 1947, I don’t mean this in any pejorative sense, but yours must be the most honest comment I have ever come across on PB.
[ Says if all the conservatives pull together “against the common enemy” (i.e. the ABC) the ABC will be history by the time of the next election. A distant memory. Gone, privatized, dead, buried and cremated. ]
Yup.
[I cannot for the life of me see how anyone can make such a basic mistake, especially in such a high profile case, and not have the mistake picked up by the typist, the paralegal, the supervising solicitor, the case manager or counsel.]
There would be a precedent or two around to rely on for a fraud on a credit card charge.
Can a ruling by the Court of Disputed Returns be appealed or is their decision final?
Unitary State@1955
A Murdoch/2gb initiated, redneck bootstrap
With the latest from Abbott on the ABC, might it not be a “look over there” distraction to be brought out when ever need be. Look how it’s taken the focus off all other issues for the moment. The next News Poll will be a new “look over there” from him
poroti – Been absent for a while.
[Porta porta portas]
Gone is the end game – just like defending the Wall.
Happy Birthday Kezza2! I love your posts. 🙂
Yesiree Bob @1968
What exactly do you mean?
I am dumbfounded how a poll can have over 40% of respondedents change their mind in less 4 hours
pom@1969
Quite the reverse, I think. Time will tell. Watch the money.
Unitary State@1972
MH and the like are voting numerous times
Bemused,
Despite hiding behind a pseudonym (not that it would really make a difference if I used my real name here), I don’t like being wrong, and try to avoid it where I can.
Confessions,
Or more cynically, the focus group research finally came through and were approved by shadow cabinet.
When discussing the Union corruption, has anyone considered the role of the companies that have offered to pay the bribes or willingly participated in the corruption for their own benefit?
Or companies that actively sought out union officials who are corrupt in order to gain a benefit for their company?
Victoria, professionally speaking, if the error is as simple as bringing a charge for an offence which does not exist, it is inconceivable that it went this far.
There must be some element that we do not know about, some evidence that has yet to be publicly disclosed or given, in short, something else.
I don’t know what it is, and I am only going on what has been stated on this blog today.
Abbott’s ABC outbursts sits uneasily with ideals of a robust democracy
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbotts-abc-outburst-sits-uneasily-with-ideals-of-a-robust-democracy-20140129-31mdl.html
Unitary State@1973
Well obviously they don’t.
But a whole lot more votes come in favouring the other side.
[Just a few hours ago, the smh poll had 76% dissagreeing with what Abbott had to say about the ABC.
Now it is 61% who agree with him.
WHAT THE HELL WENT ON THERE.]
I noticed that too. I suspect Bolt or some other RWL has posted a link for their ditto heads to vote. Or the libs have got a program to get all the fake facebook account emails they used to ‘like’ abbott’s FB page to vote.
pom:
I think it’s a distraction. Everything is going against them: international relationships, polling, Abbott’s unpopularity Abbott can’t appear in the Griffith by-election, sending JBishop instead to campaign with Glasson.
What better way to rally the rusted-ons, outrage the opponents, and change the focus than to attack the ABC?
FS
Evidence from the defence?
[Or more cynically, the focus group research finally came through and were approved by shadow cabinet.]
Yeah, probably.
victoria@1979
… but quite well with the idea of a “guided” democracy.
[ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guided_democracy ]
How ironic that the classic example of a “guided” democracy is … Indonesia!
Victoria, not necessarily. It’s just that something does not compute. Like 2 + 2 = 5.
FS
Fair enough
What better way to rally the rusted-ons, outrage the opponents, and change the focus than to attack the ABC?
==========
Perhaps we could discuss the Abbott Govt debt level?
It took Labor 6 years and the GFC to get a debt of around $270b.
It took the Abbott Govt around 3 months to add another $230b to that debt. At the that rate Abbott will have multi-trillion dollar debt in no time at all.
FS,
I try to be fair to everyone, including myself 😛 That means I sometimes have to cop the blame for being an argumentative, ignorant dickhead every now and then.
Yesiree Bob @1975
That is worrying. If so, the paradise we have here in Australia is being sacrificed for the sake of the concentration of power.
Bemused, take note. 🙂
One might ask too, in the case of Madoff, what end was served most by his drumhead 150-year sentence. Madoff’s crimes were serious but a sentence of 150 years is simply ludicrous.
Madoff’s sentence was what people here often label a unicorn. Madoff became the ‘scape unicorn’ for the perfidy of Wall Street in the eyes of ‘main street’. Had Madoff been given 10 years, there would have been demands for more show trials and perhaps people might have got it into their heads that there was indeed something fundamentally wrong with the rule go the 1%. Instead, Madoff got a notional 150 years and nobody else was gaoled or even IIRC charged. The state lent many of them money bailing them out, because as with Madoff’s spectacular punishment, the greater good of the boss class demanded it. Punishment was adduced to save the criminal system that invented Madoff and all of the financial WMDs.
People who fancy themselves as being in the left need to be more than a little careful of buying into the use of the weapons fashioned by the privileged classes, because these weapons were conceived to defend elite rule rather than to author social justice. One cannot pick up these tools and wield them in the service of the disempowered without reforging the chains that bind the disempowered to serve the boss class.
Fulvio Sammut@1991
Of what?
Isn’t the BBC semi-privatised and semi-government owned?
If the rednecks here can’t handle full government ownership, can’t they at least compromise for a 51 public – 49 private funding model or something. Having it totally privatised is BAD.
Nothing, nothing …
poor libs they can dish it out but cannot take … seems only yesterday they protested press freedom … malcolm you are toxic like the rest
[ It took Labor 6 years and the GFC to get a debt of around $270b.
It took the Abbott Govt around 3 months to add another $230b to that debt. At the that rate Abbott will have multi-trillion dollar debt in no time at all. ]
Debt levels will always be higher under a Coalition government?
Unitary State@1990
You got it, sickening, aint it ?
get rid of this mad petty tsar and his cronies and nostrodamus pell. i pray
DYAC
[was indeed something fundamentally wrong with the rule of the 1%]