ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, the slow-moving Essential Research also ticks a point in Labor’s favour, and Morgan records little change.

UPDATE (Essential and Morgan): The fortnightly Morgan multi-mode poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3019 by face-to-face and SMS, shows little change on the primary vote, with the Coalition up half a point to 39.5%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11.5% and the Palmer United Party down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead is up half a point on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but the precise opposite happens on the previous election preferences measure. Today’s Essential Research moves a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. See bottom of post for further details.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, up to 53-47 from 52-48 in the December 15 poll. Primary votes are Coalition 39.8%, down from 41.4%; Labor 40.6%, up from 40.4%; and Greens 9.1%, up from 8.7%. The poll also has 20.3% reporting being better off since a year ago compared with 39.3% for worse off and 40.4% for neither. Prospectively, 23.5% expect to be better off in a year, 39.4% worse off and 37.1% neither. On the economy as a whole, 34.9% think it headed in the right direction and 39.3% in the wrong direction, with 25.8% undecided. A very similar question from Essential Research last week had 38% rating the economy as heading in the right direction versus 33% for the wrong direction, which while better than the ReachTEL results was a substantial deterioration on post-election findings which had it at 44% and 27%. These figures here courtesy of Ryan Moore on Twitter.

The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 3547. Full results will be available on the ReachTEL site tomorrow, which will apparently include personal ratings that have Tony Abbott up and Bill Shorten down. Stay tuned tomorrow for the weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Crikey reports Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. Also featured: privatisation deemed a bad idea by 59%, including 69% for Australia Post and 64% for the ABC and SBS; 24% think we spend too much on welfare, 41% too little and 27% about right; 64% believe the age pension too low, but only 27% think the same about unemployment benefits; 78% believe alcohol-related violence is getting worse, and perhaps also everything they see in the news media; “87% support harsher mandatory sentences for alcohol-related assaults; over 60% support earlier closing times for bottle shops, pubs and clubs; 76% support lockouts and 59% support lifting the age at which you can buy alcohol”. UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,159 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 38 of 44
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  1. Rossmcg, you were referring to Jim D Re Mandurah lockup, were you not?

    Can’t remember what he did wrong, but the little I recall was that he was punished more for committing his offence as a member of the profession, than for the enormity of the offence itself.

  3. ru

    [Sorry this was Nov last year. How many thousands have Naptimes Keystone cops pissed against the wall?]

    I’d love to get a total on how much has been spent on FWA and the police and lawyers in total.

  4. Everything

    [Absolutely wrong. An individual can seal asylum. The driver of a boat is responsible for ensuring that all preparations for the trip are in order (enough fuel, enough food, enough lifejackets and the appropriate authorisation).]

    Misdirection … The boats aren’t being scuttled due to breaches of workplace safety. The scuttling is an irrational attempt to deter IMP.

  5. markjs@1833

    Confident prediction…

    Thomson will be found to have no case to answer…

    I think you are right as far as a criminal case goes.

    But the HSU may have a civil case against him to recover unauthorised expenditure. That is probably where it should have gone in the first place.

    Now, will Thomson have a claim for legal costs? They must be huge by now.

  6. [You could order that he live in an approved group home, with no access to anything but a trust account controlled by Corrections. That account would be open to public scrutiny. If he becomes non-compliant he goes into a higher security facility. He gets to work and keep modest sums to cover basic personal effects and food. Simple enough.]

    Be cheaper to have him in gaol

  7. Boerwar was extremely lucky to get away which what amounted to unfair and anti competitive behavior.

    His widowed wife still lives in the impressive mansion Raheen

  8. Apparently a business owner provided free building material to a union leader’s home renos.

    O dear what ever happened to done for a slab

  12. BK.

    [Was there a big union whistleblowing story on 7:30 tonight?]

    A builder who supposedly gave $10,000 worth of building supplies to Stetka, on threat of variously death or disruption of his business. From what little I heard I couldn’t make too much sense of it, (as I would hardly imagine it’s logical to kill someone providing you with members and therefore influence and revenue). I was preoccupied so wasn’t paying close attention, however. Kearney’s response to the claims weren’t as strong as I hoped. There were some pretty obvious and decisive responses she could have given Sales she didn’t

  17. CTar1 1770 – “usual Lib bull-sh#t”? – I dont understand.

    I was referring to the forecast maximum temperatures for the next 7 days. I think that will be getting close to 10 40+ days this year.

  20. Fulvio

    Thanks for the name. I was thinking it was someone else, we have had a few here over the years. The memory has trouble keeping up.

  22. Notice the words used by the News Ltd scum.

    [POLICE may have bungled the fraud case against Craig Thomson by charging him with the wrong offences, a court has heard.]

    The DPP charged him not the Police. The Police investigate.

  23. BW

    [I suspect that Fran’s idea of punishment is to force miscreants to listen to 100 hours of Greens Party policy discussions, without ear plugs, followed by 100 hours of the Koala suit begging routine.]

    Well I’m not an advocate of punishment, as you know, but if I were, they’d be listening to Abetz running off at the mouth, or perhaps talk radio. Then again, they might like that.

    There’s always yacht racing. That’s rugged viewing.

    All jokes aside though, it’s capitalism that is at the heart of injustice and inclusive governance that is key to abating the harm that it does both legally and illegally to the interests of working humanity. If one hates injustice, one should be less satisfied with punishing the rich as individuals than most of you seem to be, and much keener to find ways to empower the working people of the planet to shape the social system to their needs.

  25. FS

    [A drug dealer could have worked honestly all his life and amassed wealth in the form of savings, land, houses commercial properties, cars, boats etc. and after being convicted of one dealing offence involving a few thousand dollars or less can lose it all to the state.]

    I think the assets have to be “proceeds of crime” to be seized.

  26. Bemused…

    “But the HSU may have a civil case against him to recover unauthorised expenditure. That is probably where it should have gone in the first place”

    When Kathy Jackson has testified that Thomson’s credit card was part of his salary package …and there were NO rules governing use of credit cards issued by the HSU…

    Good luck with that 🙂

  31. [1680
    bemused

    Ridicule is a most powerful weapon and Whitlam used it to devastating effect on Billy McMahon.]

    Sure can be devastating in the right hands/mouth.

  32. Dio

    The police are notorious for not investigating that sort of stuff. In the same way that they are notorious for not investigating big time fraud. In the same way they ought to be notorious for the decades of failure to investigate effectively all the stuff that has come out of the RC. In the same way that the uniforms failed for decades to investigate effectively the thousands of cases of assault in the ADF.

    There is a pattern there somewhere.

  35. 1875

    I believe that all they have to prove is that a person has received proceeds of crime of said amount in order to seize it, even if, for example, the criminal proceeds have been spent and then new legitimate earnings have purchased the assets.

  42. OMFG !!!!!! After Richo giving Bowen a foot massage the most obnoxious peep in Oz meeja, Paul Murray, is slagging off Abbott’s ABC slag off. Phew , all is right with the world he now slags of unions.

  44. [1678
    daretotread

    I watched Julie B this morning. I felt a slight wisp of Leadership challenge. Still in its infancy but it is emerging.]

    JB and Hockey seem their least worst choices, all things considered. Both problematic, to put it mildly.

    The Libs have a leader they can’t keep, but can’t replace.

    What could go wrong?

  45. BK,

    No problem. I didn’t really intend to watch it but mum turned it back on. The AWU slush fund saga is probably what, more than anything, did it for me with 7.30. Don’t get the Age now for similar reasons.

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