Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The ever-reliable Essential Research still has the Coalition with its nose in front on two-party preferred, but down two points on the primary vote. However, expectations for the future of the economy and various other indicators paint a very worrying picture for the government.

Crikey reports that Essential Research, which looks like the only poll we’re getting this week, is once again unchanged on two-party preferred, with the Coalition leading 51-49. However, both parties are down on the primary vote, the Coalition by two points to 43% and Labor by one point to 37%, while the Greens are up one to 9% and the Palmer United Party is steady on 4%. It should be noted that this result compares a two-week average with last week’s debut figures derived from one week of polling only, so a two-point primary vote change from this notoriously stable series is less striking than it would be normally. Also featured are results on asylum seeker policy (broadly favourable to the government) and climate change (51% caused by human activity, 39% part of a normal fluctuation), on which more shortly.

UPDATE: Full Essential report here. Another figure to emerge is a deterioration in perceptions of the state of the economy, with the total good rating down six points since immediately after the election to 34% and poor up one to 26%. Thirty-eight per cent now believe it heading in the right direction, down six, against 33% for the wrong direction, up seven. Respondents were asked whether things would get better or worse under the Coalition government across a range of measures, with remarkable results – large majorities of respondents expecting pretty much everything to get worse, with the singular exception of company profits. The figures are worse across the board for the government than immediately after the election, most remarkably so in relation to unemployment (from a net rating of minus 10% to minus 23%) and cost of living (minus 13% to minus 35%).

On asylum seekers, only 30% believe most are genuine refugees against 47% who believe most are not, and 22% believe the government too tough versus 25% for too soft and 35% for taking the right approach. Fifty-two per cent think recent extreme temperatures likely to be related to climate change, versus 34% who think otherwise.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 25 of 29
1 … 24 25 26 … 29

  2. [It’s far from clear why they should, in effect, imprison non-nationals on their territory just to suit the sensibilities of reactionaries on Australia’s urban fringes.

    Fran this is low quality stuff you’re spouting here. I expected better from you.]

    I think this is both 100% correct and high quality – perhaps a little obvious. What kind of idiot could see it as obvious?

  4. 1. No lies. Plenty of lies.
    2. No surprises. Plenty of surprises – all downside.
    3. No pathetic excuses. Dozens of pathetic excuses.
    4. More transparency. Less transparency. In some cases no transparency at all.
    5. More accountability. Less accountability. In some cases, no accountability at all.
    6. You can trust Abbott. You can’t trust Abbott. This at least has the virtue of not being a surprise.
    7. Downward pressure on the COL. The cost of living is going up, up, up.
    8. 200,000 jobs per annum. Jobs are being destroyed. Abbott now has to generate 230,000 jobs in eight months to stay on track.
    9. Surplus in real time. Surplus has disappeared over the horizon.
    10. Good relations with Indonesia.

    Running score for the Abbott Government: zero out of ten.

  6. The crazies are really out in force tonight.

    I mean, yeah, lets go and bomb Indonesia to dust. That wouldn’t possibly have any international repercussions. No, not at all.

  8. It was the LSLs and ESJs of the world who gave us lost wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

    Which reminds me. I trust they alter the Afghanistan casualty figures to include Mackay. That war killed him as surely as if an IED had killed him. His sacrifice should be honoured appropriately.

  9. Rossmcg 1199

    I have tweeted them also, I know someone from fairfax read tweets as they have answered my tweets a couple of times, but not this time 😀

  10. I’m still waiting for Leisure Suit Larry to explain to us dullards the nature of these wondrous cultural values that make our soldiers so much better than Indonesia’s.

    Anyone?

  16. Boer war all this anger towards tony ? Do you ever feel like taking direct action to stop this ? Feel like the labor party isn’t doing enough to stop tone ? There are people you can talk to about these feelings before it’s too late!

  17. Proceedings adjourned at ICJ. Oz to reply later today. Missed Sir Eli’s submission. Timorese Foreign Minister spoke well. Judge Donohue had three further questions for Oz which I took to imply he was not looking sympathetically on the Oz legal argument. His final question was WTTE, what documents held by Oz overseas missions’legal reps should be considered immune from interference/seizure by the host State… I am swinging to the view that this is not looking good for Oz and an adverse ruling more likely. There again I could just be hostage to the eloquence of the legal arguments on show.

    Almost as good as Rumpole….

  20. [Agree, I thought Fran’s comment was short & to the point. Obviously hit a nerve with the Suit.]

    Fran knows what was wrong with her comment, she knew it before she even posted it. She is a horrible entity, but smarter than you dills.

  21. ESJ:

    You are hardly in a position to lecture other commenters about anger issues given you want Australia to go caveman on Indonesia and start bombing people over there.

  26. I’m also wondering what the justification under international law might be for Australia initiating military action against Indonesia? Exactly what threat does the Indonesian government represent to the Australian government that would give Australia the right to initiate military action? Sadly we are perilously close to the reverse situation – where it would be lawful for the Indonesian government to launch defensive attacks against military incursions by Australian naval vessels into Indonesian territorial waters.

  27. [Boer war all this anger towards tony ? Do you ever feel like taking direct action to stop this ? Feel like the labor party isn’t doing enough to stop tone ? There are people you can talk to about these feelings before it’s too late!

    by Edward StJohn on Jan 22, 2014 at 9:10 pm]

    You old Abbott lover, you; he’s all your’s pal. A word of advice: watch your back.

  30. ESJ and LSL don’t like facts again tonight.

    Since September 7th, it has all been Abbott’s fault, and even in Opposition, has been Abbott’s fault.

    When you trash talk your own country, then go into power, then trash talk other countries, you only got yourself to blame.

    Some pro-tips for you ESJ, stop blaming others.

  34. LSL

    “She is a horrible entity, but smarter than you dills.”

    Come on LSL, you’re in no position to call others dills. You still haven’t written one intelligent thing.

    AND you still haven’t outlined your case why we should be turning back boats.

  37. Asha Leu @1210

    ” I’m still waiting for Leisure Suit Larry to explain to us dullards the nature of these wondrous cultural values that make our soldiers so much better than Indonesia’s.

    Anyone? ”

    We, the Australians, are the goodies. They, the Indonesians, are the baddies.

    I understand that the reasoning may be a bit above LSL and others level of understanding, but, dammit, if Tone says it it must be right.

  41. Much wailing and gnashing of teeth on Ch9 news tonight, as, woe and thrice woe, inflation/interest rates are on their way up.

    No more cheaper mortgages and cheaper imports – and, it is all the government’s fault!

    Some money bright spark pointed out while 1.8% of the increased inflation came from the private sector, it was government charges which are the real villain.

    Of course, back in the “bad old days” it would have been either Gillard or Rudd to blame.

    The Big End of Town can’t quite bring themselves to blame Abbott yet, but they have got as far as “It’s all the government’s fault” which is one step short of “It’s all Abbott’s fault”.

    Meanwhile that blow-hard of a Treasurer – the one who in Opposition was whinge, moan and blame personified, is totally invisible today. And where is the Finance Minister? In fact, anybody?

    So much falling to pieces in such a short time.

  43. [Meanwhile that blow-hard of a Treasurer – the one who in Opposition was whinge, moan and blame personified, is totally invisible today. And where is the Finance Minister? In fact, anybody?

    So much falling to pieces in such a short time.

    by Tricot on Jan 22, 2014 at 9:22 pm ]

    Ummm he surfaced briefly to explain that Labor’s carbon tax was still having an impact.

  45. [Exactly what threat does the Indonesian government represent to the Australian government ]

    By not doing what Tones wants them to do, after Tones assured every one that they would do just what he wants them to do, they are making him, and his Govt, look like fools.

    Well, they are actually fools, but now their dignity has been impugned. Shock Horror.

  46. @1241 Good point, haven’t seen Boxhead for a while. He must be waiting for Cap Hill to get going again. I’m sure he & Wonder Woman have a thing. 😉

  48. [The only people talking about war are some PB’ers with very vivid imaginations.

    by davidwh on Jan 22, 2014 at 9:28 pm]

    Incorrectomundo.

    You appear to have missed various developments in Indonesia.
    You also appear not to have read the posts of LSL and EsJ.

  49. The depreciation of the AUD was always going to impact the CPI. This together with the weather impact on fresh food takes care of most of the increase.

Comments Page 25 of 29
1 … 24 25 26 … 29

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *