Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The ever-reliable Essential Research still has the Coalition with its nose in front on two-party preferred, but down two points on the primary vote. However, expectations for the future of the economy and various other indicators paint a very worrying picture for the government.

Crikey reports that Essential Research, which looks like the only poll we’re getting this week, is once again unchanged on two-party preferred, with the Coalition leading 51-49. However, both parties are down on the primary vote, the Coalition by two points to 43% and Labor by one point to 37%, while the Greens are up one to 9% and the Palmer United Party is steady on 4%. It should be noted that this result compares a two-week average with last week’s debut figures derived from one week of polling only, so a two-point primary vote change from this notoriously stable series is less striking than it would be normally. Also featured are results on asylum seeker policy (broadly favourable to the government) and climate change (51% caused by human activity, 39% part of a normal fluctuation), on which more shortly.

UPDATE: Full Essential report here. Another figure to emerge is a deterioration in perceptions of the state of the economy, with the total good rating down six points since immediately after the election to 34% and poor up one to 26%. Thirty-eight per cent now believe it heading in the right direction, down six, against 33% for the wrong direction, up seven. Respondents were asked whether things would get better or worse under the Coalition government across a range of measures, with remarkable results – large majorities of respondents expecting pretty much everything to get worse, with the singular exception of company profits. The figures are worse across the board for the government than immediately after the election, most remarkably so in relation to unemployment (from a net rating of minus 10% to minus 23%) and cost of living (minus 13% to minus 35%).

On asylum seekers, only 30% believe most are genuine refugees against 47% who believe most are not, and 22% believe the government too tough versus 25% for too soft and 35% for taking the right approach. Fifty-two per cent think recent extreme temperatures likely to be related to climate change, versus 34% who think otherwise.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. [There is little doubt that the Australian airforce and navy would quickly destroy their Indonesian equivalents]

    Not really if the Indonesians play smart. We have no submarines in service. They have about a dozen equipped with supersonic anti ship missiles.

    Knock out the ANZAC class frigates, whats left?

  2. [As an ex-serviceman, and with family currently serving, I find myself almost crying when I read how quickly people are willing to believe, without any evidence, allegations against our troops.]

    The extremely sad thing is that Morrison and Abbott are deliberately allowing the electorate to believe that our serving personnel are treating asylum seekers improperly. That is, illegal immigrants on boats deserve all that is done to them.

    At the same time Morrison is effectively claiming that Navy personnel are incompetent for entering Indonesian waters.

  3. Boerwar may be able to add to this comment, but it’s my understanding that Indonesian military doctrine has always been built on self defence, with a primary focus on internal security. Remember that it has around 450,000 military personnel. The idea of an Australian war with Indonesia is beyond laughable. How on earth would our military of 50,000 subdue a patriotic and nationalistic nation of 250 million with land forces 10 times the size of our own forming the backbone of localised resistance? And it would be illegal under international law. We could expect no support from any of our allies. Indeed we could expect Indonesia to get military support from Indonesia’s ASEAN allies. We would be an international pariah. Our international trade and domestic economy would collapse under the sanctions imposed on us. All I can say of LSL is he has demonstrated an almost incomprehensible level of stupidity. There is no conceivable end game except utter humiliation for Australia from a war with Indonesia over asylum seeker policy.

  4. Just like Tampa and all the other “SIEV’s” there will be other “evidence” as the Navy films all these boardings. whether we get to see it is another thing. Using the navy for grubby political ends sounds all too familiar!!

  5. I think it might be time to consider threatening in private bombing runs of illegal asylum camps in Indonesia so the message gets home to the smugglers and Jakarta that we aren’t going to cop this anymore.

    I don’t think these people will put the Aussie tourist currency at risk somehow. Just time to get blunt.

  6. [It could have just as easily been self inflicted in order to gain the sympathetic reaction it appears to be getting, or to paint our troops as the thugs, bullies and just plain cruel.
    ]

    We are evaluating the evidence we have. Morrison is automatically completely lacking in credibility and is trying to deny the Navy did something while they were doing something else he will not confirm or deny.

    They allegations have been made and Morrison chose to abuse those making them rather than refute them. When I indulge in that kind of behavior here someone is certain to correctly point out that resorting to abuse is a strong sign I have no argument. It is not us that is damaging the navy it is Morrison and his pet liberal general with their political farce.

  7. Edward StJohn@1108

    I think it might be time to consider threatening in private bombing runs of illegal asylum camps in Indonesia so the message gets home to the smugglers and Jakarta that we aren’t going to cop this anymore.

    I don’t think these people will put the Aussie tourist currency at risk somehow. Just time to get blunt.

    Words fail me.

  8. [We possess cultural values which make our military far more effective than that of a country like Indonesia,]

    And just what ‘cultural values’ are they Larry ?
    That we’re white and they’re brown ?

  9. [ Simple really. When will the ADF tell the Immigration Minister to F Off as he has no constitutional powers over their actions. ]

    Indeed – when will the defence minister defend the ADF, when will he even exercise control over the ADF.

  10. [Outsider

    Boerwar may be able to add to this comment, but it’s my understanding that Indonesian military doctrine has always been built on self defence, with a primary focus on internal security. Remember that it has around 450,000 military personnel. The idea of an Australian war with Indonesia is beyond laughable. How on earth would our military of 50,000 subdue a patriotic and nationalistic nation of 250 million with land forces 10 times the size of our own forming the backbone of localised resistance? And it would be illegal under international law. We could expect no support from any of our allies. Indeed we could expect Indonesia to get military support from Indonesia’s ASEAN allies. We would be an international pariah. Our international trade and domestic economy would collapse under the sanctions imposed on us. All I can say of LSL is he has demonstrated an almost incomprehensible level of stupidity. There is no conceivable end game except utter humiliation for Australia from a war with Indonesia over asylum seeker policy.

    by Outsider on Jan 22, 2014 at 7:38 pm]

    IMHO, Australia would win the mainforce naval and air battles by a significant margin.

    We could probably achieve local and temporary superiority by land in parts of the archipelago.

    We would be utterly defeated in any attempt to occupy Indonesia over time. Nor could Indonesia invade Australia. PNG and East Timor might become a proxy theatres of war.

    Indonesia has demonstrated remarkable lasting power in various internal conflicts. There is little doubt that islamism and nationalism would quickly cohere. The real long term issue would probably be whether Indonesia would consent to a ceasefire and a peace. Both our economies would be severely damaged. Australia is much more trade dependent than Indonesia. Indonesia straddles our major economic routes.

    Lose/lose.

  11. Indonesia is povo – none of you lot have ever visited or if you haven’t got out of the Bali villa resort of your travel agents choice.

  12. AA. They wouldn’t. Look at Chapter 6 of the United Nations charter. If Australia attacked Indonesia, it would be an illegal war. Indonesia’s actions in its own defence would be legal. We would be in WW3 territory. Except the rest of the world would be on Indonesia’s side, not ours.

  13. [I think it might be time to consider threatening in private bombing runs of illegal asylum camps in Indonesia so the message gets home to the smugglers and Jakarta that we aren’t going to cop this anymore.

    I don’t think these people will put the Aussie tourist currency at risk somehow. Just time to get blunt.

    by Edward StJohn on Jan 22, 2014 at 7:40 pm]

    Who let the war loonies loose? What ‘illegal asylum camps’?

  14. [Words fail me.]

    And me. I think it’s hilarious yet at the same time disturbing that Liberal shills were keen to attack the then Labor govt for supposedly risking out strategic relationships with other countries, yet are now going all caveman on Indonesia because it’s now a Liberal govt.

  15. I don’t know what happened to the asylum seekers with the burns. I find it hard to credit that Australian Navy personnel deliberately inflicted them and it seems hard to believe that it was self harm. It’s also hard to imagine that it could have been accidental.

    I give no credibility to Morrison’s bluster. This incident needs to be investigated, the results made known to the Australian public without fear or favour and wrongdoers, if any, identified and charged.

  16. p

    Yes, true, but we would achieve cyber dominance and air dominance and that would basically decide the mainforce naval/air battle outcomes.

    Whether that happens or not, the inevitable outcome is a military stalemate.

  17. Of course, being ‘povo’ (you charmer) might be a very good incentive to invade a rich country. Particularly one which would (to their eyes) look a little under populated.

  18. “I think it might be time to consider threatening in private bombing runs of illegal asylum camps in Indonesia so the message gets home to the smugglers and Jakarta that we aren’t going to cop this anymore.

    I don’t think these people will put the Aussie tourist currency at risk somehow. Just time to get blunt.

    Ohhh great, MORE stupidity…

    ESJ, can you summarise what the problem with asylum seekers coming here by boat is? You’re comtrade LSL was unable too, or more correctly to fearful/cowardly. So will you man up and outline your case against?

  19. Boerwar I agree with your analysis. The naval/air war would be over quickly. Land occupation is a different matter altogether, and exactly what Indonesian defence doctrine is all about: self defence. It is why Indonesia has no offensive capabilities of its own (leaving East Timor to one side, which was so heavily one-sided as not to count, and involved movements of troops across land, not sea, with Australian and US acquiescence).

  20. AA

    [It could have just as easily been self inflicted in order to gain the sympathetic reaction it appears to be getting, or to paint our troops as the thugs, bullies and just plain cruel.]

    That’s conceivable, just as it’s conceivable that people who cry rape may be making it up or children who allege abuse are lying to serve some other end, but until one can show that this is so, we ought to entertain them, and in this case, more sympathetically than we would if Australia had not declared “war on boats” and shown a determination to back criminal conduct wherever it was alleged.

  21. Forgot the title of the video. “The Truth About the Useless F-35 & F-22 ” . A war game exercise of Migs verses our planes was described as “It was like clubbing baby seals” ………..oh and we were the baby seals.

  22. The strong do what they will the weak do what they must. We are the former Indonesia is the later. Let’s drop the pretence Otherwise.

  23. I can’t quite believe there are people posting here who think it would be a good idea to have a shooting war with Indonesia.
    I’ve personally no real knowledge of the logistics, but really, is that the point?
    A shooting war with Indonesia is a good idea?
    Edward St. John, you think people are going to go off to Indonesia for a holiday if we’re on a war footing with them?

  24. [I’ve got a little on Murray to beat Federer to open the tennis betting innings for 2014]

    And I’m hoping Federer can get another crack at a Grand Slam. He seems a really nice chap.

  25. ESJ

    “Indonesia is povo – none of you lot have ever visited or if you haven’t got out of the Bali villa resort of your travel agents choice.”

    Well, yes. I lived in Jakarta for 6 months. There is alot of poverty. Not sure why we have to bomb them though.

  26. This is a rather long post. It is a transcript from yesterdays ICJ hearing … specifically the series of questions asked of the two parties at the end of the hearing. Judge Greenwood’s (USA) questions seem to me to be the critical ones.

    The relevant parties respond to the questions today. Timor LÉste is up first shortly.
    Judge BENNOUNA: I thank you, Mr. President. My question is addressed to the Australian delegation and it is as follows:
    “Can the Australian Delegation explain to the Court why the search warrant was delivered on 2 December 2013 and executed on 3 December, i.e., two days before the first hearing of the Arbitral Tribunal, held on 5 December 2013?”
    Judge CANÇADO TRINDADE: Thank you very much, Mr. President. My question is addressed to both Parties, Timor-Leste and Australia.
    “What is the impact of a State’s measures of alleged national security upon the conduction of arbitral proceedings between the Parties? In particular, what is the effect or impact of seizure of documents and data, in the circumstances of the present case, upon the settlement of an international dispute by negotiation and arbitration?”
    Judge YUSUF: Thank you, Mr. President. My question is also addressed to both Parties. I
    would like to ask them the following question:
    “In the view of the Parties, to whom did the individual items listed in the ASIO Property Seizure Record of 3 December 2013 and their contents belong at the time of their seizure?”
    Judge DONOGHUE: Thank you, Mr. President.
    “I have two questions for Australia about the Undertaking of the Attorney-General provided to the Court today.
    My first question relates to the chapeau that begins the paragraph on page 2. I seek to clarify the significance of the first ‘or’ on line 1 of page 2. Under what circumstances would the undertaking of the Attorney-General expire prior to this Court’s Judgment?
    My second question also relates to the paragraph on page 2. I seek to clarify the relationship between subparagraph (3) and subparagraph (4), in light of the fact that subparagraph (4) begins with the phrase ‘without limiting the above’. If Australia wishes, for ‘national security purposes’, to provide the material or information derived from the material to a part of the Australian Government that has responsibility for the matters described in subparagraph (4), could it do so consistent with the Undertaking?”
    Judge GREENWOOD: Thank you, Mr. President. My question is for Australia and it also relates to the terms of the new undertaking that was put before the Court today. The question is in two parts:
    “(1) Does Australia undertake that no information derived from the documents seized or from notes made in the course of the execution of the search warrant has already been communicated to any person involved in the arbitration proceedings or any person who might be involved in negotiations relating to the matters referred to in paragraph 4 of that undertaking?
    (2) In the event of a prosecution in Australia, will any of the documents seized or information derived from those documents be disclosed in court in such a way that those documents or that information will be likely to come to the notice of persons involved in the arbitration, in the proceedings in this Court or in any negotiations of the kind to which I have referred?”

  27. Boerwar

    Re “cyber dominance” .Not so likely as they will be using crazy Ivan stuff. Makes it way less likely that crud like Falklands and Gulf War I weapons codes being dropped slipped to their mates.

  28. ESJ

    and why stop at Indonesia? We could take on New Guinea too! And then the Philipines… Range up and cane Taiwan… Expand into Malaysia… The world is yours.

  29. I’m with you HSO.
    All such talk is just plain madness.
    Even assuming Australia ‘won’, what kind of a victory would it be?
    It would ensure a generation or more of resentment and hostility between Australia and Indonesia.
    No thanks.
    There should be an immediate end to the antics of Abbott and Morrison.

  30. Some of you are living in the last century. We don’t want some sort of protracted ground war with Indonesia. We don’t want an invasion of their crappy islands.

    I was thinking more that we would utterly destroy their navy and air force and then bomb their infrastructure until they cried for mercy.

  31. Fran
    than we would if Australia had not declared “war on boats” and shown
    ==========================

    The pathetic xenophobic, red neck, racist Abbott and his cronies declared “war” on the boats

  32. [We don’t want the illegals. Time to act pretty simple astrobleme]

    They considered the refugees on the St Louis as illegal, we didn’t want them either.

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