Seat of the week: Makin

Held by the Liberals throughout the Howard years, the north-eastern Adelaide seat of Makin swung heavily to Labor in 2007 and 2010, and remains firmly in the party fold despite the 2013 election defeat.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The north-eastern Adelaide seat of Makin extends from Pooraka near the city to Tea Tree Gully and Greenwith at the limits of the metropolitan area. Labor is especially strong in the areas nearer the city, from Walkley Heights north to Salibsury East, beyond which are generally newer suburbs with more mortgage payers and families, who have helped keep the Liberals competitive or better for most of the seat’s history. Together with Kingston in the south of the city and Wakefield in its outer north, Makin is one of three Adelaide seats which the Liberals held in the final term of the Howard government before blowing out to double-digit Labor margins at the 2010 election, and which remain securely in the Labor fold despite the 2013 election defeat. In Makin’s case the Labor margin reached 12.0% in 2010, before the 2013 swing reduced it to 5.1%.

Makin was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 from an area that had mostly formed the southern end of the safe Labor seat of Bonython, the majority of which was in turn absorbed by Wakefield when it was abolished in 2004. It was held for Labor by uncomfortable margins from 1984 to 1996 by Peter Duncan, a former Attorney-General in Don Dunstan’s state government. A 4.8% swing put Duncan on the Keating government casualty list in 1996, and he returned to the headlines in 2007 after being charged with fraudulently obtaining government grants for his plastics recycling company. The seat was then held for the Liberals by Trish Draper, who emerged as a prime ministerial favourite after strong performances at the next two elections. A swing against Draper of 0.2% in 1998 compared with a statewide swing of 4.2%, and she consolidated her margin by 3.0% in 2001. Draper hit trouble in the lead-up to the 2004 election when it emerged she had breached parliamentary rules by taking a boyfriend on a study trip to Europe at taxpayers’ expense, but she survived by 0.9% in the face of a swing that was not reflected in neighbouring seats. Draper retired at the 2007 election citing an illness in the family, before unsuccessfully attempting a comeback in the state seat of Newland at the March 2010 election.

The seat was then won for Labor on the second attempt by Tony Zappia, who had been the mayor of Salisbury since 1997, a councillor for many years beforehand, and was at one time a weightlifting champion. Zappia was widely thought to have been a victim of his factional non-alignment when the Right’s Julie Woodman defeated him for preselection in 2001, and a repeat performance appeared on the cards when a deal ahead of the 2004 election reserved the seat for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left”. The arrangement displeased local branches as well as party hard-heads concerned that a crucial marginal seat should be contested by the most appealing candidate, and Premier Mike Rann successfully prevailed upon Wortley’s backers to throw their weight behind Zappia. The move appeared a dead end for Zappia in the short term as he proved unable to win the seat, whereas Wortley was elected from the number three Senate position she was offered as consolation. However, Zappia performed considerably better with the electoral breeze at his back in 2007, demolishing the 0.9% Liberal margin with a swing of 8.6%. This was achieved in the face of a high-impact publicity campaign by Liberal candidate Bob Day, housing tycoon and national president of the Housing Industry Association who has since been elected as a Senator for Family First.

The once non-aligned Zappia is now a member of the Left, and is believed to have been a backer of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenges, and of Anthony Albanese over Bill Shorten in the post-election leadership contest. After spending the period in government on the back bench, he won promotion after the election defeat to shadow parliamentary secretary for manufacturing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,400 comments on “Seat of the week: Makin”

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  1. The description of Sir Elihu Lauterpacht in “Leisure Suit Larry”s earlier post as “some foreigner” is pretty special.

    Sir Elihu among many other things was counsel for Australia in the nuclear tests case as some here may remember.

  2. GG disagree… Grid iron is a great game … The constant ad interruptions aint the games fault. I also love the college bowls. Gives a side of America we rarely see

  3. Note for Newspoll conspiracy theorists – in 2011 (not long after an election) Newspoll did not emerge from hibernation til Feb 4-6. Not looking good tonight, next week’s a public holiday; I reckon the week after there should be one.

  4. Graham Morris on Sky Agenda, the LNP stooge who said that Gillard should be kicked to death, fully supports Abbott’s turning back the boats. The “crooks” on the boats should be turned away he exclaimed.

    Cool Rossmore, here is your chance to be the PB Gridiron expert 🙂

  5. If the Aus Gov were smart it would hand over the seized documents and apologize to E Timor. But it wont happen, and Aus will be humiliated in an international tribunal behaving like some some third world tin pot dictatorship. Good on ya Brandis, all your own work. Resign now,

  6. Centre happy to assume the PB grid iron correspondent mantle, altho in truth I known next to nothing, but consider it a great game with a similar pedigree to AFL, soccer and rugby.

  7. LSL,

    [Are we meant to enjoy the sight of some foreigner slagging off our country?]

    Gad, sir! I couldn’t agree more with you, sir!

    You’ve surely hit the dago on the head with that one, sir! Yes, damn those foreigners, sir! Send ‘em packing, I say!

    And as for that other foreigner cad…whatshisname…born overseas…England I think…who is telling us, “less Jerilderie and more Jakarta…” – the bounder! Should be flogged, I say!

    Toodle-pip, old boy – if you’re in the Officers’ Bar this evening, I’ll shout you a Bintang…brewed in Bondi, I believe…

  8. Marrickville Mauler @ 1203: LSL seems to be maintaining the jejune traditions which some of his/her fellow thinkers have established here.

    I don’t know what arguments Australia will produce in the ICJ tomorrow, but the atmospherics are interesting. From what I’ve heard from some in the business, international law is highly specialised, and the top advocates – like Sir Eli Lauterpacht, Vaughn Lowe, the late Ian Brownlie and the like – are held in high regard by the Court (as was obvious when Sir Eli was speaking today) because they are all from the same community of scholars. I see Australia is being represented by the Solicitor-General, who no doubt is a fine lawyer, but not to my knowledge a specialist in international law. I’m not sure if Professor Crawford is part of the team for this case (he’s certainly a top flight scholar too). The SMH said that Australia had a team of 16 lawyers there, but it’s hard to know how many are bag carriers. I have my doubts as to whether the Australian legal team will understand the collective mind of the Court as well as the Timor-Leste team. (And the appointment of Ian Callinan as the ad hoc judge nominated by Australia might suggest a certain pessimism. As far as I know he was never regarded as a great international lawyer, of the type whose views would potentially sway those of other judges; so maybe Senator Brandis is just hoping to be confident of at least one sympathetic listener.)

  9. Guytaur

    What is going on in Nauru?

    Why doesn’t Morrison pick up the phone and ask them why they don’t like Abbott anymore 😆

    Rossmore, it’s safe to assume you know more than Diog.

    *knock yourselves out

  10. Centre

    Anytime a government interferes in the indpendence of the judiciary it does not look good for that countrie’s democracy.

    Goodnight.

  11. Nauru has a population of less than 10000 according to wikipedia.

    Expecting what amounts to being a mid-sized country town to sustain the institutions of a fully functional country is a bit much.

    The only reason most of us even know Nauru exists is because Howard looked around for, and found, a compliant, broke, kind-of-state that was willing to do whatever Howard asked them to for the right amount of money.

    The rest, as they say, is history.

  12. Disappointed is one word for it. Others are probably increasingly shattered.

    For example, he is reputed to have described the fires of recent days as the events of just another Summer. Effectively, he’s told everyone – including those who have lost loved ones, houses, pets and livestock – to suck it up while ignoring the obvious effects of climate change in accentuating the heat waves to which we are inevitably prone.

    Likewise, he suggested that Holden workers facing redundancy should see their impending losses as “liberation” while foreshadowing moves to dismantle Medicare and Commonwealth funding of public education. He has also made clear he intends to take science, energy and environmental policy back to the 1920′s and the politics of the MDB back to the 1800′s.

    He is not a disappointment. He is a tragedy for this country.

    ——–said better than one might hope to

  13. does anyone feel the big vaunted claims on boats is too good to be true …. he is the dyke waiting to burst over abbotsville a) indonesia stops naval boats returning boats b) the new boats given to smugglers will simply come back to waters they left c) where will thousands released from NG go but eventually to mainland … once to navy’s bluff is called it’ll be a flood. the navy is already sensitive to media. it is of course a disgrace our navy is being used in this way

  14. geoffrey,
    [For example, he is reputed to have described the fires of recent days as the events of just another Summer. Effectively, he’s told everyone – including those who have lost loved ones, houses, pets and livestock – to suck it up while ignoring the obvious effects of climate change in accentuating the heat waves to which we are inevitably prone.]

    Shorter Abbott: ‘Shit happens.’

  15. [Barry pussies out on Daily Telegraph.]

    Hmmm … Looks like the DT is stilling running his lines for him. In a fantasy world I fancy waking up and discovering that people are now sneering at Laura Norder as reactionary nonsense. Well one can dream …

  16. puff

    wasn’t there a rumour about a split?
    its all gloves off with this moron and his sexist hypocrisy
    this is not france (unfortunately)

  17. [Barry pussies out on Daily Telegraph.

    Hmmm … Looks like the DT is stilling running his lines for him. In a fantasy world I fancy waking up and discovering that people are now sneering at Laura Norder as reactionary nonsense. Well one can dream …]

    OK consider me up to date, I assume really really stupid tabloids and liberals start on the same page on ridiculous law and order issues … the implication is the tele dragged Barry into this stupidity. I suppose it is possible Barry is smarter than your average bear hey boo boo.

  18. Greetings, Bludgers, I just got back to Bangkok after a fun week in Burma, a trip I sadly had to cut short when I got a severe case of “Burma belly” from the local food. Still, it was very interesting and I learned a lot. Visiting Rangoon is a bit like visiting 7th century Rome. It’s full of grand British Empire buildings, most of them empty and crumbling, while the Burmese use the ground floors to sell food and repair motor bikes and run chickens. Some money is now starting to come in as sanctions are partly lifted, but the basic infrastructure is still woefully deficient.

    But what I wanted to say mostly is, WHAT a pity it was that Fran and Deblonay and Swamprat and various others here couldn’t come to Burma with me. They would have loved to see the fine fruits of 60 years of socialism, in which the heroic Burmese workers and peasants lived on rationed rice and anti-imperialist slogans, and not much else. Lucky Burmese, spared the horrors of capitalism all these years!

    Nearly everyone in Burma is equally poor, which is the essence of socialist virtue (except the generals and party grandees, of course, who have made fortunes off corrupt deals with Chinese banks and Thai timber firms, and used forced labour to serve their customers). I suggest that Fran and her fellow Bludger Socialists make the trip to Rangoon before it’s too late to see this socialist utopia in its unspoiled state. (Hint: take your own food, toilet paper and insect spray.)

  19. very interesting

    http://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/video/99545155992/Persons-Of-Interest
    [
    Persons Of Interest S1 Ep1

    Aired – 7 January 2014 on SBS ONE Expires – 6 February 2014, 9:30pm

    In each episode of this new Walkley-nominated series, a ‘person of interest’ is given their previously secret ASIO intelligence file and asked to explain the allegations contained in it. The program unravels a unique personal, political and cultural history of Australia that still resonates in a world gripped by controversial figures like Edward Snowden and Julian Assange. The series uncovers never-before-seen photographs and covert surveillance film recorded by ASIO. Tonight’s premiere episode features author and journalist Roger Milliss. The Milliss family was gradually torn apart as father and son, both Communists, argued the differing paths to Socialism. (Part 1 of 4) (From Australia) (Documentary) PG CC

    ]

  20. Actually Adam your wrong on Burma , it looks like socialism it’s actually the Jews, deblonay explained the nature of the Zionist conspiracy in Burma whilst you were away.

  21. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Popcorn time!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-government-cancels-mining-licences-tainted-by-eddie-obeid-ian-macdonald-corruption-scandals-20140120-314iv.html
    This “warfare” is of no consequence to me. I have not watch anything on commercial TV in these timeslots for a decade or two.
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/seven-contemplates-news-and-current-affairs-overhaul-20140120-314b4.html
    What’s the problem? Abbott, Mesma and Brandis will sail us through this.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/east-timor-calls-on-the-hague-to-condemn-asio-raids-20140120-3158s.html
    And yes George, we all believe you!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/george-brandis-vows-not-to-read-documents-asio-seized-20140120-314pq.html
    Abbott, Mesma and Morriscum have done us proud!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/navys-incursion-was-stupid-says-sceptical-indonesian-politician-20140120-314vg.html
    Bruce Petty comes to school on Pyne’s history curriculum.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/bruce-petty-20090907-fdvy.html
    Alan Moir sums up the impartiality of the Commission of Audit.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    Cathy Wilcox is unimpressed with Brandis’s bookcase.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    Pat Campbell examines the Nauruan legal system.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
    And David Rowe chimes in with his view on it.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  22. [Actually Adam your wrong on Burma , it looks like socialism it’s actually the Jews, deblonay explained the nature of the Zionist conspiracy in Burma whilst you were away.]

    Oh, I’m sorry to have missed that. I visited the beautiful little synagogue in Rangoon, which dates back to the 1860s, but there’s now only a handful of Jews left in the country. If there were more the place might not be in such a mess.

  23. [And the appointment of Ian Callinan as the ad hoc judge nominated by Australia might suggest a certain pessimism. As far as I know he was never regarded as a great international lawyer, of the type whose views would potentially sway those of other judges…]

    But he is a very good cricketer if the judges are having a game in the courtyard during the lunch hour

  24. Hi Psephos glad your trip was worthwhile.

    Regarding one punch deaths get 8 years minimum in NSW! Will it be a deterrent? Otherwise simply paying the price for damage which cannot be reversed.

    Here’s my suggestion:
    1 How about a lockout at 12 midnight to stop the patrons coming out late after getting full on the cheap at pre club parties before heading out to the club?

    2 How about a lockin as well? ie the venue supplies the alcohol to some patrons who clearly shouldn’t be supplied. So, no-one can leave the venue until they’ve blown in the breath tester showing they’re not over a set limit eg. .05 or .08 or even .01. Venue acting responsibly!

    This way the venue keeps them locked in (and off the streets) until they’ve come down far enough to be able to think again. No more staggering around the streets to “after parties” either.

    There would be a lot more prevention in such measures as the above.

  25. And from the Land of the Free –

    These guys ain’t got nuthin’ on our Libs!
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/01/attn-bobbleheads-were-you
    Elizabeth Warren continues her good work.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/01/new-warren-bill-could-save-billions
    London in colour – 1927 rare footage.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qgxki8_R968&feature=youtu.be
    Policing LA style. Shocking!
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017170590
    A liberal guest hammers FoxNews panel. And what a caricature is Jonathon Hoenig!
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017170372

  26. Good Morning.

    Psephos

    Glad you enjoyed the trip. I have a question for you. Where does it say that socialism has to be a dictatorship?

    France is a socialist country. You continue to confuse communism and socialism.

  27. Morning all. Thanks BK for your links and efforts on the fire front over the weekend. The CFS did a fine job by all accounts.
    [Regarding one punch deaths get 8 years minimum in NSW! Will it be a deterrent? Otherwise simply paying the price for damage which cannot be reversed.]
    Passing any law without adequate resources for enforcement and prosecution is no deterrent at all. We had tougher laws against drink driving for years. Without random breath testing and extra police on the road they were worth nothing. The NSW situation will not change unless the obligation to stop the problem is placed on the cause (the pubs) as it is in other states, or there is far greater police resourcing.

    This new O’Farrell law is just a PR stunt. Barry O’Farrell, Man of Jelly, remains firmly in the clubs and pubs pockets.

  28. Psephos

    I must agree on your views on the long term effects of socialism. I visited India over twenty years ago now before Singh’s reforms began to take effect. It was similar in many ways, and very sad. It was also appallingly corrupt and unequal even then. There was no trade off between personal wealth and fairness – it had gone backwards on both fronts.

  29. France is not a socialist country. It’s a thriving capitalist country whose current president is officially a socialist (in fact a moderate social democrat). It’s 30 years since the French socialists tried to socialise anything.

    Socialism, if it means anything, means the abolition of all significant forms of private property (that is, private ownership of the means of production and exchange), and their control “by the people” – or in practice by the state “on behalf of the people.” That can only be done by force, because no democratic electorate has ever voted for the abolition of private property. Every attempt to carry out a socialist program has resulted in dictatorship – Russia, China, Cuba, Vietnam, etc etc.

    It always also results in poverty, because the theory of socialism is simply false. Public ownership, particularly without political democracy, does not produce efficiency, equality or prosperity. It produces inefficiency, corruption, waste and poverty.

    Compare Thailand and Burma, which 60 years ago had roughly equal standards of living. For all the many vices of Thai capitalism, it has produced modest prosperity for most Thais. Socialism has reduced Burma, once a wealthy food-exporter, to ruin and poverty.

  30. Socrates

    Yes India is such a sterling example of purity now. No corruption or poor people there now.

    The Scandinavian countries are socialist too.

    See the Oxfam report. Under free market capitalism 85 people have the wealth of the rest of the world. Capitalism not exactly a vehicle for equality either.

    Socialist Democracies managing capitalism with welfare and the like are the closest we have seen to addressing wealth inequality.

  31. [The businessman whose advice will guide the Abbott government’s axe into public spending has been accused of a conflict of interest over his continuing paid advocacy for the pay TV industry.

    Tony Shepherd revealed to a Senate inquiry last week that he and a fellow audit commissioner had met the management of SBS. The government-owned broadcaster is one of the businesses under the Commission of Audit’s microscope for privatisation, along with Medibank Private and Australia Post.
    The audit may also recommend ways to trim funding to the ABC – although Fairfax Media understands broadcast reform is down the list of audit priorities]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-audit-commissioner-accused-of-conflict-of-interest-over-pay-tv-advocacy-20140120-314v8.html#ixzz2qyRPIGl6

  32. socialism
    Psephos

    ˈsəʊʃəlɪz(ə)m/Submit
    noun
    1.
    a political and economic theory of social organization which advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole.

    Thats pure socialism. Note it does not say owned by government. Thus your farmers cooperative is socialist.

    Just as the world does not operate on pure capitalism. We have regulation of markets and are not Somalia The world would never work under pure socialism.

    Whatever economic system is used has to work under democracy to have wealth creation balanced with the welfare of a countries citizens.

  33. Guytaur

    Scandinavian countries are NOT socialist, and would not claim to be. My grandfather came here from Finland and I have been there and stayed with relatives and seen Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Norway in some detail.

    They have long practiced what they called the “middle way” between socialism and capitalism. They have government supplied services (of excellent quality) and the private sector runs all business and manufacturing. Companies like Nokia, Erickson and Volvo are private, have always been so, and there was never an attempt to privatise them. Banks are private there too.

    I am against extreme unregulated capitalism too, which soon degenerates into fascism. But government owning all private property (communism) or just all business and industry (socialism) does not work. British Leyland proved that in the 1970s.

  34. This is getting silly.

    We all know that Burma is a good example of what not to do. However, there is a distinct smell of many “does not follow”s..

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