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| Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
The north-eastern Adelaide seat of Makin extends from Pooraka near the city to Tea Tree Gully and Greenwith at the limits of the metropolitan area. Labor is especially strong in the areas nearer the city, from Walkley Heights north to Salibsury East, beyond which are generally newer suburbs with more mortgage payers and families, who have helped keep the Liberals competitive or better for most of the seat’s history. Together with Kingston in the south of the city and Wakefield in its outer north, Makin is one of three Adelaide seats which the Liberals held in the final term of the Howard government before blowing out to double-digit Labor margins at the 2010 election, and which remain securely in the Labor fold despite the 2013 election defeat. In Makin’s case the Labor margin reached 12.0% in 2010, before the 2013 swing reduced it to 5.1%.
Makin was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 from an area that had mostly formed the southern end of the safe Labor seat of Bonython, the majority of which was in turn absorbed by Wakefield when it was abolished in 2004. It was held for Labor by uncomfortable margins from 1984 to 1996 by Peter Duncan, a former Attorney-General in Don Dunstan’s state government. A 4.8% swing put Duncan on the Keating government casualty list in 1996, and he returned to the headlines in 2007 after being charged with fraudulently obtaining government grants for his plastics recycling company. The seat was then held for the Liberals by Trish Draper, who emerged as a prime ministerial favourite after strong performances at the next two elections. A swing against Draper of 0.2% in 1998 compared with a statewide swing of 4.2%, and she consolidated her margin by 3.0% in 2001. Draper hit trouble in the lead-up to the 2004 election when it emerged she had breached parliamentary rules by taking a boyfriend on a study trip to Europe at taxpayers’ expense, but she survived by 0.9% in the face of a swing that was not reflected in neighbouring seats. Draper retired at the 2007 election citing an illness in the family, before unsuccessfully attempting a comeback in the state seat of Newland at the March 2010 election.
The seat was then won for Labor on the second attempt by Tony Zappia, who had been the mayor of Salisbury since 1997, a councillor for many years beforehand, and was at one time a weightlifting champion. Zappia was widely thought to have been a victim of his factional non-alignment when the Right’s Julie Woodman defeated him for preselection in 2001, and a repeat performance appeared on the cards when a deal ahead of the 2004 election reserved the seat for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left”. The arrangement displeased local branches as well as party hard-heads concerned that a crucial marginal seat should be contested by the most appealing candidate, and Premier Mike Rann successfully prevailed upon Wortley’s backers to throw their weight behind Zappia. The move appeared a dead end for Zappia in the short term as he proved unable to win the seat, whereas Wortley was elected from the number three Senate position she was offered as consolation. However, Zappia performed considerably better with the electoral breeze at his back in 2007, demolishing the 0.9% Liberal margin with a swing of 8.6%. This was achieved in the face of a high-impact publicity campaign by Liberal candidate Bob Day, housing tycoon and national president of the Housing Industry Association who has since been elected as a Senator for Family First.
The once non-aligned Zappia is now a member of the Left, and is believed to have been a backer of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenges, and of Anthony Albanese over Bill Shorten in the post-election leadership contest. After spending the period in government on the back bench, he won promotion after the election defeat to shadow parliamentary secretary for manufacturing.
I would suggest that it is virtually a universal outcome that if you use your armed forces for policing duties, for partisan political purposes, and against civilians, then the quality of the armed forces, their morale, their general behaviour, and the way in which they are regarded by civilians, tend to decline.
This is made worse when the policing they are carrying out is a heavily conflicted policy.
Service people who are ordered to put women and children into lifeboats, often in distressing circumstances will be having their personal doubts. The PTSD bill will be mounting. The assymetry of having a 3,600 tonne (HMAS Stuart) warship bossing a 60 ton leaky wooden boat will not help. The general lack of accountability and the general lack of transparency tend to aggravate the general trends.
Grigg’s intervention is, at one level, extraordinary. He should not be having to say this sort of stuff at all. At another level, Grigg’s intervention is merely another symptom of the patterns which are becoming quite clear.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/navy-chief-expresses-deep-concern-over-medias-lack-of-respect-for-officers-20140120-314l5.html
Rupert’s former flame is fronting the Old Bailey as we speak, but this hasn’t deterred our self-proclaimed moral compass..
[Old sea dog sets sail for pastures new
Rupert Murdoch has finally offloaded his one-time ”love boat”, the superyacht Rosehearty which had previously ferried him and former wife No.3 Wendi Deng around some of the most glamorous waters on the planet.
After four months on the market, the Monaco office of yacht broker Camper & Nicholsons has completed the sale for a reported $US29.7 million ($33.7 million). The identity of the buyer has not been disclosed.
The sale was reportedly unconnected to the media billionaire’s marital split, with one yacht broker telling CNBC last year: “Rupert works all the time. He loves the boat, he loves to sail, but he doesn’t really use it much.” But Murdoch is still an enthusiastic, if somewhat salty, sea dog, having spent plenty of time during the Christmas-New Year break aboard son Lachlan’s new yacht Sarissa on Sydney Harbour.
While Murdoch’s camp had denied reports last year claiming Murdoch had started dating his masseuse, PS hears there is a new woman in the 83-year-old’s life, a media executive in Sydney in her early 30s, who is well known to the extended Murdoch family.
While the rumoured relationship is yet to be confirmed, friends of the woman are said to be gobsmacked by the news.]
http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/private-sydney/private-sydney-wild-about-margot-robbie-20140117-310dk.html
[1093
Centre
Tony Abbott …. needs to speak very slowly, carefully think every word before he speaks, uuuums and aaaars and bobs his head under stress.]
TA has quite likely been concussed a few times too many. His obvious confusion when challenged to think quickly suggests he has mush for brains.
LSL @ 1095: There is a pleasure in watching a great lawyer in action, which of course you don’t get when it’s just Senator Brandis speaking.
1095
That horrible attitude that a particular nation (in this case Australia) is more important that justice is what got Australia into this mess in the first place.
[1095
Leisure Suit Larry
Are we meant to enjoy the sight of some foreigner slagging off our country?]
We might reflect on the squalid greed of Alexander Downer and the LNP Cabinet in which he served; on the misuse of Commonwealth security capability on behalf of Woodside Petroleum; and the sinecure with that company now enjoyed by the same fat and happy former minister.
Sir Eli looks like he is on his last legs and has just requested a brief adjournment. Agree with Pedant,this is the best show in town tonight.
Griggs has an Indonesian decoration:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Griggs_%28admiral%29
I had thought that Australian service personnel were not allowed to accept decorations from foreign countries.
Edward StJohn
What ALP staffers?
briefly
I think many are disappointed that we should have done better than Abbott as PM.
All he has done is drag politics at a lower and dirtier level since he became leader of his party.
Sure he might be slightly more intelligent than the average person but not a PM especially in personality and character.
Abbott could be on the front bench (preferably in opposition) as a head kicker – that is all!
Edward StJohn
You didn’t answer my question from last night about are people really willing to rort DSP for only $750 a fortnight?
Everything this guvmint touches turns to shyte.
Sir Eli could well become a cult figure. Straight out of a Dickens novel.
Centre
[Abbott could be on the front bench (preferably in opposition) as a head kicker – that is all!]
I think you have nailed the problem, a head-kicker does not necessarily translate to competent Prime Minister, where the role requires that you stay above the fray.
pyne – the curriculum review freed from political influence
…can someone get rid of this clown and the mob who rule
ps why is a national discussion under a seat of the week here?
Rossmore @ 1107: Sir Eli is 85, so has every right to feel a bit puffed; but the content of his presentation is quite something. He was DFAT’s chief legal adviser in the 1970s, and his opening remarks had some tart comments to the general effect that Australia’s standards appear to have slipped somewhat in the intervening period.
is abbott still cohabiting? what happened to the pre election happy family?
Here’s the link to the court hearing … Adjourned at the moment, but should be back shortly, assuming Sir Eli makes it…
http://www.icj-cij.org/presscom/live_english.php?p1=6
The Liberal/National Coalition of Australia, throwing our National dignity overboard since 2004
Despite us roundly bagging Tony Abbott for being a Dilettante in Davos, rather than attending to his Prime Ministerial duties with imagined and real emergencies at every turn, I must say the programme for Davos is impressive.
I hope Abbott can make it to a few of these sessions, and learn something.
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/AM14/WEF_AM14_Programme_Public_A5C2512E1D.pdf
Pedant 1116 thanks for that … Interesting cv too…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elihu_Lauterpacht
Back in action in the ICJ – see Rossmore @ 1118 for the link.
This is the funniest thing I have read for a while:… Queenslanders are so ……
“There is a world outside Brisbane”
I would have thought most rational human beings would think the entire world, thankfully, is outside Brisbane.
[IMMIGRANTS and refugees could have their visas fast-tracked if they agree to live in regional Queensland.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/immigrants-could-jump-queue-under-qld-plan/story-fn3dxiwe-1226805824004%5D
There’s nothing in there about how to better punch walls, sprocket.
That does look like an interesting program, Tone might fill a bit out of place with many of those presentations and performances.
[I would have thought most rational human beings would think the entire world, thankfully, is outside Brisbane.]
as opposed to our senior politicians who think that the world begins in Sydney and ends in Penrith.
[1110
Centre
briefly
I think many are disappointed that we should have done better than Abbott as PM.]
Disappointed is one word for it. Others are probably increasingly shattered.
For example, he is reputed to have described the fires of recent days as the events of just another Summer. Effectively, he’s told everyone – including those who have lost loved ones, houses, pets and livestock – to suck it up while ignoring the obvious effects of climate change in accentuating the heat waves to which we are inevitably prone.
Likewise, he suggested that Holden workers facing redundancy should see their impending losses as “liberation” while foreshadowing moves to dismantle Medicare and Commonwealth funding of public education. He has also made clear he intends to take science, energy and environmental policy back to the 1920’s and the politics of the MDB back to the 1800’s.
He is not a disappointment. He is a tragedy for this country.
[1120
sprocket_
I hope Abbott can make it to a few of these sessions, and learn something.]
Abbott is impervious to learning, sprocket. He prefers ignorance.
Wow Davos-Klosters looks like a dump – not! Abbott is such a dork & so uncultured he’ll stick out like a sore thumb at that gig. Here’s one for him:
[13.45 – 15.45
Congress Centre – Wisshorn WorkStudio 41
The Impact of a Warmer
World
How would a 4°C temperature increase reshape the environment, societies and economies?]
Bribie is outside Brisbane but you can see Brisbane from there.
[13.45 – 15.45
Congress Centre – Wisshorn WorkStudio 41
The Impact of a Warmer
World
How would a 4°C temperature increase reshape the environment, societies and economies?]
Whats to bet that our Bogan Prince will give that part of the Program a wide berth ?
briefly @ 1127
[Disappointed is one word for it. Others are probably increasingly shattered.
For example, he is reputed to have described the fires of recent days as the events of just another Summer. Effectively, he’s told everyone – including those who have lost loved ones, houses, pets and livestock – to suck it up while ignoring the obvious effects of climate change in accentuating the heat waves to which we are inevitably prone.
Likewise, he suggested that Holden workers facing redundancy should see their impending losses as “liberation” while foreshadowing moves to dismantle Medicare and Commonwealth funding of public education. He has also made clear he intends to take science, energy and environmental policy back to the 1920′s and the politics of the MDB back to the 1800′s.
He is not a disappointment. He is a tragedy for this country.]
Do you think the ALP has any responsibility for enabling this gang of rent-seeking fools to get in charge?
Do you think the ALP is more preoccupied with furthering the “careers” of the members of their little clubs than what happens to Australia?
Do you think the ALP has little passion for explaining to and educating the people as to what is happening and what alternatives are possible? Or do you think they just do not understand themselves and do not have much interest anyway?
Do you think the ALP, and their LNP alter-ego, is held up by a dishonest electoral system and totally corrupt media that makes hard thought and hard work unnecessary?
Put this in your diary
[Thursday 23 January
10.40 – 11.00
Congress Centre – Congress Hall
87 special address/abbott
Australia’s Vision for the G20
This session is on the record and webcast live.]
There appears to be several sessions focused on the environment and gender equity, maybe Tone has really gone to learn something to come back and shock us with.
Yes okay that might be wishful thinking.
Sir Eli calls for severe, firm condemnation of Australia by the ICJ and the immediate return of the seized documents
RE1133
Australias ‘vision’ for the G20 ?
surely would have to be let fear and ignorance prevail
And seeks a formal apology and costs.
[sprocket @ 1120]
It’s a fascinating program. It would obviously help a lot to have a curious mind and a willingness to listen to new ideas about the contemporary world. Such a pity that we’re sending a numbskull who can scarcely walk and talk at the same time.
MB. me thinks that Abbott will spend most of his time at Davos either in the Bar, or on the Slopes.
Anywhere where he doesn’t have to confront reality
Despite us roundly bagging Tony Abbott for being a Dilettante in Davos, rather than attending to his Prime Ministerial duties with imagined and real emergencies at every turn, I must say the programme for Davos is impressive.
I hope Abbott can make it to a few of these sessions, and learn something.
——–toneess will be class class as he been all his life – spend most of time trying in corridors showing insecurities and illeducation trying to subvert processings with anyone who’ll listen to his anti climate pro tea party rantings.
[1132…swamprat]
You can try that on as much as you like, but the ALP – for all their imperfections – are not to blame for the spillage that comprise the LNP.
Centre
Broncos vs Seahawks
The two teams I was hoping would win today lost (SF were unlucky) and I’m rootin’ for Denver in the SuperBowl so it looks like Seattle to win for the first time. 🙁
Bravo Sir Eli!
Can’t help thinking that Brandis and co have been blindsided by this action in the ICJ.
Abbott will speak for a whole 20 minutes? That’s not long considering how slowly he speaks these days and the time that will be taken up by lip-smacking and coughing. He’ll be lucky to finish his third sentence. For which his audience should be deeply grateful. Imagine if you had to endure an hour of Abbott.
Yesiree Bob
He won’t miss the Opening Lunch Buffet, he loves stuffing his face.
leone
Long enough for him to slag off the previous Government.
This is a lay down misere for Timor L’Este. The Aus Gov have behaved oppressively and deserve the courts condemnation. A sad day for the australian gov and their legal advisors.
I just finished reading the fourth in the Barney Thomson Barbershop series, The King was in his Counting House.
It’s set in Scotland and a serial killer (not Barney’s mum this time) is offing the Scottish Cabinet one by one.
The papers and public barely notice and certainly don’t care, being more concerned about stories like the English lassie who wouldn’t eat a live cockroach to stay on The Survivor or Glasgow Celtic offering the tealady at Barcelona FC a million pounds a year to play for them.
I’m sure there was a message in there somewhere for PBers.
The Abbott Government’s only foreign policy success was a trade agreement that had mostly been negotiated under Gillard/Rudd.
That’s it.
On the negative side they have trashed the Indonesian relationship and continue to trash the Indonesian relationship. They have made best friends with a warmongering Abe who has just visited the Yasukuni Shrine, worhsipped inter alia a bunch of war criminals, increased expenditure on war materials something dramatic, sought to amend the Act that limits Japan to self-defence and nationalised some 600 islands.
They have gone out of their way to stir up the Chinese who duly became stirred up.
Abbott would be seeking desperately to generate some foreign affairs cred at the G20. He will make a set piece speech glorifying free trade and globalisation. He will avoid like the plague any G20 climate change stuff. He will seek, in the margins, to smooth the path of the TPP. He will try to avoid making a fool of himself. He will try to make sure that he will be photographed with important people.
In that forum – in terms of influence – Abbott has four challenges. He has not shown any great interest in nuanced foreign affairs – apart from the standard deputy sherriff stuff vis-a-vis the US. Secondly, Abbott has no real interest in economics. Thirdly, he has not built up the web of personal relationships with the people who count. Fourthly, unlike Abbott, every other leader at the G20 accepts the science demonstrates global warming is a major problem and also knows that it is an intractable policy issue. Abbott has not got past first base on that one.