Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

The Christmas-New Year poll drought ends courtesy of a new result from Morgan, which suggests little has changed over the break.

Morgan has released what it describes as the “first major public opinion poll of 2014”, though it could just as easily have dropped the “major”. It provides no indication of festive cheer softening attitudes towards the new government, showing the Coalition down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39% with Labor also down half a point to 38%, the Greens up half a point to 10.5% and the Palmer United Party steady on 3.5%. That translates to a 53-47 lead to Labor on 2013 preference flows and 52.5-47.5 on the headline respondent-allocated figure. As has been Morgan’s form for a while now, this poll combines its regular weekend face-to-face polling with SMS component, in this case encompassing 2527 respondents from the two weekends past. The first Essential Research result for the year should be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Little change also from Essential Research, which opens it account for the year with a result from the polling period of Friday to Monday only, rather than its two-week rolling average. This has the Coalition leading 51-49, with the Coalition, Labor and the Greens each up a point on the primary vote to 45%, 38% and 8% respectively, with the Palmer United Party steady on 4% and others down two to 6%. Also featured are the monthly personal ratings, showing a slight improvement for Tony Abbott – up two on approval to 47% and down three on disapproval to 43% – and a softening for Bill Shorten, down four to 35% and up one to 32%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Abbott’s lead shifting from 43-33 to 42-31. The poll also finds strong opposition to fees for GP visits, with 28% approving and 64% disapproving, and 47% support for Australia becoming a republic at the end of the Queen’s reign against 32% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,586 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. Te missing link of the Audit Commission coming up with cuts to achieve a 1% of GDP surplus by 2023/4 has one HUGE missing link and that is what is the planned REVENUE fr that year.
    That is not in their remit and looks like it has not bee supplied to them.

  2. Victoria re Eltham.___
    _______________________
    Yes I think it’s a worryinf state of affairs I live in a wooded area of Greensborugh near the river with an overgrown creek across the road and our neighbours worry too

    We have had some huge thunder-slaps in the past hour and the weather readar map shows a lot of”little’ storms around
    we really need a good downpour after a very dry post-Christmas period…but not as bad as Adelaide

    I spoke to a friend

    there and he said it wa 45deg and worse to come

    see radar map

    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR024.loop.shtml#skip

  3. Some sad, not, news about Switzer pile of crap .

    [Click bait it may be, but one reader claims the Switzer piece was taken down from the SMHโ€™s Facebook page last night amid a flurry of negative comments. The piece was not there this morning.]

  4. William if you are there and anyone else who may be interested, I have received information to your query from yesterday:

    According to a New York based institutional dealer at BBY;
    – there is very limited interest in some of the Asian markets at present, particularly Australia.

    The major concerns for offshore investors are the following;
    – a shaky exchange rate,
    – a slowdown in Australian mining investment,
    – the demise of the Australian manufacturing industry,
    – the fading political support for the newly elected government, and
    – investor frustration with the lack of regulatory change to support Qantas.

    Translated if you like…

    Abbott, a huge fail on global financial markets!

  5. BK@1304

    bemused
    A senior public servant from Finance seconded to run the secretariat of the Audit Commission.

    The bloke who ran work choices as a public servant for the tories as well IIRC?

  6. Dastyrari has on this hideous cheap looking blue suit and his hair looks brylcreamed – could be a character out of American Hustle or a NSW Right Spiv – but the one is the same as the other, eh?

  7. Geoff

    [What the hell are you talking about? How was I avoiding it?]

    Avoiding what?

    Put your projected AGW changes on the table under BAU and then we can start talking.

  8. We have just had an isolated gust of wind that lasted about 10 seconds and which snapped the outdoor umbrella off its base.

    Parts of the sky have turned an unusual opaque grey sort of colour.

    Very humid and around 37 degrees.

  9. I am minding a flock of canaries for a friend. We nearly had a mass heat-related canary death event at about noon – that would have added $300 to the adaptation costs of AGW.

    I turned the hose onto them so they got off the floor, tucked their wings back into position and stopped gaping.

    Fingers xed.

  10. 256 fires started in Victoria yesterday, mostly by lightning strikes.

    When we first moved up here twenty years ago, the local firechief told me there’d basically never be a major fire again, because they sent up spotter planes and helicopters after every storm to locate spot fires.

    In 2003, over 100 fires started during one lightning storm in the ranges. They got most of them, sure enough, but the three or so they couldn’t (due to the terrain) burnt more area than the 1939 fires.

    Much the same pattern in 2006.

    I asked my climatoligist friend whether or not there’d been a change in the nature of thunderstorms – whether global warming was increasing the number of dry thunderstorms, in effect.

    She was so interested in the question that she said she’d recommended it to a potential PhD student, but I don’t know if it was ever followed up.

  11. Can someone please respond to Bar Bar in an outraged fashion so that he can feel his attempts at trolling have been successful and go away satisfied?

  12. Bob Ellis great piece on the warmongers of the US Military-Industrial complex(of which Eisenhour warned in his last days)
    _____________________________
    Citing the death rolls from wars in Vietnam/Irag and elsewhere Ellis looks at the 6o years of wars and invasions which puts the US in the same category as Hitler and other madmen..so why do the Blairs and the Howards fail to see this….although the good thing may be that the US Empire is financialy bankrupt and we may be spared the worst excesses in the future of US imperialism

    89 comments
    The Last Days Of Jed Bartlet, Warmonger

    a great piece by Ellis

  13. zoomster
    Quite a lot of research has been done into lightning and lightning strikes. (The former do not hit earth and the latter do). The statistics for the last ten years have been automated because they are measured from space. The dynamics are complex and quite fascinating. The dynamics relate to one of the great unresolved issues in AGW predictions – the behaviour of clouds.

  14. CTaR1
    The JR has been of the very, very firm opinion all day that the coolth of the houth is the plathe to be.
    We have passive cooling and, provided the nights cool down enough, the house is actually liveable during the hottest day.

  15. Zoomster re Bar Bar…
    \He sounds like a sheep and I suspect he may be a clone of Tisme…uncanny likeness to his prose style(if I may use that term for such drivel )

    Having said that…I must say I dislike Dastirari as a typical NSW Right operator…and he reminds me of his oid Mate .. Arbib..(Captain America)..the NSW senator(who disappeared so suddenly….why???????????) and also a former US Embassy informer(spy :??)

    what a crew ! and the colour of his suit is irrelevant

  16. Bw – Looking after my sisters french spaniel at the moment.

    The courtyard has a bit of quality china to drink out of and a plastic bowl full of water.

    The plastic bit gets sodden in.

  17. CTaR1

    The latest canine research indicates that plastic drinking bowls are a potential death threat to dogs.

    But I suspect more hyperbowlic than real.

  18. “Quite a lot of research has been done into lightning and lightning strikes. (The former do not hit earth and the latter do). The statistics for the last ten years have been automated because they are measured from space. The dynamics are complex and quite fascinating. The dynamics relate to one of the great unresolved issues in AGW predictions โ€“ the behaviour of clouds.”

    I get a few call outs (NSW)to check on the possibility of fire after lightning strikes. They give a map ref and a 6 figure grid reference. It works well and accurate.

  19. [ Can someone please respond to Bar Bar in an outraged fashion so that he can feel his attempts at trolling have been successful and go away satisfied? ]

    Nah! Bar Bar is nowhere near as funny as ST, so not really worth responding to.

  20. BK@1313

    dave
    I am not aware of Croneโ€™s background.

    I thought I saw mention of him associated with work choices.

    But for what its worth –

    [ the secretariat headed by former Howard adviser Peter Crone ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/audit-must-serve-public-not-sectional-interests-20131028-2wbtx.html#ixzz2qRiAXoCV

    and

    [ Peter Crone, executive officer of the audit. Mr Crone is the chief economist at the Business Council. ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/commission-of-audit-chairman-sought-delay-of-senate-hearing-20140114-30t43.html#ixzz2qRhzEB00

  21. Melb power system falters as some suburbs blacked-out

    The power companies may have to shed some loads in the coming days as the forecast for Thursday has been upped to 44deg…and the power system cannot cope with demands…which may effect interstate customers too …Adalide is in line for the same treatment

    ___________________________

  22. Boerwar
    [Avoiding what?]
    You specifically said I was avoiding talking about some issues you had mention in a previous post like the plaugue but I was not even on the same topic so i was wondering how I could be avoiding it if it was not on the same topic.

    [Put your projected AGW changes on the table under BAU and then we can start talking.]

    BAU? Business as usual? I do not have any projected changes apart from the hope that the centre of Australia turns into a tropical rainforest.

  23. MTBW@1338

    dave

    So another one from the BCA!

    Then there is shephard and “conflict of interests”

    [ Tony Abbott’s hand-picked auditor charged with assessing government spending and advising on outsourcing runs a company that has won contracts from the federal government worth more than half a billion dollars. ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/contract-riches-for-audit-chief-20131023-2w1w7.html#ixzz2iz9aReWU

    Imagine the outcry if it was a Labor ‘mate’ in the same position of conflict.

  24. Helen Skyes

    Very pleased that leone located the origins of the Abbott quote. As i mentioned earlier, i do recall it being said at the time but could not remember the context.

  25. geoff

    If you want AGW policy response cred, just put your projections under BAU on the table.

    If you don’t want any cred at all, keep playing the way you are playing.

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