Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

The Christmas-New Year poll drought ends courtesy of a new result from Morgan, which suggests little has changed over the break.

Morgan has released what it describes as the “first major public opinion poll of 2014”, though it could just as easily have dropped the “major”. It provides no indication of festive cheer softening attitudes towards the new government, showing the Coalition down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39% with Labor also down half a point to 38%, the Greens up half a point to 10.5% and the Palmer United Party steady on 3.5%. That translates to a 53-47 lead to Labor on 2013 preference flows and 52.5-47.5 on the headline respondent-allocated figure. As has been Morgan’s form for a while now, this poll combines its regular weekend face-to-face polling with SMS component, in this case encompassing 2527 respondents from the two weekends past. The first Essential Research result for the year should be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Little change also from Essential Research, which opens it account for the year with a result from the polling period of Friday to Monday only, rather than its two-week rolling average. This has the Coalition leading 51-49, with the Coalition, Labor and the Greens each up a point on the primary vote to 45%, 38% and 8% respectively, with the Palmer United Party steady on 4% and others down two to 6%. Also featured are the monthly personal ratings, showing a slight improvement for Tony Abbott – up two on approval to 47% and down three on disapproval to 43% – and a softening for Bill Shorten, down four to 35% and up one to 32%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Abbott’s lead shifting from 43-33 to 42-31. The poll also finds strong opposition to fees for GP visits, with 28% approving and 64% disapproving, and 47% support for Australia becoming a republic at the end of the Queen’s reign against 32% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,586 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. [Hacks have got everything invested in Labor’s assurance that coalition will never be able to turn/tow back boats successfully. Gawd even Phsephos has pushed this line.

    Trivia: Boat arrivals stopped for Howard after December 17 2001, the day on which navy turned the fourth boat around.]

    Yes the Left claimed black and blue that you could never turn back the boats and that you can’t stop the boats.

    The problem with leftists is they actually believe their own reality detached from the real world.

  2. zoomster@1248

    Strange response, bemused — I wasn’t referring to you.

    Ah, that’s right — one of your cronies under attack again…

    Rex Douglas is by no means a crony of mine as you put it. But I respect his right to have a different opinion about how Shorten is coming across and it makes me re-examine my own thoughts.

    I didn’t think you were referring to me.

  5. Zoomster

    Your point about dropping policies after an election loss is well made. In the great public transport debate in WA, how the libs have dumped everything they promised, opposition Leader Mark Magowan won’t say he will go the next election with the same rail plans he had last year. Wisely not getting locked in.
    As for the COL Stuff, Abbott campaigned hard on it, got elected and now nobody in the MSM seems to care about the price of petrol. When it goes up under the Labor it is Labor’s fault, when it happens under the Tories it’s forces beyond their control.

  6. “@linessue: Despite CoA claims they had not received any correspondence, they have indeed received correspondence about public sector job cuts #auspol”

  9. Geoff

    [
    Gosh why is everyone hating on positive people!]
    There is positive and there is delusional. People disagree over where that line is.

  11. davidwh@1244

    BTW the commission has stated GST not ruled out.


    Well at least that is something positive to consider.

    It will speed the demise of the tory government if it is acted upon.

    All very clever having sheppard on the record many times calling for GST increase and broadening plus cuts to business tax.

    Too clever by half.

    The more political capital sheppard destroys on behalf of abbott the better.

  12. K17

    I just feel he has no real presence. I am not condemning him but we all think differently.

    He will be there for the next three years so we will have to wait and see.

  14. Jackol @ 1221

    Right on, tho i personally think 3 or 4 or even 2 degrees C/K warming is too much.

    We’ve had what … only half to 3/4 of a degree warming since in 50 or 60 years already (according to the IPCC report.) And in that time GHG emissions have risen considerably, so the process won’t be slowing down soon it will be speeding up.

    Will Abbott and co take responsibility for the increase in heat related deaths the way they think Rudd and Garrett should for the Insulation scheme deaths? I doubt it.

    BTW Someone into video editing could do something awesome with that quote from Abbott about running away, and all that footage of him running away – from press conferences, hard questions and even parliament.

  15. They could be using negativity as an excuse and the result would be the same. Then you would be here asking us why we hate on negative people.

  16. zoomster

    Could you please tell me who bemused’s “cronies” are?

    I asked you the other day but didn’t get a response.

    Maybe you just have no regard for anyone who doesn’t agree with you.

  17. jules –

    i personally think 3 or 4 or even 2 degrees C/K warming is too much.

    I agree with the sentiment, but it seems fairly clear that the 2 degree ceiling being talked about is now a pipe dream given the lack of international action, so presumably the minimum we can sensibly expect now is more than 2 degrees of warming…

  18. Dave #1261 unfortunately you are correct about the GST. For some reason it is an area where it is impossible to have an open and rational discussion on the pros and cons of any changes. Mind you it’s not the only area and in fact it is much harder to find areas where open and rational discussion are possible than those where it’s political suicide to do so.

    That is pretty much why we have little chance of any meaningful change to the tax/welfare system. The cost in waste and inefficiencies because of this is just plain stupid.

  19. CTar1

    Dave and the UK tories might not get any Sikh votes for a few decades if this is true.

    [Britain ‘backstabbed’ Sikhs by advising India on 1984 Golden Temple raid

    Britain’s involvement in the massacre of hundreds of Sikh separatists in an Indian temple in 1984 will be urgently investigated, David Cameron has ordered.

    Previously secret documents released by the Government have shown that a SAS officer was drafted in to help the Indian authorities with plans to remove dissident Sikhs from the Golden Temple at Amritsar, Sikhism’s holiest shrine.
    The plan was ordered with the full knowledge of then Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher the documents say. Hundreds of Sikhs were killed in the attack. ]
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/10571223/Britain-backstabbed-Sikhs-by-advising-India-on-1984-Golden-Temple-raid.html

  20. MTBW@1266

    zoomster

    Could you please tell me who bemused’s “cronies” are?

    I asked you the other day but didn’t get a response.

    Maybe you just have no regard for anyone who doesn’t agree with you.

    I think that automatically qualifies them to be regarded as my crony. 😀

    zoomster must get terribly perplexed when I am on her side in an argument. It must make her one of my cronies. 😛

  24. From watching the Commission of Audit hearing today I have come to the opinion that they will be independent. It is possible that Hockey will end up with a bigger problem than he currently has in that Shephard, to me at least, has indicated that they will be working from the currnet level as the base and will not double count the 2.5% efficiency dividends and Abbott’s 12000 PSA cut.
    Time will tell.

  27. bemused

    no, I cope fine when you’re on my side of an argument.

    You, however – as demonstrated yesterday – jump straight in with the assumption that anyone who’s criticising a particular person (Rudd or one of your mob) must be wrong.

    That kind of loyalty is admirable, but it’s too often misplaced.

  33. Could we leave off references to groups of unspecified individuals. It’s troll* bait and we all know it. If you have something to say, address it to the individuals explicitly.

    * work out for yourself whether it refers to the one baiting, the one being baited, or both :P.

  34. MTBW the sad thing is they put that Jumbo down and if anything it was foolishness by the driver that caused the incident. What’s an elephant to do when someting that big continues to pursue it getting closer all the time?

  40. [ davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 3:43 pm | Permalink

    Dave #1261 unfortunately you are correct about the GST. For some reason it is an area where it is impossible to have an open and rational discussion on the pros and cons of any changes. ]

    Its straight forward enough – the poor carry a disproportionate and unfair burden in any increase and the rich get the benefit – its intended business get the tax cut in this instance.

    But its what the tories and their masters at the big end of town want but won’t come out and say so.

    Mid class welfare is where reform is required plus over generous tax breaks to the wealthy via super.

    Abbott ranted about any tax increases when in opposition even modest ones. Then the many quotes by him on the GST.

    Yet again its all being done in secrecy – they have plenty to hide.

    [ Mr Shepherd was asked whether he personally believed his commission’s report should be released publicly.

    “I don’t believe it should be. I believe it is a report to government and it is up to them.” ]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/1/15/federal-budget/surplus-target-reasonable-shepherd

  41. david, sapping your joy is my newfound purpose in life. Don’t worry, I have a short attention span and that may even be both the first and last time that I do it with any consistency.

  46. [Could Climateers be actually WINNING the battle?]

    On the Science, is it happening , yup, for sure. Much of what is said and written by the Grumpy True Disbelievers is simply incorrect, and while our understanding of climate processes and effects continues to grow and change the basic concept that we are accumulating heat in the system, and that this is likely a bad thing, is still sound.

    On the Politics, not so much. Its still something people dont want to believe and that gives idiots like the Abbott, Newman, and their troops in the blogosphere an emotional opening to exploit.

    I think thats one thing that makes this issue so fascinating for me.

    Science informs policy, but policy is informed by politics, and so round and round it goes.

  47. Victoria, i’m so pleased that Leone found the source of that quote – and that Abbott did talk about running away from democracy.
    I do hope someone uses video of Abbott with this quote superimposed.
    Have we ever seen hypocrisy on this scale before?

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