Morgan has sort-of-published a result showing Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent allocated and previous election preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 a fortnight ago, with primary votes of 40.5% for the Coalition (down one), 38.5% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (up 1.5%) and 3.5% for Palmer United (steady). The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 2879 respondents, suggesting they’ve changed methodology on us again. This information comes from the trend tables on the Morgan site – we are yet to see the usual weekly press release that would tell us more about the methodology.
UPDATE: Here we go. The methodology is still face-to-face plus SMS with no online component, so the larger sample is obviously down to the fact that the poll was conducted over two weekends instead of one.
UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): And now courtesy of the Seven Network we have a ReachTEL automated phone poll timed to coincide with the 100 day anniversary (no hair-spitting please, Latin scholars) of the Abbott government, which reflects the overall trend in giving Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition and 40% for Labor. It also has 50% rating the government’s performance so far as disappointing, 30% as good and 20% as satisfactory.
UPDATE 3: Full results from ReachTEL here. The full primary votes are 41.4% for the Coalition (down 2.8%), 40.4% for Labor (up an impressive 6.2%), 8.7% for the Greens (down 1.1%), 5.1% for the Palmer United Party (down 1.5%) and 4.4% for others (down 1.3%). Also included are personal ratings on a five-point scale for Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Abbott’s ratings have measurably weakened since the previous poll of November 21, while Bill Shorten tellingly has a net negative rating overall: obviously a lot of respondents whose incline to give the new guy the benefit of the doubt when given a straight approval-versus-disapproval option instead go for an intermediate option (“satisfactory” in this case) when one is available.
UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research assumes its traditional role of stick-in-the-mud in recording essentially no change on last week, with the Coalition still leading 51-49 from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition and 37% for Labor, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party each down a point, to 7% and 4% respectively. Also featured: who or what it’s been a good or bad year for (net bad for everything except, curiously, “your workplace” and “you and your family overall”, with “Australian politics generally” scoring 8% good and 70% bad), how the next 12 months are expected to compare (somewhat more optimistic, especially with respect to Australian politics), what the government should do about Qantas (an even divide between four listed options), the importance of car manufacturing (60% important, 33% not important), whether the government should provide subsidies to Holden (45% yes, 42% no) and the level of government support to Toyota should be increased (31% increase, 44% leave as is, 11% decrease).
On a somewhat similar note, The Australian last night published Newspoll figures from last week’s poll showing 15% expect their standard of living to improve over the next six months (up one from last time), 64% expect it to stay the same (up four) and 20% expect it to get worse (down three).
Two ships off CI have very strange movements around the island. Changing course, speeding up then going very slow then speeding up.
Certainly not the best sailing for good fuel economy.
Ocean Princess and Hoa Nam.
Ocean Princess has a destination WBGB. When clicked on it shows the desination as the Rhine River.
Tony Abbott has wound back the ministerial code of conduct to allow federal ministers to keep shares in public companies they would have been forced to sell under the Gillard and Rudd governments.
The code outlines rules and procedures ministers must follow to avoid conflicts of interest. The new standards leave it open for ministers to hold shares in public companies that do not relate to their portfolios, at odds with the standards set out by the previous government.
Under the code of conduct created by the Gillard government, ministers were required to get rid of all public and private shareholdings other than some forms of managed funds.
==============================
What a rort. Not happy with the travel rorts, Abbott is allowing more rorts
Are we talking about real Ukranians here or pretend East Pole Ukranians
Victoria
Jeepers the Age is slow!
Do hope Rabbott & Co. are toast before the flush.
[Australia to be gas ‘superpower’
Australia to eliminate its current account deficit for the first time in almost 40 years, according to Morgan Stanley.]
http://www.theage.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/australia-to-be-an-energy-superpower-20131216-2zgaw.html
Clint Deidenang on Nauru tweeted earlier today a massive covert transfer operation by Dept Immigration and Border Protection is currently underway. Massive Asylum seeker transfer to Nauru, 70+ transferees per flight nearly every day. Target to reach 3000 by the end of 2013. Human transfer in over drive.
I am surprised Sean hasn’t been citing the unusual snowfall and rain in Israel, Gaza, Syria as evidence that the climate is not changing.
Tony Abbott is a liability to the Tony Abbott government.
Tony Abbott is dying of shame.
[Bill Shorten 100 days of broken promises @TonyAbbottMHR #betterschools #boats #debt #fraudband #jobs #auspol pic.twitter.com/fB1IzhEOK0]
https://mobile.twitter.com/billshortenmp/status/412487980855468033/photo/1
AussieAchmed@251
It’s Hoa Nam which is seriously weird.
It has already docked at CI, then undocked and is doing lazy circles in the sky.
Damned if I know what it is doing. Wasting good fuel as far as I can tell.
And I have checked, and most vessels at CI do NOT turn off their transponders while in dock. Why would they, they probably don’t even know they are on, do you check if your fridge is on at home unless the icecream melts?
Suck it up, Leone.
@don/259
I would say picking up or searching more “illegals”.
PB, Sean would cite the fact that his kettle doesn’t boil water quick enough as proof that there is no global warming.
Abbott forecasting “a decade of deficits”, clearly trying to pin this on Labor rather than the global economic circumstances.
Will people believe his accusations? I’m of a mind that they will.
BludgerTrack last update was December 12 (not 5th as advertised)
[Tony Abbott is a liability to the Tony Abbott government.
Tony Abbott is dying of shame.]
TA has no shame.
He is a liability to the economy and they body politic. I understand he is a brilliant politician from reading here earlier in the day.
My question is if someone does something that is successful, like getting elected, does that necessarily make the thing he did good, or even ‘brilliant’. I guess my argument would be that it is only brilliant and successful if getting elected is the whole goal. As soon as there are reasons to be elected, things to do, actually getting elected means nothing it is all about what you do with it.
But forgive my doubts I’ll leave you to worship his brilliance at the ‘game’ of politics.
Like bodyline really, yeah sure it might work, but a lot less intelligent and less sporting. IMHO.
[Do SA PBers have an opinion on Abbott’s “plan” to save SA?
BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s biggest mining company, will get Australian government help as it consider options for the expansion of its Olympic Dam mine, a plan shelved after metal prices declined.]
I heard a strong rumor that BHP are going to announce a partial expansion of Olympic Dam that will create enough jobs to offset Holden leaving.
Confessions
[Will people believe his accusations? I’m of a mind that they will.]
I tend to agree!
And the ABC’s Mark Simpkin does his best to imply that it is indeed Labor to blame, even though he points to “falling revenues” as largely to blame for the deficit. Heavily interspersed with ‘he said, she said’ reportage. Not good enough. Simpkin proves he can only deal objectively with matters requiring less thought.
There is only one party winding back Labor’s revenue generators and into the bargain introducing regressive spending initiatives. But evidently Simpkin can’t see the forest for all those damned trees!
Diogenes@265
Dio, even if that turns out to be correct, I think that the demise of Holden has an effect that cannot be measured in jobs or dollars.
There are a lot of petrol heads out there.
Funny, though, the disappearance of Ford created not a ripple. But Holden? I guess we will find out.
[I heard a strong rumor that BHP are going to announce a partial expansion of Olympic Dam that will create enough jobs to offset Holden leaving.]
Are they going to expand it all the way to Elizabeth?
I’m sorry Slav doesn’t want to tell me which war he was in.
If Abbott had tried to do what he did (to successfully get elected) without the full force of the media (ABC included) supporting and protecting him he would have lost by a large margin.
Simkin and the Toolman were planted at the ABC by conservative forces to do a certain job. Nothing more, nothing less.
Don’t know why it is, but regardless of how bad Coalition governments are with the economy, they are able to sell the con and they only draw criticism from the media in hindsight.
[BludgerTrack last update was December 12 (not 5th as advertised)]
Corrected.
Dee:
The Liberals are the ultimate spin-masters, and are ultimately trusted on economic matters. Plus Labor made a poor case on so-called debt and deficits.
That is why I reckon people will simply buy whatever this mob says about our debt. It’s also happening so close to xmas and holidays when nobody is thinking about politics, even less than would be anyways.
It’s textbook politics 101, and I hope Labor is paying attention.
The Libs can only pin the economy on Labor for a short while. After that they own it. They are the ones that are meant to be good managers.Oh and no surprises, no excuses.
When people are hurting they blame the government of the day, not past governments. Some here are giving the people too much credit. BTW look at the recent polling and see how much they are blaming Labor after 100 days.
I get the feeling the next 3 years are going to break open a few myths. One of those is that the Libs are great economic managers.
Gary
Once you successfully instill a perception it is hard to budge.
It is budged by reality.The Libs have given the impression they can fix all. That myth will be shot down in flames.
Gary
[I get the feeling the next 3 years are going to break open a few myths.]
Hope so!
@Gary/276
One of the first things that Abbott should have done, is not just rant on what Labor hasn’t done, but rather do something that to help those in need.
All he has done, along with his other ministers, is blame Labor.
Small business are hurting right now.
People are not interested in blaming past governments. They want the present government to fix things. If they don’t they’ll turn on this government just as they did the last. It’s already happening. zoidlord is correct.
[Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48]
At the risk of being seen as a bit of a pessimist, I would not recommend too much excitement about these figures.
Since the Hawke/Keating years the ALP has shown a breathtaking skill at losing the political debate.
Despite the superior eduction of many of the ALP MPs and the generally (and very timid) more equable intentions of many ALP policies, the ALP loses the political debate.
Despite masterfully able factional “leaders” that would put the mafia to shame, the ALP loses the political debate.
Despite cleverly replacing an admittedly erratic leader successfully in a putsch and replacing him with a hardworking and dedicated leader who politically lacked a few clues, the ALP loses the political debate.
I would suggest that the better odds are that the LNP (Lying Nasty Party – I love the pythonest name) will learn from their mistakes, and with the Town Big Ends and the Murdoch/Foxtel/Sky news empire in saturation overdrive about 6 months before the next election (funded with a few billions from education and health) to successfully bribe the aspirational bogans.
Most likely by then there will be another USA aggressive move on some “coloured” country upon which the LNP will hitch a ride.
While the above might be conjecture, one thing is for sure: it seems that the ALP always prefer to lose elections than:
a) actually try to change the powers that control the direction of policy and even the debate on policy in Australia (like the media, retail and other concentrations of control) or
b) stop the golden careers of many mediocre ‘loyal’ careerists.
In other words, with 2 and a half years to go the current polls are meaningless.
The budget statement tomorrow is predictable (anti-ALP farrago) but the ALP has almost seemed to connive with the LNP in supporting the gospel belief that the ALP is a group of well meaning but economically irresponsible gang.
We will see how the vanilla ALP responds. I expect an apology from them about their lack of corporate-control purity and a promise to fully support every anticompetitive demand from the USA Obama gang in the secret TPP.
I reckon the new government gets to blame the last for about 12 months, after that they own it.
253
The whole of Ukraine is where we are talking about.
Why do you distinguish between the part of Ukraine that was part of Poland before WWII (and presumably include that parts that was part of Czechoslovakia an Romania) and the Rest of Ukraine?
What about the more Russian east versus the more Ukrainian west?
[We will see how the vanilla ALP responds. I expect an apology from them about their lack of corporate-control purity and a promise to fully support every anticompetitive demand from the USA Obama gang in the secret TPP.]
You really are a dill.
William Bowe in the “Grey” topic said:
[Tony Abbott did not get to become Prime Minister by being a bad politician.]
That’s not, IMO, the basis of the objection to Keane’s observations. As I read them, people resent the implication that winning a drovers dog election victory makes him an effective politician rather than an adequate political mannequin summoned by Murdoch. Such folk might see the benchmark for the title “effective politician” as “significant involvement in developing or implementing policy” (it’s no coincidence that the words “politician” and “policy” are similar after all).
[What a lot of people would like Bernard Keane to say is that Abbott is bereft of talents of any sort, notwithstanding that this is a half-witted opinion at best.]
Well yes they would, but we need not dwell too much on that. That may well be driving the anger at Keane, but however little acumen Abbott possesses is a side issue, IMO.
[Since he has taken on the job of identifying an “Australian politician of the year”, it would irredeemably stupid of Keane to name anyone other than the person who led his party during the course of the year to a sweeping electoral victory, and to justify that choice with reference to his undeniable political accomplishments.]
Oh I don’t know about that. It seems to me that Rudd was a far greater factor in events than Abbott. Without the Rudd factor, Abbott could not have asserted dysfunctional government. The regime would probably not have fallen and even allowing that they did, it would have been as a consequence of their own ineptitude and the grist they offered to the Murdoch mill. There’s a case for saying that Murdoch was the politician of the year.
[What is obvious, or should be obvious, to any fool is that it does not follow that Keane likes Tony Abbott. He very clearly does not.]
That seems clear to me, but Keane’s remark about Abbott learning and becoming better in 2014 or some such thing is without foundation. One suspects he’s doing the vacuous faux balance thing here, which, in concert with the rest of his piece, simply winds up those who, as you suggest, want him to describe Abbott far more negatively than he does.
Jackol:
I wish people as insightful as you would stop doing the “let’s not underestimate Abbott” meme. One cannot underestimate Abbott, though it is certainly possible to overestimate how significant his lack of acumen is. As far as I can tell, nowhere near enough people set store by acumen, and also make it their business to evaluate the acumen of the contenders and base their vote on this for it to do Abbott decisive political damage — at least, not yet.
Whatever you’re drinking swampy is not doing you much good.
Natasha Stott Despoja the new ambassador for women and girls.
Not a Gillard in sight…
[You really are a dill.]
Not sure.
Dill is better with fish.
@Sean/289
Not a Peta Credlin in sight or that other women either.
[Natasha Stott Despoja the new ambassador for women and girls.]
Interesting that NSD is still only 44, yet she’s already had a whole political career and has been out of Parliament for five years. She started far too young and burned herself out. No-one should seek elective office until they’re 30 IMHO.
Has operation sovereign borders managed to find all the people who were wandering around XMas Island?
Nice screen shot on Ch7 news tonight
http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/20355397/Abbotts-first-100-days-the-worst-in-polling-history/
[No-one should seek elective office until they’re 30 IMHO.]
Paul Keating disagrees strongly with you.
[Paul Keating disagrees strongly with you.]
I dare say, and of course not everyone who starts very young is a failure. But many have been. And the game is a lot tougher now than it was in 1969.
Thinking of something useful and insightful to say tonight, but drew a blank. Shit happens, as they say.
292
The entirely membership elected leader and the political centre balancing act were most of the undoing, rather than her personally.
I heard my Auntie/Uncle on the weekend while they were over, were saying how today’s problems started back with Paul Keating and Whitlam.
Shorten’s popularity climbs while Abbott slumps.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/shortens-popularity-climbs-while-abbotts-slumps-20131216-2zhku.html
No doubt the coalition are planning a muckracking agenda for next year.
On that note, good night