Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48

The Labor-friendliest polling series offers the Labor-friendliest poll result of the Labor-friendliest polling period in some considerable time.

Morgan has sort-of-published a result showing Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent allocated and previous election preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 a fortnight ago, with primary votes of 40.5% for the Coalition (down one), 38.5% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (up 1.5%) and 3.5% for Palmer United (steady). The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 2879 respondents, suggesting they’ve changed methodology on us again. This information comes from the trend tables on the Morgan site – we are yet to see the usual weekly press release that would tell us more about the methodology.

UPDATE: Here we go. The methodology is still face-to-face plus SMS with no online component, so the larger sample is obviously down to the fact that the poll was conducted over two weekends instead of one.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): And now courtesy of the Seven Network we have a ReachTEL automated phone poll timed to coincide with the 100 day anniversary (no hair-spitting please, Latin scholars) of the Abbott government, which reflects the overall trend in giving Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition and 40% for Labor. It also has 50% rating the government’s performance so far as disappointing, 30% as good and 20% as satisfactory.

UPDATE 3: Full results from ReachTEL here. The full primary votes are 41.4% for the Coalition (down 2.8%), 40.4% for Labor (up an impressive 6.2%), 8.7% for the Greens (down 1.1%), 5.1% for the Palmer United Party (down 1.5%) and 4.4% for others (down 1.3%). Also included are personal ratings on a five-point scale for Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Abbott’s ratings have measurably weakened since the previous poll of November 21, while Bill Shorten tellingly has a net negative rating overall: obviously a lot of respondents whose incline to give the new guy the benefit of the doubt when given a straight approval-versus-disapproval option instead go for an intermediate option (“satisfactory” in this case) when one is available.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research assumes its traditional role of stick-in-the-mud in recording essentially no change on last week, with the Coalition still leading 51-49 from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition and 37% for Labor, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party each down a point, to 7% and 4% respectively. Also featured: who or what it’s been a good or bad year for (net bad for everything except, curiously, “your workplace” and “you and your family overall”, with “Australian politics generally” scoring 8% good and 70% bad), how the next 12 months are expected to compare (somewhat more optimistic, especially with respect to Australian politics), what the government should do about Qantas (an even divide between four listed options), the importance of car manufacturing (60% important, 33% not important), whether the government should provide subsidies to Holden (45% yes, 42% no) and the level of government support to Toyota should be increased (31% increase, 44% leave as is, 11% decrease).

On a somewhat similar note, The Australian last night published Newspoll figures from last week’s poll showing 15% expect their standard of living to improve over the next six months (up one from last time), 64% expect it to stay the same (up four) and 20% expect it to get worse (down three).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,320 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48”

  1. Re the “liberation” of the holden workers. Didn’t Peter Costello make a similar remark once that redundant workers could all go and start Jim’s mowing franchises?
    Some one here will know

  2. Should also point out that the Holden rhetoric probably helped save at least Wakefield in the federal election and possibly Adelaide too (and might have ensured the Hindmarsh margin was thin), as it was the main message that the Labor Party were making here that actually was solid and well received. (The infrastructure stuff was also pretty good but easily negated by the Coalition at the time by counter-offers.)

  3. I’m very concerned as to what that sneaky prick Brandis is up to with his ‘rights and freedoms’ review of Commonwealth legislation, following on from the Tim Wilson appointment.

    I have a feeling it’ll go far beyond quelling Bolt’s little tantrum.

  4. Socrates @ 2191
    [ As for unemployment “liberating”, it was as though he was channeling George Orwell]

    I think Abbott may have been trying to make the same point as Keating in the recent Kerry O’Brien interviews when asked about the sweat shop workers losing their jobs because of tariff cuts replied with wtte “yeah, but we got them better ones.”

    But Abbott mangled it, plus Keating’s economic reforms did deliver better, higher paid jobs whereas Abbott wouldn’t have a clue about how to do that, and doesn’t want to anyway.

  5. [zoomster
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 10:46 pm | PERMALINK
    Sigh.

    Days like this, I appreciate William so much more!

    I was asked to moderate a facebook site (I’ve been nominally a moderator for it since it begun, but backed off over the past year due to disagreements with the other moderators about what was/wasn’t acceptable). Anyway, today I was asked to try and restore a little order into the place.

    …..IMMEDIATELY the usual suspects (no, not bemused, but similar) put up posts which directly go against the guidelines I’ve just outlined.

    …….William, I feel about a tenth of your pain.]

    Did someone post how they hated another poster or something?

  6. @Jake/2205

    This is the same person that along with overseeing out TPP Negotiations, so that Foreign Multinational Companies can sue the Goverment of the Day.

    I’m pretty sure that there will be simular ‘rights of freedoms’ legislation by Brandis.

  7. “Go tell that to he workers to their face.”

    I would be happy to, if I met one. And say I was given one week’s notice and and had dependent children, but needs must and got back on my feet without much fuss.

    Four years is a long time to adjust.

  8. Now this is the difference between conservatives and socialists.

    One side makes the best and gets up going without expecting to be fed by the State, and nor wanting to because welfare is emotionally and spiritually adverse to human nature.

    The other expect to be taken care of.

    God helps those, who help themselves.

  9. [So the poster puts up a new post, on the same issue……….

    William, I feel about a tenth of your pain.]

    Just ban them.

    You’re going to have to do it anyway.

    May as well do it sooner rather than later.

  10. “Don’t bring religious/liberal nonsense in here.”

    Ok, I won’t. I understand different opinions are not welcome here, but I need to make a point afore I go, that human nature can overcome adversity and it’s better to be positive and cheerful and get on with life and not whinge. It’s better emotionally and sets a better example to your kids.

  11. In my experience, those who push that hardline Randist nonsense are usually first in the handout line when they need it.

    Also, “socialist” is a massive straw man there. Not everyone who disagrees with you is a socialist. Secondly, not every conservative agrees with your hardline.

  12. Other businesses have been diversifying for a long period. They have known Holden was going. The ones that will fail are to much in debt and would have failed any way, just further down the track. The big event tonight is whether the US fed decides to taper its bond buying program which may send our dollar lower.

  13. Mod Lib@1917

    The same people who think “There will be no carbon tax under a Government I lead” and then introducing a carbon tax under a government she led is not a lie, whereas saying in Nov you don’t have plans to do something and then doing it in December is a lie.

    I think it get it…….hmmmmm……perhaps not…….

    I love the how well you do double standards Mod Lib. You are the master of it. Why shouldn’t we apply the same level of scrutiny and standard to this government as you Coalition supporters did to ALP? And when people get fed up with the crap thrown at ALP and the ‘lefties’ and do the same to you right wing government you cry hypocrisy.

    So how about this for you (as bas as it is to only take half the sentence and use it against someone):

    ‘The same people who think “There will be no carbon tax under a Government I lead” and then introducing a carbon tax under a government she led IS A lie, whereas saying in Nov you don’t have plans to do something and then doing it in December IS NOT a lie.

    I think it get it…….hmmmmm……perhaps not…….

    Pft, Mod Lib, projection is thy middle name

  14. prettyone

    We’re talking about whole suburbs being put out of work, which is entirely different to a handful of people losing their jobs here and there.

    Immediately, as of the announcement, their houses are worth less. (Who wants to buy a house in an area where everyone knows the job market is about to collapse?) In fact, for the whole of that area, it will become almost impossible to sell.

    So they effectively can’t move away, which makes it harder for them to find work elsewhere.

    Of course, we could just throw them all on the scrapheap and read passages on survival of the fittest and the nobility of struggle to them. But it would cost us more in the long run – people without any source of income will do desperate things when it comes to keeping their family in food.

  15. @prettyone/2222

    Liberals don’t even follow their own conduct, so why should we believe anything liberals do or say, when they say the opposite of what they are doing?

    Get what I’m saying?

    They are more liars than the ALP or anyone else.

  16. [that human nature can overcome adversity ]

    I wish those people starving in the Sudan would take that attitude, instead of sitting around in the desert selfishly wasting away. A bit of will power and good old fashioned get up and go, that’s all that they need.

  17. “@gp_sunrise: BREAKING: Russian parliament officially adopts Amnesty bill in 3rd reading. This means the #Arctic30 are granted amnesty.”

    Thats official. Sorry for my confusion following tweets.

  18. [So what is the difference? Is it because of the name Holden that some employees are deemed special and are given 4 years notice?]

    From your attitudes this time around pettyone I find it easy to believe you may have done something awful in your last life. So karma i guess. 🙂

    Of course, seriously, the Holden workers are well represented Union wise, so that may have helped as well. Good on them for getting what they can i reckon. At least they didn’t have to suffer to work for one of John Howard’s relatives to get payouts.

    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/stories/s98866.htm

    And considering the well paid jobs for rejected Fiberal failures program this Govt has underway, its the least they can do.

  19. Pettytone

    To a point i agree the Holden workers do have time on their side but let me ask you the question which i asked Sean and as per usual it was beyond the talking points.

    An employer is needed to hire the employee, the question facing the 2900 Holden employees is where are these employees?

  20. Carey yes or at least provide the training opportunities for new lines of work but the point i am asking the likes of Sean and now Prettytone is after the re-training where are the employers?

  21. [The fact that Holden workers have time on their side is exactly why active solutions are necessary.]

    Yep, and why Weatherill expressed such disappointment that the Abbott-offered Federal package of support kicks in well into the future.

    He is spot on.

  22. [Slav G
    …..So how about this for you (as bas as it is to only take half the sentence and use it against someone):

    ‘The same people who think “There will be no carbon tax under a Government I lead” and then introducing a carbon tax under a government she led IS A lie, whereas saying in Nov you don’t have plans to do something and then doing it in December IS NOT a lie.

    I think it get it…….hmmmmm……perhaps not…….

    Pft, Mod Lib, projection is thy middle name]

    Gosh, quite a lot are struggling with this concept aren’t they? It aint rocket science.

    Let me help:

    A) There will be no carbon tax under a government I lead.
    There is a carbon tax under the government she led…ergo LIE

    B) I do not have plans to introduce a carbon tax. Then she needs to negotiate with the Greens and has to introduce a carbon tax. Then she introduces a carbon tax….no lie.

    A) There will be no employment of Sophie under a government I lead.
    Then his government employs Sophie….ergo LIE

    B) I have no plans to employ Sophie. Then he later is asked to employ her and he decides to employ her. No lie.

    Follow?

  23. The other important point being overlooked by the likes of Sean and Prettytone is whilst it is a positive to invest in new trainings i argued the other day but still these workers will be competing with experienced workers in the new field.

    This is why i pondered the idea of internal transfers

  24. [and read passages on survival of the fittest and the nobility of struggle to them.]

    Ah, but Conservative Social Darwinist’s get uncomfortable with that if it goes to far. May encourage the peons to look further into this “survival of the fittest” concept and come up with their own rather “pointed” definition of fitness leading to a redistribution of survival. 🙂

  25. FWIW, the appointment of Mirabella (or any other recent appointments), regardless of whether there’s a lie, will not have any effect on how the government is perceived. Appointments are trivial and disinteresting to most voters.

  26. [ Now this is the difference between conservatives and socialists.

    One side makes the best and gets up going without expecting to be fed by the State, and nor wanting to because welfare is emotionally and spiritually adverse to human nature.

    The other expect to be taken care of.

    God helps those, who help themselves. ]

    So, you oppose the PPL scheme then?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *