Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48

The Labor-friendliest polling series offers the Labor-friendliest poll result of the Labor-friendliest polling period in some considerable time.

Morgan has sort-of-published a result showing Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent allocated and previous election preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 a fortnight ago, with primary votes of 40.5% for the Coalition (down one), 38.5% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (up 1.5%) and 3.5% for Palmer United (steady). The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 2879 respondents, suggesting they’ve changed methodology on us again. This information comes from the trend tables on the Morgan site – we are yet to see the usual weekly press release that would tell us more about the methodology.

UPDATE: Here we go. The methodology is still face-to-face plus SMS with no online component, so the larger sample is obviously down to the fact that the poll was conducted over two weekends instead of one.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): And now courtesy of the Seven Network we have a ReachTEL automated phone poll timed to coincide with the 100 day anniversary (no hair-spitting please, Latin scholars) of the Abbott government, which reflects the overall trend in giving Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition and 40% for Labor. It also has 50% rating the government’s performance so far as disappointing, 30% as good and 20% as satisfactory.

UPDATE 3: Full results from ReachTEL here. The full primary votes are 41.4% for the Coalition (down 2.8%), 40.4% for Labor (up an impressive 6.2%), 8.7% for the Greens (down 1.1%), 5.1% for the Palmer United Party (down 1.5%) and 4.4% for others (down 1.3%). Also included are personal ratings on a five-point scale for Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Abbott’s ratings have measurably weakened since the previous poll of November 21, while Bill Shorten tellingly has a net negative rating overall: obviously a lot of respondents whose incline to give the new guy the benefit of the doubt when given a straight approval-versus-disapproval option instead go for an intermediate option (“satisfactory” in this case) when one is available.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research assumes its traditional role of stick-in-the-mud in recording essentially no change on last week, with the Coalition still leading 51-49 from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition and 37% for Labor, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party each down a point, to 7% and 4% respectively. Also featured: who or what it’s been a good or bad year for (net bad for everything except, curiously, “your workplace” and “you and your family overall”, with “Australian politics generally” scoring 8% good and 70% bad), how the next 12 months are expected to compare (somewhat more optimistic, especially with respect to Australian politics), what the government should do about Qantas (an even divide between four listed options), the importance of car manufacturing (60% important, 33% not important), whether the government should provide subsidies to Holden (45% yes, 42% no) and the level of government support to Toyota should be increased (31% increase, 44% leave as is, 11% decrease).

On a somewhat similar note, The Australian last night published Newspoll figures from last week’s poll showing 15% expect their standard of living to improve over the next six months (up one from last time), 64% expect it to stay the same (up four) and 20% expect it to get worse (down three).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,320 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48”

  1. Childcare fees are predicted to rise as much as 10 per cent if a subsidy promised by the previous government is revoked by the Coalition.

    Under Labor the Government pays over half of child care costs of most households through a combination of a means-tested price subsidy (Child Care Benefit, CCB) and a universal subsidy program,

  2. [ davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 6:56 pm | Permalink

    One of the key differences between some/all? on the left from others on the right is about perceptions of progress and ways to achieve that. ]

    File the above under “No shit Sherlock”.

    Most voters realised there were “key difference in perceptions” when the tories introduced Work Choices in the attempt to utterly throttle workers.

    There were also “key difference in perceptions” when the tories opposed with every fibre of their being the introduction of the measures below –

    – A Universal Medical Scheme.

    – Superannuation across the work force.

    – NBN

    – Improved Educational Opportunities for all in society.

    – Fair working conditions and Safety at work.

    Most of the above represented a threat to the vest interests of tory supporters and were opposed even though they were in the broad national interest.

  3. AussieAchmed

    A number of times as a lab rat I’ve had to do the analysis of cargo being unloaded/loaded . One thing I saw on every occasion was the huge panic that the ship not spend even a minute extra in port. Time and money and all that. I’d have every man and his dog involved perched on my shoulder to make sure everything was OK and the moment I finished it was WHOOSH they were off.
    Some of the stuff involved tankers so I can’t imagine a tanker left to idly drift around like that.

  4. Poroti (2089),

    [was (Cerdic) … also over at JTI’s place?]

    I don’t think so. I think he may have disappeared up his own fundament by that stage. He was definitely around on Matt Price’s blog though.

    CTar1 (2091),

    Yes, Angry of Mayfair was hilarious. Another one of my favourites on the Kenny Everett Show was the talking dentures in the glass.

    ruawake (2093,

    [Kenny Everett’s “Angry of Mayfair”.

    I think his clones are on talkback radio all over the world.]

    Yeah, and the difference is, Angry was funny.

  5. Look at Bangladesh among many other places if you want to see how the owners of capital would treat workers given the opportunity. Places which have historically had strong unions (The Anglosphere and Western Europe are far better places to be born into than anywhere else unless you are lucky enough to be born into the local elite. We don’t have good wages and good and safe working conditions in this country because of the magnamity of past generations of squatters, factory owners and captains of industry.

  6. Acerbic Conehead

    Ta. I’m sure I’ve seen his name somewhere and I was not a Poll Bludger at that stage. You I know were over at Jack’s place. Well either that or someone else came up with the same cool name 🙂

  7. Today’s Mumble is an absolute ripper. On twitter he loves sinking the boot into so-called Libertarians, and the Brandis appointment of Tim Wilson to the HRC is the perfect fodder for him.

    [But it’s rarely racial vilification laws that keeps them on their toes, it’s libel ones. You know, those tools wielded by well-known people with “reputations” and deep pockets. The sorts of people IPA folks (and others across the political class spectrum) would associate with.

    In 2011, Labor MP Mike Kelly tweeted something about the Liberal polling and lobbying firm Crosby Textor they didn’t like so they took him to court.

    That is, they availed themselves of the apparatus of state to shut him up. The case is still in the courts and last I heard Kelly was already poorer by a six figure dollar amount. And then there’s the public funds spent on the actual process.

    (The latest on that case is here.)

    Did the IPA take to the media to denounce this nanny-statism? Did Libertarians across the country rise in protest? No, some speech laws are sacrosanct it seems.]

  8. So apparently Tim Wilson isn’t a pro-free peech after all, just for those who are in power like him.

    Kiera ‏@KieraGorden 6m

    Apparently, Tim Wilson (the new Human Rights Commissioner), has deleted this tweet. Luckily I saved a copy! #AusPol

    What a douchbag.

  9. Tony Abbott told Australians one thing before the election and is doing the complete opposite now he’s in power. Here are just some of his broken promises so far:
    •Removed the debt ceiling despite saying more debt is not the answer
    •Back flipped on schools despite promising that no school would be worse off
    •Sent Holden offshore despite promising 1 million new jobs

  10. Stealing the words of a great Labor thinker.

    [“One of the roles of government is to recognise that for many people, especially kids born into poor families, there’s a clear role for governments to spend resources to make sure we have equal opportunities across society,that the lottery of life as to where you start doesn’t determine where you end up.

    “Too much inequality strains the social fabric and a large gap between rich and poor can mean the two groups occupying separate spheres, not coming into contact with one another. That’s not the kind of Australia I want to live in.”]

    If you are born into privilege I can understand why this statement is frightening.

  11. Joe Hockey and Tony Abbott have taken a $13.7 billion hit to the Budget bottom line over the next four years to give tax breaks to large multinational corporations, people with super balances over $2 million and for those who borrow to invest overseas.

    At the same time, the Abbott Government has hurt up to 2.7 million small businesses missing out on the instant asset write-off, up to 110,000 small businesses missing out on a lower threshold for the loss carry back provisions and up to 3.6 million low and middle incomes earners now having to pay super tax on their contributions.

  12. Acerbic Conehead @ 2087

    [He used to refer in glowing terms to John Howard as the Man of Steel, and in conclusion, sign off with, “So says Cerdic Conan”.]

    Good, old Cerdic! Those were the days.

    One would hope that the aging Cerdic has by now been superannuated to a maximum security twilight facility, as should his idol, the failed and discredited JW Howard ….. although the cells of the International Criminal Court in The Hague as a war criminal would probably be more appropriate for him and his little mate, GW Bush.

  13. [Prime Minister Tony Abbott says many Holden workers will be “liberated” by the loss of their jobs at the carmaker.]

    FMD. Did he REALLY say that?

    That’s what you say well after those affected have moved onto bigger and better things, not when they’re staring down the barrel of uncertainty and all the fear that comes with that!

  14. When my son started in 08 is cost $75 a day. To put my daughter in Jan 14 will cost $101. Under labor care has become unaffordable.

    Under Howard, until 30 June 2008, you would have paid $52.50 a day. Today you pay a maximum of $50.50.

  15. [Prime Minister Tony Abbott says many Holden workers will be “liberated” by the loss of their jobs at the carmaker.

    What an obnoxious git]

    This is one arrogant outburst that will follow him around like a bad smell.
    publicly shown such contempt for other people?

    Also he has probably upset a lot of tradies who rely on the automotive industry for a living. It would be good if they “liberated” him at the next election.

  16. Acerbic Conehead @ 2114

    [He was definitely around on Matt Price’s blog though.]

    Matt Price is one we sorely miss in the world of journalism – a gentleman and a scholar. I had the very great fortune to sit next to him on a plane from Perth to Sydney once, and he was a witty and knowledgeable writer, and a nice bloke who happened also to like a beer, or two.

    Sadly, the good die young, and arseholes like ‘The Parrot’ live on, creating nothing but hatred and misery for everyone and everything that they touch.

  17. Boerwar

    Looks like the swines are pinching Tassiewegians wave piercing technology. I had a trip on their first boat at the Americas Cup when it hit Freo. Great boat.

    {World’s Fastest Ship: Incat’s Wave Piercing Catamaran

    Built at Incat’s shipyards in Hobart, Tasmania, this is the world’s fastest ship. With a cargo of over 1,000 passengers and 150 cars, the 99-meter catamaran can travel at speeds of up to 58 knots or 107 km per hour. Its new owner, Buquebus Ferries, has named it ‘Francisco’ in honour of Argentinean-born Pope Francis ]

  18. Boerwar

    One thing the Incat ship does is disprove the idea that Tasmania cannot do high tech and leading edge stuff. Incat have been at the front of the pack for a long time and still in Tasmania. The last three trophies for fastest crossing of the Atlantic belong to them.
    I should also mention that their propulsion is thanks to a kiwi invention, jet propulsion 🙂

  19. Poroti, The Big Ship and Boerwar,

    Yes, Matt’s premature passing was obviously not only a terrible personal tragedy for his family, but we lost one of the best political writers in the blogosphere. May he rest in peace and let us blog on in his memory..

  20. poroti


    One thing the Incat ship does is disprove the idea that Tasmania cannot do high tech and leading edge stuff. Incat have been at the front of the pack for a long time and still in Tasmania. The last three trophies for fastest crossing of the Atlantic belong to them.
    I should also mention that their propulsion is thanks to a kiwi invention, jet propulsion]

    Is that water jet propulsion?

    BTW, when we had it, the kiwi could fly. Then youse guys got hold of it and turned into a flightless bird.

  21. Sophie was “liberated” by getting tossed out of a safe Liberal seat and just look at how well she has done since then. She’s been so flooded by job offers she had to be given one by her old boss.

  22. Sean Tisme

    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 8:42 pm | Permalink

    Why can’t we get a new thread for the Essential results??!?

    Nothing wrong with this thread.

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