Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48

The Labor-friendliest polling series offers the Labor-friendliest poll result of the Labor-friendliest polling period in some considerable time.

Morgan has sort-of-published a result showing Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent allocated and previous election preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 a fortnight ago, with primary votes of 40.5% for the Coalition (down one), 38.5% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (up 1.5%) and 3.5% for Palmer United (steady). The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 2879 respondents, suggesting they’ve changed methodology on us again. This information comes from the trend tables on the Morgan site – we are yet to see the usual weekly press release that would tell us more about the methodology.

UPDATE: Here we go. The methodology is still face-to-face plus SMS with no online component, so the larger sample is obviously down to the fact that the poll was conducted over two weekends instead of one.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): And now courtesy of the Seven Network we have a ReachTEL automated phone poll timed to coincide with the 100 day anniversary (no hair-spitting please, Latin scholars) of the Abbott government, which reflects the overall trend in giving Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition and 40% for Labor. It also has 50% rating the government’s performance so far as disappointing, 30% as good and 20% as satisfactory.

UPDATE 3: Full results from ReachTEL here. The full primary votes are 41.4% for the Coalition (down 2.8%), 40.4% for Labor (up an impressive 6.2%), 8.7% for the Greens (down 1.1%), 5.1% for the Palmer United Party (down 1.5%) and 4.4% for others (down 1.3%). Also included are personal ratings on a five-point scale for Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Abbott’s ratings have measurably weakened since the previous poll of November 21, while Bill Shorten tellingly has a net negative rating overall: obviously a lot of respondents whose incline to give the new guy the benefit of the doubt when given a straight approval-versus-disapproval option instead go for an intermediate option (“satisfactory” in this case) when one is available.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research assumes its traditional role of stick-in-the-mud in recording essentially no change on last week, with the Coalition still leading 51-49 from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition and 37% for Labor, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party each down a point, to 7% and 4% respectively. Also featured: who or what it’s been a good or bad year for (net bad for everything except, curiously, “your workplace” and “you and your family overall”, with “Australian politics generally” scoring 8% good and 70% bad), how the next 12 months are expected to compare (somewhat more optimistic, especially with respect to Australian politics), what the government should do about Qantas (an even divide between four listed options), the importance of car manufacturing (60% important, 33% not important), whether the government should provide subsidies to Holden (45% yes, 42% no) and the level of government support to Toyota should be increased (31% increase, 44% leave as is, 11% decrease).

On a somewhat similar note, The Australian last night published Newspoll figures from last week’s poll showing 15% expect their standard of living to improve over the next six months (up one from last time), 64% expect it to stay the same (up four) and 20% expect it to get worse (down three).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,320 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48”

  1. davidwh @ 2034

    [One of the key differences between the two relates to support for or cynicism about unions and unionism. Another key difference revolves around the balance between economic and social values and outcomes. ]

    The starkest difference is that one seeks to progress the country, the other to keep it the way it is, and sometimes return it to the way it was.

    Getting GM to build cars here after WW2 which kick started us as a manufacturing country, the Snowy Scheme to provide the energy and mass migration to provide the workforce for the outcome from both those initiatives which combined set up Australia for more than 3 decades of post war prosperity.

    Medibank/Medicare, getting more kids into tertiary education, the banking, trade and other reforms of the Hawke/Keating years, etc, which have keep us well fed for more than 2 decades were all Labor. It built modern Australia.

    The Menzies years and those of Fraser and Howard produced very little of long term benefit. Arguably, just the GST. And the Abbott years will be much the same…years of lost opportunities.

  2. mexicanbeemer

    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 6:27 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    True although i don’t see many boats heading from Florida to Cuba.

    Yes Sean there are boats.
    ==================================================

    For over 50 years. And the USA hasn’t been able to stop them despite multi billion dollar budget for the Coast Guard

  3. I received my ALP membership renewal card in the mail today. Does that make me left or right?

    Not an easy question to answer.

    The ALP and Liberal Party are the only parties that have to worry about accommodating a wide and varied membership base.

  4. AA

    [And the USA hasn’t been able to stop them despite multi billion dollar budget for the Coast Guard]

    Tones should offer Obama a lend of Scooter and the Chocolate Soldier over the Xmas holidays here.

    That’ll stop them for sure.

  5. [rummel
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 6:33 pm | PERMALINK
    I love having Mod Lib back.]

    Ta….. but why? WhatIdo?????

    [DisplayName
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 6:51 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel @ 2046
    That’s coz you’re lazy and like to leave the heavy(er) lifting to Mod ]

    HEY ….HANDS OFF OUR LOCAL HERO

  6. slothy the one problem with your analysis, which I am not disputing at one level, is that large chunks of the Australian population have differing perceptions about what constitutes progress and the best policies to achieve their respective views on progress. One of the key differences between some/all? on the left from others on the right is about perceptions of progress and ways to achieve that.

    It’s why we have democratic process and governments. To try and find the balance between differing/competitive views on progress.

  7. Ok ok, that’s coz rummel is working hard on herodem while Mod is a lazy bludger who has time to post crap with the best of them on the internet!

  8. dwh

    [Boerwar when it comes to political expediency and rhetoric I don’t think any of them, Greens included, hold the high moral ground.]

    You are entitled to think that. I can’t recall a more ruthlessly cynical, lying government than Abbott’s Government.

    I can’t recall a bigger set of democracy thieves.

    I can’t recall a government that was more intent on hiding the truth from the electorate.

    I can’t recall a government that was based on relentless, open lying.

    These bastards don’t obfuscate. They lie.

  9. Boerwar, I don’t think that is necessarily at odds with what david said, just that you have to think low and lower rather than high and low :P.

  10. The PPL was the one written in blood?

    Is there any single policy that the promised they would implement that they have implemented?

    Just one?

    Is there any single policy that they have not lied about?

    Just one?

    Is there any single policy that they have not made the most arrant, pathetic excuses about?

    Just one?

    No wonder consumer confidence is collapsing.

  11. [I’m surprised the ALP is that far to the right ..]

    Can I suggest that you take the Compass test and see what answers you would have to give to get to be that far right?

    From memory the current possy [for the ALP] is harder and further right than it was when the Compass did it in 2010.
    And that was further harder and more to the right than it was in 2007.

    Basically, IMO, many ALPers and COALers here are arguing about detail that barely differentiates what are essentially 2 far right authoritarian parties both trending towards One Nation.

    Overton window?

  12. [2059
    DisplayName
    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 6:51 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel @ 2046
    That’s coz you’re lazy and like to leave the heavy(er) lifting to Mod .]

    Yep.

  13. davidwh@2049

    Boerwar when it comes to political expediency and rhetoric I don’t think any of them, Greens included, hold the high moral ground. For all of them the ends always justify the means. Some may be lower down the moral hill than others but where they stand can change with time and circumstances.

    It was the tories who tried to stop Australians from having –

    – A Universal Medical Scheme.

    – Superannuation across the work force.

    – NBN

    – Improved Educational Opportunities for all in society.

    – Fair working conditions and Safety at work.

    The tories have fought tooth and nail on all of these and more.

    Let see if how they stop the NDIS while “massaging” the PPL to make sure the wealthly still do very well out of it.

  14. Boerwar

    If Abbott can dump a signature policy (in fact his only named signature policy) he will dump anything on anyone.

    He was certain the ALP would roll over and pass his CT crap, because that is what he would have done.

  15. fredex

    [Can I suggest that you take the Compass test ]

    I think any such test is easy to manipulate because of the small number of questions and the composition of the questions.

  16. Tony Abbott signals his signature multi-billion dollar paid parental leave scheme may face changes.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-18/abbott-flags-changes-to-paid-parental-leave/5164870
    ====================================================

    I will repeat myself. The Abbott PPL is wrong. Abbott claims the PPL will aid productivity and enable women to engage or re-engage with the work force.

    Bollocks!!! What a sham, only an idiot would think a multi-million dollar PPL would achieve such things.

    What will get women re-engaging/engaging with the work force is a properly funded child care that provides a safe, educational environment for the kids. It needs to be affordable.

    Women will not and cannot return to work if child care does not provide these basics and is affordable. Not much point of re-engaging with the work force if the salary earned does not pay for the child care.

  17. Psephos @ 1968

    [Yes $75,000 pa. Board meets monthly.

    That’s very bad then.]

    I hear she’s opening a B&B to make ends meet.Just waiting to get the shed lined and she’s off!

  18. Abbott…. workers ‘liberated’ when they lose their jobs.

    I look forward to Abbott being ‘liberated’.

    The sooner the better.

    What an arsehat.

  19. [Women will not and cannot return to work if child care does not provide these basics and is affordable. Not much point of re-engaging with the work force if the salary earned does not pay for the child care.]

    Agree,

    When my son started in 08 is cost $75 a day. To put my daughter in Jan 14 will cost $101. Under labor care has become unaffordable. It’s cheaper not to work.

  20. What the hell are the two ships doing meandering around off Christmas Island. They’ve been hanging around for several days.

    What is happening on the island that is stopping them unloading?

    Must be costing a fortune in fuel.

  21. Roxanna (1687),

    Thank you for the kind words.

    The Big Ship (1824),

    Great to hear from you again.

    Yes, my name is a parody of the 2007 poster, Cerdic Conan. He used to refer in glowing terms to John Howard as the Man of Steel, and in conclusion, sign off with, “So says Cerdic Conan”. Initially I presumed he was a satirical character like Kenny Everett’s “Angry of Mayfair”.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTGOrlOSQvI

    However, I eventually twigged that he was a serious fanboy of Little Johnny, so I tweaked his name, referred to Johnny as the Man of Steal, and signed off with, “So sprays Acerbic Conehead”.

    I often wondered where he got to.

    Hmmmm…maybe he’s still around and going under a different name…(cue spooky music)

  22. Mexican

    Cuba might be a third world crap hole but it has a better medical service than the US and huge numbers of US citizens go there for essential health care

    Cuba also trains the medicos for most of South America

  23. Ronnie Biggs has finally shuffled off the stage.

    [British train robber Ronnie Biggs has died aged 84.

    Biggs was part of a gang of robbers, masterminded by Bruce Reynolds, that stopped the Glasgow-Euston overnight mail train in 1963 and escaped with £2.6 million ($4.75 million), an amount equivalent to £40 million today. It was the biggest robbery ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/ronnie-biggs-famous-train-robber-dies-20131218-2zl7f.html#ixzz2noW8WdEp

  24. Well, well. I was only speculating how long it would be before PPL is dumped. Seems moves are afoot.

    [Prime Minister Tony Abbott has signalled his signature multi-billion dollar paid parental leave scheme may face changes, as the Government works to have it passed by the Senate.]

    Abbott is nothing if not entirely predictable.

  25. Isn’t $75000 a lot of money for an unskilled person to get paid to turn up to monthly board meetings? Surely there are better people who would do it for expenses only. Are other government boards as ridiculously lucrative?

  26. poroti

    Posted Wednesday, December 18, 2013 at 7:19 pm | Permalink

    AussieAchmed

    Crikey the skipper of the Ocean princess tanker must be drunk. One of BK’s morteined flies.
    ============================================

    Yep….so many miles for nothing.

    It’s not just the fuel cost it is also the lost work by not getting to the next port to pick up and/or deliver.

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