Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48

The Labor-friendliest polling series offers the Labor-friendliest poll result of the Labor-friendliest polling period in some considerable time.

Morgan has sort-of-published a result showing Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent allocated and previous election preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 a fortnight ago, with primary votes of 40.5% for the Coalition (down one), 38.5% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (up 1.5%) and 3.5% for Palmer United (steady). The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 2879 respondents, suggesting they’ve changed methodology on us again. This information comes from the trend tables on the Morgan site – we are yet to see the usual weekly press release that would tell us more about the methodology.

UPDATE: Here we go. The methodology is still face-to-face plus SMS with no online component, so the larger sample is obviously down to the fact that the poll was conducted over two weekends instead of one.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): And now courtesy of the Seven Network we have a ReachTEL automated phone poll timed to coincide with the 100 day anniversary (no hair-spitting please, Latin scholars) of the Abbott government, which reflects the overall trend in giving Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition and 40% for Labor. It also has 50% rating the government’s performance so far as disappointing, 30% as good and 20% as satisfactory.

UPDATE 3: Full results from ReachTEL here. The full primary votes are 41.4% for the Coalition (down 2.8%), 40.4% for Labor (up an impressive 6.2%), 8.7% for the Greens (down 1.1%), 5.1% for the Palmer United Party (down 1.5%) and 4.4% for others (down 1.3%). Also included are personal ratings on a five-point scale for Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Abbott’s ratings have measurably weakened since the previous poll of November 21, while Bill Shorten tellingly has a net negative rating overall: obviously a lot of respondents whose incline to give the new guy the benefit of the doubt when given a straight approval-versus-disapproval option instead go for an intermediate option (“satisfactory” in this case) when one is available.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research assumes its traditional role of stick-in-the-mud in recording essentially no change on last week, with the Coalition still leading 51-49 from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition and 37% for Labor, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party each down a point, to 7% and 4% respectively. Also featured: who or what it’s been a good or bad year for (net bad for everything except, curiously, “your workplace” and “you and your family overall”, with “Australian politics generally” scoring 8% good and 70% bad), how the next 12 months are expected to compare (somewhat more optimistic, especially with respect to Australian politics), what the government should do about Qantas (an even divide between four listed options), the importance of car manufacturing (60% important, 33% not important), whether the government should provide subsidies to Holden (45% yes, 42% no) and the level of government support to Toyota should be increased (31% increase, 44% leave as is, 11% decrease).

On a somewhat similar note, The Australian last night published Newspoll figures from last week’s poll showing 15% expect their standard of living to improve over the next six months (up one from last time), 64% expect it to stay the same (up four) and 20% expect it to get worse (down three).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,320 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor; ReachTEL: 52-48”

  1. I can’t see how being identified with Labor makes you left. Labor is a centre party, if anything. The Libs are far right, and the Greens are moderate bourgeois left. The Nationals are agrarian socialists.

  2. There is an excellent article by Caroline de Costa in today’s Crikey. Inter alia:

    [I spoke to two women who had recently lost their babies in Darwin; both stated that prior to their babies’ deaths they had presented to the clinic with complaints (decreased foetal movements, baby stopping breathing) that would be taken seriously in a general medical context anywhere else in Australia. Both had been turned away from the clinic over several days.

    While I have no way of corroborating their stories, and it is impossible to say that the stillbirth and the early infant death that later resulted might have been prevented by earlier intervention, their stories are sufficiently consistent and alarming to warrant immediate efforts to improve current care arrangements for asylum seeker women.

    There is an urgent need for improved antenatal care on Christmas Island, and for more designated midwives and doctors with obstetric qualifications to be employed in Darwin.]

  3. Greg Hunt is the anti-environment minister.

    Well, just as well there’s no environment minister then, you know what happens when a minister and an anti-minister meet …

    kablooey!

  4. Could be interesting.

    [Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 7m
    W4Q will release some Redcliffe polling tomorrow]

    Especially with Timmy talking up selling everything that isn’t bolted to the floor. (after getting a date with a man). Pushing out the deficit by billions, abandoning payroll tax cuts and this doozy:

    [The government will also recast the fire levy as a Emergency Management, Fire and Rescue Levy, impose it on all ratepayers and increase it by 6.5 per cent]

    Why do Libs find it so hard to do what they state at elections. Oh and Timmy said Qld may be downgraded again by ratings agencies.

    No probs though we will be in surplus when Qld growth rate hits 6%.

  5. Historically the difference between the ALP and the Liberal Party was basically one was the voice of the unions and the other was not aligned to the unions and in many cases were owners of capital.

    This has largely changed as every worker owns super and many own their own home so the difference today is less particularly

    Today there isn’t a big difference between the ALP right and Liberal Party left but the extremes are as wide apart as ever.

  6. [Abbott has effectively terminated future foreign investment, closed the car manufacturing industry, caused tense relations with overseas neighbours and trading partners and now obviously plans a series of austerity measures that WILL slow the economy.

    Abbott must go!]

    We should use Abbott’s own words about the Holden workers – he deserves to be liberated!

  7. zoidlord

    The evidence of systematic human rights abuses of asylum seekers is plain.

    If the only way in which Australia can ‘manage’ asylum seeker boat borne traffic is by systematically bastardising human beings then the policy is morally utterly bankrupt.

  8. Why would an apparently progressive, occasionaly seeming-leftie person vote Liberal? Because they are not concerned by class formation. Witness:

    – Support for Abbott’s PPL. Socially progressive, apparently, but due to redistribution of wealth upwards (through taxation) reinforces/entrenches (dis)advantage.

    – Anti union

  9. In WA The Barnett Government has abandoned making any decision to build the MAX light rail project until after the next State election, breaking an election promise that the project would be up and running by 2018.
    What he didn’t tell us at the time he told us that this project was fully costed, fully funded,that most of the money would be coming from the Feds. Tony Abbott sorted that out

  10. DisplayName

    Agree i know many people around here that value the environment and care about human rights issues yet once in the polling booth the Liberals win easily.

    This is where economics come into it, a sense that a person should earn their keep and success should be rewarded as opposed to redistributed.

  11. Darren

    [Yes, Negus it was.]

    There’s a story about how that bit got left in what was broadcast that had to do with who was recording who for the whole time. It would be naughty of me to tell. πŸ˜€

  12. beemer @ 2015

    That is true.

    The prosperity derived from economic growth should be shared fairly, that in not necessarily equally, but fairly.

    Everyone based on their needs and wants contributes to an economy in one way or another.

    Personally, I’m against wealth equalisation which is different to sharing prosperity of economic growth…but I don’t want to get into that now πŸ˜›

    p.s. Greens big time into wealth equalisation 😯

  13. The wealthy of this world are only that because others are poor. No amount of work by one person could build the mansions, luxury cars and yachts and big-screen TVs, dig up the diamonds, craft the jewellery, etc., for them self. They only have them because they can force others to do all the work for them. It is not about success being rewarded, it is about power and ignorance.

  14. sohar

    Nah have to disagree.

    Being a worker doesn’t equal being poor.

    Being good at a job can lead to financial wealth just as making smart investment decisions can lead to financial wealth.

    One only needs an opportunity and the right skills to get ahead.

  15. Simon Bolivar liberated South America from the Spanish, Fidel Castro liberated Cuba from the Americans, and Tony Abbott liberated car workers from their jobs!

  16. Zoidy

    Actually my point stands as i am talking about opportunity + skill = potential success

    What you are raising is a matter for FWA and other authorities to deal with.

  17. I don’t think there are any simple explanations for the differences between Labor and Liberal. For starters both parties are a broad church and have many internal differences before even starting to look at external differences.

    One of the key differences between the two relates to support for or cynicism about unions and unionism. Another key difference revolves around the balance between economic and social values and outcomes. However I don’t believe it’s a simple as left and right as there are Liberals more left leaning than some in Labor and vice versa.

  18. dwh

    [I don’t think there are any simple explanations for the differences between Labor and Liberal]

    tsk, tsk.

    One difference is that the Liberals lie all the time, make pathetic excuses and spring unconscionable surprises by the dozens.

    Utterly cynical.

  19. Boerwar @ 1974
    [Keen observers will note that Abbott is stunting in a supermarket while SBY is in Tokyo pursuing the main game:]

    Seems our Asian neighbours are taking a much more sophisticated view of the China-Japan sabre rattling recognising that this presents opportunities in playing off each side without ever actually committing themselves either way. If only we were smart enough to do the same.

  20. I think left vs right is about how Society should be organised. The Right believe in hierarchy and are either in the upper reaches or believe that they can realistically aspire to be there – the ‘aspirationals’. The left are more concerned about fairness. The left believe that those who fall behind need assistance from the rest of us. Those on the right are more likely to believe that those doing badly are lazy or it’s a tough world and someone has to lose. All a gross simplification of complex webs if values and beliefs but I believe it contains a kernel of truth.

  21. Boerwar when it comes to political expediency and rhetoric I don’t think any of them, Greens included, hold the high moral ground. For all of them the ends always justify the means. Some may be lower down the moral hill than others but where they stand can change with time and circumstances.

  22. http://www.politicalcompass.org/aus2013

    Political Compass Election 2013 places the parties thusly, roughly, visit the site for detail.

    Greens – libertarian left
    Labor -medium authoritarian right
    Nationals – even further and more authoritarian right
    Liberals – just as authoritarian, tad more to the right

    The last 2 parties are in the far right corner of the matrix in the same vicinity as One nation.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *