Morgan has sort-of-published a result showing Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent allocated and previous election preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 a fortnight ago, with primary votes of 40.5% for the Coalition (down one), 38.5% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (up 1.5%) and 3.5% for Palmer United (steady). The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 2879 respondents, suggesting they’ve changed methodology on us again. This information comes from the trend tables on the Morgan site – we are yet to see the usual weekly press release that would tell us more about the methodology.
UPDATE: Here we go. The methodology is still face-to-face plus SMS with no online component, so the larger sample is obviously down to the fact that the poll was conducted over two weekends instead of one.
UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): And now courtesy of the Seven Network we have a ReachTEL automated phone poll timed to coincide with the 100 day anniversary (no hair-spitting please, Latin scholars) of the Abbott government, which reflects the overall trend in giving Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition and 40% for Labor. It also has 50% rating the government’s performance so far as disappointing, 30% as good and 20% as satisfactory.
UPDATE 3: Full results from ReachTEL here. The full primary votes are 41.4% for the Coalition (down 2.8%), 40.4% for Labor (up an impressive 6.2%), 8.7% for the Greens (down 1.1%), 5.1% for the Palmer United Party (down 1.5%) and 4.4% for others (down 1.3%). Also included are personal ratings on a five-point scale for Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten. Abbott’s ratings have measurably weakened since the previous poll of November 21, while Bill Shorten tellingly has a net negative rating overall: obviously a lot of respondents whose incline to give the new guy the benefit of the doubt when given a straight approval-versus-disapproval option instead go for an intermediate option (“satisfactory” in this case) when one is available.
UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research assumes its traditional role of stick-in-the-mud in recording essentially no change on last week, with the Coalition still leading 51-49 from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition and 37% for Labor, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party each down a point, to 7% and 4% respectively. Also featured: who or what it’s been a good or bad year for (net bad for everything except, curiously, “your workplace” and “you and your family overall”, with “Australian politics generally” scoring 8% good and 70% bad), how the next 12 months are expected to compare (somewhat more optimistic, especially with respect to Australian politics), what the government should do about Qantas (an even divide between four listed options), the importance of car manufacturing (60% important, 33% not important), whether the government should provide subsidies to Holden (45% yes, 42% no) and the level of government support to Toyota should be increased (31% increase, 44% leave as is, 11% decrease).
On a somewhat similar note, The Australian last night published Newspoll figures from last week’s poll showing 15% expect their standard of living to improve over the next six months (up one from last time), 64% expect it to stay the same (up four) and 20% expect it to get worse (down three).
poroti:
Sorry, what do you mean?
confessions
Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 7:50 pm | Permalink
Evening all.
The polls have continued to improve for LAbor ever since Rudd announced his retirement.
======================================================
And ever since the inept moron Abbott became PM.
People are not impressed with his back flips, followed by a back flip to the original promise, his treatment of Holden, his taking the wage increase from low paid …need I go on? I don’t think so
Right now, Shorten has an Ed Miliband quality about him, to be honest. i.e. he’s ahead at this very moment but only because the Government are sinking (something that can very well be recovered from.) A close contest would probably work against him because “The devil you know” would be preferred. That’s why I hope he uses the Summer break to meet with Australians and get himself known. He should be “Bill Shorten, next PM”, not “Bill Shorten, not Abbott”
Centre:
Enough of the footy when the cricket season has only just got going! Australia looking at a 3-0 sweep of the Ashes heading into the Boxing Day and News Year’s Tests!
[
Evening all.
The polls have continued to improve for LAbor ever since Rudd announced his retirement.
Psephos, I think, predicted this.
It was the clean air that was needed for the punters to finally focus on the Abbott Coalition.
by Darren Laver on Dec 16, 2013 at 7:53 pm
]
Honestly this is truly pathetic, but indicates the continuing butt-hurtedness of fanboys.
The polls were never going to improve until the public vented their dislike of gillard. And that was shown by Rudd recovering 26 seats after her dumping. If they dumped some months earlier as they should then things would have been much closer still.
Just deal with it.
confessions
Attributing Rudd disappearing to Labor’s resurgence is sure to fire up the resident Ruddites.
surely England could have at least won in Perth so that the main test on Boxing Day could have not been a dead rubber.
Where are the match fixers when you need them? 😉
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 2m
The two party preferred measure in Qld as an aggregate is starting to seriously lose it’s yardstick purpose
The tide did not turn because Rudd retired. It turned because the government had looked incompetent with Indonesia, dishonest with Gonski and economically damaging with Holden.
(I note that confessions probably made the original comment as a joke)
Just looked at the score. England on track to make the required runs if they keep their wickets. Bell and Stokes doing well.
[confessions
Attributing Rudd disappearing to Labor’s resurgence is sure to fire up the resident Ruddites.]
Confessions is the very one unable to deal with Gillard’s failure
as a national leader, and Rudd’s superior acceptance among the public.
She will never deal with it of course…and the only way she can
support Gillard is by slagging Rudd, so will it ever be.
poroti:
Oh, of course. I don’t pay any attention to them, so tend not to notice these things. 🙂
Darren L:
If Bell/Stokes keep going as they are they will go a long way towards saving the Test. Highly unlikely they’ll win, chasing 500 on a pitch that looks like a beaten outback rabbit track.
The thing that’s frustrating about this match right now is that pitch is a canyon and there’s only 4 wickets down!
Poroti
She started it. And the last time the Gillard/Rudd war was reignited, when I was around, it was another Gillardista that started it.
The number of seats “saved” by Rudd has now reached a record 26!
Another few months and TP will believe he is still PM
For the record:
Lowest primary vote in 81 years
Senate in the control of the right with an unprecedented (under HC) ONLY ONE quota in WA
The agreed PB KPI benchmarks for Rudd were 64 seats in the house and Labor as the Greens’ toy boys in the Senate
[She started it. And the last time the Gillard/Rudd war was reignited, when I was around, it was another Gillardista that started it.]
I’ve also seen Ruddists “start it”
Both sides are as guilty as each other and both sides are equally as boring.
Centre
My attitude is “Rudd is politically dead. Julia Gillard is politically dead. Abbott’s political career ? It’s Alive ! It’s Alive !! Therefore act accordingly.
[The thing that’s frustrating about this match right now is that pitch is a canyon and there’s only 4 wickets down!]
Can Broad bat? I’m assuming he’ll come in with a runner.
Carey Moore
Bowling in the current conditions would reduce you to a wreck pretty quickly.
Centre:
Sounds like you need a kiss. :kiss:
It was funny how the bookies decided to payout when Gillard was leader and start fresh betting when Rudd took over.
The bookies said, here you go Coalition bettors you’ve already won against Gillard without the election even having to take place, we can start fresh betting against Rudd 😆
I’m not sure of how to describe this;
Abbott and the media rubbished Labor for saying they would put a stop to the FBT rort. Abbott and his right wing media ranted how it was destroying the motor industry.
Then Abbott refuses to subsidise and destroy the very industry that he ranted Labor were destroying.
Abbott and the Liberals are content to keep supporting $1.8 billion in FBT rorts but not $500 million to save 30,000 jobs and a manufacturing industry
Oh dear, Rudd vs Gillard again.
Honestly, either would have been far far better than Abbott so lets just accept that.
Connie
you are a norty girl :kiss:
[Can Broad bat? I’m assuming he’ll come in with a runner.]
I don’t think runners are allowed any more.
Carey Moore
The ABC reporting Broad’s injury this morning quoted him as saying he would bat if required.
They actually paid out early when Rudd was the leader:
http://www.sportsbet.com.au/blog/home/sportsbet-pays-out-early-on-coalition-to-win-2013-election
[I don’t think runners are allowed any more.]
What? Since when?
[The ABC reporting Broad’s injury this morning quoted him as saying he would bat if required.]
I have no doubt he will, if necessary. I was just answering the question about runners.
Could appointing NSD be Bishop staking a claim to the leadership?
It certainly seems to be a “point of differentiation”.
Liberal leadershit ftw!
2011 was when runners were boned.
The runner, as longstanding a part of cricket as the tea interval and bad light stopping play, is to be abolished in all internationals.
The ICC chief executives committee yesterday decided that if a batsman is unable to run he will either have to leave the field or try to deal exclusively in boundaries.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/cricket/article-2008806/Cricket-ditches-runners-injured-batsmen.html#ixzz2ncyXflAe
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
[What? Since when?]
Recently, like a couple of years ago. I vaguely recall someone on channel 9 saying it last summer or so. I think the reasoning was it was because it was abused by slow/tired batsmen who were feigning injury to get a runner.
OC:
I think everyone is just happy that Rudd is gone, allowing the Caucus to focus exclusively on the coalition.
The theme from conservative supporters is that Abbott has had to get all the ‘unpopular things’ out of the way in the early days – so the good times can roll later.
Problem for PMTA and the conservatives, is that they have more or less admitted today that with one a bench mark of bringing the budget back to surplus at least, this could now be a decade away.
All we have really seen from the new government is numerous ‘enquiries’ being promised or initiated, a lot of full and half-hearted attempts to dismantle some Labor programs and a general stumbling about.
The theme now is “just you wait until 2014” as if a few days from now it is all going to change.
Abbott deliberately took pages from the Fraser Book of Post Election wins to tone down (no pun) the political noise and allow punters to forget politics, get back to reading sport from the back page, and try to assume the role of leader.
The real problem for Abbott is that it has not worked.
His supporters liken Abbott to John Howard in the attempt to write off his first 100 days as some kind of aberration.
Look, we are told, see how much Howard was disliked/despised etc. etc. to start with, but at the end he was loved and respected? This was the theme last night on some talk back show I was listening to.
Well, yes, maybe.
So much loved and respected that he lost both government and his seat due to the brilliance of his political judgement.
The tough time for Abbott is to come. He will have to actually make some decisions he alone can wear and not blame Labor. That will be the test.
While he will have the cheer squad from the Murdoch press to help him, it is just as well he does have a majority in the HoR as he is going to need it.
What is it, some 7-10 seats with majorities of less than 2% to protect?
I can’t blame the conservative cheer squad for hoping the ugly caterpillar can turn into a loved and admired butterfly but I think what you sees is what you get – an ugly caterpillar.
While it is cheering for the other side to see Abbott slide so quickly, it is not a death knell. However, it is a damn good start.
16/12 Nett_NEWS by Otiose94 – http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy
[2011 was when runners were boned.]
Crap. How the hell did I sleep through that one!
Carey:
Arjuna Ranatunga was a chief abuser of the ability to have a runner.
As for Abbott getting rid of all the unpopular things early, it is just not true.
He is still there.
@Tricot/185
Coalition Party can try to continue to blame Labor, but it hasn’t worked so far.
Be it Budget, or NBN even.
CM
Why didn’t the “devil you know” argument work for either Rudd or Gillard?
I too thought along those lines just as I accepted the “poorest rating LOTO” argument.
Clearly, there is nothing immutable about either.
People did vote for the Devil they didn’t really know even if he was the poorest rated LOTO in history.
Funny how photo opportunities with the wearing of safety jackets in various factories and workshops have totally disappeared from the scene.
As time goes on maybe Abbott might consider the wearing of one of these items as a health and safety issue?
Do SA PBers have an opinion on Abbott’s “plan” to save SA?
[BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s biggest mining company, will get Australian government help as it consider options for the expansion of its Olympic Dam mine, a plan shelved after metal prices declined.
“I want to ensure that as far as is humanly possible everything that government does is directed towards making it easier, not harder, for this iconic project to go ahead,” Prime Minister Tony Abbott told reporters yesterday in Sydney…
The Melbourne-based miner may need to develop new technology to make a larger Olympic Dam economically competitive and is reviewing its options for the project, Chief Executive Officer Andrew Mackenzie said in September. The venture has an estimated cost of $33 billion, according to Credit Suisse Group AG.
“The Olympic Dam expansion is the best thing that could happen for the economy of South Australia,” Abbott told reporters. “The Olympic Dam expansion, should it take place, would set South Australia up for decades, absolutely decades.”
Abbott declined to say whether he had been involved personally in talks with BHP on its plans for the expansion.
BHP yesterday declined to comment on discussions with the government.]
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-15/abbott-wants-to-ease-bhp-decision-on-expansion-of-olympic-dam.html
[Why didn’t the “devil you know” argument work for either Rudd or Gillard?]
We know why. Some of us have been saying it for 3 years.
#ReachTEL Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 41.4 (-2.4) ALP 40.4 (+6.2) GRN 8.7 (-1.2) PUP 5.1 (-1.5)
@Citizen/193
So he’s ok with BHP setting up South Australia for decades, but not setting up NBN Co/Telstra for Australia for decades to come?
citizen, considering Rann’s government had laid the groundwork for the Olympic Dam expansion and considering Abbott couldn’t wait to pop the champagne when the expansion was shelved, I don’t really care about Abbott’s opinions on our economy.
Frankly, I wish he would just leave us alone. He’s done enough already!
Surprise No 50. Despite not announcing this before the election, the Abbott Government is in talks with the states to take over command and control of the universities, including possibly the black holes in many a university’s unfunded superannuation liabilities. Why command and control of primary and secondary schools is bad and command and control of tertiary education is good is, at this state, a surprise-in-waiting.
@ruawake/195
How did Reachtel get +6.2 for ALP Primary Points?
Latest Polls show good results for the Greens
Morgan says 10%..and some polls a little higher
The Green vote is very strong and is essential to a Labor Victory