A strong result for Labor from Newspoll sees blue and red cross paths on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred aggregate, with Labor seizing its first substantial lead since the aggregate opened for business late last year. Labor has also been boosted to one shy of an absolute majority on the seat projection, with the Coalition crashing to 70. The state breakdowns find Labor back to 2010 territory in Victoria, and doing rather a lot better than that in Queensland and Western Australia.
While mostly the work of Newspoll, part of the shift to Labor is the result of a modelling tweak to deal with the particular difficulty posed by Essential Research, which instead of favouring a particular party over time appears to have a bias towards stability. Bias adjustments based on its pre-election performance have accordingly been correcting for a lean to Labor that disappeared together with the Coalition’s polling ascendancy. So I will instead be plotting the trend of Essential’s deviation from the model’s results, with the bias corrections adjusting over time.
The other big news on the BludgerTrack front is that it is now tracking leadership ratings as well as voting intention. Such data is available fortnightly from Newspoll and monthly from Nielsen and Essential Research, which at this state leaves a fairly shallow pool. It is nonetheless clear from the sidebar that meaningful trends are already evident. I am excluding from consideration the personal ratings from ReachTEL, whose refusal to give respondents an uncommitted option leads to idiosyncratic results.
In other news, Crikey subscribers might care to enjoy my article yesterday on the inquiry into the missing WA Senate ballots.
UPDATE: Kevin Bonham offers an excellent review of what the polls say, and what they mean (and don’t mean).
Fiasco
Someone is telling an awful lot of lies.
[The strained relationship between Essendon and the AFL has been inflamed once more by claims from Tania Hird, the wife of suspended Bombers coach James Hird, that her husband is still being paid while serving a 12-month ban from football, and that league chief executive Andrew Demetriou has always known about it.]
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/tania-hird-takes-aim-at-afl-20131212-2z75l.html#ixzz2nDbCyFeO
ST
Why is Abbort so baggiest equality for all?
ST
Why is Abbort so against equality for all?
re Citizen @151 – …In the end it would not matter if every ABC staffer was sacked and replaced by neo-fascist butt monkeys…
I think you’ve stumbled on Tony Abbott’s plaN for the abc.
Geoff,
Planet Earth to Geoff. The last 3 years saw your precious leader trash the place, burn it down and now you have the temerity to say it wasn’t their fault. He had no plan and he is the Emperor with no clothes. They did everything to destroy this country by their negativity. Well, you reap what you sow and unfortunately we all pay the price.
Labors NBN $72.6 Billion
Coalitions NBN $41 Billion
“@Simon_Cullen: The Greens have already responded to High Court decision, announcing they’ll introduce legislation in Fed Parlt today for same-sex marriage”
[They’re in a bind, because if they give Toyota money they’ll have to explain why they let Holden immolate But they’ll find some way of slipping Toyota some cash.]
I suppose they could do a whip around in the LNP party room – might raise a few yen.
Renai LeMay @renailemay 8m
Summary of NBN press conference: ‘We are destroying the NBN the best way we can.’
Retweeted by Nick Ross
“@sortius: I have no faith in anyone involved with the #NBN now. It’s over people. This is a work of fiction, defying all evidence available #auspol”
@Sean/206
Those numbers are fudged, so they can kill off the NBN.
“@latikambourke: Unlike Gonski, this is a ‘broken promise’ on targets and speed and debt from the Govt that they won’t be able to repair with $1.2b.”
Murdoch has won. Now to sell the ABC.
guytar @ 203: Why is Abbort so against equality for all?
Right wingers believe in inequality. They believe they can do better out of it. Those who are near the top of the social and economic totem poles or those who particularly aspire to being there vote right wing.
Now Jason Clare on 24 now
More broken promises and lies:
Josh Taylor @joshgnosis 11m
Turnbull breaks NBN promise: less than half to get 25Mbps by 2016. http://zd.net/IQopTI
Retweeted by Nick Ross
guytaur
Sortius is spot on.
Zoidlord,
it was an independent inquiry and even had the Coalitions numbers higher.
Please don’t be a complete moron.
Throw this inept, incompetent, rabble of a Government out, now, for the sake of our Grand Children
Of Course 24 breaks away. Too late though. Mr Clare got enough out for people to know.
@Sean/218
No it wasn’t Independent review, this was vested interests review.
So what is the count on the number of broken promises so far by this incompetent administration.
Labors NBN $37 Billion
Coalitions NBN $41 Billion
I note even the Liberal’s number for Labor’s NBN has dropped by about 20 billion or so from the 94 billion spouted at the joint Coalition-News Corp launch of Fraudband several months back. How did they work it out? Double the number they first thought of and add enough zeros to make it bigger than their guess for their own policy?
[ Labors NBN $72.6 Billion
Coalitions NBN $41 Billion]
Labor’s NBN will actually work.
%$#* copper! Are you *&%# kidding me??!!
“@lyndalcurtis: Jason Clare reading from the document he tried to table. #nbn Says it doesn’t recommend building nbn in2 stages: will cost more& take longer”
[Labors NBN $37 Billion
Coalitions NBN $41 Billion]
And that’s only capital costs… how much power do the FTTN nodes require, and what does that cost?
“@CloverMoore: Despite devastating High Court decision, we all know the push for #marriageequality will continue. Love will find a way.”
The Grinches are ruining Christmas for a lot of people:
* GMH,
* Gay couples,
* NBN-heads,
* The tourist industry in Queensland
* Just about all of Tasmania,
* The burgeoning climate Industry,
* The Murray-Darling wetlands,
* Our oceans,
* Parents of school children,
* Manufacturing.
Well… I didn’t vote for these idiots.
Possum makes a point:
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 36s
The awkard reality of having to bring Turnbull’s NBN back “on-balance-sheet” for the budget. It cant stay off book with those returns
Guess who forked out for a crappy FTTN Network?
We do.
[And that’s only capital costs… how much power do the FTTN nodes require, and what does that cost?]
The same cost to run the same equipment at the exchange that gets switched off idiot.
Well, at least there won’t be any more buck-passing on the issue of same-sex marriage. It’s now officially a purely federal issue which starts and ends with federal politicians.
Lefties will of course invest their own conspiracy theories when they get facts they don’t like.
Labors NBN $72.6 Billion
Coalitions NBN $41 Billion
These are the facts as found by an independent inquiry.
@Sean/230
FTTN costs more to run than Exchanges Sean because there is more NODES, it also has to connect the power, which costs money.
ALSO:
http://www.zdnet.com/turnbull-breaks-nbn-promise-less-than-half-to-get-25mbps-in-2016-7000024202/
“The document estimates operating expenses for between AU$35 and AU$55 for each FttN premises per year, including between AU$10 and AU$20 for electricity and between AU$25 and AU$35 for remediation of the copper line. Turnbull said that the assumptions on copper remediation were “very conservative”.”
So jump off a bridge please Sean 🙂
[How did they work it out? Double the number they first thought of and add enough zeros to make it bigger than their guess for their own policy?]
It all went back to a breathless interview on the ABC’s “AM” program with a “telecommunications” consultant whose name escapes me (although I noted it, and Googled it at the time).
He just said that “these types of projects always double in cost”. From that the Coalition got $90 million, and they’ve held onto it ever since.
The “Telecommunications expert” himself disappeared without trace when it turned out he’d only ever managed suburb-level rollouts before, for Telstra, and hadn’t been real good at that, either.
It was a stitch-up.
ST 230
WRONG!
@NickRossTech: Here’s the New Zealand CBA interested to see how ours compares #NBN http://t.co/4s15aBu8Oe
@Sean/232
Those numbers are coming from the Coalition Party Sean, The $72 billion doesn’t add up.
[The Grinches are ruining Christmas for a lot of people:
* Gay couples,]
The High Court weren’t being “grinches”, they were interpreting the law. They base their decision on laws as they are, not as they should be.
I assume those SSMs which took place are no longer recognised.
Carey
The Grinch’s are Team Abbott for opposing equality in Federal Parliament. Not the High Court
Is it just the pre Christmas rush or have so many bad things happened under any previous government in such a short space of time?
“@ABCNews24: Coming up: The Greens to speak on High Court decision to throw out ACT #marriageequality law. Watch LIVE on #ABCNews24 auspol”
Sean Tisme@230
You are the last person who can call others “Idiot”, hypocrite.
Bushfire @ 228
Yep. Miserable Christmas all round – except for a few non-functioning Liberal brains, who think they’re going really well.
I thought “steady” meant they’d f-k things up slowly, but no, they’re hitting their stride early.
LNP doing the dump all the bad news early strategy.
What the do not realise is such bad news they will not recover from.
“@seanparnell: Pity the gay couple who arrived by boat, bought a Holden, got married and have been driving around looking for a better internet signal.”
The most incompetent Government Australia has ever seen.
@guytaur/245
Yup economy goes to shits.
Why did the ALP ACT Legislature introduce a gay marriage bill they knew was illegal??
Perhaps they should stop with leftwing stunts and actually start governing… I’ve noticed Labor state governments seem to introduce gay marriage bills on their death beds…
Don’t blame me, I voted Labor.