BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

Another strong result for Labor from a major pollster pushes them to giddy new heights on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has now branched out into leader satisfaction and preferred prime minister.

A strong result for Labor from Newspoll sees blue and red cross paths on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred aggregate, with Labor seizing its first substantial lead since the aggregate opened for business late last year. Labor has also been boosted to one shy of an absolute majority on the seat projection, with the Coalition crashing to 70. The state breakdowns find Labor back to 2010 territory in Victoria, and doing rather a lot better than that in Queensland and Western Australia.

While mostly the work of Newspoll, part of the shift to Labor is the result of a modelling tweak to deal with the particular difficulty posed by Essential Research, which instead of favouring a particular party over time appears to have a bias towards stability. Bias adjustments based on its pre-election performance have accordingly been correcting for a lean to Labor that disappeared together with the Coalition’s polling ascendancy. So I will instead be plotting the trend of Essential’s deviation from the model’s results, with the bias corrections adjusting over time.

The other big news on the BludgerTrack front is that it is now tracking leadership ratings as well as voting intention. Such data is available fortnightly from Newspoll and monthly from Nielsen and Essential Research, which at this state leaves a fairly shallow pool. It is nonetheless clear from the sidebar that meaningful trends are already evident. I am excluding from consideration the personal ratings from ReachTEL, whose refusal to give respondents an uncommitted option leads to idiosyncratic results.

In other news, Crikey subscribers might care to enjoy my article yesterday on the inquiry into the missing WA Senate ballots.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham offers an excellent review of what the polls say, and what they mean (and don’t mean).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,310 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor”

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  1. From Fairfax:

    [Simple as ABC: Murdoch out to crush competition…

    Murdoch meanwhile is utterly transparent in his motivations. The ABC is a competitor, one funded by the public treasury and thus not amenable to being brutalised by market power in the same way as smaller, weaker challengers, be they businesses like Fairfax or even widely unread individual bloggers who make The Australian’s highly paid economics writers look like idiots.

    In the end it would not matter if every ABC staffer was sacked and replaced by neo-fascist butt monkeys. As long as Aunty is taking a single dollar in potential profit away from the Murdoch Clan, they will try to destroy it.]

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/comment/blogs/blunt-instrument/simple-as-abc-murdoch-out-to-crush-competition-20131212-2z73f.html#ixzz2nDOcZP7m

  2. You know, with all the time that it took to get the Royal Commission into child abuse going, doesn’t it seem a bit insulting, the almost indecent haste with which the Coalition have declared one into matters relating to their political enemies??

    Sad that its terms of reference wont extend to rorting of funds by politicians for weddings and the like.

  3. Abbott’s whole existence in the last 4 years has been bent towards taking the Treasury benches away from the ALP, but now that he has plonked his do-nothing arse in the PM’s plush and comfy Chesterfield, he knows not what to do next. His entire vision of the Prime Ministership has never extended any further than himself occupying the office.

  4. Received this email from Michelle Rowland

    Dear Victoria

    Malcolm Turnbull will shortly release his broadband strategic review and it looks like the Abbott Government is preparing to break another promise.

    The Abbott Government is likely to use the Strategic Review to back out of its election commitment that everybody will have access to at least 25Mbps download speeds by the end of 2016, we must hold them to account and we need your help doing this.

    Can you share this video on Facebook highlighting the Abbott Government’s promise? If you’re not on Facebook email it to five friends instead.

    This is the review that is supposed to detail how much it will cost the taxpayer to rollout his Fraudband plan, how much it will cost Australians to connect and when it will be rolled out.

    Right now communities across Australia are in broadband limbo. There is a digital divide even within cities: those who have Labor’s NBN, and those who don’t.

    Australians want Labor’s NBN. We don’t want the Abbott Government’s Fraudband and we do not want to be left in broadband limbo.

    Michelle Rowland
    Shadow Assistant Minister for

  5. So much to agree with here.

    Holden: this nauseating job-loss porn fails to ask the hard questions
    Holden workers, and their wages, are not to blame. It was not their fault the government won’t do what every other government with an auto sector does. The question is: what’s next?
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/12/holden-this-nauseating-job-loss-porn-fails-to-ask-the-hard-questions?CMP=twt_gu

    And then read this, from the UK guardian the other day, as a warning on where this lousy excuse for a government is taking us.
    Let’s admit it: Britain is now a developing country
    We have iPads and broadband – but also oversubscribed foodbanks. Our economy is no longer zooming along unchallenged in the fast lane, but a clapped-out mot
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/09/britain-now-developing-country-foodbanks-growth

  6. “@drewsheldrick: The High Court decision next hour – and the commentary following – will have an impact on feelings of worth for many gay Australians. ⅓”

    “@drewsheldrick: Having the value of your relationships debated by courts and MPs, and having rights taken away can make you feel less of a person ⅔”

    “@drewsheldrick: If you need help, reach out. If you’re angry, channel it into fighting for national change. You deserve to be treated as equal 3/3”

  7. Is Murdoch media giving us a breathless blow by blow of the the trial of his top operatives in the UK? Presumably not:

    [Rebekah Brooks and Piers Morgan exchanged banter at a dinner party in January 2003 about hacking each other’s messages, the Old Bailey has heard.

    Former solicitor Ambi Sitham said the “pointed” exchanges between the two then-newspaper editors took place at a steak restaurant in south London…

    The case continues.]

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25336084

  8. Unemployment when Howard left government – 4.0%

    Unemployment when Rudd/Gillard/Rudd Circus left government – 5.7%

    Labor are the anti-jobs party of choice

  9. @Sean/166

    lol, Howard left the mining boom unchecked.

    Rudd had GFC, not enough investment for job creation.

    Idiot Sean continued to ignore reality.

  10. [Idiot zoidlord continued to ignore reality.]

    If you block all saving spending measures (even the ones that proposed by labor before the election!) and block the removal of the carbon tax and the mining tax then by extension we are still living under labor policies.

    If you want coalition to own the outcome you have to let them change it first. lol

  11. [lol, Howard left the mining boom unchecked.

    Rudd had GFC, not enough investment for job creation.

    Idiot Sean continued to ignore reality.]

    Reality is much better without Sean.

    Hazard to guess what the unemployment rate will be in 3 years?

  12. Workers at Holden earn too much ?

    [Germany Builds Twice as Many Cars as the U.S. While Paying Its Workers Twice as

    The basic proposition was this: the average auto worker in Germany made $67.14 per hour (2010) in salary in benefits; the average one in the U.S. made $33.77 per hour. Yet Germany’s big three car companies—BMW, Daimler (Mercedes-Benz), and Volkswagen—are very profitable.]

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/frederickallen/2011/12/21/germany-builds-twice-as-many-cars-as-the-u-s-while-paying-its-auto-workers-twice-as-much/

  13. Like I said, this dopey govt is now going to throw a bucket load of money at Toyota so that we have HALF a car industry. That’s what I call strategic planning – not.

  14. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN @178

    Maybe not .

    [Tony Abbott defends Holden stance, rules out more money for Toyota

    TONY Abbott has declared Toyota won’t get additional money from taxpayers to ensure its survival.

    He said Toyota’s future was, in the end, “a matter for Toyota”.

    “One thing that we weren’t going to do was just throw more money at a problem,” Mr Abbott said.
    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbott-defends-holden-stance-rules-out-more-money-for-toyota/story-fn59niix-1226781280825

  15. [“@ABCNews24: .@TonyabbottMHR: The challenge now is to ensure that #Toyota continue manufacturing in this country #auspol #Holden”]

    How does he intend to do this? Will he demand that they don’t leave the country? Will he tell Hockey to keep his mouth shut?

  16. [That’s how Parliament works, Geoff, this is not a country where it is a Communist lead Goverment.]

    If you want the coalition to Own the outcome you have to let them change the outcome.
    What part of that has anything to do with communist lead government?
    please feed your hamster is is getting tired.

  17. Sean,

    Please enlighten us with interest rates when Howard left and when Rudd/Gillard left? Yes, lower under ALP than Coalition.

    CPI – Howard 3.1%. Rudd/Gillard 2.2%

    See others can play your stupid games!

  18. “@political_alert: “The Marriage Act does not now provide for the formation or recognition of marriage between same sex couples.” -High Court judgement #auspol”

  19. @Geoff/183

    It was your party that said “Opposition will Oppose” or something to that effect.

    Labor are just returning the favor.

    Now, go back to your box, and come up with something new to blame Labor with, OR change your politics to suit the Australians, and not the Americans.

  20. “@ABCNews24: #BREAKING: NBN strategic review has found the Coalition’s plan has blown out by $11.5 billion to $41 billion #NBN #auspol”

  21. POROTI – Thanks. They’re in a bind, because if they give Toyota money they’ll have to explain why they let Holden immolate But they’ll find some way of slipping Toyota some cash.

  22. [It was your party that said “Opposition will Oppose” or something to that effect.]

    Poor hamster must dead.
    Oppositions can oppose but you cannot then blame an outcome on someone who had nothing to do with its course.

  23. CITIZEN – A letter is already on its way to Toyota demanding that it state all of its future intentions by 5pm today – otherwise, piss off back to Japan!!!!

  24. “@latikambourke: ‘More debt’ will cover the cost blowout in the Government’s NBN plan which will deliver slower speeds later than the 2016 promised date.”

  25. ALP’s ACT Gay Marriage Laws deemed Illegal by High Court

    Why did the ALP ACT Government pull a cruel hoax on gay couples by introducing legislation they knew was not lawful and giving gay couples false hope??

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