Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The first Newspoll since the government’s self-inflicted Gonski wound finds the pollster joining Nielsen in the 52-48 club.

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll’s third entry in the life of the new government has Labor hitting a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, after leads of 56-44 and 52-48 for the Coalition in the first and second polls. This is Labor’s first two-party lead in Newspoll since the poll of March 18-20, 2011, which was itself an aberrant Labor-friendly result that emerged a month after Julia Gillard announced plans to introduce a carbon tax. Primary votes are 38% for Labor, up three on a fortnight ago, with the Coalition down three to 40% and the Greens down one to 9%.

UPDATE: James J in comments relates that Tony Abbott’s approval rating has maintained its downward trend across the three polls, going from 45% to 42% and now to 40%, while his disapproval has progressed upwards from 38% to 42% to 45%. Bill Shorten’s approval has gone from 37% to 39% to 44%, while his disapproval was 24% in the first poll to 27% in the second and third. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is also narrowing, going from 46-30 in the first poll to 44-33 in the second to 41-34 in the third.

UPDATE 2: The Australian’s report is here. Stay tuned for more polling action courtesy of Essential Research at around 2pm EST tomorrow – I believe we’re due for Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which should be interesting.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The Essential Research fortnightly average reflects the move to Labor in its characteristic slow and steady way, moving one point to Labor on two-party preferred for the second week in a row to reduce the Coalition lead to 51-49. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 37%, the Coalition and the Greens steady on 44% and 8%, and the Palmer United Party is up one to 5%. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is unchanged on last month at 45%, but his disapproval rating is up six to 46%. Bill Shorten on the other hand finds things going his way as the undecided jump off the fence, his approval up eight to 39% and disapproval up four to 31%. Similarly to Newspoll, Abbott holds a 43-33 lead as preferred prime minister, narrowing from 42-27 last time.

Questions on education provide the government with better results than it might have feared: its handling of education has 35% approval and 50% disapproval, while Labor’s lead as better party to handle the issue is only 36-33, although there’s also a 7% Greens component in the mix. Only 26% believe all schools will be better off under the new government, 26% believe only private schools will and 22% believe no schools will, with 2% signing on to the unlikely proposition that only public schools will. Also canvassed are the importance of unions “for Australian working people today” (57% important, 34% not important), and the importance of politicians keeping their promises.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,518 thoughts on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 49 of 51
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  1. Tanya Plibersek would have made a much better leader than Gillard who was the least competent leader the ALP has had in the last 40 years with the possible exception of Mark Latham.

    Or Rudd.

  5. Zoid
    The asx is up from previous levels because the ALP were thrown out. It has now retreated because of legacy issues due to budget and blocked business friendly legislation. But don’t worry it only makes up a rather large % of most Aussies superannuation and if it continues to go down just have some money ready for the great ALP surge.

  6. Gillard was one of the best PM’s the country has had. She legislated a vast majority of Labor’s policy platform, which after all, is the sole reason for your party being elected to govt.

    And the fact that the Tories are spinning hell for leather in an attempt to undo her government’s legacy is (to me) testament to their worth and benefit to the country.

  8. Hey ST – is the sharemarket today higher or lower than when the LNP was elected?

    Who cares it’s where it ends up that matters.

    The ASX Today is 1500 Points lower than it was in late 2007… I guess that’s Abbott’s fault as well right??

  9. Tisme, you’ve got to be thick.

    For the third time, the ASX is Underperforming global markets since the election of the Coalition government.

    Don’t make me abuse you, I’m getting close!

  13. Sean Tisme

    Posted Wednesday, December 11, 2013 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    Hey ST – is the sharemarket today higher or lower than when the LNP was elected?

    Who cares it’s where it ends up that matters.

    The ASX Today is 1500 Points lower than it was in late 2007… I guess that’s Abbott’s fault as well right??
    =============================================

    Yep

  14. Don’t make me abuse you, I’m getting close!

    Take a number. 🙂

    And when ST goes off shift, i’m sure the more polite but equally stupid Petty One will be along.

  15. You are a vacuous little twit ST.

    If you invest money in the share market based on what happens on a weekly basis, you deserve to lose your money.

    The sharemarket is a long term game, not a week by week game.

    Come back to me in 12 months and if it’s lower than it is now you might actually have a point.

  16. 2412
    Look at the charts. Then as I have done watch the overseas business channels who only talk business. Labor has been the best friends the short sellers have ever had.

  18. The government has requested cattle importers to temporarily halt bringing in livestock from Australia pending the completion of diplomatic moves to restore bilateral ties damaged by recent spying allegations.

    Following reports of the surveillance, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono suspended cooperation on three fronts, namely military and defense; joint-patrols on people smuggling; and intelligence and information sharing with Australia.

    Cooperation in other sectors, such as trade and agriculture, have apparently now also been affected.
    ———————————————————

    An on-going Abbott screw up…..how many industries and international relationships can this inept, incompetent useless Govt destroy

  21. Come back to me in 12 months and if it’s lower than it is now you might actually have a point.

    ST, the market will go up and down, but for consistency we will always look to you and your status of VI, resident vacuous twit, and purveyor of mindlessly partisan idiotic posts. 🙂

    Of course, you, always have a point. Its to do with the shape of your head.

  22. It would seem that a surefire path to wealth is to buy shares indiscriminately when a Coalition government comes to power, and dump them all when it’s voted out. I’m surprised nobody’s thought of it before.

  23. It would seem that a surefire path to wealth is to buy shares indiscriminately when a Coalition government comes to power, and dump them all when it’s voted out. I’m surprised nobody’s thought of it before.

    Note to all. William is not a financial adviser and past performance cannot be taken to imply future returns. 🙂

  24. The Dow, the Dax, the FTSE, have all outperformed the ASX since the election of the Abbott government.

    The ASX started losing ground since Abbott offended Indonesia. The ASX lost further ground since Abbott rejected the Graincorp bid.

    The ASX lost ground today, HEAVILY, after news was announced of the GMH decision.

    All this with a falling $AU.

    Traders and pro investors are not stupid, not only do they understand the foreign investment consequences of the Abbott government decisions;

    they are sh!tting themselves over Coalition planned austerity.

    I knew this would happen, I made a post expressing so before the election 😎

  27. Sean Tisme

    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    Silmaj,

    please take over I need my sleep and there is no talking sense
    ==================================================

    Your “no talking sense” is not restricted to you needing sleep.

    You are able to not talk any sense consistently and constantly.

  29. St 2426
    Partisanship is most always devoid of fact however if you were to plot the polls against the share market it come up with results that show that ALP is not market friendly. But as I said b4 who cares the ASX is only a small part of people’s super and the labor way is best for every body.

  31. For a blog that scored so well on that mini IQ test there has been a shitload of dumb comments tonight.

    Has anyone asked Shorten what a Labor government elected in 2016 would be willing to do to get GM to reverse the decision to leave in 2017?

    The closure would be almost complete by then. Holden would have already ramped up production in other countries and most of the workers would have quit by then.

    Holden is gone.

  32. Sean Tisme

    Posted Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 12:07 am | Permalink

    AA,

    While I’m sure Williams jests, please try to digest this one… hmmm… now what happened late November 2007?? Anyone?!
    —————————————

    Going down hill since October….

  34. Again, after the GMH decision was announced, the ASX started falling heavily.

    It is expected that Victoria will slow and SA could well go into recession.

    Before you go to bed Tisme; go check the overseas markets NOW!

    The FTSE up 27 points, the Dax up 34 points.

    Who do you blame?

    The Abbott government 😎

    You should be proud 😯

  35. AA,

    While I’m sure Williams jests, please try to digest this one… hmmm… now what happened late November 2007?? Anyone?!

    YOU FUCKED YOURSELF?

  37. It is expected that Victoria will slow and SA could well go into recession.

    SA currently is in recession.

    The main economic activity is all the government supported construction projects currently taking place in the city.

  39. Centre
    The Aus market has been shackled by the ALP Spector for six years now. It improved after labor was tossed however your loon friends and labor are determined to give the short sellers the ammunition to stay around.

  40. SA currently is in recession

    I don’t think it technically is. I believe I saw something the other day that showed it was technically still in growth (albeit much more slowly than the rest of the country, except Tasmania) but I could’ve wrong.

  42. fess

    I think Psephos meant if Shorten were asked now, not in 2016. At least that was my interpretation of his comment.

    That’s how I interpreted it as well.

    Nothing Shorten says could keep the door open and I’m sure he knows it. Devereaux would say exactly that if Labor says otherwise.

  43. William, if you’re still around: will there be a Christmas break on this blog this year and, if so, what will be the dates?

    Reckon I’ll just leave it running this time. Comments activity is low at that time anyway, so it’s not as if it saves me much work. Besides, it isn’t good for business.

  44. Clipper Round the World Yacht Race thanks Albany WA.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cNOQn0I6o0&list=UULXyzu774uiZdo8xWJwfFvw

    I am terrified of the ocean, and resist going into the sea even to swim at beaches, but the Clipper Race experience we had here last week was just incredible. These are everyday people like me who take to yachting with hardly any experience, and not only survive the journey, but see and experience some incredible things.

    If I had the $70K or so to enter, I might just consider doing it when it starts again in 2 years time. I reckon it’d be something you’d never forget.

  50. Discussion on Bloomberg puts a hole though the Minister’s claim on 730 that productivity being an issue.

    Apparently the global car industry has an over supply of inventory.

    Increasing productivity may worsen that.

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