Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The first Newspoll since the government’s self-inflicted Gonski wound finds the pollster joining Nielsen in the 52-48 club.

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll’s third entry in the life of the new government has Labor hitting a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, after leads of 56-44 and 52-48 for the Coalition in the first and second polls. This is Labor’s first two-party lead in Newspoll since the poll of March 18-20, 2011, which was itself an aberrant Labor-friendly result that emerged a month after Julia Gillard announced plans to introduce a carbon tax. Primary votes are 38% for Labor, up three on a fortnight ago, with the Coalition down three to 40% and the Greens down one to 9%.

UPDATE: James J in comments relates that Tony Abbott’s approval rating has maintained its downward trend across the three polls, going from 45% to 42% and now to 40%, while his disapproval has progressed upwards from 38% to 42% to 45%. Bill Shorten’s approval has gone from 37% to 39% to 44%, while his disapproval was 24% in the first poll to 27% in the second and third. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is also narrowing, going from 46-30 in the first poll to 44-33 in the second to 41-34 in the third.

UPDATE 2: The Australian’s report is here. Stay tuned for more polling action courtesy of Essential Research at around 2pm EST tomorrow – I believe we’re due for Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which should be interesting.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The Essential Research fortnightly average reflects the move to Labor in its characteristic slow and steady way, moving one point to Labor on two-party preferred for the second week in a row to reduce the Coalition lead to 51-49. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 37%, the Coalition and the Greens steady on 44% and 8%, and the Palmer United Party is up one to 5%. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is unchanged on last month at 45%, but his disapproval rating is up six to 46%. Bill Shorten on the other hand finds things going his way as the undecided jump off the fence, his approval up eight to 39% and disapproval up four to 31%. Similarly to Newspoll, Abbott holds a 43-33 lead as preferred prime minister, narrowing from 42-27 last time.

Questions on education provide the government with better results than it might have feared: its handling of education has 35% approval and 50% disapproval, while Labor’s lead as better party to handle the issue is only 36-33, although there’s also a 7% Greens component in the mix. Only 26% believe all schools will be better off under the new government, 26% believe only private schools will and 22% believe no schools will, with 2% signing on to the unlikely proposition that only public schools will. Also canvassed are the importance of unions “for Australian working people today” (57% important, 34% not important), and the importance of politicians keeping their promises.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,518 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 46 of 51
1 45 46 47 51
  1. [f we can’t make cars anymore, perhaps we can make these beautiful babies instead.]

    It shocks me how contemporary (right) ALP supporters are actually more at home with modern “Liberals”..

  2. Fessy

    I can confirm that there are many in the business community scratching their heads at this government.

    There actually been comments made to the effect that this lot make Swannie and co look good.

  3. The Monkey wants to stop playing politics.

    Can you believe it? 😆

    Holden gone, Toyota to follow…all under Abbott’s watch.

    Abbott was meant to stop the boats, not stop the cars!

    The apologists for Murdoch’s Monkey are doing some serious rear ending all over his media outlets as we speak.

  4. tone and hockey must be popping champagne – first victory for govt – they stood up to a multi national and won – they are rich bastards protected by parliament – they care for nothing but their party room

  5. [George Megalogenis ‏@GMegalogenis 5h
    Word from top end of town: business gobsmacked that a Liberal treasurer thought it OK to yell at Holden. Not the govt. they expected.]

    Poor wittle rich thugs from the “top end of town”, how dare anyone yell at us!!!!

    cry! cry!

    spew!!!!

  6. This little black duck
    Posted Wednesday, December 11, 2013 at 10:13 pm | PERMALINK
    paaptsef@2240
    why did hockey dare GM to leave?
    To destroy unions and get ready for WorstPlaces II.

    ——–makes sense, as good as any explanation. destroy jobs and destroy unions. what next, half australian mines?

    will the gg step in? whitlam looks like a saviour compared to this mob

  7. 2250
    The great USA up until the other day was the major shareholder. It is of no suprise that shortly after the US govt got out that there would be an official announcement of restructuring. People in the game have known quite some time this was going to happen.

  8. paaptsef

    Holden made a business decision to protect shareholder value and since they couldn’t find assistance of course they have packed up and gone home.

    Holden have made a level headed business decision

  9. silmaj

    Even so Holden are a business and were unable to reach an agreement with the Government so no deal was reached and no further business will occur.

  10. [o please they are not all rich, sure some are but most are on less than 100k a year.]

    How out of touch you are mate.

    I live on $40,000 a year and consider myself rich.

  11. 1. The Graincorp decision – bad for the economy.

    2. The GMH decision – bad for the economy (VIC now certain to be facing slower growth/SA facing recession).

    Both the above, very bad for the ASX. I have told many that an Abbott government would be bad for the stock market.

  12. The soluton according to Henry and thus Socrates is to tax cash flow:

    [
    Recommendation 55: Over time, a broad-based cash flow tax — applied on a destination basis — could be used to finance the abolition of other taxes, including payroll tax and inefficient State consumption taxes, such as insurance taxes. Such a tax would also provide a sustainable revenue base to finance future spending needs.
    ]

  13. [ The ALP is like a cuttlefish, still looking for a backbone. ]
    Whereas the LNP have found a backbone. It’s a fossilized one that once belonged to a dinosaur.

  14. [There actually been comments made to the effect that this lot make Swannie and co look good.]

    Seriously?!

    That’s some admission from business.

  15. [ Holden made a business decision to protect shareholder value and since they couldn’t find assistance of course they have packed up and gone home.

    Holden have made a level headed business decision ]
    Yes back to the 700 million per year cost of paying unemployment benefits to 50,000 people

  16. [Actually the “truth” is in the middle. Holden didn’t put in for the tender of the bomb proof car, but they can be retrofitted at great cost locally… but not to international standards]

    Abbott himself seems to have realized that, with the way things are going, he will need a bomb-proof car.

    But just for a a moment imagine the hullabaloo if Julia Gillard had ordered a BMW for the “C*1” number plate. We’d have never heard the end of it.

  17. Question Time tomorrow is going to be worse for the government.
    Labor has more ammunition.

    Same apples to the media as they get feedback from the population.

    Team Abbott are going to sink to such owe I think they are going to be jealous of McMahon period polling.

  18. paaptsef 2240

    good question, there is a lot in the strategy here I am not getting. I do not believe the explanation that the LNP (or parts thereof) have been caught unawares. It has a lot of the Waterfront about it – decimating the base of a large union to consolidating power? Can that be it? Do they think they could lay the blame on Labor by bringing it on ASAP?

  19. 2272
    Our order book for components for Holden tells the true story. The fact that the new early design work had not started is another factor. Their declining sales were forcing car costs up and no matter what govt did there was little sign this was going to change. But go your hardest blame Abbott.

  20. swamprat, they listened to your Greens and lost plenty of skin and bone.

    But don’t worry, now they know!

    Keep away from the Greens, they’re bad news, they’ll never make the same mistake again.

  21. mexicanbeemer

    [I’m pleased that you feel rich on 40k a year but that is well below the national average.]

    i am sorry i meant to type $45,000 not $40,000.

    i know it is below the national average but globally it is rich.

    US dominance has destroyed Australian culture.

  22. Swamprat
    [I live on $40,000 a year and consider myself rich.]

    Good to hear!

    There a people out there that earn a few hundred thousand a year and consider themselves poor.
    I suspect no amount of money could fill the void.

  23. Re. Peter Hartcher, this is the third colum of his in recent weeks where he has advanced a cunning plan for the government to sieze the disaster issue of the day and turn it into an electoral triumph.

    First was Rorts.

    Next was Indonesia.

    Now it’s GMH.

    In all three Pin-Stripe Pete had the solution at hand… if only they would listen to him!

    Poor bastard. He was a Rudd Man. They’ll never forgive him for that.

Comments Page 46 of 51
1 45 46 47 51

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *