Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The first Newspoll since the government’s self-inflicted Gonski wound finds the pollster joining Nielsen in the 52-48 club.

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll’s third entry in the life of the new government has Labor hitting a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, after leads of 56-44 and 52-48 for the Coalition in the first and second polls. This is Labor’s first two-party lead in Newspoll since the poll of March 18-20, 2011, which was itself an aberrant Labor-friendly result that emerged a month after Julia Gillard announced plans to introduce a carbon tax. Primary votes are 38% for Labor, up three on a fortnight ago, with the Coalition down three to 40% and the Greens down one to 9%.

UPDATE: James J in comments relates that Tony Abbott’s approval rating has maintained its downward trend across the three polls, going from 45% to 42% and now to 40%, while his disapproval has progressed upwards from 38% to 42% to 45%. Bill Shorten’s approval has gone from 37% to 39% to 44%, while his disapproval was 24% in the first poll to 27% in the second and third. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is also narrowing, going from 46-30 in the first poll to 44-33 in the second to 41-34 in the third.

UPDATE 2: The Australian’s report is here. Stay tuned for more polling action courtesy of Essential Research at around 2pm EST tomorrow – I believe we’re due for Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which should be interesting.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The Essential Research fortnightly average reflects the move to Labor in its characteristic slow and steady way, moving one point to Labor on two-party preferred for the second week in a row to reduce the Coalition lead to 51-49. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 37%, the Coalition and the Greens steady on 44% and 8%, and the Palmer United Party is up one to 5%. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is unchanged on last month at 45%, but his disapproval rating is up six to 46%. Bill Shorten on the other hand finds things going his way as the undecided jump off the fence, his approval up eight to 39% and disapproval up four to 31%. Similarly to Newspoll, Abbott holds a 43-33 lead as preferred prime minister, narrowing from 42-27 last time.

Questions on education provide the government with better results than it might have feared: its handling of education has 35% approval and 50% disapproval, while Labor’s lead as better party to handle the issue is only 36-33, although there’s also a 7% Greens component in the mix. Only 26% believe all schools will be better off under the new government, 26% believe only private schools will and 22% believe no schools will, with 2% signing on to the unlikely proposition that only public schools will. Also canvassed are the importance of unions “for Australian working people today” (57% important, 34% not important), and the importance of politicians keeping their promises.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,518 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Mb
    [I repeat what i have said many times before, this government seems to have no business experience and no workforce management experience.]
    True. Unfortunately it was also true of the previous two governments as well, as Kevin Rudd amply proved. Based on some emails from Gillard’s press advisor, workforce management skills were not high there either.

    Most politicians have no experience running anything larger than their office. As long as they take advice from those who know, that isn’t a problem. It is the self delusion that they know more than sound bytes that does them in.

  2. [
    Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, December 11, 2013 at 9:39 pm | …
    Time for the reforms studiously avoided since Howard.
    ]
    And what reforms would you suggest.

    There is one issue for Australia, the high dollar. By the time it comes back to a reasonable level there will be no manufacturing left.

    We are suffering from the dutch disease, labor has a solution, tax the miners, reduce company tax, but they did not hold their nerve for good political reasons.

    Giving subsidies to the industry causing the problem is beyound stupid.

  3. I’m not an expert on Manufacturing but 16% seems quite acceptable for a business to carry, the only time that might be an issue was if the business was suffering cash flow issues and needed to adjust and labour costs do tend to stick out on a balance sheet.

    When preparing a Cost Analysis there the impact of labour costs needs to be taken against sales and other cost issues, Labour tends to be a fixed cost.

  4. [ Holden did not quote on the govt tender for these cars. You might wonder why? ]
    because massive taxpayer funded subsidies to mining companies are keeping new technology beyond the reach of Australian vehicle manufacturers?

  5. The Government was seeking a World Standard Terrorist/Bomb Proof cars for shuttling around PM and out dignitaries.

    Unfortunately Holden provided a quote for a car that:

    1. Didn’t meet international terrorism standards
    2. Was actually significantly more expensive than the competitors who did provide international terrorist standards

  6. Just picture the scene

    2016 election Tony turns up in Elizabeth hops out of his BMW for the opening of the Liberal Party campaign office for the seat of Wakefield

  7. Ausdavo 2199

    That is a very complex question. Briefly the main costs of car production are development and tooling up the factory. Marginal cost per unit is then far less, especially if the plant is highly automated. So if you cannot recover those development and factory set up costs on a large production run, then you may go broke.

    This is not to say labor costs are nothing, because between two models both on long production runs, they still may give the edge.

    We cannot beat places like Thailand for labor costs, and should not try. Either go for low volume/high value niche models, built to very high quality standards, or automate heavily (so still goodbye to low skill assembly line jobs) or give up. Both of the first options require capital investment.

  8. Another lie, first it was “they didn’t quote”, now it is “didn’t offer what we wanted”. Can this government be honest about anything?

    [Sean Tisme
    Posted Wednesday, December 11, 2013 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    .
    international terrorist standards
    ]
    If that is what you care about buy a BashMaster

  9. [Sean

    You do realise that BMW’s are expensive vehicles.]

    Yes and a bomb proof Beemer is significantly cheaper than a Commodore pretending to be bomb proof.

  10. kennedy steered the delicate race rights through through careful phone calls – one word out of place and all deals were off … the tapes exist .. it is a type of negotiation that govt has no clue about, gentle as goes. holden waited and waited for some deal some reassurance, and along come the fat brigade farting his ideas in public

  11. [The ABC reported today that 4 tenders were received and Holden did not participate.]

    Other news outlets, including from the horse’s mouth (ie Holden) itself have said otherwise.

  12. [What happens next for Holden workers?
    By Greg Jericho
    Posted Wed 11 Dec 2013, 8:46am AEDT

    The production line of GM Holden’s seven millionth vehicle in Australia on August 18, 2008
    PHOTO: Once the 10th largest employer of full-time males, the automotive industry is now the 21st. (Holden: AAP)
    While Australia as a whole would likely move on from the death of Holden, it wouldn’t be so easy for the local communities that rely on it, writes Greg Jericho.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-11/jericho-what-happens-next-for-holden-workers/5146848

  13. [Prime Minister Tony Abbott has told Parliament it is a ‘‘sad, bad day’’ for Australian manufacturing and has pledged a strategic response to help workers affected by Holden’s decision on Wednesday to stop making cars locally from 2017.

    But Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has accused the government of daring Holden to sack people, saying the Coalition knows the ‘‘price of everything and the value of nothing’’.]

    http://smh.drive.com.au/motor-news/holden-to-cease-manufacturing-in-2017-20131211-2z5mp.html

  14. Goodness – in just 100 days or so, Abbott’s face being burnt by and angry crown in Jakarta and bomb-proof German cars for our Dear Leader on home turf.

    Peace and prosperity in our times – LNP style.

  15. Frednk
    [And what reforms would you suggest.

    There is one issue for Australia, the high dollar. By the time it comes back to a reasonable level there will be no manufacturing left.]
    There is lots more to it than that. As I have said here many times, the Henry tax review lays it out well. I often wonder how many in Labor ever read it. The tax system gives too many benefits to lazy capital in real estate and not enough to productive capital investment.

    Night all. Night Holden.

  16. [ It isn’t just the direct Holden jobs lost, but those employed in the sector which will be impacted by the loss of Holden. ]

    Tone is not worried by such things – those bastards would never have voted LNP anyway!

  17. confessions@2196

    GERARD Henderson will join The Australian as a weekly columnist from next week.

    “It’s nice to be back; it’s only been a quarter of a century,” said Henderson, who wrote for The Australian from 1987-89. “And it’s great to be back with Phillip Adams.”

    The executive director of the forum, The Sydney Institute, will continue his 23-year run filing weekly columns.


    Just what the Australian needs: another ageing white male apologist for the Liberal party!

    You really do have a problem with mature adults, particularly if they have a Y-chromosome.

  18. I said, in September, “you ain’t seen nothin’ yet”.

    Now I say “you ain’t seen nothin’ yet”.

    The government is intent on destroying the workers of Your Nation.

  19. [Just picture the scene
    2016 election Tony turns up in Elizabeth hops out of his BMW for the opening of the Liberal Party campaign office for the seat of Wakefield]

    Abbott won’t bother with Wakefield. He’s not going to win it. He’ll might make a quick appearance or two but it won’t be on his priority list.

  20. Socrates,

    How many reactionaries have dismissed Henry without reading it? Can’t read, can’t add, can’t subtract, can’t be bothered.

    Re-education camps for the lot of The Idiot’s mob.

  21. I am serious in suggesting that Australia will not be an independent country until we free ourselves from the evil Murdoch/Mordor control.

    I hope the ALP is working on a plan to free us from that criminal corporation.

  22. [Just picture the scene
    2016 election Tony turns up in Elizabeth hops out of his BMW for the opening of the Liberal Party campaign office for the seat of Wakefield]

    At least it’s bomb and bullet proof

  23. [George Megalogenis ‏@GMegalogenis 5h
    Word from top end of town: business gobsmacked that a Liberal treasurer thought it OK to yell at Holden. Not the govt. they expected.]

    Not good signs.

  24. silmaj

    Well they are in the business of protecting shareholder value and wanted to enter to a business arrangement but were meet with a no thanks so no wonder they haev left.

    A business cannot function if it doesn’t have secure cash flow.

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