GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll’s third entry in the life of the new government has Labor hitting a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, after leads of 56-44 and 52-48 for the Coalition in the first and second polls. This is Labor’s first two-party lead in Newspoll since the poll of March 18-20, 2011, which was itself an aberrant Labor-friendly result that emerged a month after Julia Gillard announced plans to introduce a carbon tax. Primary votes are 38% for Labor, up three on a fortnight ago, with the Coalition down three to 40% and the Greens down one to 9%.
UPDATE: James J in comments relates that Tony Abbott’s approval rating has maintained its downward trend across the three polls, going from 45% to 42% and now to 40%, while his disapproval has progressed upwards from 38% to 42% to 45%. Bill Shorten’s approval has gone from 37% to 39% to 44%, while his disapproval was 24% in the first poll to 27% in the second and third. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is also narrowing, going from 46-30 in the first poll to 44-33 in the second to 41-34 in the third.
UPDATE 2: The Australian’s report is here. Stay tuned for more polling action courtesy of Essential Research at around 2pm EST tomorrow – I believe we’re due for Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which should be interesting.
UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The Essential Research fortnightly average reflects the move to Labor in its characteristic slow and steady way, moving one point to Labor on two-party preferred for the second week in a row to reduce the Coalition lead to 51-49. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 37%, the Coalition and the Greens steady on 44% and 8%, and the Palmer United Party is up one to 5%. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is unchanged on last month at 45%, but his disapproval rating is up six to 46%. Bill Shorten on the other hand finds things going his way as the undecided jump off the fence, his approval up eight to 39% and disapproval up four to 31%. Similarly to Newspoll, Abbott holds a 43-33 lead as preferred prime minister, narrowing from 42-27 last time.
Questions on education provide the government with better results than it might have feared: its handling of education has 35% approval and 50% disapproval, while Labor’s lead as better party to handle the issue is only 36-33, although there’s also a 7% Greens component in the mix. Only 26% believe all schools will be better off under the new government, 26% believe only private schools will and 22% believe no schools will, with 2% signing on to the unlikely proposition that only public schools will. Also canvassed are the importance of unions “for Australian working people today” (57% important, 34% not important), and the importance of politicians keeping their promises.
[We only have 3 short weeks before Christmas for the Abbott guvmint to shower down more hideousness]
This will be a problem for the next Cabinet meeting. “What haven’t we fucked up yet, guys? There must be something! Christopher? Joe? Barnaby? Actually we haven’t really fucked up Defence yet. David, you pompous drone, what have you been doing?”
davidwh Posted Wednesday, December 11, 2013 at 8:49 pm @ 2123
Actually Ford are closing because no one is buying Falcons. Commodore sales are still ok. Holden is closing because it’s not profitably building cars in Australia without large subsidies. As the author of the post at http://www.linkedin.com/groups/Is-collective-anger-causing-federal-3852111.S.5816250822790500352?trk=groups%2Finclude%2Fitem_snippet-0-b-ttl said:
[I agree the real question is whether the Australian taxpayer should continue to subsidize vehicle manufacturing at the levels the manufacturers demand.]
Hockey decided the answer was no, fair enough. But he should have the decency to admit it. All he has done is reinforce the opinion he is a fool.
DavidWH
[DN I didn’t say the government had no influence. I’m sure if they were prepared to throw as much taxpayers money at GMH then GMH would continue beyond 2017. I agree the real question is whether the Australian taxpayer should continue to subsidize vehicle manufacturing at the levels the manufacturers demand.]
Yes.
[How many jobs will go after Holden stops making cars in Australia?
PUBLISHED: 2 HOURS 27 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 2 HOURS 25 MINUTES
EDMUND TADROS GRAPHIC BY LES HEWITT
As many as 65,000 workers could lose their jobs and up to $4 billion could be lost from the economy as a result of General Motors pulling the plug on Holden manufacturing in Australia, under one scenario put forward by economic modellers]
http://www.afr.com/p/national/how_many_jobs_will_australia_after_mzo7oq8r5A411VZmX49dNO
@Psephos/2151
Actually, they did screw up defense, by allowing Abbott getting military involved in boat crises.
Every country that has a car manufacturing industry provides a subsidy to the industry
Aust was around US$18, Germany is around US$90, and the USA is around $70. Per capita figures
davidwh@2147
You are correct, this is a decisions the taxpayer needs to make. I think most would approve off some form of subsidy to maintain the manufacturing base. What next?
150 million a year for GM to keep 50,000 people employed versus 700 million a year to pay 50,000 people the dole
davidwh
the real question is whether the Australian taxpayer should continue to subsidize vehicle manufacturing at the levels the manufacturers demand.
What about the cost of an increase of 100,000 unemployed at $20,000 per year? That’s $2 billion per year. A lot more than $150 million per year!
Will this spell the end of the Holden/Ford battle at Bathurst?
Psephos, maybe they could grow some Australian submarines in Adelaide to offset the loss of Holden?
Evening all. Sad news about Holden but also inevitable. It is almost a relief that the truth is finally out. Perhaps now we will see a decent policy response other than denial.
Politically I think Labor, especially Weatherall, has handled this well. They have talked utter nonsense, but have sounded concerned, and the timing means that the Liberals can be blamed for failing to stop the closure.
I said here years ago that the industry was on a course to destruction. They were locked into producing a narrow range of models, vulnerable to oil price rises, at price/quality levels that could not survive unless the Aussie dollar stayed very low.
ThIs will not hurt the Australian economy as badly as alleged. But it will hurt Adelaide a lot, especially the northern suburbs, in the short turn. There may be no way to create the same number of jobs in manufacturing. Solutions needed will include retraining, counselling, better access to jobs in the rest of the city, more work in other fields including defence, which will at least create indirect support jobs, and creating growth in the rest of the SA economy so that people can move into other fields. Getting any of the west coast mining ventures off the ground would help.
Another good question:
[ Ronnie Smith @PRonny50 10 Dec
How is it fair that a woman on $150k gets $75k to have baby and the woman who cares for that child is denied a pittance pay rise #auspol
]
What has Australia done?
Cheers all see you later
frednk
Posted Wednesday, December 11, 2013 at 9:16 pm | Permalink
Another good question:
Ronnie Smith @PRonny50 10 Dec
How is it fair that a woman on $150k gets $75k to have baby and the woman who cares for that child is denied a pittance pay rise #auspol
What has Australia done?
==================================================
Elected an idiot Government that has little care for low income workers or the care, welfare and education of children except wealthy parents who can afford to pay top dollar
Davidwh
As you have wryly noted, there is not much the Abbott government is not getting the blame for – whether logical or stupid, justified or not.
But, you have been round this blog long enough to remember that PMJG was blamed for everything wrong in Australia while she was in office.
Meaningless blame of her and her government was just as inane then as some of the stuff being thrown at Abbott but that did not stop the Opposition and their spear carriers from having a high old time of it them.
Anyone for $100 roasts? And, has anyone found the remnants of Whyalla yet?
What goes around comes around and yes, Abbott is now in government and must wear it all.
DIO
127 matches
p.s if wrong it proves i hate maths, if right i still hate maths 😉
And blow me down my avatar has changed from meaningless green to meaningless blue.
This has only happened since Abbott has been in office.
All his fault. We will all, surely, be ruined!
[What about the cost of an increase of 100,000 unemployed at $20,000 per year? That’s $2 billion per year. A lot more than $150 million per year!]
That assumes that the entire supply chain and indirect employment will stay unemployed, which I highly doubt. It also ignores that the hundreds of millions per annum saved could also be used to create other jobs, possibly more.
mikehilliard
What would the impact of 80% tarrifs and subsides have on the cost of that 1964 car?
[I always wonder about the psychological health of rightists. Why do they ALWAYS hate/reject/lampoon any organisation that tries to help poorer/powerless people and always defend/support nasty corporate/security/war-loving organisations.]
What I pretended Amnesty said… is what they should be saying if they are to be taken seriously.
FACT: These people have it better than the people living on the other side of the wire fence. Free Housing… Free Food… Free Electricity(hard to get any electricity actually in PNG). They even have internet, telephones and televisions.
FACT: These people are living in better conditions then those in their departure countries. Can’t remember too many Afghans living PNG or Nauru Camp style conditions… a rock hut with a dusty floor and if you are lucky a feed a week seems more the norm. But alas… Amnesty don’t compare to those conditions, they compare it to someone living in Sydney or Melbourne.
FACT: Real Refugee Camps are hellholes, compared to them Nauru and PNG must seem like a paradise to a real legit refugee from a U.N camp.
Amnesty of course has a right to point out that conditions aren’t perfect but the fact they completely deny the reality of said points above, it makes them look like complete… out of touch.. kooks who will whinge even if they were housed at the Ritz.
Christopher Pyne’s antics benefit Labor.
Long may the Abbott government fail to understand this.
There’s far worse to come yet.
Wait for the dismantling of medicare and privatising hospitals, then freezing pensioner payments. To be followed by “no increase in GST” but it will be placed on everything – no more exemptions. Given the importance of food and rent in the budget of the average Joe – a huge impost. A mere pittance for the rich of course.
Sean
Ford made a commercial decision to leave Australia.
Holden had approached the Australian and state governments with a proposal to build two models until 2022 under a co-investment arrangement.
The government chose not to follow though which left Holden with having to protect share holder value therefore it chose to close production.
For someone that claims to have run a business you seem to haev forgotten that a business needs capital.
If a business cannot justify an investment to itself, shareholders and financiers then it wont proceed.
Socrates
Posted Wednesday, December 11, 2013 at 9:14 pm | Permalink
..
Getting any of the west coast mining ventures off the ground would help.
]
What was the total diesel subsidy offered to BHP to get Olympic dam project off the ground?
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4219382.html
@Sean/2172
Because they need to be able to back to normal lives, before transitioning into a country (like ours for example).
Listening to the Liberal/Abbott apologists over the car industry decision.
If this had happened under Labor PMJG would have been demonized, hung/drawn and quartered.
What a bunch a sycophant hypocrites they are…
[Amnesty of course has a right to point out that conditions aren’t perfect but the fact they completely deny the reality of said points above, it makes them look like complete… out of touch.. kooks who will whinge even if they were housed at the Ritz.]
Weapons-grade analysis.
[FACT: These people have it better than the people living on the other side of the wire fence. Free Housing… Free Food… Free Electricity.]
Pity about the free movement, free association, free speech and all those other free things that Real Liberals are supposed to think important.
[FACT: Real Refugee Camps are hellholes]
Geez, one might almost think that Real Refugees might want to avoid them.
And Greg Hunt continues to be a weasel…
I bid you all a weapons-grade Goodnight.
What message will it give to voters when Tony drives to Yarralumla in his BMW?
SOCRATES – YOu may not have noticed, but the mining construction phase in this country is coming to an end. There will soon be tens of thousands of mining construction workers looking for jobs (oh, and a lot of Holden workers as well).
One thing is certain that the subsidies keeping afloat an established industry will be pin money compared with having to retrain all those workers or establish new industries from nothing.
This is a disastrous decision
I find it interesting that the Minister tried on 730 to blame worker productivity, maybe if he had been serious he could have looked at investing in new business models to improve productivity, maybe the government could have looked at R&D funding as a means to develop new manufacturing process but that would have required a policy
2182
Holden didn’t want to quote on the cars, does that tell you anything?
[Aust was around US$18, Germany is around US$90, and the USA is around $70. Per capita figures]
Choose the right comparison base and you can justify any rubbish. Express the subsidy per car produced and it will look the other way around. Germany produces 2.7 million cars per year, the USA 2.2 million, Australia 80,000. We are a minnow. Porsche makes more cars per year than we do (140,000). Our productivity per worker is much too low. Mercedes are turning out executive sedans for a similar price per unit as we take to make Commodores. Unless we can convince the average buyer a Commodore is worth the same as a Merc that situation cannot last.
See: http://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/
@MB/2184
Yup, like Waterfront debate, it was about Worker Productivity.
After every town has a new hospital, new airport and a few new roads, what next?
No NBN, no industry moving us to a renewable economy, what is supposed to come next?
Evening all.
Had drinks after work with federal public servants visiting from Perth and Canberra. Bottom line consensus from inside the bunker is this is the most chaotically handled machinery of government changes they’ve seen. The wholesale changes being made to several departments are being poorly articulated to those areas affected, causing confusion in key service delivery arms, and confusion for staff.
Those earmarked to lose their jobs have been pushed into a ‘holding pen’ for the foreseeable future, with no decisions about when they’ll be let go.
Remember the pre-election promises on Medicare Locals? They are going. They are being turned into service delivery agencies, stripped of the vital coordination role which made them valuable to local communities. This is another broken pre-election promise.
In short, how depressment from my friends.
Frednk
I did not support the mining fuel rebate either, and have said so here. It has not made uneconomic mines stay open, and cost a lot of tax revenue.
Kevin17
It was not my decisions that closed Holden. The subsidies have not solved the underlying weakness. I agree we face a problem, and yes mining is slowing down. More engineers have lost their jobs in the past year than total employment in the Elizabeth plant. Maybe now Labor will notice. Time for the reforms studiously avoided since Howard.
[What message will it give to voters when Tony drives to Yarralumla in his BMW?]
Yep, a very bad look.
[Holden didn’t want to quote on the cars, does that tell you anything?]
Holden are still involved in the making of the cars, partnering with two of the other companies.
RU@2182
That is the point.
This government came into office pretending it had the economic answers – there was rapturous joy in the West paper just days after the election all pumped up with NAB showing confidence up “due to the election of the Abbott government” – no ifs and no buts.
Then we had the boast of “Australia is now open for business” tagged with “2 million more jobs”.
And now, it is all in pieces with frantic efforts to justify what has happened as something part of a wider plan and somehow “good” for the economy. A kind of ‘cleansing’ as it were.
In actual fact the new government is in chaos and the wheels are wobbly if not off yet.
Lucky for them they do have enough seats to squander as they will need to get their act together just to survive.
As somebody said, with Abbott it will end in tears.
Zoidy
Holden by virtue of wanting to build two new models over five years they were not overly concerned about productivity.
Manufacturing is a cost intenstive industry with many overheads and while labour cost is one part of the picture there are other issues.
The government have as part of any investment have assisted in improving these issues.
I repeat what i have said many times before, this government seems to have no business experience and no workforce management experience.
2190
They wouldn’t be the reforms that shall not be named?
On Cars btw, Top Gear Jeromy Clarkson on cars and old days:
http://topgear-magazine.com/post/69597674928/jeremy-clarkson
[GERARD Henderson will join The Australian as a weekly columnist from next week.
“It’s nice to be back; it’s only been a quarter of a century,” said Henderson, who wrote for The Australian from 1987-89. “And it’s great to be back with Phillip Adams.”
The executive director of the forum, The Sydney Institute, will continue his 23-year run filing weekly columns.]
Just what the Australian needs: another ageing white male apologist for the Liberal party!
2191
Holden did not quote on the govt tender for these cars. You might wonder why?
Most properly they were not willing to met the tender guidelines.
Socrates 2186
Today, Mike Devereux said workers only account for 16% of Holden’s car production costs. How does that figure compare with Germany and the US? What is productivity really dependent on?
[Holden didn’t want to quote on the cars, does that tell you anything?]
In fact they did. Twice with two different partners. The Govt rejected the quotes as is their right, to say a Holden Caprice was not tendered is an outright lie.