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| Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Calwell covers suburbs around Melbourne Airport in the city’s north-west, including Keilor, Sydenham and Taylors Lakes to the west, Tullamarine to the south, and from Broadmeadows north along Sydney Road to the southern part of Craigieburn. The seat was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 but at that time the electorate was oriented further to the west, with only the Keilor and Sydenham area west of the Maribyrnong River carrying over to the electorate in its current form. The redistribution which took effect at the 1990 election shifted it eastwards to include Broadmeadows, which it has retained ever since. Substantial changes at the 2004 redistribution saw the electorate lose the areas west of the river to the new seat of Gorton while gaining Sunbury and Craigieburn to the north from abolished Burke, but these were reversed at the 2013 election, when Sunbury and most of Craigieburn were transferred to McEwen and Keilor and Sydenham were returned from Gorton.
Calwell has been won by Labor at each election since its creation by margins ranging from 7.1% in 1990 to 19.7% in 2010, which were respectively the worst and best elections for Labor in Victoria during the period in question. The seat’s inaugural member was Andrew Theophanous, who had been member for Burke from 1980. Theophanous quit the ALP in April 2000 after claiming factional leaders had reneged on a deal in which he was to be succeeded by his brother Theo, who served in the Victorian state upper house from 1988 to 2010 and as a minister from 2002 to 2008. Andrew Theophanous was facing criminal charges at the time of his departure from the party for receiving bribes and sexual favours from Chinese nationals seeking immigration assistance, for which he would eventually be sentenced to four years’ imprisonment, which was halved after one of the major charges was quashed on appeal.
Labor’s new candidate at the 2001 election was Maria Vamvakinou, who shared Theophanous’s Greek heritage and background in the Socialist Left faction, having spent the eight years before her entry to parliament as an electorate officer to factional powerbroker Senator Kim Carr. Vamvakinou went entirely untroubled by Theophanous’s forlorn bid to retain his seat as an independent, which scored him 9.6% of the vote. Vamvakinou had her 17.7% margin at the 2001 election pared back 1.6% by redistribution and 6.9% by a swing to the Liberals at the 2004 election, before enjoying a thumping 11.1% swing in 2007 and a further 0.4% swing in 2010. The redistribution before the September election increased her margin another 0.4%, but she went on to suffer a 6.2% swing that was slightly above the statewide 5.1%, reducing her margin to its present 13.9%. Vamvakinou has remained on the back bench throughout her time in parliament.
Bemused
The absence of nastiness in Truss vis a vis Abbott as you point out, is an excellent point.
I get the impression that Truss is a decent man despite his politics, unlike many other members of the government too numerous to mention.
People ranting about the dollars from Govt to subsidise the car industry and keep around 30,000 people employed.
Between $2-4 billion is provided to the mining industry in subsidies and there is silence…
Good point AA.
Socrates@1249
We used to have laws about ‘living off immoral earnings’. Dust those laws off and throw the book at the lot of them. 😛
mikeh:
“Jobs of those who make a living from pokies”?
That’s completely irrelevant IMO.
Socrates
Maybe, but a lot of hotels that would have died have been able to revitalise themselves from the revenue they collect from the machines. I don’t support gambling in any sense (I think the Melb cup stinks). In many respects I think the big clubs are the worst offenders. The local pub with a few machines (max 30) wouldn’t most likely be there without them, that’s what I mean.
psyclaw@1251
There are a few other govt members who are the same. Sadly, too few.
It’s also worth remembering that the pokie phenomenon has only been with us for a few decades.
It’s not like it’s a “traditional way of life” or anything.
And before there were mega clubs with mega rows of pokies there were other forms of entertainment and community engagement that have been forced out by the pokies.
And it appears people have forgotten that the mining industry was one of the first to start sacking people during the GFC.
BHP totally destroyed a town in WA but was still getting the subsidies from taxpayers
mikehilliard@1256
Bullshit!
They have killed a lot of great live band venues and replaced a happy environment with one of misery.
[Between $2-4 billion is provided to the mining industry in subsidies and there is silence…]
Yep, but tax them more and it’s class warfare or something.
Do we have confirmation of a Newspoll tonight/tomorrow (aside from the lack of reason not to be one)? Usual spoiler-hinters are quiet today.
[BHP totally destroyed a town in WA but was still getting the subsidies from taxpayers]
Plus Grange Resources and its now-withdrawn Southdown magnetite project.
benused
Bull yourself, the local residence killed of the live bands & the building code regs that made compliance for older buildings hugely expensive.
Local pubs reliant on them? There are big clubs where the only profit making division is gambling.
Bemused
[Fine, demand they produce the type of cars that sell and that they increase the local content over time.]
I agree, that is what really should happen. The problem is, they (GM) do not want to do it. GM and the world auto industry has too much capacity and they do not want to invest in high cost centres like Austalia when they can expand in Thailand for half the cost.
The fact is, GM are only going to produce cars here for as long as we give them so much money it covers literally the entire wage bill of the assembly line. If we stop they go. They will not invest in the kind of car manufacturing that makes sense, because they have that capacity elsewhere. I understand people do not like my opinion. Fine. You do not have to convince me. Convince Detroit. Good luck. We cannot make them invest their money.
Toyota are a better prospect, because they have invested in the hybrid technology and have a more viable model lineup. But IMO Holden are only a matter of time.
confessions
Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 9:38 pm | Permalink
Between $2-4 billion is provided to the mining industry in subsidies and there is silence…
Yep, but tax them more and it’s class warfare or something.
========================================
Impose a tax that according to Eleventy and cohorts was a massive impost of the miners. Yet while condemning the MRRT as an impost Eleventy and other twits were ranting about how the tax raised so little.
Is it just me? That sees a contradiction
Socrates
Posted Monday, December 9, 2013 at 9:42 pm | Permalink
Bemused
Fine, demand they produce the type of cars that sell and that they increase the local content over time.
===================================================
Some sort of control of CEO/Boardrooms giving themselves pay rises and bonuses when the company is loosing money.
Holden executives got a 33% increase when the company lost $150 million
Bemused
[Bullshit!
They have killed a lot of great live band venues and replaced a happy environment with one of misery.]
Sadly true. Hardly any of the places I saw live bands in my student days are still open. Mega clubs with pokies have killed them all.
Those are the guys who kicked up a stink and who Labor have caved to. Not local pubs.
Psephos:
Greens 1 then exhaust, as usual.
Socrates
Oh FFS what do you know about studies showing that pokies do NOT create jobs.
You’re in a seriously big hole as it is on car manufacturing jobs as it is 😆
mikeh:
Woolworths are reportedly among the largest owners of pokies machines in Australia.
[Greens 1 then exhaust, as usual.]
That wasn’t my question, as you well know. Besides which, that’s informal and therefore not a vote at all.
Tom
Yes, I’m happy to be in disagreement.
Provided the right infrastructure is in place, releasing more land for residential development will ease demand for property across the board.
Oh, and infrastructure includes the building of motorways much to the dismay of the Greens.
Fess. Because they bought all the bottleshops they could. WA still has pokies only at the casino. Not in pubs or clubs. Still losing music venues.
Poker machines are a voluntary tax on the greedy and the stupid, which means the rest of us have to pay less tax.
Centre
There are plenty of dodgy studies (usually sponsored by the gambling industry) that claim gambling creates jobs. But they ignore the jobs that are lost. Gambling does not create wealth. It is a zero sum game. Most independent studies have found that gambling sites tend to destroy jobs in other nearby entertainment venues like restaurants, smaller clubs and pubs. I have posted links here to examples before, but I will not bother again, since I doubt you will read something that proves you wrong. However, if you are serious, ignore me and read Tim Costello’s book on the gambling industry. It lays out the problems so clearly even a political staffer or union official could understand them.
I am not in a hole on car manufacturing. I am not the one making impossible promises. Weatherall is handling the politics cleverly, looking concerned. But he has nothing to lose asking. This is all just posturing. He can’t afford to tell the truth before the election. He will act sad after it closes.
If they really cared about people, not votes, they would start planning now what to do in Elizabeth after the closure. But the SA State still talks about increasing manufacturing jobs in the north. ROTFL! Now that is a hole!
Not enough of the pokie “tax” goes to tax. Too much goes to pokie owners. Taxpayers pick up the loss to society. Privatise the profits. Nationalise the costs.
I have heard Woolworths own quite a few pubs.
I don’t want to make an argument out of this, I just know a number of publicans who have told me they couldn’t stay open without the pokey revenue, perhaps there just shit pubs but not always. I feel sorry for all those who are addicted as I do for all bad addictions, life seems to offer up a few.
BTW I’ve never played one to be honest.
This is Costello’s book. It is a very good read.
http://books.google.com.au/books/about/Wanna_Bet.html?id=pZ9IKQx7JgsC&redir_esc=y
Yes
Absolute fact. People who do not play the pokies pay less tax. If there were no pokies you would definitely need to pay more tax.
It’s a popular form of entertainment on which people choose to spend their money.
As I’ve said, problem gambling is an issue that should be addressed and minimised.
mikehilliard@1264
Residents, not their residence, also squeal down here in Melbourne but plenty of live music pubs continue to operate and residents who have moved in, knowing there was a music venue next to them don’t seem to get a lot of sympathy.
It’s not that Conservatives or Liberals / Nationals are nasty. Many are quite decent, including the current acting PM. While I didn’t vote for them, I have no problem with NSW Premier O’Farrell or before him Fahey or Griener. I respect John Howard even though I don’t particularly like him. I even voted for him in 1996, although I soon repented of it. And while objecting to how he first came to power, I accepted Malcolm Fraser. But Abbott and the current Federal Government are something else. Nasty, thuggish, lying and contemptuous of anyone who doesn’t share their world view. They give every impression of following a hidden agenda to favour certain interests, so privatise health and education and reduce taxes for the big end of town. Not only that, but they are an international embarrassment to Australia and as their first three months in office have demonstrated, thoroughly incompetent. What a bunch of clowns., thugs and main chancres.
East Timor’s government believes it has identified the members of a team of four Australian spies who allegedly bugged its government offices, describing it as “very disturbing” that they apparently used the cover of an aid program.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/east-timor-claims-it-knows-which-australian-spies-bugged-its-offices-20131209-2z1tk.html#ixzz2myWcPd2U
[As I’ve said, problem gambling is an issue that should be addressed and minimised.]
For a start, it should be illegal for anyone on any kind of state benefit to use that money for any form of gambling. That would kill a large section of the industry.
[main chancres.]
Isn’t that a venereal disease?
Socrates@1266
Wages are a relatively small part of the cost of producing cars and probably declining and factory floor employment will decline no matter what.
I suggest a lot of the ‘cheapness’ of other countries is more to do with lax pollution laws and OH&S.
But while ever the decision of whether or not an Australian plant can export is made overseas we are in jeopardy.
Germany has at least 4 domestic car producers plus Ford and GM. Population 80M.
We should be able to sustain one and compete as the Germans do, on quality and brand.
People who don’t smoke pay less tax than smokers, but I still think we should do all we can to prevent people from becoming smokers.
I believe it should be illegal to steal from your employer or to defraud vulnerable people to gamble too … oh wait … it is illegal to do that already …
On the voting question Psephos, I’m unclear what your question was if my answer was in your view, a response to some other question.
Centre@1282
If it is just entertainment (or ‘gaming’), fine, just charge by the hour for the hire of the machine.
Achmed, I would suggest they not piss off Germany. Frau Doktor Merkel is not in a good humour at present.
Socrates
1. You cannot be serious by claiming gambling does not create jobs. It’s too silly to respond to.
2. Competition among entertainment industries does not cost the economy jobs. It’s too silly to respond to.
3. To claim gambling does not create wealth exposes your limited knowledge on gambling.
4. If gambling was a zero sum game, there’d be no gambling.
5. Destroy jobs? (refer to point 2).
6. Prove me wrong on gambling? *chuckle
7. Read Tim Costello? *another chuckle
8. Go back and read my posts on the economic benefits of providing car manufacturing with funding – there are many.
9. No, Weatherall, McFarlane and Kim Carr are on the money. That’s who you should be listening to, not Peter Costello believe me!
[On the voting question Psephos, I’m unclear what your question was if my answer was in your view, a response to some other question.]
I’ve forgotten what it was now, but I’m sure it was very pertinent.
Abbott has a new standard to achieve
“6 million people in UK that are working are below the poverty line”
bemused
[If it is just entertainment (or ‘gaming’), fine, just charge by the hour for the hire of the machine.]
Indeed … you could even throw in the possibility of winning modest xash prizes. Perhaps the machines would also have “skill” phases and bonus rounds where you would have reaction time challenges with rewards in extra time.
If people spent $25-$50 per hour once per week on a machine like that instead of drinking there’d be no huge problem.
Holden is a tough decision … reminds me of the painful debates in the UK in the 80s over Thatcher’s Gov closing down unprofitable coal mines. In hindsight it was the correct decision but badly executed. Whole communities suffered terribly and needlessly.
If Holden is to close in Oz the lesson is that a generous transition package is required to retrain the workers and incentivise new industries to move in. From memory when the Newcastle steel mills closed down a proactive Gov response significantly lessened the pain of industrial transition.
oops cash prizes …
main chancres.
Isn’t that a venereal disease?
Apologies – main chancers. Predictive text and inattention strikes again.