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| Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Calwell covers suburbs around Melbourne Airport in the city’s north-west, including Keilor, Sydenham and Taylors Lakes to the west, Tullamarine to the south, and from Broadmeadows north along Sydney Road to the southern part of Craigieburn. The seat was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 but at that time the electorate was oriented further to the west, with only the Keilor and Sydenham area west of the Maribyrnong River carrying over to the electorate in its current form. The redistribution which took effect at the 1990 election shifted it eastwards to include Broadmeadows, which it has retained ever since. Substantial changes at the 2004 redistribution saw the electorate lose the areas west of the river to the new seat of Gorton while gaining Sunbury and Craigieburn to the north from abolished Burke, but these were reversed at the 2013 election, when Sunbury and most of Craigieburn were transferred to McEwen and Keilor and Sydenham were returned from Gorton.
Calwell has been won by Labor at each election since its creation by margins ranging from 7.1% in 1990 to 19.7% in 2010, which were respectively the worst and best elections for Labor in Victoria during the period in question. The seat’s inaugural member was Andrew Theophanous, who had been member for Burke from 1980. Theophanous quit the ALP in April 2000 after claiming factional leaders had reneged on a deal in which he was to be succeeded by his brother Theo, who served in the Victorian state upper house from 1988 to 2010 and as a minister from 2002 to 2008. Andrew Theophanous was facing criminal charges at the time of his departure from the party for receiving bribes and sexual favours from Chinese nationals seeking immigration assistance, for which he would eventually be sentenced to four years’ imprisonment, which was halved after one of the major charges was quashed on appeal.
Labor’s new candidate at the 2001 election was Maria Vamvakinou, who shared Theophanous’s Greek heritage and background in the Socialist Left faction, having spent the eight years before her entry to parliament as an electorate officer to factional powerbroker Senator Kim Carr. Vamvakinou went entirely untroubled by Theophanous’s forlorn bid to retain his seat as an independent, which scored him 9.6% of the vote. Vamvakinou had her 17.7% margin at the 2001 election pared back 1.6% by redistribution and 6.9% by a swing to the Liberals at the 2004 election, before enjoying a thumping 11.1% swing in 2007 and a further 0.4% swing in 2010. The redistribution before the September election increased her margin another 0.4%, but she went on to suffer a 6.2% swing that was slightly above the statewide 5.1%, reducing her margin to its present 13.9%. Vamvakinou has remained on the back bench throughout her time in parliament.
Rex Douglas@1183
I’m with you on that Rex and I don’t mind if anyone calls me a wowser, I would wear that title with pride.
Problem gambling is a cancer and the whole gambling juggernaut needs to be brought back under control.
FRe Cost of saving Holdren\__________
______
If Sen Carr is right and $150 million is all that’s required to save GMH in Aust. then why not
We spent many billions on a quite useless war in Afghanistan which few Australian supported or wanted,and the war produced only injury and deaths…so the amount required to save the Holden project is a small amount measured against the Afghan War…and we were only involved on the orders of the US
deblonay@1202
have a look at the following posted earlier today –
dave@780
This should rightly cause some grief for CanJoh.
[Firefighter pay rise may become pay cut
Queensland firefighters have been granted a pay rise before Christmas – but their union says it’s fighting to ensure the deal doesn’t have a sting in its tail.
The United Firefighters Union says while firies have received a 2.2 per cent pay increase, it may become a pay cut once their wage battle with the government is over.
Union secretary John Oliver says the Queensland government is trying to offset the wage boost by making firefighters work an extra five days a year at reduced overtime rates.
If this transpires, the average firie would be out of pocket $1500 a year, Mr Oliver said]
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/firefighter-pay-rise-may-become-pay-cut-20131209-2z1qp.html#ixzz2my0l45pn
@poroti/1204
Work till Death.
Well at least the money chaps in The City who helped “blow up the world” are back to record bonuses. Austerity Tory style
[The poorest pay the price for austerity: Workers face biggest fall in living standards since Victorian era
The biggest drop in living standards since the Victorian age is seeing low and middle earners suffering an unprecedented squeeze on their incomes as austerity measures continue to bite, with women and part-time workers disproportionately affected, research reveals today ]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-poorest-pay-the-price-for-austerity-workers-face-biggest-fall-in-living-standards-since-victorian-era-8991842.html
Newspoll tonight or finished for year? Or too bad for the government?
Tone is the Two Million Jobs man. Yes, we can rebuild him!
[The ALP’s weakness on problem gambling is absolutely shameful. ]
Yet again Labor has managed to wimp out on a topic that the public are soundly behind and there is good evidence for.
TLBD
[Tone is the Two Million Jobs man.]
I saw a FactCheck on that stat. Evidently two million jobs created in ten years is pretty much par for the course. That’s the rate the economy normally creates new jobs.
1181
My point is that outer suburban land release does not solve the supply issue causing high house prices because it is not where the strongest demand is. In parts of outer Melbourne, new release land prices are stagnant or even slightly falling while inner-city land prices are rising.
Urban motorways are inefficient, polluting, traffic inducing, land and money hungry wastes and so naturally Greens oppose them.
Dave re Gotliebsen statement
____________
Thanks for that .. a most scary scenario however and one which will cause immense pain here amongst people who have …after 20 odd years of growth.. forgotten what a recession is all about
They may be about to learn
it will light a great fire under the Abbott Govt and if this scenario is lived out ,then he cannot survive the next election….though what Shorten would do in office then is anybody’s guess…social democratic parties usually have a poor record when faced with the great crises of capitalism
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25295561
New payment system for Pensioners in UK is now ‘failure’.
Joe’s nightmare bought to you by Peter Costello.
http://www.treasury.gov.au/~/media/Treasury/Publications%20and%20Media/Publications/2013/Economic%20Roundup%20Issue%202/Downloads/PDF/2-Tax-to-GDP-ratio.ashx
Howards political backflip on petrol excise in 2001 is costing more than $6-8 billion a year, who says the NBN is expensive.
[It is good to see Bill Shorten will mix with world leaders at the Nelson Mandela memorial service.]
It is good to see Bill Shorten will mix with other world leaders at the Nelson Mandela memorial service.
That suggests that Bill Shorten is a world leader or that he is already mixing with one; ie., Tony Abbott.
Lizzie 1176
Thanks for the link, very depressing. Labor is not worse than the Coalition, but so often they are no better, which reflects very poorly on the personal integrity of the self-styled “professionals” that run it. Hard to think of an industry that harms working class people more than gambling.
Diogenes
It is indeed . It was a joke of a promise as business as usual would see that number of jobs created through population growth. Crikey even with the GFC Labor would be odds on to have done it.
From ABS Sept 2007 10,520,000 . Sept 2013 11,640,800
Re Psephos @1160 – Keelty makes the point that the late change of the election date, and the late decision on whether to have a referendum or not, wrought havoc with the AEC’s planning
I’d forgotten about the referendum. Tony Abbott supported it and then for reasons that he never made clear started talking it down, banging on about how the two or three in the House of Reps who opposed the referendum deserved equal funding. An early sign of what an Abbott Government might be like. It looks like he folded to vested interests who didn’t want the referendum to pass.
(The reason for his opposition was never stated. I remember hearing some IPA functionary being interviewed about it. He seemed very concerned about Federal Government involvement in garbage collection).
Who can trust this dickhead we have for PM, who can trust his word? I’m not an Abbott hater, I am an Abbott detractor. But that’s only because he is very deserving of detraction.
When is he going to refund the money’s put in by local governments to support the yes case? Someone should ask.
Joe’s nightmare part 2
http://www.actu.org.au/Images/Dynamic/attachments/8092/ACTU%20Economic%20Bulletin%20-%20December%202013.pdf
The data is all there, its not spending its revenue. Index fuel so it keeps up with growth, cut tax deductions for high earners super, remove CGT discount, increase the top income tax rates. Not rocket science.
Dio, poroti,
You are correct, the economy creates many new jobs as the population grows, simply through providing essential services to the people. Even in South Australia jobs have grown on average about 1.4% per annum over the past 30 years, even counting the early 90s recession. Apply that over ten years, and you can create 100,000 new jobs just in South Australia. Nation wide, two million jobs over ten years is nothing more than trend growth.
[Keelty makes the point that the late change of the election date, and the late decision on whether to have a referendum or not, wrought havoc with the AEC’s planning]
How many other Rudd time bombs are there out there, just waiting to come back to bite either the ALP or the country?
Amazingly poor leadership.
Some of you guys are fair dinkum delusional.
Labor did more than any other government before it in its attempts to curb problem gambling.
Hello, the Liberals are now in government. Show a bit of ticker yourselves and direct your anger where it should be directed – towards the Coalition…wimps! 😛
Agree with most above labor did the wrong thing on pokies – wrong morally – wrong politically
[If Sen Carr is right and $150 million is all that’s required to save GMH in Aust. then why not]
Strictly speaking he said that an EXTRA $150 million PER YEAR is needed to save Holden, on top of current assistance.
Why not? For starters, Holden’s Elizabeth wage bill is less than that! It would be cheaper just to send all the workers a cheque. But that would mean admitting current policy is a waste of time, so neither side of politics wants to do that.
Other reasons? How about the fact that you could create more jobs with the same money doing other things? Anyway, facts are useless when proving to people their cherished beliefs are wrong. That is as true of Labor and manufacturing as it is of Liberals and climate change.
Tom @ 1211
[Greens oppose them.]
Good, glad to hear it. Now we’re both happy!
If you want morality join the Greens or forget about politics.
Of course, to add a bit of balance to the debate:
Gambling does provide an extremely popular form of entertainment and does contribute substantial amounts to government coffers.
Sure problem gambling is a problem and measures should be taken to minimise it 😎
Xenephon and Wilkie sure supported the PM who acted more on the issue than anyone else before her didn’t they?
Now you can go and take it to mummy 😛
@Socrates/1225
Depends WHERE and how the jobs will be created.
This is the problem with political parties, especially Coalition Party.
There is no detailed Analysis of where the jobs are needed.
Socrates
Your #686 this morning sharing the putative $150 mill amongst the Holden workers was misleading. It is manifest that many more workers not employed directly by Holden depend on Holden’s survival.
It was flat earth arithmetic, otherwise known as “doing Green sums”.
psyclaw@1230
It also entirely overlooks the value of what those workers produce.
1226
You still have failed to either admit that I am correct about housing supply or provide any evidence that I am not.
The coalition are unwinding the stuff Labor did do in govt to address pokies addiction, but it’s Labor’s fault for not going far enough with pokies reform?
Right.
Just for Sean
Jakarta Post Breaking news
[Agriculture Minister Suswono has said the government may reviewi its policy on importing beef from Australia following the recent diplomatic tensions between the two countries.
“Basically, we want this issue [beef importation] to be resolved in a business-to-business manner. However, if the President [Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono] is not satisfied with Australia’s response over the recent diplomatic tension, then we will review the policy,” Suswono said as quoted by Kontan.co.id on Monday.
Should the review take place, Suswono said that business players would need to make necessary adjustments.
Previously, Coordinating Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa said the government had begun looking for other sources of beef imports after the eruption of diplomatic tension with Australia.]
1233
The Coalition are trying to pass legislation to unwind the ALP`s pokies changes and the Coalition need the ALP`s vote for it to pass the Senate. The ALP is currently being criticised for not voting against the bill in the HoR. The ALP is yet to announce its Senate vote on the bill. It is thus the time to pile on the pressure on the ALP to do the correct thing and block pokies law repeal.
Ruawake
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/12/09/beef-imports-australia-be-reviewed.html
Most worrying I would think for the cattle producers, and the National Party
Poker machines should never have been legalised.
[The ALP is currently being criticised for not voting against the bill in the HoR. The ALP is yet to announce its Senate vote on the bill.]
So the ALP is being criticised for something it hasn’t yet announced, much less done?
Okaaaay.
We have seen Abbott present several “ceremonial” speeches over the past few years, invariably pathetic and always crassly and inappropriately introducing partisan domestic politics into the occasion.
His speech to the joint houses when Obama visited, when he included carbon pricing, is an example.
For all his faults I thought Truss’s speech on indulgence about NMandela prior to QT today was most appropriate and to my mind was up to par for the occasion.
He made Abbott’s speechmaking look rank amateurish.
Interestingly, in reference to the reasons for Mandela’s gaoling in 1962 which have been referred to in some places as terrorism, Truss said Mandela was incarcerated for ” actions against injustice”.
Although he is a B-grader and sleep inducing, I think he would be a far better PM than the current excuse for a PM.
Blasphemy? It has crossed my mind, but I think not.
S777:
What we’re seeing over east with pokies addiction and the harm they distribute is why I hope they stay out of WA permanently.
Happily if this report is true the $150 million will not happen and Holden will close anyway.
[A report in The Wall Street Journal has added to speculation that General Motors has already decided to end production of Holden cars in Australia.
Citing sources “familiar with the auto maker’s plans”, the newspaper reported on Monday that General Motors intended to “close its two Australian plants and separately slash production in South Korea by as much as 20 per cent by 2016”.]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gm-to-close-holden-plants-says-us-report-20131209-2z0wy.html#ixzz2myFgTRK5
There are plenty of other places jobs can be created that more than pay for themselves. Look at the new SAMRI research centre in Adelaide ($250 million one off) or the UQ/RBH facility created for less than that from a private donor. Or what about the NBN? Over ten years Holden will cost enough to finish the NBN for the whole of South Australia, surely creating far more jobs.
Will those employ Holden workers? No. There is no solution to that other than retraining, but Holden workers are hardly alone in that respect.
psyclaw@1240
I agree.
It is fashionable on PB to mock and ridicule Truss, but he has far more substance than Abbott and lacks Abbott’s fundamental nastiness.
You can always rely on Bleijie for the truth http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-09/qld-bar-association-denies-helping-bleijie-with-legislation/5145256
So, for all the 1000’s of people who are allowed a living from pokies, what of them?
Bemused
[It also entirely overlooks the value of what those workers produce.]
The value is not enough to keep it going. The latest Commodore is only 50% Australian content, and they are not making or selling many of them. More than 90% of the value of the cars we buy is imported.
Abbotts Ministry
Bemused #1231
Yes, that too.
And you can’t tell me that the skill base of all the ancilliary workers is not directly relevant to emerging clean energy manufacturing industries, especially in the formative years, and needs to be maintained for that reason alone.
Mike
[So, for all the 1000′s of people who are allowed a living from pokies, what of them?]
The answer is that they can find a way to make an honest living like everyone else. That argument could be used to justify drug dealers keeping their jobs (or Murdoch journos 🙂 ).
In fact, it is worse than that for gambling. A lot of studies have shown that pokies do NOT create jobs, only redistribute them. They do not create wealth. The money that goes into pokies formerly went into other pubs, restaurants and entertainment industries. They destroy as many jobs as they create.
Socrates@1246
Fine, demand they produce the type of cars that sell and that they increase the local content over time.
A lot of the switch to sourcing of components from overseas has been due to their incompetence in managing their local supply chain and NOT the fault of local supplier.
I drive a Holden Vectra and love it. They were originally produced as an Opel and then built here. Such cars, and smaller, will sell if well built.
In the longer term, I would like to see a local car industry where decisions were made in Australia. It would be good to see a govt strategy to achieve this.