BludgerTrack: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition

After substantially narrowing last week, this week the two-party preferred poll aggregate gap all but disappears, while leaving the Coalition some breathing space on the seat projection.

It’s been a quieter week on the polling front in the wake of last week’s bonanza, with only the regular weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan added to the mix. The new additions do nothing to halt the momentum to Labor which emerged in the previous result, with shifts of 1.3% shift on the primary vote and 0.5% on two-party preferred. The latter gain is blunted by the fact that the Greens are down 1.2%, having failed of late to replicate a series of stronger results in early to mid-November. The two-party preferred measure is now being calculated with newly available preference flow results from the September 7 election, replacing modelled preference projections used previously. This hasn’t made much difference to the national result, but it’s helped eliminate an anomalous gain for the Liberals on the seat calculation in South Australia. The other change on the seat projection is an extra gain for Labor in New South Wales. It should be noted that the model continues to leave the Coalition well ahead of Labor despite the position of near-parity on two-party preferred, indicating the impact of “sophomore surge” effects on the BludgerTrack model in the seats Labor most needs to win. See the sidebar for full results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,516 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition”

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  1. Re odd way in which Pierre Curie died
    _____________________________
    Another curious accidental death involving a famous peson,was the death of the great Catalan architect Gaudi who died when riding his bike in Barcelona and was hit by a tram

    In Melbourne some years ago a Labor Senator Olive Zakharov
    was killed when struck by a tram in St Kilda Road

  2. [2422
    confessions

    Christ, Tisme is flogging himself as an historian now.

    Presumably Tisme is an historian in the same way that he’s an economist, an immigration expert, a foreign affairs afficionado, statistician, skilled in matters relating to indigenous reconciliation, and polling expert.]

    Very well put, confessions. He’s obviously hack-worthy. Perhaps he’s an up and coming Brough.

  3. [Killing innocent people to make a political point makes you a terrorist.

    By this reckoning, the apartheid regime was run by terrorists.]

    The SA regime killed plenty of people, but it didn’t kill civilians at random in the way that terrorists do. Sean’s definition of terrorism (a very abused word) is a reasonable one. He just failed to show that it applied to Mandela.

  4. briefly – precisely. ST has belled the cat. And all the governments who supported the Apartheid regime were supporters of terrorism.

    To give any creedence to most people prattling on about terrorism is to turn the world on its head.

  5. Seeing as how citing Wiki is all the rage I thought I’d post this.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_First

    [In November 1978 First took up a post as director of the research training programme at the Universidade Eduardo Mondlane in Maputo, Mozambique. There she continued to work for the downfall of the apartheid regime. She was assassinated by order of Craig Williamson, a major in the South African Police, on 17 August 1982, when she opened a letter bomb that had been sent to the university.[3]]

  6. [Looking at the weather forecast for Adelaide in the next couple of days, why on Earth didn’t Michael Clarke enforce the follow on? ]

    Yes, Rule No. 1 of screwing the poms is always enforce the follow on when you have the chance.

  7. Schnappi
    [Cannot agree New Guinea ,prefer Middle East Desert Rats.

    Family did middle east 9th Division, also Milne Bay,Finchhaven , two parachuted there without training]
    And?

    Cannot agree with whom? My family, or Keating’s idea of where Australia won its nationhood?

    You know, the blokes fighting in New Guinea were fighting tooth and nail for Australia. Everyone else was fighting for the Commonwealth, i.e. Britain.

    Keating never forgave Churchill for refusing to send Aus troops back to defend Australia, even though they’d been at the forefront of victory in Africa (your desert rats).

    But, it’s a different world now. Back then it was King and Country. Not home and Australia as a separate identity.

    That’s what Keating was saying. Australia under the dominion of the UK wasn’t even trying to defend its home soil. Yet, we had troops in New Guinea who did.

    And that’s where we forged our identity. Not on the death fields of Gallipoli or Flanders.

    Whereas Aussies had had victories in Africa and the Middle East, you weren’t home here defending the home soil. You were defending the UK then.

    I don’t know about you, but I grew up on a diet of the home brigade protecting us from being overrun by the Japs. And that’s where our lads were, in New Guinea.

    Not a thing was said about protecting UK interests in the Middle East, although the Rats of Tobruk were always mentioned, and lauded.

    But don’t diminish the Australian lads who fought in NG. They earned their stripes, and then some.

  8. [Dave @2450 – yes, here’s hoping. There’d be a lot of commentators with egg on their faces if Australia win the Series. It would be great if we leave Adelaide 2-0.]

    Considering England’s record in Perth, if Australia win this match, they’ve pretty much all but won the ashes back.

  9. 2454
    Psephos

    Psephos, your definition of terrorism is well-accepted and ST’s is very loose. However, if ST is to be taken at face value (a big if), then the SA regime, which used violence for all kinds of reasons against all kinds of people, used terror as a political instrument.

  10. [2457
    deblonay

    Briefly 2448…re terrorist definition
    ___________
    to your list add the government of the USA which does the same thing]

    … or more aptly, by the Assad regime or the theocrats in Teheran…

  11. Some good comments in this tread –

    http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2013/dec/07/australia-england-ashes-mitchell-johnson

    [- They will now go to Perth, swap Root and Bell around, possibly bring in Bresnan, and think they have a better team. Meanwhile, Johnson will make hay once again

    Given the quality of players available to Australia, this is lining up to be the most humiliating Ashes defeat for many years

    – That’s the best Ashes fast bowling spell I can remember since Botham and Willis – different matches – in 81. There may have been others, but as I supported England until I moved to Oz in 2000 I can’t think of any in that time.

    – Our whole preparation smacks of arrogance. Why would you not think a Lehman team playing at home wouldn’t be this aggressive? No decent quickie, still playing players who have been out of form for a year. It’s back to the England I’ve watched for most of my life, harder to get out of the team than in it. Still, congrats to the Aussies (lockjaw through gritted teeth).

    – They’re giving Aus a two-nil head start.
    That’s confidence, not arrogance.

    – 7 December the anniversary of Pearl Harbour “a day that will live in infamy”. Johnson torpedoes us again. Long road back.

    – Ashes to ashes…….Really! ]

    But you get the drift…

  12. [to your list add the government of the USA which does the same thing]

    I just knew you’d say that. Everything always has to come back to the hating the US with you, doesn’t it. Or Israel. Or both.

  13. [There is still plenty of time to bowl the Poms out, even with a few scattered showers]

    over by tea tomorrow with Johnson getting another 7 wickets

  14. [hat’s the best Ashes fast bowling spell I can remember since Botham and Willis – different matches]

    best since garner, Ambrose, Walsh, marshall et al

  15. [There is still plenty of time to bowl the Poms out, even with a few scattered showers]

    Showers are forecast in Adelaide for the next 3 days. Hopefully not enough to disrupt play significantly.

  16. More generally, as soon as we start trying to label states as “terrorist”, we stretch the word beyond any useful meaning. Terrorism is what terrorists do. If you want to condemn what governments do, find another word.

  17. It was obvious in the last half hour of England’s innings that our bowlers were spent, so it was definitely a decision to rest them for the remainder of the day.

    I imagine Clarke will give Warner a chance to make his century and maybe get the target up to somewhere around 600 for one last psychological bruise. I definitely wouldn’t be batting after lunch though. Play it safe and allow 5 sessions to finish the job.

  18. [Showers are forecast in Adelaide for the next 3 days. Hopefully not enough to disrupt play significantly.]

    The BOM forecast is describing them as a few scattered showers. I am sure that if the forecast was for heavy rain, Clarke would’ve acted with a lot more urgency today and forced the follow-on

    *is prepared to be proven completely wrong as it buckets down for 48 hours straight*

  19. State terrorism.

    Yet more Wiki
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_terrorism

    [State terrorism refers to acts of terrorism conducted by a state against a foreign state or people or its own people]

    [There is neither an academic nor an international legal consensus regarding the proper definition of the word “terrorism”.[6][7] Many scholars believe that the actions of governments can be labeled “terrorism”; however others …..]

  20. deblonay @ 2445
    [A quite historic battle is being fought out in many US cities against the terrible treatment of workers in low-paid jobs in many big chains like Walmart]

    And so they should. I remember 4 Corners earlier this year running a story on the pitiful wages paid in America. There was one bloke with a sick wife and a teenage daughter working 12 hour shifts at Disney World who was getting paid just over half what my mother gets on the single aged pension. Even allowing for the lower cost structure, that is cruel.

  21. Kezza2 2460

    Was not diminishing anyone, however my family who did Tobruk were bought home to fight in New Guinea ,so how is that diminishing

  22. slothy@2483


    deblonay @ 2445

    A quite historic battle is being fought out in many US cities against the terrible treatment of workers in low-paid jobs in many big chains like Walmart


    And so they should. I remember 4 Corners earlier this year running a story on the pitiful wages paid in America. There was one bloke with a sick wife and a teenage daughter working 12 hour shifts at Disney World who was getting paid just over half what my mother gets on the single aged pension. Even allowing for the lower cost structure, that is cruel.

    The following was posted by Victoria early today and is very good –

    [ Jon Stewart of the daily Show. Fast food workers have striked to increase the minimum wage, Murdoch’s lackies at Fox get a pasting from Jon – ]

    http://mash.network.coull.com/activatevideo?video_provider_id=2&pid=8165&website_id=8113&width=750&height=452&embed_type=IFRAME&video_provider_url=http%3A//www.youtube.com/embed/Bci1eZFoyEg%3Fversion%3D3%26rel%3D1%26fs%3D1%26showsearch%3D0%26showinfo%3D1%26iv_load_policy%3D1%26wmode%3Dtransparent&mobile=true&referrer=http%3A%2F%2Fpbxmastragics.com%2F2013%2F12%2F06%2Fit-be-friday%2F

  23. 2475
    Psephos

    Then the issue is which acts are legitimate uses of state powers, and which are not. It’s certain to be contested ground. I think it is useful to start with acts which are at least lawful or unlawful. For example, the follies – back in the day – of the Reagan Administration in arming and helping to organise and fund Nicaraguan rebels were most likely terrorist activities. They were illegal and enabled the use of lethal violence against innocent people for political purposes.

  24. Kezza2
    As you do not know me ,well served 23 years army ,ex SAS as was called, so do not think you can accuse me of diminishing anything to do with my country ,my family

  25. [I imagine Clarke will give Warner a chance to make his century]

    Well he should, after sending them back out to bat. But the question now becomes (as I asked earlier), what is a realistic target for Aust?

    600 if they can get to that before lunch is ideal. But they don’t want to be batting beyond lunch tomorrow given the weather, and the time needed to prevent England playing for a draw.

  26. Feasibly they could declare now and the target would be unreachable. I say 600 because not only does it undo the progress made by England in their first innings but puts them in a worse position. However, time is the primary concern and I agree with you (as I already said) the Australian second innings needs to be over by lunch.

  27. 2490

    Yes, briefly, I agree there are difficult issues of terminology in cases like that. My hostility to the term “state terrorism” is based on the fact that every time some gang of bearded fanatics blows up a shopping mall or an airliner, idiots like Deblonay always come out and play moral relativism games and excuse what has been done with the lines “The US is the real terrorist” or “Israel is the real terrorist.”

  28. [2477
    confessions

    they rank about equal last in the honesty stakes

    Nah, Tisme is more honest than Brough! :D]

    ST only deceives himself, whereas Brough imagines he can dupe the public… 🙂

  29. Something the Seans of this world forget when they go on about the Labor Party white oz policy way back then. AFAIR reading, it was more about stopping bosses bringing in cheap foreign workers on near slave wages than any idea of racial purity. It was the 457 visa issue of its day.

  30. 2398

    The Chises Communists have form for this. Back in the 1960s, A Swede working in China was on the phone to his family in Sweden, in Swedish and the call was cut into with a message to speak English only and then cut off.

    When did the incident with you friend happen?

  31. Kezza #2414 I grew up in a family of five strong women, my mum and four sisters none of who seemed to take much notice of the male superior sex social norms.

  32. 2494
    Psephos

    Your point is well made and I’m with you on this: there is a lot of self-serving posturing goes on. One other consideration that I think is important is whether or not those who use violence are in some way accountable for their decisions and deeds – that is, whether they can be called on to defend their acts in a legally-constituted forum, and, potentially, face judicial charges if they are found to have acted beyond their writ. In the democracies, almost no-one is beyond the law. I think this itself distinguishes most State-sponsored violence from the arbitrary violence of “terrorists”.

    In this conception, violence – terrible as it might be – is still subject to the rule of law.

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