BludgerTrack: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition

After substantially narrowing last week, this week the two-party preferred poll aggregate gap all but disappears, while leaving the Coalition some breathing space on the seat projection.

It’s been a quieter week on the polling front in the wake of last week’s bonanza, with only the regular weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan added to the mix. The new additions do nothing to halt the momentum to Labor which emerged in the previous result, with shifts of 1.3% shift on the primary vote and 0.5% on two-party preferred. The latter gain is blunted by the fact that the Greens are down 1.2%, having failed of late to replicate a series of stronger results in early to mid-November. The two-party preferred measure is now being calculated with newly available preference flow results from the September 7 election, replacing modelled preference projections used previously. This hasn’t made much difference to the national result, but it’s helped eliminate an anomalous gain for the Liberals on the seat calculation in South Australia. The other change on the seat projection is an extra gain for Labor in New South Wales. It should be noted that the model continues to leave the Coalition well ahead of Labor despite the position of near-parity on two-party preferred, indicating the impact of “sophomore surge” effects on the BludgerTrack model in the seats Labor most needs to win. See the sidebar for full results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,516 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition”

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  1. rua:

    She can do other than condescension when she feels like it.

    Remember when she was on Qanda with PJ O’Reilly? Her fawning grovelling towards him was just embarrassing.

  2. kezza

    I use the Breeders Choice kitty litter recommended by BB some years ago, and don’t have any trouble with smell. Doesn’t need changing very often.

    More expensive up front than other brands but lasts longer and is definitely worth it.

  3. Puff

    I well remember the post of yours that Dave has unearthed. It was truly heart-wrenching, and superb.

    It feels like yesterday, yet 2-1/2 years have gone already. And, still, you have been, for me at least, a knowledge that life goes on, bewilderingly well, in the face of such loss.

    And you have been able to maintain a crisp sense of humour, and some pathos, and some anger, and lots of love.

    You don’t know it, but you have helped me enormously.

    Thanks, I wish I’d known your Arthur, he was a lucky man.

  4. dave – Done for Ptmd 🙂

    kezza

    [that wattle birds work at night, that is]

    Not a proven thing but just a personal observation. I’m careful with both.

    r

    TC

  5. [He also defended the inability of Australian authorities to intercept the vessel.

    “This is a very big ocean,” he said.

    “These are very small vessels and these 27 people who are now safe should count themselves extremely fortunate that they did not suffer a far worse fate.”]

    Slippery Morrison at it again.

    Christmas Island is not an ocean. It is an island. It is less than 30 km by 25 km. If Morrison can’t stop a boat from getting to CI, how can he possibly hope to stop boats from landing along several thousand kms of our northern coastline?

    He is a lyng dill.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/inquiry-into-arrivals-on-christmas-island/story-e6frfku9-1226777579813

  6. BW,

    That seems a little harsh (on the wattle birds that is). I haven’t seen them behaving badly. If we are being anthropomorphic, my main impression of the wattle birds is the great enjoyment they seem to get from flying through the sprinkler and preening themselves.

    BTW, I think crows are actually the Liberals of the bird world with their endless, discordant moaning.

  7. Guess you all know that Abbott is going to invite Shorten to accompany him to Mandela’s funeral.

    He is also happy to allow flags to fly at half mast in Australia on the day of Mandela’s funeral.

    What an ungracious moron he is.

  8. Centrelink Sean 2202

    [But this is a constant leftwing Greenie trick to try and scare everyone with “omg Nuklear!” when the reality is we already live in a world of radiation.

    Your house is radioactive. The sun shines radiation onto you every day, with Beta and Gamma Rays hitting your body. The ground is radioactive. The soil is radioactive.

    People need to understand this, then we can have a logical debate. Of course too much of anything is a bad thing, but we aren’t talking enriched uranium here we are talking about a slurry tank.]

    I shouldn’t entertain your stupidity but you really have your facts mixed up.

    For starters, you’re right about cosmic radiation and radiation in everyday items but your flaw is treating all radiation as if it is in homogeneous amounts. Do you honestly think the amount of radiation from the Potassium-40 in a banana is the same as that of a piece of uranium the same size?

    What do you think killed the Curies? Evil spirits?

    Actually you’re literally that stupid you probably do think that.

    Also, a lot of the gamma rays from the sun is deflected by the Ionosphere. Gamma rays are dangerous and if Earth were in the path of a nearby gamma ray burst (our sun isn’t powerful enough to produce one), all life would perish immediately. Radiation is very bad news. Just because there are trace amounts of it in things and a small amount of background cosmic radiation – all of which is safe, it doesn’t mean that the amount given off by the heavy elements is harmless. If you actually had a clue what you are talking about you’d know this but you seriously don’t, so stop trying and give up trying to be condescending with it – it makes you a joke.

  9. Puff

    Thanks for that link on Howard. “Thanks” meaning it clarified a few things for me. While he was PM there seemed to be a shadow over the country. In Abbott, we don’t have another Howard, we have heavy, clumping, senseless boots.

  10. [Jolyon Wagg
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 5:11 pm | PERMALINK
    Thanks all for the advice…I gave the wattle bird some quiet time in a small box with a couple of old towels, and some water. When I took the lid off it flapped around a bit and then flew off over the back fence :)]

    Good news, then, despite saving a neo-Nazi of the bird world (courtesy of BW).

    zoomster
    Thanks for the advice re the brand of kitty litter.

    Seriously, I can’t handle the pooper scooper, nor the wee shovel. Cats are outdoors animals. I’ve never had one since I left home some 40-odd years ago.

    That doesn’t say I don’t like them. I do.

    On the other hand, apart from bird deposits on the mat, Hammi has eradicated the mouse population. And that’s, despite bells, an absolute plus.

    PS. I used the leftover kittylitter in the ‘fat’ tray of the BBQ. Marvellous job.

  11. I think a Parisian drayman killed one of the Curies.

    The other one irradiated herself to buggery using xrays to assist war surgery in WW1.

  12. AA

    Mundine is a moron! President of the ALP and now working for Abbott and married to Gerard Henderson’s daughter.

    Turncoat is what he is and an ego maniac to boot!

  13. [I think a Parisian drayman killed one of the Curies.

    The other one irradiated herself to buggery using xrays to assist war surgery in WW1.]

    Oops! You’re right. Pierre died in an accident but Marie definitely died from illness caused by her exposure to radiation.

  14. Madonna King gives her CM space over to an open letter.

    [Dear Minister Pyne,

    You are a half-wit. I am sorry for the language but in a week where we voters have been called bogans by politicians, I think I should have the latitude to say that, sir.

    Do not just take my word for it. Ask any of the mums who collected their children from school yesterday afternoon for the last time this year.

    You see, you politicians always find a way of taking back a little bit of what we earn. I heard some other bigwig in your government call it “clawing back” but we know that is code for “ripping off”.

    Anyway, with all that “clawing back” going on, there is probably only two things we can really give our children now. The first is unconditional love and our house is packed with that stuff. In fact, you blokes in Parliament might benefit from a bit more of it too. I do not think it is confined to bogans or anything.

    Anyway, the only other promise you can make to your children is that you will give them a good education.

    Now I know “promise” means something else in that big, flash Parliament House but in our house it means a guarantee.

    No ifs or buts about it.

    So this is my problem, sir. My children are covered in the unconditional love department but how can I promise them a good education when you do not have a clue what you are doing?

    Now, I know I am no Einstein or whoever he was, but my old man says you are not either. So let’s speak pretty plainly here. How can we really be three years behind students from Shanghai in maths? I am not even sure where Shanghai is, but you probably can visit it on one of those parliamentary delegation tours.

    Anyway, that OECD report out this week was scary. Did it not show we had fallen from 15th to 19th in maths and ninth to 14th in reading? Gee, if my children brought home a report card showing their marks had slipped that much I would think they were mixing with the wrong crowd, or that their teacher was not much chop.

    I guess, without beating around the bush too much, that is what I think about you. Sir, you are mixing with the wrong crowd. Why else would you have junked Gonski after supporting it so strongly?

    Except, of course, the support was before you were elected and then you decided to Gonski your promise after you were elected. My old man says it is all in the timing too.

    Anyway, to my second point. You have shown you are not much chop as Education Minister. I am not sure if you use that sort of language in South Australia, where you come from, because you sound a bit posh on the tele. But it really means you seem to be stuffing up education, sir.

    Now you are not Robinson Crusoe there. It seems every education minister wants to junk what the one before him did because he can.

    But that is no way to run a billion-dollar education system. Every bogan knows that.

    Now you have dumped Gonski, kind of. Well, it is a bit hard to work out what you have done to him, but it was not nice. To be honest, because someone needs to tell you this, it is not about you. It is about the children, stupid.

    But it means we’re on the education merry-go-round again where there’s no direction, and no real plan to lift our kids’ performance.

    I want mine to get a job, if there’s any jobs left then. I want them to try really hard so they can be whatever they want; even a politician if they like the look of the gravy train

    I know I am just a bogan from Queensland but my children mean the world to me. Would you think about a real plan for education, with strategy and stuff and really commit to it?

    I don’t know about the circles you mix in, but the Mums and the Dads at the school gate would sure think it was ace.

    Yours sincerely,

    Mrs Boe Gan,

    Norman Park,

    Queensland]

  15. confessions

    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 5:41 pm | Permalink

    and married to Gerard Henderson’s daughter.

    It is irrelevant who Mundine is married to.
    =================================================

    I agree but remind you of the yelping lunatic raving Liberals about the GG son-in-law

  16. confessions

    In one sense irrelevant, yes, but it is inevitable that marriage brings ties to a group of people who influence thinking and attitudes.

  17. Puffy 2268

    Just read your comment and blog, thank you and you know why, Arthur is with you, you just can’t see him but he is there and always will be

  18. [Speaking of which, psephos, why are’t you on your honeymoon. Or are you like Julia Gillard and don’t believe in the institution of marriage?]

    * I don’t live in the ACT.
    * I don’t believe in marriage.
    * I particularly don’t believe in same-sex marriage.
    * No-one would marry me anyway.

  19. Having lived and worked with Indigenous people for many decades, I have mixed feelings about Mundine.

    Back in the early 1970s, when I started working in the area, Indigenous people had been through the mill.

    All the odds had been stacked against them: guns, germs, theft of a continent, theft of food sources, theft of waterholes, theft of culture, a horrible mixture of over- and under- policing, education, theft of culture and theft of children. In how many ways did whites, deliberately or accidentally, damage or destroy Indigenous people?

    Forty years later and, in Mundine, we see a very, very successful Indigenous person.

    I don’t like him. I don’t like his views. I don’t like his values. I don’t like the way he goes about things. But, by golly, he has learned all the many lessons our wonderful culture has on offer, and has applied them successfully.

    Judge not that ye be not judged?

  20. paaptsf

    My conjectures:

    (1) it is after insects caught in urban crannies
    (2) it is after a sip from the tap
    (3) it is after either spider webs or a bit of the fibre visible in the photo, for nest building.
    (4) it is Abbott and clueless.

  21. [Carey Moore
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 5:38 pm | PERMALINK
    Marie

    Or as Sean labels her: “That uppity, giggling, bimbo bitch who took credit for her husband’s work but sexist lefties deny it.”]

    I agree not sure if you mean me or Marie Curie?

  22. AA:

    It’s because of the stupid complaining about who Shorten is married to that I object to the same digs at Mundine. Besides, Mundine’s wife can’t help who her father is.

  23. [but it is inevitable that marriage brings ties to a group of people who influence thinking and attitudes.]

    Is it? One side of my family are wealthy conservative, Liberal-voting types. Despite growing up being surrounded by these people their views have not influenced my thinking or attitudes at all, other than to be repulsed by their casual indifference to people who are less advantaged than they are.

  24. Boerwar, as true as (4) is, it had actually discovered a tiny leak inside the wall where the pipe goes through. However it stayed still in that position for ages and looked to be snoozing

  25. Interesting to see the various reactions to Nelson Mandela’s passing from the reactionaries who did their best to allow Apartheid to continue and hence keep Mandela in goal. The fact that Thatcher, Reagan and Busch in the 1980s still had Mandela labelled as a terrorist says a lot.

    Mandela a great inspiration for the struggle for equality, socialism and reconciliation thoughout the world. Let keep the flame burning.

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