The Australian reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48, down from 53-47 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (down two), 35% for Labor (up three) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Bonham in comments observes that Newspoll is still using 2010 preferences, and believes the result may have been 51-49 off those of the September election. More to follow.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down three to 42% and his disapproval is up four to 42%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 39% and up three to 27% (a considerably more modest result than his 51% and 30% from Nielsen). Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 46-30 to 44-33.
Tomorrow should bring the weekly Essential Research fortnightly aggregate, which we learned today has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36% but the Coalition two-party preferred lead steady at 53-47, and primary votes from the ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night, which Channel Seven this evening reported as having the Coalition leading 51-49.
UPDATE 2 (ReachTel): The ReachTEL poll has the Coalition down on a month ago from to 45.4% to 43.8%, Labor down from 35.3% to 34.2%, the Greens up from 8.6% to 9.8%, the Palmer United Party up from 5.7% to 6.6% and others up from 4.9% to 5.7%. These fairly modest changes have resulted in a two-party preferred shift from 52-48 to the Coalition to 51-49.
UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The Essential Research poll has both major parties up a point, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 45%, with the balance coming off rounding, the Greens and others being steady at 9% and 11% respectively. Two-party preferred is steady at 53-47. Also included are questions on foreign affairs, the most interesting findings of which are that 29% rate the government’s handling of the Indonesian relationship as good versus 42% for poor, and 49% expect relations with Indonesia to worsen under the new government compared with only 11% who think they will improve. Improvements are expected to worsen slightly with China and India, but to improve with English-speaking countries. A question on the importance of Australia’s various international relationships finds increases since early last month in the “very important” rating for every country except New Zealand. The new government also scores weakly on the question of “trust in the government’s handling of international relations”, with “no trust” the most popular of four responses at 35%. Respondents are not generally exercised about the thought of Australia spying on Indonesian leaders, which is supported by 39% and opposed by 23%. Other questions find 18% rating the new government’s performance as better than expected, 27% as worse and 47% “about what expected” and 15% favouring cuts to services and higher taxes to return the budget to surplus against 69% who would prefer delaying the return to surplus.
UPDATE 4 (Essential Research state polling): Essential Research has released results of state voting intention for the three largest states from its last month of polling, all of it well in line with what we’ve been seeing elsewhere recently:
• In New South Wales, the Coalition has a lead of 58-42, which compares with 64.2-35.8 at the election. Primary votes are 49% Coalition (down 2.1% on the election), 33% Labor (up 7.4%) and 8% Greens (down 2.3%).
• In Victoria, Labor leads 52-48 (51.6-48.4 to the Coalition at the election). Primary votes are 41% Coalition (down 3.8%), 38% Labor (up 1.8%) and 13% Greens (up 1.8%).
• In Queensland, the Liberal National Party leads 57-43 (62.8-37.2 at the election). Primary votes are 46% LNP (down 3.7%), 32% Labor (up 5.3%) and 7% Greens (down 0.5%).
You get some sort of sense that Abbott’s SpyGate is running out of control in Indonesia:
[THE Indonesian parliament’s defence and foreign affairs committee will hold a special hearing into the spying allegations that has caused a diplomatic rift between Jakarta and Canberra.
It’s understood the list of senior Indonesian officials expected to appear at the Commission One hearing includes Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa, Defence Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro and the head of the State Intelligence Office (BIN), Marciano Norman.
“The agenda will be phone-tapping,” a Commission One official said, while also confirming the list of those asked to attend.
National police chief Sutarman and the head of the National Encryption Body, Major General Djoko Setiadi, have also been asked to attend.
The hearing into the alleged phone-hacking undertaken by Australian spies in 2009, to be held on Thursday morning, comes amid continued dissatisfaction in Jakarta over Canberra’s response to the spying claims.]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/sby-disappointed-with-abbott-letter/story-fni0xqll-1226769655750
Peter Costello, the Australian Treasurer decided back in 1997 to sell 2 billion dollars worth of gold bullion. This was about two thirds of the Australian gold reserves. Costello believed that gold is no longer important for the financial system.
People have congratulated Costello for his move, especially because three days after he sold the gold, the price went down. The executive chairman of Australia’s largest gold mining group, Normandy mining, declared that he thought that the situation was carelessly conducted and that the results are in shades of grey.
Australia managed to pay lot of its debt with the money it made from selling the gold, but this move costed billions of dollars afterwards. While Australia was making these bad financial moves, China was making its strategic moves towards a better and profitable future. All the while Australia was selling a big part of its gold reserve, China was buying gold and not saying a word about it. China admitted in 1999 to having bought 454 tons of gold over the past six years. The world was shocked by the news but Australia was even more because presumably, some of the gold bought by China was Australian gold.
Australia’s financial move was not the best move one country could make because Peter Costello at that time failed to take into consideration the political and financial aspects of our times. Learning form other people’s mistake is one of the best things you can do. The other best thing is to invest in gold lime China does and you will see that your annual profit will have an upward trend.
[A triple 😆 😆 😆 for that comment.]
poroti:
Does this come to mind?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RS0KyTZ3Ie4
ReachTEL Ashgrove poll thread:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/11/27/reachtel-labor-leads-campbell-newman-52-48-in-ashgrove/
Boerwar:
It looks like the usual parliamentary argy-bargy in an election year to me.
East Timor accuses Australia of spying for commercial gain during Timor sea negotiations
Can Abbott apologise for this spying?
He can’t blame Labor.
It was done with Howard as PM and Abbott a Minster.
@AA/1906
That is ummm, Operational Matters….
Surely the LNP will shift Newman to a safer seat before the next Qld state election?
[ East Timor accuses Australia of spying for commercial gain during Timor sea negotiations ]
Yes, apparently we did. Andrew Robb told me so.
[ Can Abbott apologise for this spying? ]
No. Abbott doesn’t “do” apologies. Apologies are for wimpy “lefties” like Rudd.
[ He can’t blame Labor. ]
Oh no? Just wait and see!
[ It was done with Howard as PM and Abbott a Minster. ]
Abbott is a church now? Well, in his own mind, perhaps …
Asset sales are used to pay down Labor debt, they do NOT add to budget revenues.
What paying down Labor debt does do however is reduce interest repayments by the government which reduces ongoing budget expenditure.
@Sean/1910
Excuses – Excuses.
Under Howard we had a Foreign Debt problem, go figure.
Sean Tisme@1910
In other words, it’s a zero-sum gain that only idiots would ever want to implement.
Anyone read Indonesian ?
Left Justice @TurnLeft16 8m
seriously, SBY just totally punked Abbott and Pyne, read his latest tweet https://twitter.com/SBYudhoyono/status/405653971299102721 …
Schnappi:
The tweet reads thus:
[Pd warnings of teachers ‘ day this afternoon, the President say thank you for the work of the teachers, devotion & fighter education across the country.]
The Ocean Protector reminds me of the guards outside the Wicked Witch’s castle in Wizard of Oz. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jtie6r27JeU
[In other words, it’s a zero-sum gain that only idiots would ever want to implement.]
If you aren’t paying hundreds of millions of dollars in interest repayments on your debt, you could be spending that money on schools and hospitals instead.
So no, it’s not a zero sum game. Money doesn’t grown on trees, the government has X amount of dollars, they can’t be spending X+Y amount.
Teachers Day Schnappi!
Sean
Asset sales are classed as revenue often as Plant, Property & Equipment before being allocated to debt repayment.
@Sean/1916
You have a total contradictory post.
1. You said we instead of paying interests, could be spent on schools and hospitals instead.
2. You then said, that Money doesn’t grow on trees.
3. Finally, with the whole Gonski broken promise gone to the bin, your first point is invalid, and you should be removed from this blog for making invalid,
@continued at 1919, invalid, incorrect, wrong information.
(press the post button too soon).
Assets that anyone wants to buy actually make money, so the Government loses the revenue stream from the assets – CBA, Telstra, etc all made lots of money for the Government when they were Government owned.
The real reason to sell a Government business is if the presence of the Government in the marketplace is acting as a distorting/inhibiting/anti-competitive force.
“Paying down debt”, unless debt is an overwhelming problem, which it certainly isn’t at the moment, is not a good reason to be selling Government assets.
Just saw something on ABC that I was not aware of.
Chaser Craig Reucassel is hosting a show “Shock Horror Aunty” ???? about controversial ABC comedy pieces over the last 40 years.
One bit was a Chaser follow up to Tony Jones asking Abbott (2004? 2007?) whether he’d had a meeting with Pell the previous week. Abbott lied that he hadn’t then “remembered” later in the I/V that he had.
A few days later Reucassel dressed as a bishop surprised Abbott at a physical jerk event and offered to hear his confession about disavowing his Pell meeting.
And how did Abbott respond ….. with a Mark Riley shit happens silence …… head wobbling, nodding, looking like a fool just as he would years later with Riley.
I was unaware Abbott had form in that type of response to a difficult question.
Actually under the Accounting Standards Asset Sales need to be recorded in both the Cash Flow Statement and Balance Sheet.
[ I was unaware Abbott had form in that type of response to a difficult question. ]
Good pick up. This would be a great response to a difficult question asked of Abbott … say … in a on-one-one chat with SBY.
God, what a moron we have for a PM!
The local primary school my kids went to (last one leaving this year) has under Labor gone from an old 19th/early20thC brick box that we all remember to a smart up to date educational facility with library, vastly improved facilities & modern air-conditioned class rooms. Basically they rebuilt the school from the ground up & increased student enrollments significantly.
Labor had a forward vision with education in the public sector. Pyne seems hell bent on tearing this down so that in 10-15 years tome we will be faced with the same old run down schools.
I recall Turnbull cheakily offering to help Labor with its budget at the beginning of the first Rudd govt, at the time Swan was looking pretty bad in the Parliament.
Labor could do the same to Abbott Coalition, stating that the situation is too dire, to out of control to let go and that Labor has a some very competent FA experts on hand they are willing to allow take over the management of affairs…and fix them up for them.
And if fact if required Labor would be willing to provide a person to be the FA minister.
Jachol is quite right, the purpose of the Government departing an industry is to try and open up competition which is seen as more equitable than the government operating what otherwise may be a Monopoly
[ Labor had a forward vision with education in the public sector. Pyne seems hell bent on tearing this down so that in 10-15 years tome we will be faced with the same old run down schools. ]
Hey! Be fair! If you send your kids to a private school they’ll be knee-deep in polo ponies, golf courses, rugby fields and private tutors!
@Jackol/1921
Exactly, and further more, the costs to keep the copper running all this time, would be out weighing the cost of selling the assist.
I use Telstra as a prime example, because it’s a good one, when they sold it, and now trying to re-use the same assets for their slow-out-dated lotto network.
[1. You said we instead of paying interests, could be spent on schools and hospitals instead.
2. You then said, that Money doesn’t grow on trees.
3. Finally, with the whole Gonski broken promise gone to the bin, your first point is invalid, and you should be removed from this blog for making invalid,]
And if you read my post earlier today you would have seen that I said Gonski’s would be an okay policy if the budget is in surplus… which it isn’t… in fact it is going backwards.
Goneski’s is a like to have, but can’t afford, policy.
Hate to boast but my state school had
-Two Footy grounds
-Four outdoor Basketball courts
-One multi-purpose sports area
-Two Tennis Courts
-Indoor Basketball Court
-Owned its own rural property for school camps
*Sadly the site is now a Nursing Home*
I’ve really been enjoying Shock! Horror! Aunty!
Nostalgia …
@Sean/1930
lol.
“If this was in surplus”.
Oh right, after you sold everything like you did last time, we have to start all over again, right?
Take the easy way out.
1904
What about a Victorian state Essential Research thread?
[ And if you read my post earlier today … ]
C’mon, Sean! Nobody can be expected to read two of your posts in the same day! – comedy gems like yours should be savored!
Sean
Part of the reason why the budget isn’t in surplus is because we have a large number of Australians that are considered unskilled.
Many more Australians are in low paid employment because they are deemed under-skilled.
The opportunity cost of this on the budget is substantial and will only get worst as the baby boomers start to retire.
If the government is really hard up the first thing it will do is advise those schools that have alternative sources of income that they will not longer receive taxpayers money.
Next the government will advise the private education service providers that unless employers start to embrace their graduates they too will lose taxpayers money.
The budget was trending towards surplus so only basic steps are needed to get it there.
[ *Sadly the site is now a Nursing Home* ]
Owned and operated by …. ?
Sean Tisme
Posted Wednesday, November 27, 2013 at 10:10 pm | Permalink
Asset sales are used to pay down Labor debt, they do NOT add to budget revenues.
What paying down Labor debt does do however is reduce interest repayments by the government which reduces ongoing budget expenditure.
==============================================
Still out of touch with the reality that $40 billion of that debt was passed to Labor by Fraser and Howard
Good evening
Lateline introduction is all bad news for Abbott and company.
[ Part of the reason why the budget isn’t in surplus is because we have a large number of Australians that are considered unskilled. ]
A perfect description of the LNP front bench!
… and this is also why there’s no urgency in selling MBP. There is, to my mind, no indication that MBP is inhibiting competition in the private health insurance market, and MBP is making a commercial return on investment.
So selling MBP to ‘pay off debt’ makes no sense at all – assets that are making 7% ROI (or whatever it is) which, at the moment goes straight to the government being sold to pay off debt that the government is servicing with 3% interest rates??? That just doesn’t make economic sense.
MBP being sold is about ideology, not the budget.
Now, personally I don’t feel particularly attached to MBP as a Government owned asset, so I don’t really care that much that they are going to sell it, but some honesty about why it is being sold would be nice.
And if they try to sell Australia Post I’ll be ropeable.
Sean’s scared that if Gonski was fully and properly implemented there would be a generation of 4 year olds smarter than him
@mb/1936
Exactly, both you and I, I believe we had this conversation a little while ago about skills and training.
It’s a pitty that Sean didn’t take it in (or the Coalition Party).
Player One
Good question i don’t know, its like a large retirement village, the Secondary College merged with a near-by school and the old site was sold off.
[The USSR?
It vanished in 1990
I think he is in Russia
]
This might actually be the core of Julie Bishop’s problem – she’s trying to use an out of date White Pages to contact the USSR for discussions…
(Remember when she went on and on in Parliament about a Chinese/Australian businessman being detained in China?)
AA
[Still out of touch with the reality that $40 billion of that debt was passed to Labor by Fraser and Howard]
And that debt service is like any other cost. If the assets/services to which the debt service relates exceed the cost of the debt service, the community wins.
Whether the budget is in surplus at any time in that process is a mere footnote.
Paying down debt is a bad thing if it settles cost inequitably between beneficiary groups and especially if its consequence is to disrupt productive activity.
The Australian people are voting with their money. $800 000 donated to save the children alone.
This a prelude to what charities are folding due to Abbott Foreign Aid cuts.
[ And if they try to sell Australia Post I’ll be ropeable. ]
Ah! A quandary!
Australia post is currently making a small fortune out of postal charges for imported goods bought online by Australians trying to avoid the rip-off prices charged by Australian retailers.
So why sell it?
Obvious answer: Sell Australia Post while it looks like a profitable business, then (once it is safely sold) lower the GST-free threshold and drive it out of business!
Win-Win for Australian Retailers!
@AA/1942
Children doing programing around the age 10? nooo, can’t be!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/10468460/Coding-for-kids-schoolchildren-learn-computer-programming.html
The thing to remember about budgets is even if it is in surplus there is still liabilities being accrued during the accounting period.