Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Another poll with 52-48 two-party preferred – but this time in the opposite direction.

The Australian reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48, down from 53-47 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (down two), 35% for Labor (up three) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Bonham in comments observes that Newspoll is still using 2010 preferences, and believes the result may have been 51-49 off those of the September election. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down three to 42% and his disapproval is up four to 42%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 39% and up three to 27% (a considerably more modest result than his 51% and 30% from Nielsen). Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 46-30 to 44-33.

Tomorrow should bring the weekly Essential Research fortnightly aggregate, which we learned today has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36% but the Coalition two-party preferred lead steady at 53-47, and primary votes from the ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night, which Channel Seven this evening reported as having the Coalition leading 51-49.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTel): The ReachTEL poll has the Coalition down on a month ago from to 45.4% to 43.8%, Labor down from 35.3% to 34.2%, the Greens up from 8.6% to 9.8%, the Palmer United Party up from 5.7% to 6.6% and others up from 4.9% to 5.7%. These fairly modest changes have resulted in a two-party preferred shift from 52-48 to the Coalition to 51-49.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The Essential Research poll has both major parties up a point, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 45%, with the balance coming off rounding, the Greens and others being steady at 9% and 11% respectively. Two-party preferred is steady at 53-47. Also included are questions on foreign affairs, the most interesting findings of which are that 29% rate the government’s handling of the Indonesian relationship as good versus 42% for poor, and 49% expect relations with Indonesia to worsen under the new government compared with only 11% who think they will improve. Improvements are expected to worsen slightly with China and India, but to improve with English-speaking countries. A question on the importance of Australia’s various international relationships finds increases since early last month in the “very important” rating for every country except New Zealand. The new government also scores weakly on the question of “trust in the government’s handling of international relations”, with “no trust” the most popular of four responses at 35%. Respondents are not generally exercised about the thought of Australia spying on Indonesian leaders, which is supported by 39% and opposed by 23%. Other questions find 18% rating the new government’s performance as better than expected, 27% as worse and 47% “about what expected” and 15% favouring cuts to services and higher taxes to return the budget to surplus against 69% who would prefer delaying the return to surplus.

UPDATE 4 (Essential Research state polling): Essential Research has released results of state voting intention for the three largest states from its last month of polling, all of it well in line with what we’ve been seeing elsewhere recently:

• In New South Wales, the Coalition has a lead of 58-42, which compares with 64.2-35.8 at the election. Primary votes are 49% Coalition (down 2.1% on the election), 33% Labor (up 7.4%) and 8% Greens (down 2.3%).

• In Victoria, Labor leads 52-48 (51.6-48.4 to the Coalition at the election). Primary votes are 41% Coalition (down 3.8%), 38% Labor (up 1.8%) and 13% Greens (up 1.8%).

• In Queensland, the Liberal National Party leads 57-43 (62.8-37.2 at the election). Primary votes are 46% LNP (down 3.7%), 32% Labor (up 5.3%) and 7% Greens (down 0.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,061 thoughts on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 38 of 42
1 … 37 38 39 … 42

  1. Boerwar@1804

    I have said for years that we had two rotten apples in Australian politics. Rudd has gone. Now it is over to the Liberals (or the poor old voters) to get rid of Abbott.

    That’s a good comparison. I’ll use that in conversation with those deluded by the libs.

  2. If only those pesky Indonesians stopped waving their sovereignty in our faces, the damn cheek of the blighters.

    Thank God we have a Rhodes Scholar as PM!

    Cecil certainly knew how to deal with these uppity nig-nogs:

    “We must find new lands from which we can easily obtain raw materials and at the same time exploit the cheap slave labour that is available from the natives of the colonies. The colonies would also provide a dumping ground for the surplus goods produced in our factories.”

    – Cecil Rhodes

  3. haines
    Posted Wednesday, November 27, 2013 at 8:53 pm | Permalink

    Now the only story the ALP and sympathetic elements of the media can run with is that they arent being fed a story

    Try to pay more attention –

    – abbott is breaking election pledges, causing damaging to important relationships, closing down the normal flow of information across the range of government and hiding away himself.

    Plenty of stories around and plenty of tory stuff ups.

  4. Player One

    Posted Wednesday, November 27, 2013 at 8:53 pm | Permalink

    But the GST broadening on imports is another hot button issue.

    FFS! Just lower the GST-free limit to $500
    ==================================================

    FFS it will cost nearly 4 times what it raises to manage and oversee.

    Raise $500 million, cost $2 billion….Hockeynomics

  5. On 3AW conservative callers and Tom Elliot are hard pressed to explain away Abbott’/s broken promises of Goinsji…and won’t hear a comparison with the Carbon Tax and Gillard..
    very amusing to see the tables turned

  11. Raise $500 million, cost $2 billion….Hockeynomics

    You missed a couple of important steps:

    Raise $500 million. Tick!
    Make Gerry Harvey $100 million. Tick!
    Make LNP $1 million in thankful donations. Tick!
    Cost taxpayers $2 billion. Who cares?

  14. I was thinking today about Pyne crapping on about Labor ripping $1.2b out of the school reforms program & how the changes Labor proposed to the FBT on cars would have covered it.

    Libs like rorts.

  15. Talking about foreign relations & our esteemed ministers who we know can handle all matter of diplomacy, is the Tasi radio operator still in a USSR lock up?

    Yep he is the only one, all the rest are out on bail. Well done Julie.

  16. The Abbott Gonski stuff was an obvious political strategy to remove a positive from his opponent. He lied to achieve this.

    I hope the mug punters start to realise that this isn’t a one off broken promise but part of a systematic pattern of behavior.

    We could all see the Liberals didn’t want Gonski but were willing to flat out lie about it.

    We could all see that direct action was a fiction invented to neutralize Labor’s genuine climate change policy.

    We could all see that fraudband was a disaster waiting to happen, that it cannot deliver either “sooner” or “cheaper” and with closer scrutiny was obviously (before the election) yet another fiction designed to neutralize Labor on an important issue.

    In other words, the Liberals, rather than having anything positive to offer the country, systematically, willfully, lied, cheated, and manipulated.

    Now lets see what other things are lies too.

  17. Boerwar@1860


    Dave
    cf India and the Malacca Strait, hence Sri Lanka and Myanmar, yep.

    Just came across this which might be worth a read at your leisure –

    Indo-Pacific Maritime Security in the 21st Century

    Sponsored by the US Naval War College and
    Lowy Institute for International Policy

    http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=9&cad=rja&ved=0CHYQFjAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.lowyinstitute.org%2Ffiles%2Findo-pacific_maritime_security_in_the_21st_century.pdf&ei=ZcSVUv__HIfKkgWH7oHICg&usg=AFQjCNHtfwlWS9yTeEsJmWrwNZXAIMGJzw&sig2=kvGgdH9pae2wxNfIqq7YFQ&bvm=bv.57155469,d.dGI

  18. “FOREIGN Minister Julie Bishop could be given the delicate job of helping mend the diplomatic rift with Indonesia over allegations of Australian spying activities.”

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/susilo-bambang-yudhoyono-angry-tony-abbott-didnt-apologise-for-spying/story-fn9hm1gu-1226769671593

    COULD be given the delicate job?

    What are we paying this useless piece of baggage for?

    She is the Foreign Minister! Did she think the job was just attending cocktail parties?

  19. More broken Barnett election promises on Ch7. The shark net he promised at Dunsborough and Coogee, reported by Ch7 news as having stalled since the election. Suddenly, miraculously reinvigorated today, a total surprise to the company supposed to be constructing it after the death of that surfer off Gracetown.

    And the CBD rail line promise, stalled for reasons I forget, suddenly inconveniently back in the spotlight today after the release of a new masterplan for the Northbridge-CBD link. None of this is likely to be remembered by voters in 3.5 years time when we have our next election.

    I reckon Mumble is right; if you’re going to break promises, break them early on in your term, leaving you sufficient space and time to remedy your actions well in time for the election.

  20. Something odd happened to me today.

    As I was waiting to cross a six lane road this afternoon a bicyclist peddled towards me up the hill in the bike lane. I had to wait for cars and as the bicyclist came closer our eyes met briefly and then parted. It was then I noticed a cardboard sign, with big red writing on it, attached to the front bikebasket. It read,

    ‘victim of stalking rape’.

    The bicycle, the sign, and the rider passed me by and I crossed the road.

  22. Hmmmm, why has Ocean Protector taken up an east west two step so much closer to CI than before?

    What do they know that we don’t?

    Or is it just because it is getting towards afternoon there, ca 5.15 pm?

  23. We could all see the Liberals didn’t want Gonski but were willing to flat out lie about it.

    From memory we all scoffed at Abbott’s declarations of a ‘unity ticket’ with Labor, but the press gallery largely accepted his statements at face value.

    Of course it’s too late now, they’ll get away with it. And public schools in Australia will be the primary victims of this fraud.

  28. I reckon Mumble is right; if you’re going to break promises, break them early on in your term, leaving you sufficient space and time to remedy your actions well in time for the election.

    Only works if you’re also a Conservative and have the support of Rupert. Gillard is a good example.

  31. From memory we all scoffed at Abbott’s declarations of a ‘unity ticket’ with Labor, but the press gallery largely accepted his statements at face value.

    They took Turnbull on face value too and all his obvious lies about fraudband. Can’t believe the media going “oh well.. he’s a trustworthy kinda guy.. we won’t be skeptical.. we won’t point out that FTTN just won’t work”

  32. Fair Dinkum, now the Liberals have pissed off the Comrades with their ham-fisted diplomacy.

    The adults are now in charge?

    Echoing the sentiments of the Japanese and the United States, Ms Bishop said the timing and manner of China’s announcement was ”unhelpful in light of current regional tensions, and will not contribute to regional stability”.
    Advertisement
    ”Australia has made clear its opposition to any coercive or unilateral actions to change the status quo in the East China Sea,” she said on Tuesday.
    But in a sternly-worded statement on Wednesday, the Chinese foreign ministry warned the Foreign Minister to ”correct” her characterisation of its new air defence zone or risk damaging bilateral ties.
    ”It is completely a mistake for Australia to make irresponsible remarks on China’s establishment of an air defence identification zone in the East China Sea, and the Chinese side will not accept it,” foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang said.
    ”China urges Australia to correct its mistake immediately to prevent damaging Sino-Australia relations.”
    The fall-out threatens to sour the mood for Ms Bishop’s imminent visit to China – her first as foreign minister – and comes as the Abbott government pushes aggressively to seal a much-vaunted free trade deal with its largest trading partner within a year.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/beijing-furious-over-julie-bishops-irresponsible—remarks-20131127-2ya2q.html#ixzz2lq9mZbXx

  36. They took Turnbull on face value too and all his obvious lies about fraudband.

    Turnbull didn’t lie about Fraudband! It was Einstein and all them other quantum physicists! Did you know many of them are actually Jewish?

  37. Bishop reads badly written speeches and unnecessarily offends the Chinese. She couldn’t be expected to contribute something positive to the Country.

  38. They took Turnbull on face value too and all his obvious lies about fraudband.

    And Hockey’s blustering about budget emergencies.

    Frankly, the past two election campaigns, and the years in between haven’t reflected well on Canberra’s press gallery, or the nation’s media.

  39. Our government must have hit some sort of record for the most countries pissed off in the shortest time.

    Here’s another one. And this one was definitely on Howard’s watch and while Abbott was a minister.

    East Timor accuses Australia of spying for commercial gain during Timor sea negotiations

    Australia is under further pressure over spying in the region, with East Timor accusing spies of bugging its cabinet room for commercial advantage, and threatening to scrap a potentially lucrative treaty that could have earned Australia billions in royalties.

    A senior figure in East Timor’s government says the Australian Secret Intelligence Service (ASIS) covertly recorded Timorese ministers and officials in Dili in 2004.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-27/east-timor-says-australia-spied-for-commercial-gain/5120738?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

  40. Asset sales are off budget AA.

    You’ve been told this over and over again and I know leftists aren’t good with facts but try to let it sink in.

  42. You’ve been told this over and over again and I know leftists aren’t good with facts but try to let it sink in.

    We’re not good with facts because we actually remember them, rather than making them up “on the fly” like you do.

  43. I’ve had to turn the TV off. Too many Liberal supporting morons using low life weasel words to justify the Gonski lie.

    And did you know Gonski was actually Jewish?

  45. So here it was 1997 and Australia had sold two thirds of its gold assets in a single day, and sold into a buyer’s market.

    While the sale helped pay down debts, the deal was to cost Australia billions of dollars in the long run. But at the time people were lining up to congratulate the Treasurer.

  47. Keating said in late 2009:
    Mr Keating accused Mr Costello of presiding over the growth of Australian debt abroad from $129 billion in 1996, to $705 billion in 2007.
    ”The Future Fund is all about national savings, yet, during Costello’s period as treasurer, national savings were so depleted,” he said.
    ”Costello was a policy bum of the first order who squandered 11 years of economic opportunity.”

  48. Sean Tisme

    You’ve been told this over and over again and I know leftists aren’t good with facts

    A triple 😆 😆 😆 for that comment. No matter how slow people type and no matter how many times you have been told you are still ,apparently, unable to comprehend the difference between a carbon “tax” and putting a price on carbon emissions.

  49. Player One

    Posted Wednesday, November 27, 2013 at 9:49 pm | Permalink

    I’ve had to turn the TV off. Too many Liberal supporting morons using low life weasel words to justify the Gonski lie.

    And did you know Gonski was actually Jewish?
    =================================================
    Gonski was actually Jewish

    What’s that got to do with anything?

Comments Page 38 of 42
1 … 37 38 39 … 42

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *