The Abbott government’s mediocre post-election polling record takes a considerable turn for the worse today with the publication of the first Fairfax/Nielsen poll since the election, which is the Coalition’s worst result from Nielsen since the 2010 election campaign, or from any poll at all since the months immediately following. The poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens, 5% for “independents” (an unorthodox inclusion) and 6% for others. Bill Shorten scores remarkably strongly on his debut personal ratings, with approval at 51% and disapproval at 30%, while Tony Abbott manages a tepid 47% approval and 46% disapproval. However, Abbott holds a 49-41 lead as preferred prime minister.
Full tables including state breakdowns are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes, and they offer at least some ammunition for those of a mind to be skeptical about the result. With due consideration to the fact that an element of wonkiness can be expected from small state-level samples, there are approximate two-party preferred swings to Labor of 2% in New South Wales, 4% in Victoria and 1.5% in South Australia, all of which are easy enough to believe. However, in both Queensland and Western Australia the swings are 11%, the former result coming less than two weeks after an 800-sample poll by Galaxy showed no swing at all. It’s tempting to infer that Nielsen struck Labor-heavy samples in these states, and that had it been otherwise the result would have been more like 50-50.
A more technical observation to be made about the result is that the two-party preferred figures are based on respondent-allocated preferences, whereas Nielsen’s topline numbers are usually based on preference flows from the previous election. This no doubt is because the Australian Electoral Commission still hasn’t published Coalition-versus-Labor two-party results from the 11 seats where other candidates made the final count (I’m told they are likely to do so later this week). However, I have one model for allocating preferences based on the information available from the election, which gets Labor’s two-party vote to 51.7%, and Kevin Bonham has two, which get it to 51.2% and 51.4%.
The Nielsen poll also probed into the hot topics of asylum seekers and abolition of the carbon and mining taxes. Only 42% expressed approval for the government’s handling of asylum seekers versus 50% disapproval – though as Psephos notes in comments, this fails to disentangle those who support their objectives from those who don’t (a ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night asked whether the policies were working, and found only 28% thought they were compared with 49% who thought they weren’t). The results on the mining tax were evenly balanced, with 46% saying Labor should support its repeal in parliament versus 47% opposed. The carbon tax at least remains a winner for the government, with 57% saying Labor should vote for its abolition and 38% saying it should oppose it.
In other news, Christian Kerr of The Australian reports on Newspoll analysis of the effect on polling of households without landlines. This was determined through online polling between March and August of nearly 10,000 respondents who were also asked about the state of their household telecommunications. In households without landlines, Coalition support was found to be 1.4% lower, Labor 0.2% lower, the Greens 1.3% higher and “others” 0.2% higher. However, Newspoll’s online polling itself seemed to be skewed to Labor, who came in 4.7% higher than in Newspoll’s landline polling over the same period. This was mostly at the expense of others, which was 4.7% lower, while the Coalition was 0.6% higher and the Greens 1.0% lower. By way of comparison, the online polling of Essential Research over the same period compared with Newspoll’s phone polling as follows: Labor 2.1% higher, the Coalition 3.2% higher, Greens 2.8% lower and others 2.5% lower.
UPDATE: Channel Seven reports that long-awaited ReachTEL result has the Coalition leading 51-49, but unfortunately no further detail is provided. Results earlier released by Seven from the poll include the aforementioned finding that only 28% believe the government’s new policies to stop boat arrivals were working versus 49% who don’t; that 56% say the government should announce boat arrivals when they happenl that 53% think the Prime Minister should deliver the explanation for spying activities demanded by Indonesia, while 34% say he shouldn’t; and that 38% support Australia’s bugging activities with 39% opposed. The poll is an automated phone poll conducted on Thursday evening, presumably from a sample of about 3000.
UPDATE 2: And now Generic Leftist relates on Twitter that Peter Lewis of Essential Research relates on The Drum that tomorrow’s Essential poll will have Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36%, but with two-party preferred steady at 53-47 to the Coalition.
ST
[Bolt ignores completely what Indonesia wants – irrelevant, apparently.
Who gives a crap what they want… when did Aussies become so gutless?]
Um. You have not been listening to Mission Control. That line is past its use-by date: Bishop used it. Morrison used it. Abbott used it. It did not work. Now everything is different. Abbott, Bishop and Morrison care very, very much what Indonesia thinks.
[Have the Indonesians ever asked us what we want?]
Indonesia has gone to a great deal of trouble and effort to accommodate Australia with respect to asylum seekers. It has expended international political capital to ease Australia’s way in regional forums.
[Do their press constantly undermine their own government for the benefit of Australia?]
Classic ST red herring. If you want to enlighten yourself about the Indonesian press, read it yourself.
[Indonesia has sent hundreds of boats illegally into our waters…]
A classic ST lie. Indonesia did not send a single boat illegally anywhere.
[… yet the moronic left and the leftwing media claim WE are the ones violating THEIR sovereignty.]
Buying boats on sovereign soil without the approval of the government of the country is violating that country’s sovereingty. Even the Liberals insist on approving the sail of GrainCorp. Announcing that you will pay citizens of another country to spy on the citizens of another country violates that country’s sovereignty. To their undying credit, even people as thick, arrogant and rude as Abbott, Morrison and Bishop have twigged to this. But they are sending mixed singnals about these policies even now because of their fetish for crawling to Australian islamophones, xenophobes and Tea Party rightists.
[… What a load of complete horse dung.]
Your post is, indeed, a loat of complete horse dung.
@Sean/431
So where is Murdoch criticizing Abbott? No where to be seen, so much for non-biased news.
I fully support Scott Morrison and his current arrangement of policies as they are clearly working.
Aussies don’t care about spin, they care about results and this a results based government just like Howards was.
victoria
Morrison is lying. He has already changed his policy of being a stand-up bully to a policy of pretending that he cares, he really does. He has changed from his policy of trying to bully Indonesia to trying to pretend that Indonesians are nice, they really are.
Morrison is a liar and a hypocrite.
badcat
If the Government are doing that they have conceded that they are shafting the truckers of no consequence by letting the carbon price commonly called a tax be imposed on them.
ST
Yet again it was all news outlets that featured that cartoon. That includes the 2GB mob if only to denigrate the Indonesians.
@Sean/453
You have again ignored reality, Abbott & Co are the true Spinners like Howard.
Re ST 438
Indonesia has sent hundreds of boats illegally into our waters yet the moronic left and the leftwing media claim WE are the ones violating THEIR sovereignty. What a load of complete horse dung.
Unhinging………
ST:
[ I fully support Scott Morrison and his current arrangement of policies as they are clearly working.}
All down to Rudd’s PNG policy. The Coalition’s own AS policy have been abandoned – no tow backs, no buying of Indo fishing boats, etc. All under the fig leaf of “operational matters”.
No matter Jayme Diaz was quiet on the ‘Six Point Plan’. His silence was prescient.
[ I fully support Scott Morrison and his current arrangement of policies as they are clearly working.]
All down to Rudd’s PNG policy. The Coalition’s own AS policy have been abandoned – no tow backs, no buying of Indo fishing boats, etc. All under the fig leaf of “operational matters”.
No matter Jayme Diaz was quiet on the ‘Six Point Plan’. His silence was prescient.
[How about reposting a cartoon of Abbott masturbating and writing a big article about it on their front page because SMH thinks it’s “noos”?]
Given that the publication of that cartoon in an Indonesian paper should be taken as a pretty clear indicator of how some sections of the Indonesian media see Abbott, at a time when the relationship is more topical than it has been in years, its actually more a question of how could they NOT publish it.
Of course ST and his ilk are upset since it confronts their somewhat delusional world view that Abbott is wunderful and the Aust / RI relationship is jsut getting better and better. 🙂
BW, when you say “islamophones” don’t you mean “islamophobes”?
An islamophone would be someone who spoke the language of islam, if there were such a thing.
@KateEllisMP: “We have agreed to the government’s new school funding model” Christopher Pyne 29 August 2013
“@MayneReport: Interesting Paddy Manning piece in Crikey on BHP and carbon today. Should be noted that Jac Nasser has recently joined Rupert’s Fox board.”
BW, when you say “islamophones” don’t you mean “islamophobes”?
He could mean those with the God of the Christian faith on their speed-dial??
After all, didn’t Tones have a “Boat-Phone”? 🙂
So “no surprises, no excuses”. Amyone keeping a list of the excuses and surprises we’ve had from this incompetent government so far?
[So “no surprises, no excuses”. Amyone keeping a list of the excuses and surprises we’ve had from this incompetent government so far?]
Keeping a list of what they have done right would take a lot less time.
The Labor policy on boat arrivals does seem to be working Sean.
[I fully support Scott Morrison and his current arrangement of policies as they are clearly working.]
If Morrison was doing ok he would provide the information as labor did, that we have the pretend military operation, secrecy that is totally unnecessary indicates it is a disaster.
Stop the Boats was a stupid plan, hide the boats is even more stupid.
@ABCNews24: Should the GST net be widened to improve the budget bottom line? We speak with @unimelb’s Prof Neville Norman next http://t.co/uCb4PpCldC
@AuSenate: Proposed sitting and estimates dates for 2014 http://t.co/A9VkBqScew subject to agreement by the Senate (via @AboutTheHouse)
Just come up from the beach as another storm brewing. Unfortunately see my spelling plus other PBers of Djakarta 3 times didn’t stop RT coming back as he promised.
Also see robot sean is in final throes of blowing up as his comments become absurb now
so 🙁 both of them
The Farifax press have been running an active anti-Abbott campaign for the last few weeks.
Well maybe bias is in the eye of the beholder. I regard Fairfax as pretty balanced while the ABC is balanced but lazy and too ready to take the lead from News Corp. But it is incontrovertible that the Murdoch press have been running an anti-(whoever is Labor leader) campaign for the last few decades.
[The Labor policy on boat arrivals does seem to be working Sean.]
Lol you had 6 years gary. Let me repeat 6 years to stop the flow of boats yet failed. Do not try and claim victory now.
@Geoff/473
You had 10+ years, considering it was Howard that Implemented.
Stop complaining about what Labor did, but what Coalition Party did not do.
If bad cat’s article link is correct Abbott is going wait for midwinter to convene the HOR he will look very stupid at best as the Senate sits in early February.
Lol zoidlord I am not complaining. I laughing and the claim that of victory for labor for something the coalition have acheived.
Abbott prefers to give tax cuts to mining magnates and polluters while hiking tax (GST + GST-by-stealth PPL) on low/middle income earners and making the elderly work longer.
don
[BW, when you say “islamophones” don’t you mean “islamophobes”?]
yep. slip of the tongue.
Boerwar
Do you think the Indonesians have noticed that Morrison is a liar and a hypocrite? 😀
Explain exactly which bit of policy that the LNP have “implemented” that is impacting on boat arrivals… boat buy back? paying for information? towing … I mean turning boats back?
victoria
They could hardly miss it.
Rex Douglas
Of course Abbott needs to keep the Reinharts and Murdochs accustomed to their billions
@Geoff/476
You are complaining.
Can you tell me what Policy also that Coalition Implemented?
So far they implemented alot of Labor things (especially related to TAX).
Geooff
Operation Secret Boats has worked brilliantly. It has hidden the boats and disrupted relations with Indonesia.
How you can say the boats have stopped when they are hidden is laughable.
However keep the talking points up the Neilsen shows how well thats going.
Anyone else get the feeling we’re being softened up for a GST hike/broadening.
Why not tax the miners more.
It is the whole package Jackol. Labor were always looking for that silver bullet but were never serious in their efforts.
The current Policy is all options are on the table to stop people from getting on boats and it is working.
guytaur
I would expect the indonesian govt requiring Abbott to publicly confirm that buy the boats policy is dead buried and cremated
“@G_Parker: Julie Bishop has had “regular” talks with Marty Natalegawa — but she won’t discuss Australian intelligence. http://t.co/O8oZqiGRoz”
She has to find it first.
mikehilliard
If the coalition did attempt to broaden the GST, that would be a bigger loss of trust than the bullshit of the carbon tax. They will be out of power for years
[You are complaining.]
haha your world must be so terrible where laughing is complaining. Must be a very dull place.
Joe Hockey will ask the people at the 2016 election to vote for a GST hike on low/middle income earners to pay off his debt while giving tax breaks to mining magnates, polluters and corporate backers of the LNP.
Rex@491
I think you’re on the money there.
@Geoff/490
So your attacking someone who is on a Pension, and you say crap like that?
What a new low.
“must be so terrible”
Geoff –
Right, so there should be a bunch of things that they have done that you should be able to list to us, right?
“on the table”, but not actually implemented.
There is not one thing that the LNP have added to the PNG solution that they said they would do, beyond the stupid secrecy, and you obviously know it.
[must be so terrible where laughing is complaining]
Is it? If it is it would be a terrible place. Pension or not.
Geoff
The polls the polls they toll not for thee.
The polls the polls they toll for your hero Tony Abbott
Jackol what is not on the table that People smugglers can exploit?
Everything is on the table. That includes turning back boats and buying boats. They may never be used but they are there to be used.
The Jakarta Post has a new article up, outlining even more sanctions if SBY is not satisfied by Tonny abbott’s letter. Worth reading the whole article as it goes into some depth on “cleaning out” surveillance equipment provided as aid.
[The Indonesian government can remove Australian diplomats from the country should the letter sent by Prime Minister Tony Abbott in response to President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s request for clarity regarding the wiretapping issue fail to address the president’s concerns, an expert says.
Abbott on Saturday said he has written a letter to Yudhoyono over the spying row that has seen diplomatic ties between the two countries worsen over the past week.
Writing to Abbott after the revelations, Yudhoyono was reported to have demanded a clear explanation on the subject as well as an official apology for the people of Indonesia.
“The President will of course have to study this letter before taking his next steps. It is possible Australian diplomats could be expelled from the country,” said Hikmahanto an international law expert from the University of Indonesia
According to him, the president and his staff will need to thoroughly consider if the response is satisfactory to the Indonesian public.
“It’s not just a situation where the president thinks the reply is sufficient if the public thinks otherwise. Public opinion needs to be taken into consideration,” he said, noting the public resentment shown in recent days toward the Australian government.
]
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/oz-diplomats-may-face-removal/
Their entire first term agenda is to prepare the case for a GST hike while lowering tax for their financial backers.
[The polls the polls they toll not for thee.
The polls the polls they toll for your hero Tony Abbott]
Haha got your tail held high today Guytaur? Lets wait a week and see if your tune changes shall we?
I am suprised your not joining the others on here and asking for an election now based on one poll haha.