BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition

Meet the new BludgerTrack, same as the old BludgerTrack. Also featured: a quick squizz at the Australian Electoral Commission’s petition calling for the High Court to declare void the Western Australian Senate election result.

The BludgerTrack aggregate is updated this week with Essential Research and Morgan, plus Galaxy with respect to the Queensland result (see full results on the sidebar). None of these results has made a noticeable difference, with two-party preferred and the seat projection entirely unchanged on last week. The one exception is that the Palmer United Party is now being granted a smaller share of the “others” vote, which is down to a relatively weak result in the Morgan poll. Since Morgan and ReachTEL are the only pollsters specifically publishing results for the PUP, the aggregate is highly sensitive to individual results on this measure.

Another point worth raising is that Morgan seem to have dropped the online element from their “multi-mode” polling, which leaves the face-to-face and SMS components and results in sample sizes of about 2000 rather than 3000. Kevin Bonham is excluding Morgan from his poll aggregate on the grounds that the change might be causing the series to lean more to Labor than it used to, given the long-evident Labor bias on the face-to-face only polling which Morgan used to run. Nonetheless, I am continuing to use bias adjustments for Morgan based on the earlier multi-mode series, which might be introducing a slight pro-Labor bias to the model. This will be accounted for when enough poll results are available to meaningfully determine the series’ deviation from the other pollsters.

There should be a bit more polling activity to take care of with next week’s update, with the fortnightly Newspoll due on Sunday or Monday evening and, I believe, a ReachTEL national poll to be conducted for the Seven Network this coming Friday (UPDATE: See bottom of post).

In other news, two developments in the Western Australian Senate election saga: the Australian Electoral Commission has filed a petition with the High Court calling on it to have the result declared void, which has helpfully been put online by technology issues website Delimiter, and officials from the AEC have appeared before Senate estimates to face the music on this and other matters. The key point in the petition is the Electoral Act’s requirement that once a recount is directed by the relevant authority, it must proceed through “a re-count of the ballot papers”. The AEC contends that in the known absence of 1370 ballot papers that this cannot be said to have occurred, and that the matter cannot be remedied by instating non-recounted results from the affected polling booths. The error further clears the statutory hurdle of having been likely to have affected the result, or at least that such a consequence cannot be excluded.

UPDATE: Channel Seven reports a ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted overnight found 53% saying the Prime Minister should deliver the explanation for spying activities demanded by Indonesia, while 34% say he shouldn’t; and 38% support Australia’s bugging activities with 39% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,846 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition”

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  1. Mr Abbott has a long history of opening his mouth and letting the wind blow his tongue around. You can get away with that in certain domestic circles, where some people give you brownie points for not “bowing to political correctness”. But it’s completely disastrous when you are a Prime Minister managing international relations. I’m old enough to remember how John Gorton’s indiscretions profoundly undercut his authority as PM, most of all by driving a perception which grew throughout his tenure that he basically wasn’t up to the job.

  2. “@Lateline: On Lateline’s political forum tonight Kelly O’Dwyer and Graham Perrett discuss the GG’s speech and the Indonesian standoff. #lateline”

  3. Are we expecting Abbott to tell us when he has responded to the letter? It was meant to be a swift response, if it hasn’t gone back yet then I don’t think it is all that swift.

  4. Rossmore

    Posted Friday, November 22, 2013 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

    Abbott is close to the moment when Jo Public conclude he is out of his depth as PM.
    ===============================================

    Some of us made that observation 3 years ago.

  5. Labor must come out and say what they would do if they were in government.

    They should show that they are competent and can lead especially in international relations.

    Stop giving monkey a foot massage!

  6. Rossmore

    Keep the faith. I have never seen the media so biased in any election in history. I think enough voters are going to see the used car salesman sold them a lemon. No NRMA to check the car over.

  7. “@bairdjulia: Quentin Bryce is the first serving Governor General to support a republic and same sex marriage. This is the nation she asks us to imagine.”

  8. Rossmore

    Posted Friday, November 22, 2013 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    AA I always put my faith in the good sense of the Australian public, but that faith was shattered at the election….
    =====================================================

    I forgive them. They were deceived by the media propaganda.

    I do not forgive the media. Can I hope they find some ethics and a moral compass soon.

  9. I don’t mind you Sean, you cop heaps but still keep fronting up day after day contributing and whilst I may not agree with every thing you say, you add colour and diversity to this site.

    Would always chuckle at your daily greeting of good morning terra nullius residents a few months ago, thought it quite clever given ALP’s predicament.

    But Textor is a Lib.

  10. 9zoidlord
    Posted Friday, November 22, 2013 at 10:17 pm | PERMALINK
    @taylormade/1724

    Some times he just goes too far.]

    About 99% of the time

  11. Re: the “Textor is not a Lib” thing – the commenter in question frequently is repeating Boltisms or other official Lib party lines, so it makes me think the Libs were seriously trying to run this at some point, which to my mind shows how desperate and how stupid they are.

    Given Textor himself had the gall to say his tweets were about “nobody”, after basically denying he had made the tweets in the first place until he just couldn’t lie any more… perhaps he was the one with that brainwave.

  12. Would have been rather funny all those years ago if bull-in-a-china-shop Abbott had to jump in the boxing ring opposite Ali.
    That’s kind of what is happening to him now, in the ring against SBY.

  13. It’s possible to subscribe and post material on the Jakarta Post comments site

    One cam help to keep the fires burning under Abbott and Co with some well, chosen comments
    have a go !!

    btw one poster(Sean ??) says that the whole affair was planned by Aussies leftists to embarrase our PM what a hoot !

  14. AA I am not ready to forgive them … All nations need to to collectively own their democratic decisions. The election of Abbott was a sad day for Australia and reflects poor judgement by its people and the enormous power of the Murdoch empire

  15. Most of the time he doesn’t go far enough. He has never stuck his nose out except for Boats, Carbon and their misbegotten Indirect No Action Plan.

  16. BW –

    The GG should not, IMHO, be making speeches about Austalia becoming a republic.

    I can’t help but feel this was Quentin Bryce’s two fingers at Abbott and Co on the way out – something like “well you made me read that shit out in parliament, how do you like what I actually think?”

    Perhaps it was indecorous, but given Bryce’s record I think she’s entitled to let the mask slip for a moment.

  17. Given that Quenty was made to read that awful speech, I reckon she is entitled to give a subtle digit to Tony Abbott and his crew.

    I’m waiting for David Flint to have a word or two.

  18. “you add colour and diversity to this site.”

    I am fine with people of ‘conservative’ or whatever positions posting here, but ST is a just a brainless partisan hack with absolutely nothing of substance or nuance to contribute. I’d call him a reactionary, but that is attributing far too much credit. Maybe if he detached his drip feed of Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones he might have something of merit to his contributions. Alas, I am not holding my breath.

  19. William __
    ________
    May I congratulate you on your witty,
    wise, subtle and very restrained comments on Sean T

    He has certainly acheived a new personal low in stupidity on this site with his commnents on Lib stragetist Textor….in fact they make a good pair !!!!!

  20. {William Bowe
    Posted Friday, November 22, 2013 at 10:22 pm | PERMALINK
    Good comment, Taylormade. Makes me feel guilty that I piled on quite so many intensifiers before “fucking idiot”.}

    Don’t feel guilty he was testing you to see how far he could go, was going completely over the top last few days

  21. Sean has not yet reached the heights of our Townsville tinnie commander.

    There is a certain lack of that flair of fuckwittedness.

  22. deblonay@1740

    William __
    ________
    May I congratulate you on your witty,
    wise, subtle and very restrained comments on Sean T

    He has certainly acheived a new personal low in stupidity on this site with his commnents on Lib stragetist Textor….in fact they make a good pair !!!!!

    Are we sure they are not one and the same? 👿

  23. So Abbott has aid that his response to SBY will be fast and swift.

    When SBY said that he would be writing to Abbott, he did so within 24 hours.

    At what point will SBY be further offended waiting for Abbott to respond?

  24. [1717
    Centre

    Labor must come out and say what they would do if they were in government.

    They should show that they are competent and can lead especially in international relations.]

    Labor’s record on security matters is not in question. They managed to maintain excellent relations with all our overseas partners, from Indonesia to the US, from China to India, and all points in between. What is required is for the LNP to show they can repair damaged relations with Djakarta, though this will inevitably take time and a change in both style and substance on the part of the Government. It may yet require a change of Government for relations to eventually return to normal, though this really depends on events Djakarta at least as much as actions in Canberra.

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