BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition

Meet the new BludgerTrack, same as the old BludgerTrack. Also featured: a quick squizz at the Australian Electoral Commission’s petition calling for the High Court to declare void the Western Australian Senate election result.

The BludgerTrack aggregate is updated this week with Essential Research and Morgan, plus Galaxy with respect to the Queensland result (see full results on the sidebar). None of these results has made a noticeable difference, with two-party preferred and the seat projection entirely unchanged on last week. The one exception is that the Palmer United Party is now being granted a smaller share of the “others” vote, which is down to a relatively weak result in the Morgan poll. Since Morgan and ReachTEL are the only pollsters specifically publishing results for the PUP, the aggregate is highly sensitive to individual results on this measure.

Another point worth raising is that Morgan seem to have dropped the online element from their “multi-mode” polling, which leaves the face-to-face and SMS components and results in sample sizes of about 2000 rather than 3000. Kevin Bonham is excluding Morgan from his poll aggregate on the grounds that the change might be causing the series to lean more to Labor than it used to, given the long-evident Labor bias on the face-to-face only polling which Morgan used to run. Nonetheless, I am continuing to use bias adjustments for Morgan based on the earlier multi-mode series, which might be introducing a slight pro-Labor bias to the model. This will be accounted for when enough poll results are available to meaningfully determine the series’ deviation from the other pollsters.

There should be a bit more polling activity to take care of with next week’s update, with the fortnightly Newspoll due on Sunday or Monday evening and, I believe, a ReachTEL national poll to be conducted for the Seven Network this coming Friday (UPDATE: See bottom of post).

In other news, two developments in the Western Australian Senate election saga: the Australian Electoral Commission has filed a petition with the High Court calling on it to have the result declared void, which has helpfully been put online by technology issues website Delimiter, and officials from the AEC have appeared before Senate estimates to face the music on this and other matters. The key point in the petition is the Electoral Act’s requirement that once a recount is directed by the relevant authority, it must proceed through “a re-count of the ballot papers”. The AEC contends that in the known absence of 1370 ballot papers that this cannot be said to have occurred, and that the matter cannot be remedied by instating non-recounted results from the affected polling booths. The error further clears the statutory hurdle of having been likely to have affected the result, or at least that such a consequence cannot be excluded.

UPDATE: Channel Seven reports a ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted overnight found 53% saying the Prime Minister should deliver the explanation for spying activities demanded by Indonesia, while 34% say he shouldn’t; and 38% support Australia’s bugging activities with 39% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,846 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition”

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  1. Boer, your comments on the Anglo centric world view of the coalition are spot on and well expressed.

    I wonder what instructions Julie Bishop is getting from Washington?.

    Surely somebody has to act to get rid of this rabble?

  2. The chairman of News Corp and 21st Century Fox and his wife of 14 years, Wendi Deng Murdoch, shook hands and briefly hugged after a brief proceeding in a Manhattan court. The terms of the agreement weren’t disclosed in court. The divorce is said to have cost Murdoch $1.7 billion, including a cool $100 million in cash. Deng Murdoch is expected to keep the couple’s home in Beijing and their Fifth Avenue apartment in Manhattan, purchased in 2004 for a then-record $US44 million.
    =================================================

    Rupert also got custody of the ‘love’ child Abbott

  3. [Domestic consistency seems to be the guiding impulse of these first forays by the Abbott government into international relations – a course that carries both potential benefit and risk.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-21/green-where-self-interest-meets-self-effacement/5105934

    Jonathan Green also quotes Menzies House 🙁
    “Righto, Marty…then I say Australia should turn off your $541 million foreign aid tap, advise all of our citizens not to holiday in that drug infested dump called Bali and cancel your (Indonesia’s) purchase of a million hectares of Australian grazing land.
    Hey Marty, if your country wasn’t a hot bed for major terrorist incidents & known terror groups we wouldn’t have to spy on you.
    Past and present Prime Minister’s [sic] are responsible for the safety of Australians and not the hurt feelings of Indonesian apparatchiks.”

    Arrogance

  4. [Hey Marty, if your country wasn’t a hot bed for major terrorist incidents & known terror groups we wouldn’t have to spy on you.]

    This is what Textor was implying by tweeting photos of the Bali bombers the other day.

    Very helpful. Not.

  5. [I wonder what instructions Julie Bishop is getting from Washington?]

    JBish and John Kerry most likely had a long conversation about hair styling.

  6. [“Righto, Marty…then I say Australia should turn off your $541 million foreign aid tap]

    ‘Take it. We note that this will drive hundreds of thousands of young Indonesians into the arms of the madrassahs where they will be radicalized. Enjoy.’

    [‘, advise all of our citizens not to holiday in that drug infested dump called Bali]

    ‘Excellent. A lot of them behave like your footie teams on mad Monday.’

    [ and cancel your (Indonesia’s) purchase of a million hectares of Australian grazing land.]

    ‘Oh. We thought you were open for business. Ah well, we will go elsewhere. For the land and for your cattle.’

    [Hey Marty, if your country wasn’t a hot bed for major terrorist incidents & known terror groups we wouldn’t have to spy on you.]

    ‘We too are concerned about radical groups like JI and have invested significant effort to nullify the, with your assistance which we have appreciated. You would realize, of course, that your various attempts at moral and financial blackmail, along with the generally arroagant and bully approach that this implies, generates the sort of anger and hatred that helps JI recruitment. Is that what you really want?

    [Past and present Prime Minister’s [sic] are responsible for the safety of Australians and not the hurt feelings of Indonesian apparatchiks.”]

    ‘We find this sort of attitude mystifying. Are you concerned about developing friendly relations or are you seeking to insult Indonesians and Indonesia? Why is the safety of Australia and developing friendly relations with Indonesians mutually exclusive?

  7. zoomster@77

    victoria

    I really must thank everyone for their words of encouragement, but it’s early days yet.

    I know of several other people who are nominating, and given that I’ve been out of action for a couple of years, I probably don’t have the profile across regional Victoria that I had then.

    But if I don’t put my hat in the ring, I have no chance at all, so let’s suck it and see! (Mixing my metaphors so fran has a chance to chastise me later…)

    G’day zoomster.

    I read of your tilt at pre-selection last night but have held off commenting until you were here to read my comment.

    IIRC, there are 5 seats in each region and in your region 2 are winnable by the ALP. So you are after one of the top 2 positions on the ticket. Please correct if necessary.

    Best wishes in your bid. I will be watching with interest.

    There seem to be quite a few ALP retirements coming up so maybe that will help to create an opening for you.

  8. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏@Thefinnigans 6m
    Did I hear @chriskkenny was complaining that hatred of Abbott is not good, you mean like this? pic.twitter.com/Dj1SCxVhOl

    :large

  9. Example of commentary on twitter re Labor

    [The ALP need to stop supporting Abbott in his race to the bottom with diplomacy. You will be tainted by his mistakes. #auspol]

  10. Victoria@115

    I think that Bill Shorten has handled this matter very well and Labor Party has displayed that it is more interest in the welfare of Australia rather than scoring any political points. The same cannot be said of the other mob.

  11. confessions

    Agreed, Although it is incumbent on Labor to asertain from the fibs what their boat policy is.

    Is buy boats, turn boats and tow boats still coalition policy. That needs to be established asap.

    That will go a long way to give signals to the indonesian govt as to where the coalition stand with their country.

    Abbott needs to as he has been sprouting ad nauseaum, carefully, steadily and methodically tell us and the Indonesian govt if their current boat policy still stands

  12. confessions@78


    Former Indonesian vice president:

    Kalla said the Indonesian government should take tougher action in protest at the alleged snooping activities, especially as the Australian government had refused to apologize for its actions. According to Kalla, a statement of apology from the Australian government was crucial to maintain bilateral relations.

    “The one and the only way out of this current situation is that Australia agrees to apologize for what it has done,” he said.


    http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/11/20/recalling-ambassador-minor-jk-says.html

    The easy way out for abbott, that he must be very tempted to use –

    “I apologise for the previous Government’s spying on Indonesia and its President and wife.

    My Government will ensure such activities do not re-occur”.

    Only a matter of time….

  13. The media just can’t help themselves can they?
    Knee jerk conditioned response Pavlovian habitual twitch.
    It [whatever ‘it’ is] can’t be the fault of the COALition or Tony or Julie or Mark et al. Its gotta be someone else’s fault.
    Renegade media [ABC or Guardian], our disobedient northern neighbours, Bill Shorten.
    Anybody – just not Tony.

  14. [108
    CTar1

    I wonder what instructions Julie Bishop is getting from Washington?

    JBish and John Kerry most likely had a long conversation about hair styling.]

    They might also compare notes on the application of eye liner and mascara, Kerry always being well turned out in those respects. Nightly skincare? I’m sure it’s on the list.

  15. So downer lays all the blame for this at the feet of Snowden. Extraordinary….

    [“I can’t predict how many months this will take, but [I’m] confident the relationship will get back on track because national interest, both on Indonesia’s side and on our side, demands that it should,” he said.

    “Our good friendship and our good relationship and the interests we share shouldn’t be held hostage by the abominable behaviour of Edward Snowden.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-20/alexander-downer-on-indonesia-spying/5106674

  16. And what a load of fetid dingo’s kidneys Kenny’s article is.

    [To his credit, Abbott had resisted a course urged by some to blame a previous Labor government for a 2009 operation. He had already strained a related convention in his first days in the job when he tagged Labor for the debilitating live cattle ban in 2011. He’d got away with it that time causing only a few raised eyebrows. But that was trade and it was a one-off.]

    OK – so Abbott’s been shouting from the housetops that he’s had to spend all his time in Indonesia apologising for the Labor government, but that’s all right, because it was a ‘one off’. (Mind you, that suggests Kenny can’t count very well).

    [Now Abbott was confronted with a problem set firmly in the national security space, where a bipartisan no-confirm-or-deny policy prevails and where the political establishment speaks with one unified voice.]

    Ah, so that’s why he dragged Mesma over the coals in Opposition when she smirkingly confirmed we were forging documents. (Oh, what? He didn’t? You jest, surely?)

    [Shorten was playing the angles on national security.]

    What goes around, comes around. If you undermine the government’s position on international issues when you’re in Opposition, you can’t expect the new Opposition to play nicely when the tables are turned.

    [Abbott’s jaw tightened…]

    Such as manly thing to happen. I note that, while Shorten was speaking, Kenny’s eyes were fixed lovingly on the PM.

    [Australia, he ventured, should consider Barack Obama’s response to a similar case involving the phone of German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

    Obama had personally assured a furious Merkel that her phone would not be tapped (in future) and that a review of such intelligence gathering operations was under way.]

    How dare he! How dare Shorten suggest that we follow the example of the leader of the Free World in these matters!!

    And, you know, Germany’s different. Because.

    [That Shorten’s office knew it was walking a fine line was evident as it went into damage limitation mode. ]

    It did? How? When? I missed that one.

    Surely if Kenny’s making a contention like that one, he should back it up with examples, rather than just assuming that it’s a given.

    [Unless Shorten was prepared to proffer a completely different approach on principle, and to then stand by it, his response should have been to fall in behind the government.]

    This is just confusing. Shorten proffers a completely different approach on principle and is standing by it, so by Kenny’s logic there’s no problem.

    [With the danger of more revelations to come from Edward Snowden, Shorten’s presumption must be that the PM was acting on the best assessment of risk by security and diplomatic officials.]

    Well, normally that would be a fair assumption. But our PM has shown himself scornful of ‘experts’ and dismissive of their advice, so it’s far from a given.

    Indeed, if he had listened to the best assessments of risk from security and diplomatic officials, I doubt we’d be in this pickle.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/abbott-and-shorten-must-unite-on-indonesia-20131120-2xvpn.html#ixzz2lEO6PJc0

  17. In fact I’m wondering whether Mesma is happy about being kept away from the main game.

    If I was her I’d be insulted, if I was intelligent enough to know when I’ve been insulted, that is.

  18. [Carbon price achieves emissions well ahead of target http://www.smh.com.au/environment/carbon-price-achieves-emissions-well-ahead-of-target-20131120-2xvup.html

    for cost of a weekly cup of coffee at the local café or a weekly middy of beer.]

    Yes, it works – unlike all independent projections on ‘direct action’ – and it costs the taxpayer far less.

    unfortunately the idiots are at the wheel, an they choose expensive and ineffective as the way to go.

  19. [“We’re not asking for Indonesia’s permission, we’re asking for their understanding.

    Now how did she expect the Indonesians to respond?]

    By rolling over to have their tummy scratched of course.

    How could they not? Look at how well she dresses?? 🙂

  20. Has Australia received any actionable intelligence from Kristiani Herawati’s mobile phone conversations with her children?

    I’m sure the ASD whiz kids love the cryptographic thrill of the chase but lose interest (and pop a packet of burger rings) when their cursors start blinking over ‘why do you still talk with your mouth full? You’re not a boy anymore’, and ‘remember it’s a 23kg limit. Leave your car magazines at home’.

  21. “@senatormilne: Abbott Govt set to push repeal of #climate laws through HofR today. Disgrace here and in Warsaw where Aust undermining global negotiations.”

  22. [Bishop has changed her vocabulary subtly. The spying stuff is now ‘allegations about spying’.]

    Which will go down like a fwarking lead balloon. Its a re-iteration of the whole “it would be ok if you could just understand” meme, that was so insulting to them in the first place.

    They keep using language that actually seems calculated to inflame this, when they should be hosing it down.

    FFS, the basic reality here is that Australia was caught out spying on Indonesia, not the other way around.

  23. Zoomster @ 130: Who is Mark Kenny anyway? I can’t recall seeing his name until fairly recently. These days, being a political journalist probably means that you can write and read press releases, pick up gossip, talk with politicians and so on. That skill set in no way qualifies you per se to be a commentator on international affairs. He’s no Walter Lippmann.

  24. Zoomster@130

    I laughed & cringed at the same time reading Kenny’s comment on Abbott’s jaw tightening. For Kenny it’s all about image not substance.

  25. [I think that Bill Shorten has handled this matter very well and Labor Party has displayed that it is more interest in the welfare of Australia rather than scoring any political points. The same cannot be said of the other mob.]

    The same can not be said for most of the posters here.

  26. This is very interesting —

    [If the carbon price is not repealed by May, the government will need to nominate a cap on emissions for companies covered by scheme, which would come into effect from July 2015 when the tax shifts to an emissions trading scheme.

    The cap limits the amount of emissions that can collectively come from covered companies – decreasing each year – and requires them to buy offsets if they want to emit more.

    But if the proposed caps are rejected by Parliament, then under the carbon laws, default emissions limits for each year to 2020 come into effect. In 2015-16 they would cut emissions 38 million tonnes, and then 12 million tonnes each year until 2020, based on the institute’s analysis]

    Glad to see some analysis about what will happen if the carbon pricing scheme is not repealed by July next year (given that it is unlikely to be, it’s an important discussion to be having)

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/carbon-price-achieves-emissions-well-ahead-of-target-20131120-2xvup.html#ixzz2lETCXNLQ

  27. [129
    victoria

    So downer lays all the blame for this at the feet of Snowden. Extraordinary….]

    It’s easy to blame Snowden but completely beside the point. This is all about Abbott. He has been telling us all that the relationship with Indonesia is “in many ways the most important one we have.” While he says this in order to make himself look good, at the same time he has bungled it. It is Abbott’s language over the last four years that has landed him – and Australia – in the current no-win position. Abbott’s verbal aggression, cynicism, self-aggrandizement and condescension have fouled up our “most important” bi-lateral relationship. Abbott and his misfits – Bishop, Johnston and Morrison – are to blame for this situation and all the damage that will flow from it.

    Years of harmonious cooperation with Djakarta have been replaced with mistrust, public hostility and a trade in insults. This is the Abbott dividend.

  28. Is is just me or can others see a connection between Julie Bishop and Melissa Bachman (the gun-toting heroine who protects white America from African lions and Canadian moose)?

    Melissa has gone to ground too…

  29. [ Kenny’s comment on Abbott’s jaw tightening.]

    Kenny’s article was crap.

    [Unless Shorten was prepared to proffer a completely different approach on principle, and to then stand by it, his response should have been to fall in behind the government.]

    Shorten has offered support, but not slavish and subservient imitation. For Kenny to expect that, particularly when the Govt is handling things so poorly, really earns him hack status.

  30. Bolt picks a fight with just about every minority group by disparaging their lobbyists.

    [A gathering of the enemies of free speech – each claiming to speak for more people, ethnically or religiously segregated, than they in fact represent: ]

  31. Sorry, got my dates mixed — the new Senate sits in July 2014, so yes, they can repeal carbon pricing before July 2015.

    But it will be interesting horse trading, given that they have the government over a barrel on this one.

  32. briefly

    Of course this is all about Abbott and his flunkies. As long as Operation sovereign borders continues in the current vein, the relationship will not be repaired

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