Galaxy: 57-43 to LNP in Queensland

A Galaxy state poll for Queensland find Campbell Newman maintaining its commanding lead, although his personal rating is off a little from three months ago.

The Courier-Mail reports a Galaxy poll conducted November 13-14 from 800 respondents finds Queensland’s Liberal National Party government leading Labor 57-43 on two-party preferred, unchanged on the last such poll in early August. The primary votes are 45% for the LNP (down two), 33% for Labor (down one) and 8% for the Greens (up one), with Katter’s Australian Party well off its highs of earlier in the year at 5% (down one). The Palmer United Party isn’t accounted for, but “others” is up three to 9%. Campbell Newman’s lead over Annastacia Palaszczuk as preferred premier is down substantially, from 54-31 to 46-33, which seems mostly to do with improved sentiment for Palaszczuk, who is up three on approval to 37% and down six on disapproval to 30%. Newman’s own personal ratings are little changed, with approval down one to 43% and disapproval steady on 49%. The poll also finds 56% backing the government’s “decision to target bikies” with “more than one in three opposed”, but 41% rate the measures “too tough” against 44% who think them appropriate. If Galaxy’s usual practice is any guide, results for federal voting intention in Queensland should follow tomorrow.

Now for some charts plotting the Newman government’s progress over the current term. The first tracks primary voting intention, two-party preferred being less than entirely illuminating given optional preferential voting and a high “others” vote of variable composition (shown in grey). Among the things this chart demonstrates is that a glut of Queensland state polling dried up as pollsters were given a federal election to contend with, but it doesn’t appear that the situation has fundamentally changed over that time.

There are also enough data points now to put together a useful chart of preferred premier, which points to a picture of steady and ongoing improvement for Annastacia Palasczcuk.

Then there’s the following brought to us by Possum Comitatus, which I take to be the fruit of polling conducted privately for Together Queensland by ReachTEL. It suggests that Campbell Newman is unlikely to be re-elected should he stand again in Ashgrove, the seat he successfully gate-crashed as part of the scheme at the March 2012 state election which brought him to parliament and the premiership in one fell swoop. The “demographic projection model” shows how Ashgrove should theoretically be tracking according to modelling based on poll results from throughout Queensland, which Possum interprets as Campbell Newman personally dragging his own vote down by about 4%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

11 comments on “Galaxy: 57-43 to LNP in Queensland”

  1. Presumably he’ll wait to see how the polls are looking closer to the election. It’s not like there’s a dearth of reasonably safe seats to parachute him to if need be, unless the polls really plunge.

    IMO, Newman’s government has been pretty terrible on most fronts so far, but if nothing else they’ve managed to present a much more media savvy and generally disciplined image than Abbott’s government has since Sep 7 (and especially compared to the embarrassing mob that the Queensland LNP were in opposition).

  2. Well, from this it appears that the extra powers granted to police aren’t as popular as claimed. In any other state I would have thought the level of overreach by Newman would be begging the public to turf him and his Government. They’re quickly reaching peak stupid with the bikie laws, intimidating the judiciary and now “out of control parties” and behaving like a spoilt child when challenged. Its becoming absurd and dangerous the power they’re granting police without due reason for doing so.

  3. I was questioned in that poll. I see no comments from the CM concerning similar questions about voting intentions at the Federal level, satisfaction and dissatisfaction with the Federal leaders, questions on “boat people” or whether I would spend more, less or the same at Christmas.

    Strange things pollsters. Why waste my time if they are not going to use the data collected? I was waiting with keen anticipation about the Christmas spending. LOL.

  4. Greens Primary: 8 (+1)

    Newman: Approve 43 (-1) Disapprove 49 (0)
    Palaszczuk ALP: Approve 37 (+3) Disapprove 30 (-6)

    Preferred Premier: Newman LNP 46 (-8) Palaszczuk ALP 33 (+2)

    New laws for outlaw motorcycle gangs: Support 56 Oppose 37

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *