Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

The Abbott government’s first Newspoll broke ranks with other pollsters in recording a honeymoon bounce for the Coalition, but the second is back in the territory of the election result. Personal ratings also provide some mild encouragement for Bill Shorten.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the Abbott government’s second Newspoll result has the Coalition leading Labor 53-47, down from 56-44 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down two points on the primary vote to 45%, with Labor up one to 32% and the Greens up two to 12%. Newspoll thereby returns to the pack after its previous result, which was unique out of the 15 polls published since the election in showing a significant rise in support for the Coalition. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are still much better than any he enjoyed as Opposition Leader, although he is down two on approval to 45% and up four on disapproval to 38%. Bill Shorten has made a handy five-point gain on approval to 37%, with disapproval steady at 24%. Preferred prime minister changes only slightly, Abbott’s lead of 47-28 a fortnight ago narrowing to 46-30.

Stay tuned for the weekly Essential Research, which should be out later today.

UPDATE: Essential Research remains at 53-47, with both Coalition and Labor down a point on the primary vote, to 44% and 35% respectively, and the Greens up one to 9%. Monthly personal ratings find Tony Abbott’s disapproval on the upswing after a post-election improvement, up five points to 40%, while his approval is down one to 45% off his personal best result of a month ago. Bill Shorten’s debut ratings are 31% approval and 27% disapproval, and he trails Abbott as preferred prime minister 42-27. The poll also throws in personal ratings for Joe Hockey as Treasurer, in what looks like it might become a regular series, and it shows him viewed very favourably with 45% approval and 28% disapproval.

Further questions find 48% approving Labor’s position of dumping the carbon tax if it is replaced with an emissions trading scheme versus 26% disapproving; strongly favourable response to dumping fringe benefit tax on cars, weakly favourable response to dumping the mining tax, super tax increase and cap on education expenses, and strongly negative responses to dumping subsidies for low super contributions; and 25% opposition to live sheep and cattle exports, 16% unqualified support, and 52% support for the qualification that the receiving country should guarantee humane treatment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,313 thoughts on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  2. Labor people attacking Labor people is tragic with so much at stake. Save the venom for the Tories.

    Thanks to leadership elections never will we see a repeat of Labor dumping a first term PM.

  3. Hunter S Thompson on Nxon… Sounds vaguely contemporary…

    Nixon’s spirit will be with us for the rest of our lives — whether you’re me or Bill Clinton or you or Kurt Cobain or Bishop Tutu or Keith Richards or Amy Fisher or Boris Yeltsin’s daughter or your fiancee’s 16-year-old beer-drunk brother with his braided goatee and his whole life like a thundercloud out in front of him. This is not a generational thing. You don’t even have to know who Richard Nixon was to be a victim of his ugly, Nazi spirit.

    He has poisoned our water forever. Nixon will be remembered as a classic case of a smart man shitting in his own nest. But he also shit in our nests, and that was the crime that history will burn on his memory like a brand. By disgracing and degrading the Presidency of the United States, by fleeing the White House like a diseased cur, Richard Nixon broke the heart of the American Dream.

  4. Yvo de Boer a very impressive speaker in an old fashioned kind of way that I guess is now out of fashion in politics or public life here, but I found assured, confident without being arrogant, well informed, reassuring.

    No bling, just sober articulacy.

  5. This may affect Australian Politics.

    “@wikileaks: In under 50 minutes we will release the most controversial chapter from the #TPP with negotiation positions for all 12 countries.”

  7. I don’t understand this wish for Swan and others to resign.

    Labor cannot afford to lost any more seats.

    Feeney:

    In my view this is the perfect time to shed the has-beens and underperformers.

    First term Labor opposition, new govt doing some history rewriting with assistance from the press gallery and media, Labor finding its straps again.

  8. bemused

    Stop attacking Labor people. Same with your antagonists. In your case you are wrong on PMJG utter disaster as you have previously said yourself.

  9. The CantDo Newman effect will need to be further factored in in any election in Queensland right now.

    The grub is on the nose – and getting on the nose of a lot of powerful people who were not so vocal a few months ago.

    LOL!!! Take your hand off it mate!!

    Lefties bleating loudly doesn’t make someone “on the nose” it just means the left is squealing like stuck pigs because they aren’t getting their way.

    If you want to see how “on the nose” Newman is.. check the polls

  10. Indeed. She would have won a handsome majority for Abbott leaving Labor with a rump of maybe 30 seats.

    Your evidence for this is?

  11. bemused

    Try this. PMJG was a great policy implementation Prime Minister.

    Just as those who argue against you should be saying Mr Rudd was a great popular Prime Minister.

    Labor has to own all the success of those years. Now the party has the chance to do this by letting go the hate.

  12. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@2003

    I am not ruling a line under anything. That is recent history, of which we now live the consequences of the actions of that white-anting Labor traitor. YOu cannot ‘rule a line under’ something when it is not finished, and finished it is not.

    But Puff, the treacherous Gillard left months ago. What are you still raving about?

  13. Julian Burnside
    Our PM had not been on 7.30 for months until tonight. Won’t be there again for a while. He was profoundly embarrassing tonight.

  15. The problem with working out whether the LNP will win Griffith is:

    1. Rudd being in Griffith was either a Asset or a Liability in his seat

    2. People don’t like politicians quitting on their first week and causing a bi-election

    3. Labor are Toxic in Queensland

    4. Whether the Carbon Tax will come into play

    5. It’s Queensland… anything could happen

    My guess would be Labor wins with a swing against it like what happened in Anna Blighs seat

  17. Antony Green ‏@AntonyGreenABC 53m
    First possible by-election date is 21 December. Reckon February looks more likely. #auspol

    Seems entirely plausible. Thanks Antony, on the ball as always.

  19. @guytaur/2202

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 2m

    Twitter in 2023: Someone mentions Rudd or Gillard – an army of leftish folks get their angry underpants on to replay eternal grievances

    Although I could extend that to the people of the right & other parties (like Sean & Co).

  20. Greensborough Growler@2039

    fess,

    While Rudd is the first to go, I expect there will be more “green bottles’ to fall before too much longer.

    Basically, some hard decisions have been made and will be made about a few MPs and Senators.

    Rudd’s passing is a huge signal that disloyalty and treachery will no longer be acceptable.

    Anti-Labor filth like you and confessions should take note. The victory of treachery may not last long.

  27. A good speech from Rudd, he did his job at the 2013 election getting a slightly better result in terms of seats than Keating got in 1996. Now both he and Gillard can retire to the ALP retirement home and the focus can finally move on to getting behind Shorten and Albanese and taking the attack to Abbott’s government. The Rudd-Gillard squabblings are now finally a matter for historians rather than political journalists!

  28. Looks like Morrison is making Search and Rescue Indonesia’s problem as I recommended the other day:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/asylum-seeker-boat-sinking-off-java-coast-20131113-2xgq6.html

    An asylum seeker vessel carrying 50 people, including at least five children, is in distress in the ocean south of Java at 11.44am local time near the district of Bayah.
    Indonesian search and rescue agency Basarnas said many of the passengers were still on board the ship at the time of reporting.
    Rescue authorities abandoned the search for the boat at about 5.30pm as night fell and amid heavy rain. They will resume in the morning.
    Spokesman Fery Krisna said 41 asylum seekers were still on the boat and 10 had made it to shore. There was as yet no news of any deaths. Those on shore were from Sudan, Mr Krisna said.
    Advertisement
    “The rain is very heavy, so they won’t go to the sea; will start looking for them tomorrow,” he said.
    Local fishermen said the boat was still afloat but had lost power and the ability to steer.
    Basarnas spokesman Hernanto said five children had been saved by local fishermen.
    Immigration Minister Scott Morrison said the Australian government was aware of an incident near Cilograng, Indonesia. However no Australian authorities were involved in the rescue.
    ‘‘We understand the incident occurred in close proximity to the Indonesian coast and Indonesian authorities are co-ordinating a search and rescue response,’’ Mr Morrison said on Wednesday evening.
    ‘‘We understand there are reportedly 50 people on board the vessel and reports indicate some people have entered the water and that local fishermen are and have been assisting.’’

  30. Did anyone notice Abbott’s slight dig at Howard?

    Mr Abbott also paid tribute to Mr Rudd’s apology to Indigenous Australians, calling it “something to crown an amazing public life”.

    “Much as I admire and appreciate and put on a huge pedestal his immediate predecessor (John Howard), in this respect at least, he had lacked the imagination to grasp that opportunity and the member for Griffith, Kevin, he had the decency to see that here was something that needed to be done,” he said.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-13/kevin-rudd-to-retire-from-politics/5090108

    The PM may not be getting quite as many kisses in his Christmas card from Johnnie this year!

  32. A good speech from Rudd, he did his job at the 2013 election getting a slightly better result in terms of seats than Keating got in 1996.

    Remember the last time K Rudd got all teary? That was the start of his undermining of a PM, for no reason other than his ego.

    There is zero evidence that he saved any bacon at all.

  34. If TPP stuff is leaked, the interesting bit will be about Australia’s position on investor-state dispute settlement provisions.

    Also, its effect on our PBS, and IP provisions.

    Its a worry with the new Senate numbers from next year, and a Govt with a proven, demonstrated incompetence in Foreign Relations.

  35. There is zero evidence as we do not have a parallel universe to have Julia Gillard to run to give us the comparison evidence needed.

    Yes we do, in fact we have an infinite number of parallel universes. We just can’t see any of them.

  36. Looks like Morrison is making Search and Rescue Indonesia’s problem as I recommended the other day

    Sean,

    You haven’t been paying attention to what is coming out of Jakarta, have you?

    The Indonesians have just extended the no-go zone for Australia.

    Remember SIEV X?

  40. @Sean/2228

    How is it Indonesia’s problem, if the boat is coming from Java? and if it’s heading towards Australia, then why are we not responsible for it, obviously our living conditions are better.

  42. How is it Indonesia’s problem, if the boat is coming from Java? and if it’s heading towards Australia, then why are we not responsible for it, obviously our living conditions are better.

    I notice Indonesian fisherman are having to do the rescuing for their corrupt/incompetent government.

    Wheres all the Indonesian search and rescue boats for Indonesia’s search and rescue zone?

  44. They are not questions from actual people: they are questions from Their ABC’s plants.

    Surely not all of them.

    And then Abbott would have to contest with Jones…..

  46. They are not questions from actual people: they are questions from Their ABC’s plants.

    The ABC have talking, politically aware plants??

    CSIRO plant breeding mob must have been busy? 🙂

  47. I notice Indonesian fisherman are having to do the rescuing for their corrupt/incompetent government.

    And what is the Australian ditto doing? I understand Morrison is investigating the use of torpedoes from MTBs “when it is safe to do so”.

  49. William re Bemused

    any chance of a reprieve for Bemused.who despite tonight’s tiny lapse of good taste was after all rather provoked by GG who once called him a “piece of excrement”..

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