GhostWhoVotes tweets that the Abbott government’s second Newspoll result has the Coalition leading Labor 53-47, down from 56-44 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down two points on the primary vote to 45%, with Labor up one to 32% and the Greens up two to 12%. Newspoll thereby returns to the pack after its previous result, which was unique out of the 15 polls published since the election in showing a significant rise in support for the Coalition. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are still much better than any he enjoyed as Opposition Leader, although he is down two on approval to 45% and up four on disapproval to 38%. Bill Shorten has made a handy five-point gain on approval to 37%, with disapproval steady at 24%. Preferred prime minister changes only slightly, Abbott’s lead of 47-28 a fortnight ago narrowing to 46-30.
Stay tuned for the weekly Essential Research, which should be out later today.
UPDATE: Essential Research remains at 53-47, with both Coalition and Labor down a point on the primary vote, to 44% and 35% respectively, and the Greens up one to 9%. Monthly personal ratings find Tony Abbott’s disapproval on the upswing after a post-election improvement, up five points to 40%, while his approval is down one to 45% off his personal best result of a month ago. Bill Shorten’s debut ratings are 31% approval and 27% disapproval, and he trails Abbott as preferred prime minister 42-27. The poll also throws in personal ratings for Joe Hockey as Treasurer, in what looks like it might become a regular series, and it shows him viewed very favourably with 45% approval and 28% disapproval.
Further questions find 48% approving Labor’s position of dumping the carbon tax if it is replaced with an emissions trading scheme versus 26% disapproving; strongly favourable response to dumping fringe benefit tax on cars, weakly favourable response to dumping the mining tax, super tax increase and cap on education expenses, and strongly negative responses to dumping subsidies for low super contributions; and 25% opposition to live sheep and cattle exports, 16% unqualified support, and 52% support for the qualification that the receiving country should guarantee humane treatment.
@Sean/2145
With both Abbott and Newman failing to reduce pricing for Electricity and other things, I fail to see your point there.
[The goodies that Abbott & Co will shovel Indonesia’s way will largely be hidden from Australians]
Hmm, Senate Estimates, if they are allowed to continue, might shed some light.
Tisme
You are probably right.
The Libs will most likely win Griffith now that Rudd has left the building.
Get over it sheez 😯
What, I wonder, would PJK make of the Rudd years. I suspect he would muse on the qualities of leadership in troubled times.
[If it drops the same amount now Rudd has gone, LNP Win]
And if not, not.
‘The picture here of a mad driven sociopath was always a shallow bath of slander and pyscho babble – in which sat a dirty wailing baby called June 2010, averting its gaze from the terrible stupidity of its own ill-justified existence, and its failure to engage the electorate’s love.’
Very well said. The festering lump of commentators on this site who, entranced by their own deranged imaginings, predicted Rudd’s impossible return were wrong about this as they were wrong about everything else.
All to disguise the craven stupidity that was 2010 and which gives us PM Abbott in all his glory.
I’d very very surprised if Labor didn’t retain Griffith at the by-election
Rudd still would have quit today had the stimulus been a freeze on the GST instead of pink batts AND the Greens had supported the CPRS.
The only difference is that Gillard would’ve been PM 😯
CM
Shhhh
We stick it up him after 😈
A good day for Australian politics
. Abbott crashes and burns in parliament and on the ABC
. Rudd finally exits stage left
. Bronnie continues to demonstrate complete incompetence
. Turnbull puts up has hand and says “pick me, pick me”
Time for bed
Adrian, Tony Wright is my kind of journalist even though I often disagree with him. A very good writer who occasionally, usually when he describes modest, unassuming Australians, hits the mark quite beautifully.
There’s no evidence that Rudd was especially popular in Griffith. In both 2010 and 2013 he copped the same swing as everyone else in Qld. He will have some personal vote, but not a huge amount. By-elections nearly always swing against the government, regardless of its popularity. There have been exceptions (Burwood, Benalla), but not many.
adrian,
Tony Wright doesn’t know or care that you exist.
Was Rudd an Asset or a Liability to the vote in the seat of Griffith?
Sean Tisme@2164
A cents amongst the dollars.
Where”s Bemused tonight, writing the Rudd obituary?
Its probably a mistake, but over here in sunny W.A. i am watching 7:30 with Abbott on it.
He is absolutely woeful. 🙁
He has 1 answer to any question on Boats and just keeps repeating it, again and again.
Sales is confusing him. Not that its a particularly hard thing to do.
Abbott not going to use loaded language??? FFS this is absurd. 🙁
Wow GG that really worries me. Don’t think I’ll sleep tonight.
Really, what an asinine comment, but why should I expect anything better from you?
Imacca
It gets worse. Comments in spying were woeful
Glasson will contest Griffith.
We have a moron for PM, but we can mainly blame the morons in the ALP who got rid of a sitting PM in his first term.
Sales is making Abbott look a total fool, and she doesn’t even seem to be trying hard?? WTF?
2158
The GST has not been increased since it was introduced. Are you suggesting the GST should not have been collected at all? How should the revenue gap, for the states, have been filled?
Increasing home insulation was a good policy. The problem was when the going got tough, instead of defending the policy and attacking poor safety by state regulators, Rudd folded.
Rudd should have gone to a DD either over the CPRS or earlier after getting a trigger.
adrian,
I’m always better than you.
Re the byelection in Griffiths.
The CantDo Newman effect will need to be further factored in in any election in Queensland right now.
The grub is on the nose – and getting on the nose of a lot of powerful people who were not so vocal a few months ago.
If any election campaign tied CantDo into a certain party then it would have a bearing on their chances.
I’d be confident of the Good Guys retaining the seat
[Sean Tisme
Posted Wednesday, November 13, 2013 at 10:27 pm | PERMALINK
At the 2013 election Labors vote in Griffith dropped 3.7%
If it drops the same amount now Rudd has gone, LNP Win]
There was a 5.4% swing agains Rudd in 2013 and a 3.0% swing against the ALP candidate will see Glasson elected.
[Imacca
It gets worse]
OMG! We use our powers for good!!
So we spy on them just to help them. Great!
We only spy on you for your own good you ungrateful little people!!!!!
Wot a massive Fwit.
“Go to hell bitch” from a Catholic Archbishop (Lateline).
YIKES!
The last federal by-election to produce a swing towards the incumbent party was Fremantle in 1994, and that was because the huge popularity of the Labor candidate, Carmen Lawrence. Offhand I can’t think of another one.
I should say that was a quote of an old statement not something said tonight!
Back to say Abbott getting a blasting from international expert on Lateline tonight on non attendance of Warsaw Conference,
[I should say that was a quote of an old statement not something said tonight!]
I know exactly who it was said by, and to whom, and where, and why. 🙂
od Lib,
But if there is a 10% swing to Labor they win by 13.7% and Tony is gorrn.
ruawake
Cameron Dick has informed his branch party members he will be seeking pre-selection for a safe State Labor seat being vacated.
I know the seat, but would prefer not mention it on this site at this stage. All will become clear in the next month or so.
You may find him becoming Leader while still outside Parliament, until he is elected, just like Newman did before the last election.
I understand the wheels are in motion for this to come to pass. He is a formidable candidate.
But he is a practising barrister at the moment.
Psephos – I assume you’re excluding by-elections where one of the majors didn’t run? Even so there’s Lindsay 1996 with Jackie Kelly, but that was a special case.
On Now if you want to see Abbott blasted Lateline
[Even so there’s Lindsay 1996 with Jackie Kelly, but that was a special case.]
Yes, I’d forgotten that one. But it was a very unusual case.
SNIP: Yet more abuse deleted.
We’ll see if the LNP contest Griffith or not. I’m just happy that Rudd is finally leaving the parliament and hope that his supporters in Caucus have finally seen the light that disunity is death.
“@KnottMatthew: De Boer: Repeal of carbon tax not seen internationally as a sign Australia backing away from climate action #Lateline”
[Where”s Bemused tonight, writing the Rudd obituary?]
Who cares? His absence means that PB is a more civil space.
I’d tread lightly if I were you, Bemused. You’re very lucky you aren’t banned after this morning’s performance.
“@KnottMatthew: BUT De Boer can’t think of many examples of direct action working well around the world #Lateline”
Better analogies are Blaxland in 1996 after Keating’s resignation (Libs didn’t contest), and Wannon in 1983 after Fraser’s resignation (1% swing to Lib, ie against the new government.)
I don’t understand this wish for Swan and others to resign.
Labor cannot afford to lost any more seats. They’re already up against it with the current numbers they have.
Kevin’s departure is sad as he has given much to his electorate and to the party.
Bill Glasson still has his campaign office at the end of my street, with banners flying.
I trust, whoever Labor chooses, true Labor supporters on this site will get behind the Labor candidate.
[I know the seat, but would prefer not mention it on this site at this stage. All will become clear in the next month or so.]
It can only be Woodridge or Bundamba. 🙂
“@KnottMatthew: De Boer surprised & disappointed a “key” country like Oz not sending a minister to Warsaw climate talks #Lateline”
[Kevin’s departure is sad as he has given much to his electorate and to the party.]
Much what?
[I know exactly who it was said by, and to whom, and where, and why. ]
Do tell!
Both of those were historically and numerically safe, though; I can’t imagine either Labor in 1983 or the anti-immigrationists in 1996 campaigned especially hard, although I’m not in a position to remember either. Griffith will certainly be interesting.