Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

The Abbott government’s first Newspoll broke ranks with other pollsters in recording a honeymoon bounce for the Coalition, but the second is back in the territory of the election result. Personal ratings also provide some mild encouragement for Bill Shorten.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the Abbott government’s second Newspoll result has the Coalition leading Labor 53-47, down from 56-44 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down two points on the primary vote to 45%, with Labor up one to 32% and the Greens up two to 12%. Newspoll thereby returns to the pack after its previous result, which was unique out of the 15 polls published since the election in showing a significant rise in support for the Coalition. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are still much better than any he enjoyed as Opposition Leader, although he is down two on approval to 45% and up four on disapproval to 38%. Bill Shorten has made a handy five-point gain on approval to 37%, with disapproval steady at 24%. Preferred prime minister changes only slightly, Abbott’s lead of 47-28 a fortnight ago narrowing to 46-30.

Stay tuned for the weekly Essential Research, which should be out later today.

UPDATE: Essential Research remains at 53-47, with both Coalition and Labor down a point on the primary vote, to 44% and 35% respectively, and the Greens up one to 9%. Monthly personal ratings find Tony Abbott’s disapproval on the upswing after a post-election improvement, up five points to 40%, while his approval is down one to 45% off his personal best result of a month ago. Bill Shorten’s debut ratings are 31% approval and 27% disapproval, and he trails Abbott as preferred prime minister 42-27. The poll also throws in personal ratings for Joe Hockey as Treasurer, in what looks like it might become a regular series, and it shows him viewed very favourably with 45% approval and 28% disapproval.

Further questions find 48% approving Labor’s position of dumping the carbon tax if it is replaced with an emissions trading scheme versus 26% disapproving; strongly favourable response to dumping fringe benefit tax on cars, weakly favourable response to dumping the mining tax, super tax increase and cap on education expenses, and strongly negative responses to dumping subsidies for low super contributions; and 25% opposition to live sheep and cattle exports, 16% unqualified support, and 52% support for the qualification that the receiving country should guarantee humane treatment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,313 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  4. My preferred PMs in order of preference: Keating, Hawke, Gillard, Shorten, Bob Brown…. Fraser, Howard…. Bozo the Clown, Neighbor’s black cat, creature under rock… Abbott.

  6. William Bowe @55 – interesting. I wonder what the few thousand Sports and Motoring enthusiasts who gave their first preferences to these micro parties think of that decision. After all, they could have voted for a PUP candidate if that’s what they wanted.

  8. [There’s a good chance it won’t end up mattering, but Wayne Dropulich of the Australian Sports Party has joined the Palmer “alliance”]

    Part of me thinks that the seeds for Palmer’s self-destruction (the massive ego, the unconventional behaviour which will soon lose its novelty value with the media and begin to be criticised) have already been planted and that it is only a matter of waiting.

    But … but there is also a slight chance that the man is some sort of political genius. Only a slight chance, but it is there.

    *off to bed*

  10. Re Sri Lanka
    ____________
    _+Senator Rhianon showed much courage in going there to see the maltreatment and worse of the Tamils under a brutal occupation…quite like the sufferings of the Palestinians under a similar…but longer …Israeli occupation where killings of the oppresed are just as bad as in Sri Lanka

    all occupations like that of the Nazis in Europe in WW2 are destestable…and often end by destroying the occupiers..as we can hope happens in the other cases just cited

  11. Steve777@59

    Abbott is doing liar liar pants on fire with this one.

    Its in the Convention, but there is a get out clause in the same Convention that can be applied in the case of, for example, Asylum Seekers / Migrants.

    [Each case, however, can involve different circumstances. These amendments give the responsible Government the flexibility to address each situation on a case-by-case basis]

    Contrary to the impression that Abbott and the Rabble seem to be trying to push onto the Great Unwashed of 2GB, the Indonesians are NOT acting in breach of any international law, and are exercising their rights as a sovereign state under the relevant Convention.

    Much the same as Australia has the right to do.

    In terms of the relationship with Indonesia, this is going from poor to bad to even worse. I cant imagine that they will be anything less than openly annoyed at Abbott making these kind of demonstrably false accusations against them in public.

    ref:http://www.imo.org/OurWork/Facilitation/IllegalMigrants/Documents/MSC.167(78).pdf

  13. Nothing unsurprising about this poll.

    Not surprised that Shorten has been given points for his approach.

    The Government does need to be more proactive in explaining its message, Morrison seems more at sea than that other famous Shire boy Frodo.

    The real test for the government will come when it responds to the Audit of Commission.

  19. Imacca post 65 re Murdoch
    ————-

    Rupert Loves Tony and the Libs whom he brought to power

    He also supports “the west” against any asian state,just as he supports Israel in all matters

    That is part of the conservative nature of the beast

    If you wan’t to see him getting a hiding however.and see his high hopes of breaking into the Chinese market go awray …see him as he mets a bigger pack of bullies than even he can muster..then read Bruce Dover’s book..”Rupert’s Adventures in China”..a witty and amusing look at one of his great
    a great read

  22. Mark Kenny on October 2:

    Tony Abbott has emerged from talks with his Indonesian counterpart, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, genuinely able to argue that the relationship is strengthened.

    Quite an achievement given the dire warnings of imminent relationship breakdown over his ultra-tough border protection policies.

    On those grounds alone, Abbott’s first visit to Jakarta must be judged a success.

    Abbott was not just sure-footed, but flexible as well, showing no need for ”L-plates” on his first international outing.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/first-foray-a-big-success-20131001-2uqwo.html#ixzz2kLl7eBM2

    Mark Kenny today:

    Prime Minister Tony Abbott has fired a verbal warning to Jakarta that Australia is not happy over a standoff in which a boatload of asylum seekers landed on Australian territory, despite being rescued in the Indonesian search-and-rescue zone.

    It came as two more boats were reported to have been intercepted by Australian border protection authorities, although the government has not confirmed that.

    In what appeared to be a calculated measure to remind Indonesia of the new Australian government’s resolve to stop the boats, Mr Abbott used a weekly radio appearance in Sydney to make plain Australia’s view of who was at fault over the Indonesian refusal to accept the asylum seekers.

    “These people were in a search-and-rescue situation in the Indonesian search-and-rescue zone,” Mr Abbott told radio station 2GB.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-warns-jakarta-on-refusal-to-accept-asylumseeker-boats-20131111-2xch7.html#ixzz2kLlVWrBu

    I hope Abbott’s still got those L-plates handy.

    Mistake #1:
    Thinking that a handshake and a hearty laugh = “Peace in our time”.

    Mistake #2:
    Believing Boat People are Indonesia’s problem.

    Mistake #3:
    Using 2GB to say it.

    Mistake #4:
    Actually inviting journalists to speculate, in the absence of hard confirmation of boat arrivals.

    Poor silly men (both of them – Abbott and Kenny)

  23. Steve777 #56

    I wonder what the few thousand Sports and Motoring enthusiasts who gave their first preferences to these micro parties think of that decision. After all, they could have voted for a PUP candidate if that’s what they wanted.

    I expect most of them don’t know and never will because they are part of the crowd who have no interest, no knowledge of, and no contact with politics other than for the 2 minutes they are in the polling booth.

  25. BREAKING: LABOR MINISTER IN ISLAND PARADISE TRAVEL RORT

    (visits own electorate)

    Nice try at a beat-up from News…

    DEPUTY Labor leader Tanya Plibersek charged taxpayers to take her family to holiday destination Lord Howe Island, where she met constituents.

    The Sydney MP’s electorate covers the territory 700km off the coast of NSW and she spent four days on the island, population 350, in April 2011.

    Entitlements documents show three members of Ms Plibersek’s family travelled with her, at a cost of almost $3500 in flights.

    The family flew to the island on April 24 and returned to Sydney on April 28.
    …
    She also paid for the accommodation.
    …
    Revelations of Ms Plibersek’s family trip to Lord Howe Island come as Prime Minister Tony Abbott launches a crackdown on MP travel claims.

    Politicians face being fined 25 per cent of any wrong claim.
    …
    “Tanya visited because she represents the residents of Lord Howe Island in the parliament, as it is part of the federal electorate of Sydney,” her spokesman said.

    “Tanya’s visit included attending the ANZAC Day memorial service, an event with members of the Island’s RSL, an ANZAC Day function with the local community, a day at the community hall for constituents to come to speak with Tanya as their local MP about issues, a meeting with members of the island’s board and meeting with medical staff on the island.”

    She also met with residents to discuss property and land matters, he said.
    …
    There is no suggestion Ms Plibersek’s claim was outside rules governing MPs’ expenses when she claimed her own flights, her family’s flights and a travel allowance of $908.

    Woven in throughout the piece were dire warnings about what happens to rorters.

    However, since it is her electorate, and since she did discuss genuine electoral matters (and thus the visit was “electoral business”) and since she does have the right to take her spouse, and since she did pay for the rest… what’s the problem?

    No problem. That’s the problem.

  26. Steve

    Another thought.

    The level of shafting of the Sports n Motoring supporters pales into insignificance when compared to the millions who have been double crossed by Abbott vis a vis his many broken promises in only 8 weeks.

    “Democracy” is a such a wonderous concept isn’t it.

  29. BB

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but I can’t recall any claim by News about any rorting by Labor members of the ilk of weddings, sporting events or of Randallesque proportions.

    I can’t say this hasn’t occurred but if it had News would’ve flogged it every day, and they have not apparently found one.

    But your quote again shows what good friends News are to Abbott.

  30. William

    Since I retired back in 04, I’ve come to learn that sleep is not all it’s cracked up to be.

    As a worker it was always to bed at 10 or 11 with a mindset of gettin a good rest (calculated and contemplated as more or less 8 hours) in prep for tomorrow.

    But when workin for a boss tomorrrow is not on the agenda, somehow it doesn’t matter.

    Funny how the human mind creates false ideas ……. bit like how for some, the actual pain at the dentist is far less than the pre-visit contemplations and anxiety.

    CU

  31. I can assure you that a good sleeping pattern is as important to retirement as it was before.

    I’m up only because a dose of flu has upset my pattern. When it has died down then I’ll be back to sensible hours.

  32. Newspoll is not surprising with the bias media environment. But there is three years to go to get the governments positive message out and passed ths negative oppersition.

  34. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Nice work Tone! Indonesia will be shitting itself.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-warns-jakarta-on-refusal-to-accept-asylumseeker-boats-20131111-2xch7.html
    Tanya Plibersek has her say.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/rocking-the-boats-abbott-needs-to-salvage-indonesian-ties-20131111-2xbeg.html
    What in the hell is Hartcher trying to say here?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/climate-change-when-ignorance-is-a-recipe-for-disaster-20131111-2xccy.html
    The signs are not good.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalition-government-moves-to-secure-firm-control-of-australian-parliament-20131111-2xcil.html
    Maurice Newman – Abbott’s man – shows his true colours and a glimpse of what the Audit Commission will come up with. What a precious, privileged mongrel.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/abbott-adviser-warns-on-national-income-20131111-2xcdp.html
    Greg Jericho on the “budget emergency”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/nov/11/australias-rising-debt-what-happened-to-the-coalitions-budget-emergency
    And get used to it Gerard, he’s useless!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-is-the-prime-minister-so-get-used-to-it-20131111-2xccz.html

  35. Tony Abbott warns Jakarta on refusal to accept asylum-seeker boats

    Prime Minister Tony Abbott has fired a verbal warning to Jakarta that Australia is not happy over a standoff in which a boatload of asylum seekers landed on Australian territory, despite being rescued in the Indonesian search-and-rescue zone.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-warns-jakarta-on-refusal-to-accept-asylumseeker-boats-20131111-2xch7.html#ixzz2kMxR7WCA

  36. Section 2 . . .

    Cathy Wilcox on Peta’s cone of silence.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    David Rowe with SBY’s gift to Abbott for the opening of Parliament.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    MUST SEE! David Pope on fire, so to speak.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg on CC.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

  39. Coalition government moves to secure firm control of Australian Parliament

    Parliamentary standing orders are set for an overhaul as the Abbott government looks to unwind participatory reforms negotiated under Julia Gillard’s leadership after the 2010 ”hung parliament” election.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalition-government-moves-to-secure-firm-control-of-australian-parliament-20131111-2xcil.html#ixzz2kMy1KQ5x

  41. And from the Land of the Free –

    For America this is BIG!
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/11/11/obama-pulls-trigger-mental-health-parity/
    The weekly Upchucks round up.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/11/11/weekly-upchuck-upchucks-upon-upchucks/
    This woman is stark raving mad. Surely!
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/11/11/video-sarah-palin-rejects-moderation-stand-middle-road-youre-gonna-get-hit/
    Where do they get these idiots from?
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/tony-perkins-wants-liberty-deny-birth
    I’m alright Jack!
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/texas-ag-greg-abbott-drills-well-water-lawn
    What a classy field of potential Presidential candidates!
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/11/11/1254742/-With-Chris-Christie-and-Ted-Cruz-in-the-spotlight-Rick-Perry-fights-for-political-nbsp-relevance
    A US look at the minimum wage in Australia. They obviously didn’t catch up with Maurice Newman.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017157566

  42. Rupert Murdoch’s modus operandi is to threaten to smear opponents, unless they bend to his will. It’s an old Mafia protection racket tactic, just pay us our dues and nothing will happen to your shop.

    The suborning of Clive Palmer is moving from stage 1 (be nice but threaten bad) and stage 2 (getting tame media organs to fire shots across the bow) to arrive at the penultimate stage 3 (set investigative guns onto trawling the garbage cans of the Mark). Stage 4 is reserved for existential threats (cf ALP leaders).

    Exhibit A – Stage 3 unfolding today on Clive Palmer

    [AS Clive Palmer arrives in Canberra to start his parliamentary career, his former security manager and bodyguard has revealed what he insists is the disturbing truth about the conduct of the maverick Queensland leader whose party is likely to hold the balance of power in the Senate.

    Mike Hennessy, 58, said he was speaking out to expose “the real Mr Palmer”, describing him as a tyrannical bully who has exploded with foul abuse at staff, falsely accused loyal managers at his resort on the Sunshine Coast of being “lazy, thieving c . . ts”, dispatched others by saying “you’re sacked – now get off my resort”, and privately mocked voters.]

    – See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/investigations/one-portrait-of-clive-palmer-the-tyrannical-bully/story-fnk76wj3-1226757724324#sthash.gHjwffTX.dpuf

  44. Btw, Rupert Murdoch Political Subborning 101 has just reached Stage 2 with Tanya Plibersek.

    The message is “Do what we want Girlie, or your family will be destroyed through our tabloids”

    [Entitlements documents show three members of Ms Plibersek’s family travelled with her, at a cost of almost $3500 in flights.

    FEDERAL POLLIES WHO RORT TRAVEL WILL BE FINED

    The family flew to the island on April 24 and returned to Sydney on April 28.

    Revelations of Ms Plibersek’s family trip to Lord Howe Island come as Prime Minister Tony Abbott launches a crackdown on MP travel claims.

    Politicians face being fined 25 per cent of any wrong claim.

    There is no suggestion Ms Plibersek’s claim was outside rules governing MPs’ expenses when she claimed her own flights, her family’s flights and a travel allowance of $908.

    She also paid for the accommodation.

    ]
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/island-escape-for-alp-deputy-tanya-plibersek/story-fni0cx12-1226757674159

  45. [ mari

    Posted Tuesday, November 12, 2013 at 7:36 am | Permalink

    badcat

    Stop trying to get your apprenticeship back
    ]

    —————————————————–

    Hi Mari – just looked a bit strange to see 7am tick around and no BK – although I see him participating in the afterhours battles – so thought he must have forgotten to set the alarm clock.

    Long may BK keep posting – I have no desire to do what he does – and he does it so excellently 🙂

  46. Maurice Newman’s remarks have rather let the cat out of the bag. They reflect what the Coalition’s major backers (and probably most of its Parliamentary members) actually think. So, to the voters of Western Sydney who voted against their economic interests because they were worried about boats:
    – unless you are a high income earner, your Government thinks you earn too much
    – if you are an employee, your Government thinks you have too much negotiating power
    – if you fall on hard times through illness, disability or unemployment, your Government think that’s your problem to deal with
    – unless you can afford private school fees, your kids get too much support for their education. Also, they shouldn’t go to Uni.
    – if you are employed, your employer should face no barriers in sacking you and having your job done overseas for much lower wages; or, alternatively, bringing someone over on a 457 visa to circumvent Australian wages and conditions

  47. morning all

    Sprocket

    Not a surprise re Rupert modus operandi. No doubt this is why Abbott and his flunkies feel so confident witn their current conduct. With the majority of fhe msm and shockjock land spruiking on their behave, they are in safe ground.
    What has me stumped is that indonesia are watching and listening to the rhetoric very closely and they are not impressed

  49. [Senior Australian Government frontbencher Christopher Pyne says he has not been told of any such talks between Australia and Indonesia.

    “I’m not aware of any people swap negotiations. But if there are any, I’m sure they’ll be revealed at the appropriate time.”]

    I’m not aware,
    but if there are,
    I’m sure they will be revealed

    chaotic, from a senior minister and parliament hasn’t even sat yet.

    phony tony and the government of chaos

    sounds like a bad harry potter movie

  50. Apparently Richard Marles said this yesterday

    [Richard Marles on Scott Morrison and Julie Bishop re boats and Indonesia – ‘School yard diplomacy backed up by half-arsed resolve.’]

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