Seat of the week: Bowman

Covering Brisbane’s coastal outer south, Andrew Laming’s seat of Bowman came within 64 votes of falling to Labor under Kevin Rudd in 2007, before going dramatically the other way as part of the statewide backlash three years later.

Bowman covers Brisbane’s coastal outer south from Thorneside through Capalaba and Sheldon to Redland Bay, and extends across the southern part of Moreton Bay to North Stradbroke Island. It has existed in name since 1949, but did not include any of its current territory until 1969, instead being based in Brisbane’s inner south-east. The 1969 redistribution caused the redrawn electorate to extend from the mouths of the Brisbane River in the north to the Logan River in the south, the latter also marking the Bowman’s southern extremity today. The area now covered by Bowman began to acquire its suburban character at around this time. With the redistribution of 1977, the southern part of the electorate came to be accommodated by the newly created electorate of Fadden. Bowman’s present dimensions were established when its northern neighbour Bonner was created to accommodate the Wynnum-Manly area at the 2004 election, setting Thorneside as the northern extremity of Bowman.

Bowman in its various permutations has been a marginal seat for most of its history, having been held by the Liberals throughout the Menzies and Holt years outside of a win by Labor as part of its near-victory at the 1961 election. It next changed hands with the big swing to Labor under Gough Whitlam’s leadership in 1969, and would henceforth go with the government of the day until 1998. Leonard Keogh held the seat for Labor from 1969 to 1975 and again after 1983, and also contested unsuccessfully in 1977 and 1980. Keogh was defeated for preselection in 1987 by Con Sciacca, who lost the seat to Liberal candidate Andrea West in 1996 before winning it back again in 1998. The Liberal member during the Fraser years was David Jull, who re-emerged as member for Fadden in 1984.

The reorganisation caused by the creation of Bonner in 2004 boosted the Liberal margin in Bowman by 4.4%, prompting Sciacca to unsuccessfully try his hand in Bonner. Bowman meanwhile was won by Liberal candidate Andrew Laming, an ophthalmologist and World Bank health consultant who added a solid 5.9% to the notional Liberal margin of 3.0%. Laming spent much of 2007 under the shadow of the “printgate” affair, in which he was investigated for allegedly claiming $67,000 to print campaign material for state election candidates, before being cleared two months before the election. After rumblings that the affair might cost him his preselection, Laming survived an 8.9% swing to Labor at the 2007 election to hold on by 64 votes. He had a much easier time of it in 2010, his 10.4% swing being strong even by the standards of Queensland at that election. There was a correction in Labor’s favour of 1.5% at the 2013 election, going slightly against the trend of a 1.3% statewide swing to the Liberal National Party.

Laming was promoted to the position of shadow parliamentary secretary for regional health services and indigenous health after the 2010 election, but was dropped after the Abbott government came to power.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,053 comments on “Seat of the week: Bowman”

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  1. Bushfire Bill@32
    Interesting post on HD TV.

    I watch TV from considerably more than 2 metres and had not noticed any difference between HD and SD.

    I had been wondering if it was just my eyes, but clearly it isn’t.

    So what is the point of the next generation of even higher denfinition TVs?

  2. On the Rudd thing. I do not care if it is true or not. Along with saying Sorry as PM to the Stolen Generation its one of the best things he has done.

    The party is better for it no matter what you may regard as Mr Rudds motives and he deserves the kudos for getting the ball rolling.

  3. guytaur:

    Rudd has been a destructive and divisive force within Labor for many years now. His craven cowardice and selfishness have done the party no favours at all, and the good things he did are far outweighed by the devastation he wrought.

    He needs to retire from parliament.

  4. confessions@58

    guytaur:

    Rudd has been a destructive and divisive force within Labor for many years now. His craven cowardice and selfishness have done the party no favours at all, and the good things he did are far outweighed by the devastation he wrought.

    He needs to retire from parliament.

    You need to grow a brain and recover from your blind and irrational hatred.

  5. confessions

    Credit where it is due. Labor people manage to do that with John Howard’s Gun Laws. Surely Labor people can do the same for one of their own.

  6. A TOP business group has attacked Tony Abbott’s plans to scrap nearly $4 billion in tax concessions for mainly small businesses as part of the axing of the mining tax, arguing that it will permanently increase compliance costs and cut investment returns at a time when business is struggling.
    =================================================

    Liberal Policy states;
    Lowering taxes and reducing business costs

    We will reduce costs for every business by cutting taxes: by abolishing the carbon tax and cutting company tax.

    It doesn’t seem to be working out that way. Another broken promise.

  7. guytaur:

    I’m quite happy to give credit where it’s due. But that doesn’t mean that his appalling behaviour over the last few years in particular should be excused.

  8. confessions@45


    Of course he did, because he’s an arrogant, selfish, vindictive individual.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-04/kevin-rudd-considered-staying-on-labor-leader-bruce-hawker-says/5066798

    That weird speech on election night very very reluctantly resigning as leader. Seemed to me at the time that he was looking for a way to stay – great difficulty in getting the words out –

    This page in the election night thread –

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/09/07/election-night-live/?comment_page=25/#comments

  9. confessions

    If you are willing to give credit where it is due you can start by not being negative immediately after a positive comment.

    You could instead have said that yes getting leadership election up has resulted in a process that is in the interests of the party future.

    As I said I was looking at the result not the motives.

  10. guytaur:

    I’ll call it as I see it. As it stands the good stuff Rudd did as leader are far outweighed by his whiteanting, cowardice and undermining of his own party.

    He could make amends for it by retiring from parliament.

  11. confessions

    Read my post again. I stated a fact. I did not speculate on motives. I said nothing about the 2010 election.

    If you disagree that getting the leadership ballot up for the party say so.
    You want to rake over the past yet again that is up to you. However do not pretend it has anything to do with my post.

  12. Banning smoking in jails could drive the tobacco trade underground and make more work for prison officers, Corrective Services Minister Joe Francis says.

    As Queensland became the latest State to flag a ban on smoking in prisons, Mr Francis did not rule out following suit in WA but said he was leaning towards “maintaining the status quo” of allowing smoking in designated outdoor areas.

    “It’s well and truly on my radar, I’m watching this space,” he said. “I’m aware that there’s very strong arguments for and against and at the moment I’m slightly on the side of maintaining the status quo on this.

    “One of the things against it is my concern that there’s a large percentage of people in prisons who have some kind of mental health issue.

    “When they’ve been incarcerated they have been removed from their families and their support networks, they’re giving up – in many cases – drug addictions cold turkey, they’re giving up alcohol. I’m not quite sure if forcing them to give up nicotine is just a bridge too far.

    “My concerns are not so much the prisoners but the management of the prisons because it’ll create another contraband substance that will possibly be smuggled in.”
    =========================================================

    Looks like Joe is listening to some practical people

  13. bemused

    [You need to grow a brain and recover from your blind and irrational hatred.]

    Yesterday you said that all you do is “correct” people. Accusing others of being “sick”, “full of hatred” and similar things is not as objective as you like to think you are. Please allow others to have opinions that are not the same as yours.

  14. If it is risky not to arm AFP policepersons, are asylum seekers released for resettlement into PNG provided with arms in order to protect themselves from being raped, robbed and murdered?

  15. lizzie@70

    bemused

    You need to grow a brain and recover from your blind and irrational hatred.


    Yesterday you said that all you do is “correct” people. Accusing others of being “sick”, “full of hatred” and similar things is not as objective as you like to think you are. Please allow others to have opinions that are not the same as yours.

    Maybe I should just launch irrational anti-Gillard rants, day in, day out as a counter?

    Nope, I have better things to do.

  16. victoria

    Jesus tore his coat in half and gave half of it away to someone who needed it.

    Abbott is the Roman Catholic follower of Jesus who took $4.5 billion from the poorest people in the world.

  17. bw

    Maybe. However his caucus colleagues cannot act until Mr Rudd puts a foot wrong.

    Claims by an advertising executive in a book written at the least to make the author look good have to be treated with caution no matter how much truth you suspect it contains.

  18. Gillard is gone. Rudd remains.

    Shorten had better beware the Ides of March and every other day because Cassius lurks and lurks and lurks.

  19. AEC Commissioner Killerstein (spelling ?) was asked by FKelly what options the HC might have. He listed one I hadn’t contemplated ie that the HC order that first count of the missing votes be included with the second count of the others.

    Don’t know if he’d know, but there you have it.

    One thing’s for sure, whatever order the HC makes, that’s it. Fortunately it, not a Pommie court is our final arbiter, sadly for the monareskisseds like Abbott n Flint.

  20. [VictorianLaborWomen
    Historical look at women in federal cabinet. RT: “@ABCFactCheck: The women in cabinet since 1976… pic.twitter.com/fmQx4ylB5J” ]

  21. bw

    So you think caucus members are dumb and without their own ambition. Incapable of learning from the past?

    That is my view of what caucus would have to be like to allow yet another back to the future leadership change.

  22. Socrates@21. Ludlam will be working till 1 July anyway – his term doesn’t finish till then. Pratt would only ever be a senator elect till then, not commissioned… Does that make sense?

    If it were a lower house seat, there is a court case on point, curiously enough. An MP tried to claim back pay after he was defeated but then re-elected after a court case. The court said ‘no’, and the salary was properly earnt by the short-lived MP in between.

  23. bemused

    You wrote anti-Gillard posts throughout her PM-ship.
    We know how you feel.
    I try very hard never to mention Rudd, even when it would be relevant, because of the instant flaming in his defence by you and a couple of others. It shits down any reasonable discussion.

  24. Boerwar@79


    Assuming those 1375 votes have not been burnt, where are they? What happens when/if they are ‘found’?

    Misfiled somewhere most probably amongst all the other paper.

    AEC have search by cannot find them.

    Abbott has to be on good behaviour until the new WA senate election is held.

    Now how many WA NBN sites have been ‘suspended’?

  25. [ lizzie

    Posted Monday, November 4, 2013 at 10:41 am | Permalink

    shits = shuts
    ]

    ——————————————-

    Lizzie – in THIS case – its almost the same thing ….

  26. [ dave

    Posted Monday, November 4, 2013 at 10:45 am | Permalink

    lizzie@84

    shits = shuts

    Lizzie – You had it right to start with
    —————————————-

    Dave : SNAP 😉

  27. dave

    Not just NBN. What other cuts are happening before the WA election?
    What cuts do we know are coming in the budget already as confirmed by the Abbott Government.

    How about the debt backflip. Lots of issues for Labor and the Greens to campaign on as proof voters were not told the truth already.

  28. In WA we’ve also seen the state Liberal Govt breaking promises, lying in Parliament, cutting back on promised infrastructure, wasting millions and then we also have the WA MP Randall and his arrogance over his travel rorts.

  29. guytaur@89


    dave

    Not just NBN. What other cuts are happening before the WA election?
    What cuts do we know are coming in the budget already as confirmed by the Abbott Government.

    How about the debt backflip. Lots of issues for Labor and the Greens to campaign on as proof voters were not told the truth already.

    Yes.

    Lets see what WA voters do about it.

    Fool me twice….

  30. [Banning smoking in jails could drive the tobacco trade underground and make more work for prison officers, Corrective Services Minister Joe Francis says.]

    So, on that logic, let’s legalise heroin and alcohol in jails as well.

    Actually, the whole keeping people incarcerated so they can’t do what they want to thing is really just too hard anyway – let ’em all out.

    I mean, chasing after people to stop them thieving, raping and murdering is just a ‘make work’ scheme for the police.

    Let’s not stop anyone doing anything they want to do…because it’s just too hard.

  31. lizzie@82

    bemused

    You wrote anti-Gillard posts throughout her PM-ship.
    We know how you feel.
    I try very hard never to mention Rudd, even when it would be relevant, because of the instant flaming in his defence by you and a couple of others. It shits down any reasonable discussion.

    I think the record will show I wrote mainly in response to irrational anti-Rudd rants.

    I also vigorously defended Gillard over the AWU issue and would still do so.

    But the fact remains she was never PM material and was a disaster for Labor.

    I now try to avoid mentioning either Rudd or Gillard as both are now in the past as far as leadership goes. Rudd is not a contender and never will be again. I doubt he would even vote for himself!

    I confine myself to responding to the usual bunch of idiots who try to rewrite history and make Gillard good by slagging Rudd.

  32. zoomster

    The problem to think about is what about when they come out of prison? Do we want them to commit crime again?
    They are human beings and need to be treated as such if we are going to stop recidivism.

    The solution is not a blanket ban. Its designated outside smoking areas so OHWS can be satisfied but treating people with respect.
    Do have aggressive anti smoking education programmes for your captured audience

  33. Kevin Rudds nuclear destruction of the Labor vote is one thing but the lack of appropriate response (expulsion) to the destruction by the ALP shows a complete breakdown in its purpose.

    I’ve concluded that the tories are in for an extended run of governing, possibly a longer run than the Howard Govt, while the ALP struggle in quicksand.

  34. Well you would have to conclude that it took a most effective effort of self-harm by Labor to get Abbott elected PM and you would think Labor people would not want to keep bringing it up.

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