Seat of the week: Bowman

Covering Brisbane’s coastal outer south, Andrew Laming’s seat of Bowman came within 64 votes of falling to Labor under Kevin Rudd in 2007, before going dramatically the other way as part of the statewide backlash three years later.

Bowman covers Brisbane’s coastal outer south from Thorneside through Capalaba and Sheldon to Redland Bay, and extends across the southern part of Moreton Bay to North Stradbroke Island. It has existed in name since 1949, but did not include any of its current territory until 1969, instead being based in Brisbane’s inner south-east. The 1969 redistribution caused the redrawn electorate to extend from the mouths of the Brisbane River in the north to the Logan River in the south, the latter also marking the Bowman’s southern extremity today. The area now covered by Bowman began to acquire its suburban character at around this time. With the redistribution of 1977, the southern part of the electorate came to be accommodated by the newly created electorate of Fadden. Bowman’s present dimensions were established when its northern neighbour Bonner was created to accommodate the Wynnum-Manly area at the 2004 election, setting Thorneside as the northern extremity of Bowman.

Bowman in its various permutations has been a marginal seat for most of its history, having been held by the Liberals throughout the Menzies and Holt years outside of a win by Labor as part of its near-victory at the 1961 election. It next changed hands with the big swing to Labor under Gough Whitlam’s leadership in 1969, and would henceforth go with the government of the day until 1998. Leonard Keogh held the seat for Labor from 1969 to 1975 and again after 1983, and also contested unsuccessfully in 1977 and 1980. Keogh was defeated for preselection in 1987 by Con Sciacca, who lost the seat to Liberal candidate Andrea West in 1996 before winning it back again in 1998. The Liberal member during the Fraser years was David Jull, who re-emerged as member for Fadden in 1984.

The reorganisation caused by the creation of Bonner in 2004 boosted the Liberal margin in Bowman by 4.4%, prompting Sciacca to unsuccessfully try his hand in Bonner. Bowman meanwhile was won by Liberal candidate Andrew Laming, an ophthalmologist and World Bank health consultant who added a solid 5.9% to the notional Liberal margin of 3.0%. Laming spent much of 2007 under the shadow of the “printgate” affair, in which he was investigated for allegedly claiming $67,000 to print campaign material for state election candidates, before being cleared two months before the election. After rumblings that the affair might cost him his preselection, Laming survived an 8.9% swing to Labor at the 2007 election to hold on by 64 votes. He had a much easier time of it in 2010, his 10.4% swing being strong even by the standards of Queensland at that election. There was a correction in Labor’s favour of 1.5% at the 2013 election, going slightly against the trend of a 1.3% statewide swing to the Liberal National Party.

Laming was promoted to the position of shadow parliamentary secretary for regional health services and indigenous health after the 2010 election, but was dropped after the Abbott government came to power.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,053 comments on “Seat of the week: Bowman”

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  1. bemused

    [I have never understood the adulation for her on PB and can only put it down to a cult of some sort.]

    {sigh}

    I’m reluctant to take this remark at face value.

    While I suppose there must be someone here who bears Gillard ‘adulation’ I’m not aware of anyone regularly posting here who puts that view.

    I’m putting this under the hheading troll/strawman. On that basis, and rephrasing to reflect the kinds of people who spring most readily to Gillard’s defence in this place:

    I have never understood the determination on many here on PB to {defend/apologise for Gillard’s leadership/prefer her to Rudd} and can only put it down to a cult of some sort.

    Really? You hold yourself out as someone with some powers of analysis. “Some sort of cult” is the only hypothesis you can manage, despite the Gillard v Rudd thing being argued up hill and down dale in this place for more than 3 years?

    I’m inclined to the view that you do have some powers of analysis, and if that’s so, then you are at the least being disingenuous. You know there are more plausible hypotheses than that, particularly as a number on the pro-Gillard side have suggested they’d like the discussion to move on — which could scarcely be the case if some sort of cult had driven it.

    A far better hypothesis would be that many people here believed that

    a) disrupting an ALP PM was wrong in principle and seriously unwise. I thought that was true in 2010 and was still true in 2013, except that in 2013 we had massive confirmation, were any needed of that in 2010.

    b) Some saw Rudd as unfit for leadership in any event. In short, it wasn’t that they had a cultish attachment to Gillard but a complete lack of confidence in Rudd’s management skills and integrity.

    c) Some resented the cynicism involved in doing the bidding of Newspoll and thought the government was doing a good job and on that basis should support the existing leader particularly as she was the first female PM.

    d) Some hated the resort of the popular media to misogynistic characterisations of Gillard and rightly or wrongly saw Rudd as winking at them by his undermining of the PM. Again, that’s not cultish behaviour.

    Now I’m going to dare you to claim that none of these alternative hypotheses ever crossed your mind or was ever put to you in some form or another.

    I have no wish to discuss the merits of any of these rationales. We’ve done that here ad nauseum. I agree in advance that you don’t find these claims persuasive.

    Have you considered the possibility that others might find them persuasive?

  2. If the Audit of Commission was made up with professional auditors i could see some point to the price tag.

    A question which someone should put to Hockey. the budget was handed down in May yet in the time since he either has not read it or he cannot read it.

    If he has read it surely he has been able to identify what needs reviewing without needing and audit and if he cannot read it then how can he continue as Treasurer.

    The audit might be a good idea if you are new too the business but Hockey isn’t new to the business of parliament.

    If there are things in the budget which he was concerned about where were the questions to Swannie and Bowen.

    I don’t recall Hockey making use of QT to probe the previous government.

  3. lizzie

    Blaming a quarter of a million Indian suicides on seed companies is a bit rich, IMHO.

    The real target here should be Indian money lenders and Indian governments which allow phenomenal abuse.

    Interest rates are frequently in the order of 30-40% or more. These bastards make our finance industry spivs look like paragons of virtue.

    A single crop failure is enough to drag the lender under for the rest of his life. Debts pass from generation to generation so there exists a system whereby millions of people are working in absolute debt slavery with no hope of ever getting out from under.

    Compounding evils are ever-increasing population pressure and dowry prices. The population pressure ensures that surpluses per farm are less with each additional family member. The dowry prices simply add to the lending pressures.

    GMOs and farm chemical costs are at the margins of this sort of lending behaviour.

    A quarter of a million suicides directly attributable to a relatively simple failure of governance and governmental will?

    India, as a nation, should be disgusted with itself, IMHO.

  4. @mb/803

    Considering that Newman got Costello for how much it was ($3300 per day?) and didn’t achieve Budget Surplus, why the need for $1500 per day for experts? Why not use the Goverment own offices?

    All this is going to do is hurt the tax payer.

  5. [ The only worse Labor leader I can recall would be Mark Latham.

    I have never understood the adulation for her on PB and can only put it down to a cult of some sort. ]

    On the other hand, anyone who has spent more than a few minutes on here completely understands your obsessive hatred.

  6. Indonesia is pissed off with the Abbott government because they will not commit to stop spying, in fact they will not say anything.

    Sounds familiar. They will not say anything about anything bar No.

  7. Zoidlord

    That is what i am getting at, if you are the treasurer and you saw spending in the budget you didn’t agree with or understand its purpose the first step surely is to ask your department to seek information about the program including its purpose then you or the department might go and talk to the people implementing the program.

  8. Guytaur – what have you done to you avatar?

    And to others…..okay so Gail is a good conservative.

    I did not see/hear her comments but that a Murdoch rag may have taken whatever she said and puffed up the Coalition is certainly no surprise.

  9. badcat @ 798

    That is quite a good article by Abjorenson except that he ignores the serial insults hurled at muslims by Abbott’s shockjocks and by serial offenders in his Party. It also ignores the serial insults to Indonesia’s sovereignty.

    Apart from that, pretty good, IMHO.

  10. guytaur@799


    It should not just be Coles worried. Amazon stocks almost everything. If Amazon comes to Australia goodbye high margins for good.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/motley-fool/why-coles-is-right-to-fear-amazon-20131105-2wylb.html

    When Aldi came to Australia they couldn’t believe the margins Coles, Woolies were demanding and getting.

    Aldi charge about a third less on most stuff, but to be fair the magority of what they sell is their own brands.

    Aldi also give suppliers and growers a fair deal, old fashion stuff like paying on time and at the agreed price without trying to heavy them.

  11. Boerwar

    I only took out a small piece to quote to grab interest, but I am very much in sympathy with the rest of the article: with the criticisms of the calculation of GDP as the only way of judging a successful economy.

  12. @Dave/814

    Another store recently come to Australia, is Daiso, a Japanese Chain of Stores, which opening more stores around Australia.

    They do abit of everything there as well, and cheap.

  13. Police interview anonymous video maker, but say he has not committed any offence. So why interview him?

    Instructions from Newman no doubt.

    More to the point, the police will want to be seen to be doing a thorough job – they’ve investigated, talked to people involved, decided there’s no crime – their arses are covered regardless of what Newman says or does.

    If Newman wasn’t involved, of course the police would have ignored the whole thing, but particularly with Newman’s current war on the Courts they have to be seen to be dotting every i, crossing every t.

  14. ruawake@809


    Indonesia is pissed off with the Abbott government because they will not commit to stop spying, in fact they will not say anything.

    Sounds familiar. They will not say anything about anything bar No.

    The Australian Government will be saying and doing whatever the Yanks “advise” them to do on this matter and the Indons are no doubt aware of it.

    Same with huawei the matter. Thats the real reason the tories have had to back flip. No security sharing by the US with Australia if huawei are involved in the NBN.

  15. Same with huawei the matter.

    And the thing about the Huawei matter is the current tension was entirely avoidable. If the LNP had simply shut their traps in opposition and not promised to review the matter, they wouldn’t have had to rule Huawei out again, and insult the Chinese a second time for no reason.

  16. Tricot

    It was time for a change. That colour was starting to annoy me so that must mean its annoying others.

    Zoid and Dave

    I have been told that in business its a good idea to look at turnover and not margin.
    After all you can have a 250% margin, but it will do no good if you are not selling.

  17. turnover and not margin

    Return on Investment is king, and always has been.

    You can make up for low margin with high turnover, and vice versa, and which you can achieve depends on what business you are in and which segment of the market you are targeting.

    But regardless, you need to be able to justify the money you have tied up in stock, manufacturing facilities, warehouses, retail stores etc.

  18. Jackol – Thats right.

    But we are not hearing old media mention that and the implications not only for a FTA within a year, but the future in general.

    The comrades have long memories.

    To be fair they a lot to have long memories about, particularly with the west and japan.

  19. Jackol

    Amazon has a huge advantage there. Running servers instead of retail stores. Much cheaper to run. No land to buy no rents to pay less staff required.

    What amazes me is that no one is competing with Amazon. Its the internet General Store.

  20. Yes ROI is the king of indicators although if i am looking at a business i take a look at several other internal and external indicators.

  21. Fran while all of your points (a) to (d) are theories a person may embrace neither alone or together they do not explain the cultish posting here IMHO.

    Like you I’m am sure that 2010 was a mistake, unlike you I’m not sure 2013 was a mistake. However both were handled incredibly badly.

    Gillards problem was publicly visible and it was polling. A change clearly was needed, even cultists had stopped believing the ‘recovery’ was just around the corner. However the when and how we’re both wrong.

    Rudd’s problems, if indeed we are to believe people who have great reason to rewrite history rather than be honest about it – and I don’t – Rudd should have been handled very differently – I don’t think if you reviewed it, you could find a worse way of doing it.

    Now both 2010 and 2013 were going to create cults within Labor followers who needed to find a logically consistent reason to keep the faith when their beloved leader changed. The beliefs and rationales of both sides may look, in isolation, as reasonable and good reason. Doesn’t necessarily mean it is not cultish behavior going on.

    In fact other than our esteemed host and occassional expert guests like A Green I consider most posters who are worth reading to be cultish. I am probably not worth reading but I know at times I tend to cultish thought and analysis.

    What I’m always suspicious of is the ‘open minded swinging’ posters.

  22. Huawei did all they could legitimately to lobby the Coalition, who did everything to accept the hospitality and gifts they could.

    It shows their duplicitous nature, best mates one day. Get nicked the next.

  23. Shellbell #797

    Poroti #775 put up a link about the actions of Chief Magistrate Tim Carmody in channelling all bikie bail applications to hisself, not a Chief Judge, if that is the matter you are referring to.

  24. rua

    Yes the Coalition did that. This causes a loss of “Face”. With Labor the refusal did not have any such loss of “Face”

  25. Aldi Australia were funded by their German parent, of course.

    After a short time in Australia, they were in a position to repay the debt, but their Head Office said no, use it to expand and thats what they are doing – hand over fist.

    Woolies and Coles know they have a fight when ALDI gets big enough.

    But it all supports the view of Australian businesses expect very high margins to those received internationally in comparable countries. The same Australian businesses are slow to innovate and to embrace change.

    Exhibit 1 Gerry Harvey. Lots more as well.

    But they get first class honours when it comes to squealing.

  26. [@samanthamaiden: Cameramen now filming men vacuuming moths. This is what you get when Tony Abbott rations press conferences.]

    How much lower can we go?

  27. Woolies appears to be falling behind Coles.

    Coles and its parent Wesfarmers appear to be in better shape with Bunnings outperforming Masters.

    I suspect Aldi would be competing more with Woolies than Coles.

  28. [@samanthamaiden: Cameramen now filming men vacuuming moths. This is what you get when Tony Abbott rations press conferences.]

    (In a “1950s Dad” voice) Well Sam, back in my day, when the Government was withholding information from us, we did a little thing called “investigative journalism”.

  29. If Gillard was such a good Prime Minister, why did her party dump her and replace her with a guy they had dumped previously because they thought he was completely useless and incompetent?

    Doesn’t exactly sound like a success now does it?

  30. Turnbull was an unelectable failure so was dumped by Labor slayer Abbott who has done a magnificent job of destroying the jobs of many a Labor politician and their cohorts(Slippery Pete, Oakeshott and Windsor)

    If the claim is that the Coalition dumped an ineffective leader for a highly effective leader who then went on to become PM, Guilty as Charged.

    Now why did Labor dump Dillard again for the other bloke they dumped previously?

  31. One of the best Coles – Woolies stories to be buried by the MSM was they have both decided to only use locally produced vegetables in their home-brands (instead of Chinese is some cases) and have done a deal with SPC to source all home brand canned fruits from them also.

    This comes on top of not selling cage eggs and moves on sow stall pork.

    At least we can lobby our supermarkets with our purchase choices. But it does not follow the nasty duopoly theme developed by The National Party and others.

  32. zoidlord,

    I’m happy to admit Turnbull was a failure as leader.

    It’s time to admit Rudd was a failure as leader, but Gillard was much much much worse which is why she was rolled and failed leader number 1 replaced her.

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