Update (Thursday 6pm):
The contents of the post below, written overnight, have been dramatically superseded by today’s events. Firstly and most straightforwardly, Clive Palmer has been declared the winner in Fairfax by 53 votes. Secondly and more dramatically, the Australian Electoral Commission has made the bombshell announcement that 1375 verified votes from the original count, including 1255 above-the-line and 120 informal votes, have gone missing during the recount process. The AEC will proceed with a declaration tomorrow, but the initial balance of opinion among noted authorities (by which I so far mean Antony Green and Nick Minchin) appears to be that this will be the subject of a successful legal challenge that will cause the result to be declared void, resulting in the entire state of Western Australia going back to the polls.
The legal issues involved in this are beyond my pay grade (paging Graeme Orr and Antony Green), but I am aware of two precedents worth examining:
• On February 15, 1908, a “special election” was held in South Australia to resolve a protracted dispute over the result of the election of December 12, 1906. The Senate election system at this time simply involved voters crossing boxes of three candidates (in the case of a half-Senate election), with the elected members being those to receive the most votes. Naturally enough, most voters voted for the three candidates of their favoured party. Support in South Australia being evenly balanced between Labor and “Anti-Socialist” (hitherto identified as “Free Trade”), this resulted in six candidates receiving very similar shares of the vote. Anti-Socialist Sir Josiah Symon and Labor’s William Russell emerged slightly ahead of the field and were clearly elected, but very little separated another Anti-Socialist candidate, Joseph Vardon, and two Labor candidates, D.A. Crosby and Reginald Blundell. The Court of Disputed Returns resolved that Vardon was the winner by two votes, but that it would have gone differently had it not been for the failure of a returning officer to initial ballot papers. The result with respect to Vardon was consequently declared void.
There followed a dispute as to whether this constituted a casual vacancy to be filled by the state parliament, which the Labor-controlled parliament of South Australia sought to do by selecting one of its own, James O’Loughlin. This was challenged by Vardon in the High Court, which determined that under the legislation existing at the time it was up to the Senate itself to decide if a vacancy existed. A bill was then passed to have this particular matter and all future recurrences referred to the High Court, which concurred with Vardon that a casual vacancy did not apply with respect to a void election result, and that a fresh election had to be held specifically with respect to the third seat. This was duly held with Vardon and O’Loughlin as the only candidates, with Vardon emerging the winner by 41,443 votes to 35,779 (source: Psephos).
So while there is certainly a precedent for an entire state to go back to the polls for a Senate election, it was conducted in the context of an entirely different electoral system. Presumably a new election would have to be for all six seats, and not simply a partial election as was held in 1908. The Vardon matter also involved the question of casual vacancies, which does not apply here – in Vardon’s case, the result was declared void after his term had begun, whereas the term for this election does not begin until the middle of next year.
• The other precedent which springs to mind for a re-staging of a multi-member election was that which followed the state election in Tasmania in 1979. Under its Hare-Clark system, each of Tasmania’s five electorates returned seven members (now five). The result for Denison in 1979, which returned four Labor and three Liberal members, was declared void because three of those elected were found to have exceeded statutory limits on campaign spending. This caused a new election for Denison to be held on February 16, 1980, this time resulting in Labor losing one of its four seats to Norm Sanders of the Australian Democrats.
Original post:
That election we had a while back is still in a sense not over, with recounts continuing for Fairfax and the Western Australian Senate. While these recounts are shortly to conclude, there is unfortunately a fairly big chance that the next stop will be the courts.
• The WA Senate recount was, last I heard, scheduled to be concluded either tomorrow or on Monday. The recount could potentially overturn the election of Labor’s Louise Pratt and the Palmer United Party’s Dio Wang in favour of Scott Ludlam of the Greens and Wayne Dropulich of the Australian Sports Party if it closes a 14-vote gap between Shooters and Fishers and Australian Christians at an early point in the count (although Labor reportedly plans a legal challenge if this occurs). Rechecking of over a million above-the-line votes has inevitably turned up anomalies, most notably a bundle of several hundred votes that were wrongly assigned to the informal pile, eliciting a predictably hyperbolic response from Clive Palmer. It should be observed that such votes will only have the potential to change the result if they affect the vote totals for Shooters and Fishers and Australian Christians, which applies only to votes cast for those parties or those which fed them preferences (No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics in the case of Australian Christians, Australian Voice, Australian Independents and Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party in the case of Shooters and Fishers) – about 3.6% of the total. UPDATE: Oh dear – the AEC reports “a serious administrative issue” in which 1375 verified votes from the original count, including 1255 above-the-line and 120 informal votes, have gone missing. Nick Minchin, who had ministerial oversight over electoral matters during the Howard years, suggests the entire election may have to be held again.
• The Fairfax recount grinds on even more laboriously, owing to the Clive Palmer camp’s tactic of challenging literally every vote that goes against them, requiring them to be sent to the state’s chief electoral officer for determination. The tactic seems to have worked, because the recount process has seen Palmer’s lead steadily inflate from seven to 58. The ABC reports the recount should be concluded either by tomorrow or early next week. However, the Liberal National Party is reportedly set to launch a legal challenge against the result which, if the experience of the Victorian seat of McEwen at the 2007 election is anything to go by, will result in the Federal Court reaching determinations of its own on the status of disputed ballot papers.
• Meanwhile, Kevin Bonham comprehensively catalogues points at issue in the Senate electoral system and the relative merits of proposed solutions, and a piece from Antony Green on the South Australian Legislative Council system also has a lot to say about the Senate.
Does anyone know what Abbott is hiding?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/silence-echoes-across-canberra-as-the-coalition-clams-up-20131102-2wt5k.html#ixzz2jXZuYAqM
Policies Zoidlord? A direction for the country?
Hmmm, perhaps best they stay mute.
Looking at the 14/15 seats listed by William not only brings home just how thin some margins are but once seats are tucked in to one side or the other, the “landslide” talk is generated because it does look a massive win to the one side.
There was never more than 4-5% in it just recently, but it is enough and the general win/loss boundaries have been something like that historically.
At least Howard had the gumption to warn his troops about their hubris, a lesson which seems to be lost on the current set of the LNP.
However, a win is a win. It will now have to wait a couple of years yet. Mind you, if the sophomore factor is true as William says, then this is a bit of added protection for Abbott.
On the other hand with Tassie looking as it might go on to the dark side, and maybe SA, the electorate may not be too happy to have wall to wall conservative governments.
There are some boundary changes to I gather and the likelihood of one more seat in WA and one less in NSW.
It was often claimed that Big Kimbo’s biggest problem was that that if he had won the election he should have won, then there would have been wall to wall Labor, and the conservatives cleverly only concentrated on marginal seats to good effect in that election.
Of course, there is no reason why Labor could not do the same thing as this current Federal government is likely to find the going very rough on the basis of their first 60 days.
Lots of reviews, lots of secrecy, lots of chest thumping and little else while parliament has not even met for the first time.
I would like to see John Howard given the GG gig.
Being one of the longest serving MP’s to the Australian people he deserves the gig IMHO.
Its a good strategy as long as they are actually getting on with governing.
Many people are tried of hearing the endless pollywaffle which seemed to dominate the Rudd/Gillard government.
But there is a risk as if the strategy turns into a perception of a lack of activity then it may take a hit in the polls.
It has been a fairly active government up to this point but it is still laying the ground work and the real test will be next year.
Michael Kirby would be an excellent choice and I doubt Abbott or anyone else would have an issue with that.
Sue Gordon would be a fine choice.
For GG I would have thought some old war horse like Cosgrove would be the go.
Closet conservative when serving and one of Howard’s favourites.
The red necks love all that military dressing up and parading about with banners, flags, medals and things.
Just so, so patriotic.
Well maybe then it should be our Crank
Kirby has no chance… he’s a Labor man through and through and has had some public biffs with the Coalition.
Just read up about Sue Gordon… sounds like a good choice as well.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/largest-coal-mine-approved-in-queensland-20131103-2wuiw.html
And this is what you get when you invite LNP MPs to your family weddings- huge slices of Australia to ruin….
Dame Edna Everage for GG
would do a fine job and those clothes and hats
Kim Beasley or Andrew Peacock spring to mind although I doubt it will be a politician.
Alan Border or Steve Waugh although I’m not sure they’d accept a demotion after holding the highest office in the country.
deblonay – not sure Dame Edna would be available but Barry Humphries would be masterful.
If Abbott is true to his word that his govt will be a ‘no surprises’ govt, then his GG pick will be Howard.
[And this is what you get when you invite LNP MPs to your family weddings- huge slices of Australia to ruin….]
Labor fully support Australia’s coal mining industry and shipping as much dirty coal off to China(carbon tax free) as possible.
It’s only when we burn that coal in Australia for Australian families does Labor have a problem.
At least the Extreme Greens are consistant and want no Coal mining at all.
Compact Crank@2613
But scary!
He could lapse into Sir Les Patterson mode and where would we be then with Abbott and Sir Les as a duo? 👿
Sean – Kirby may be a Labour man – doesn’t matter as the GG is an apolitical position – current one doing a magnificent job despite her politics.
Importantly Kirby is a supporter of our current system of Government – he is not a rabid republican.
confessions – Howard would be a surprise as he has already been ruled out by himself and I think also Abbott.
I’m surprised no one has nominated Rupert
He seems to dominate the minds of so many.
bemused – pissed probably.
I’m not really that fussed who gets the GG gig. Day to day, it’s more ceremonial than anything. The GG doesn’t decide government policy or anything like that, so it’s low on my list of things to be bothered by.
I doubt it will be John Howard. Bill Hayden aside, it’s not really received well to appoint politicians to that position. Of the other (realistic) names mentioned, I don’t see a problem with any of them. As long as they serve the role exactly as prescribed by convention, stay out of partisan political debate and not make a tit of themselves, they’ve done the job as far as I am concerned.
And the designate’s religion, sexuality, family status or position on the republic debate has nothing to do with their suitability for the role.
carey – I just don’t think a Republican would accept the position.
[carey – I just don’t think a Republican would accept the position.]
I don’t know about GGs but I know that, on a state level, the current SA Governor, Kevin Scarce, is a republican.
As long as they understand their duty under the current system and perform as such, I don’t see a problem with it.
Obviously, if they’re a hardliner who is calling for revolution or saying derogatory things about the Queen, then it would be inappropriate but I cannot see someone who expresses such views getting into a position where they’d be considered for the job of Governor-General…
I think Sir William Deane is a republican. In any case, the ‘Governor Generalate’ is a part of our system and a republican should not have a problem with taking on the role. On the other hand, I don’t think Tony Abbott would offer the role to a republican.
I don’t think Tony Abbott would appoint a former politician to the role. I think a senior ex-armed forces man or a conservative judge would be the go.
Well there goes Sunday laffs over Abbott GG nominations.
Chillax, Serious People, we were just having a bit of fun FFS!
Why all the GG talk. Have I missed something?
Would probably be Cosgrove for that matter..
In other news Shane Watson has broken down, again.
Voleuse De Coeurs would have been the GG for sure if she hadn’t drawn so badly
@Sean/2615
At least were were getting some of the slice of the profits, under Coalition Party Goverment, that is now in doubt.
HUMPHREY B. BEAR FOR GOVERNOR-GENERAL!!1! LOL AREN’T I SOMETHING?/
Better?
[I doubt it will be John Howard. Bill Hayden aside, it’s not really received well to appoint politicians to that position.]
Particularly Howard. 🙁
Apart from the fact that he was so one the nose at the end of his Govt that he actually lost his seat from the position of sitting PM, he was part of the Fraser Govt that came to power after the Dismissal. He’s got form as far as the politicisation of the GG’s office goes.
As well, he was probably the worst Treasurer in living memory, and is still seen as a very divisive politician. He pretty much wrote the book on demonisation of identifiable groups in the community from time to time to serve political ends.
And it would make Abbott appear just so cringingly sycophantic and crawly. He’s embarrassing enough as it is FFS.
[HUMPHREY B. BEAR FOR GOVERNOR-GENERAL!!]
Would make for short speeches i guess. 🙂
As long as he wears pants.
[Better?]
He’s male, but you’re getting it.
In all seriousness nobody from the arts/theatre or media world has ever been GG….we have had judges/military/ a bishop and one woman…but nobody from our large artistic community…Thomas Kennelly(he would hate to work for Abbott)
Ita Butrose ?? who else
[As long as he wears pants.]
😆
And to cap it off, he’s Howard era white picket fence.
[a bishop ]
Given how well that one worked out is suspect Cardinal Pell will not be sticking his hand up for the gig.
In the role of G-G, we’ve had royalty, we’ve had a bishop, we’ve had plenty of knights and some of them might have been used as pawns. It’s time we had a rook as G-G.
Ah, jokes about chess: never esoteric or stale!
John Howard, the actor.
Saw him in T2 at Perth Airport about 6 weeks ago with a crew flying out somewhere. The film crew types certainly stood out amongst the FIFO crew.
[Thomas Kennelly(he would hate to work for Abbott)
Ita Butrose ?? who else]
John Bell.
Carey Moore –
Indeed. I agree.
As with many things republican we can learn much from Eire.
De Valera came to power in 1932 with a promise to abolish the GG ship. His first action was to officially snub James McNeill the last monarchist in the post and force his resignation.
George V was prevailed on to appoint Daniel Buckley who called himself Domhnall Ua Buachalla, and ran a corner store in Kildare. He was instructed to keep working in the shop and ignore all public duties. Acts of the Dail were sent to the shop for his signature. The post of GG effectively disappeared until the abdication crisis gave DeV the opportunity to abolish it.
Unfortunately I can’t see a Labor government following this example
[Unfortunately I can’t see a Labor government following this example.]
Nor should they, until the Australian people decide they want to change the current arrangements. We had a referendum on this and the monarchists won, thanks to Sir Phillip Cleary and his pals.
2642
That minimal amendment proposal did not address the question of the reserve powers. The powers of ministerial appointment and dismissal, and prorogation of the HoR and dissolution of Parliament should be transferred from the GG to the HoR and prorogation of the Senate transferred to the Senate with the power to call sittings shared. This is how to Kerr-proof the Constitution.
IDEOLOGUES WHO HATE TRAINS
_____________________
In the USA there are people who see the benefits of good public transport services,basically good long distance services across the continent…and there are the Reupblican maddies who would like to see the services of AMTRAK wiped out,,,or privatized
Though AMTRAK was built in the 1970 after the private companies walked away
The Federal Budget gives about $1.5 billion. P A to AMTRAK tp bridge the gap between basic requirements and income(passengers numbers have risen from 20 million to over 30 million in a decade)..but .some Republicans say that railways are a waste of money,and to cut back they should restrict thier excellent food services…all aimed to discourage the public from using them
The idea of state funding for transport angers the right-wing of the Reopublican Party so the whole notion of AMTRAK has a political side to is…unthinkable in say Japan or France or Germany
http://takeatrainride.blogspot.com.au/2011/11/enjoy-amtrak-dome-car-while-you-can.html
I tend to blame Ted Mack rather than Cleary – he had much more substance,
The example of Ua Buachalla was brought up by the SMH when Carr forced the NSW Governor out of the Vice-Regal residence in his first year in power. That created quite a controversy and Carr didn’t take it any further (typical)
I felt and feel there a two options. The minimal change option is fine provided the election is indirect and in effect in the keeping of the government. There is still the possibility of a Kerr but since then Governments have been very careful who they give the gig to.
If we have direct elections then the reserve powers need to be severely curtailed. Once again as per Eire the president has only two independent discretionary powers – to refuse a dissolution to a Taoiseach defeated in the dail and to refer a bill of doubtful constitutionality to the High Court. The taoiseach and ministers are chosen by vote of parliament and all other actions are on the advice of the government.
And look what you had in Ireland as a result of direct election – Mary Robinson swanning around playing international stateswoman when she had no mandate to do so, criticising her own government when she had no responsibility to raise taxes and the other unpopular things governments have to do. She was a walking argument against directly electing a ceremonial head of state.
Newspoll NSW Sep-Oct 2013 – 1279 Voters
Two Party Preferred: L/NP 57 (-4) ALP 43 (+4)
Primary Votes: L/NP 45 (-4) ALP 32 (+4) GRN 10 (0)
O’Farrell LIB: Approve 45 (-1) Disapprove 32 (-6)
Robertson ALP: Approve 31 (-3) Disapprove 31 (-4)
Preferred Premier: O’Farrell LIB 50 (-2) Robertson ALP 19 (-3)
The tables: http://bit.ly/HnYIcU
Re US railway journeys…The Most Scenic route across the USA
_______________
Those who might be planning a visit to the USA have many options for great rail journeys…perhaps the most scenic is from San Francisco to Chicago(or VV…3 days)crossing the Rockies.the Sierras and the deserts of Nevada, and Utah’s amazing stony mountains
Another route if from dreadful L.A across the south western states to New Orleans(3 days) …then after a stay in that great city n) …a one day/night journey up the Mississippi to Chicago and a 30 hour trip from Chicago to NY is also great
all long distance trains offer a variety of sleepers and spendid dining car services and observation/snack-cars too
Long may AMTRAK survive the right-wing maddies
On a recent 3 day journey our carriage attendant.. who was on duty for three day from Chicago-S.Fran… was a source of info…a life long unionist and railman and one with a fierce hatred of the Tea Party which he spoke of to me when he understood my views
http://takeatrainride.blogspot.com.au/2011/12/which-amtrak-train-offers-most-scenic.html
My preference is indirect election although I think you are harsh on Mary Robinson who actually took the job seriously and kept well within the Byzantine structures of the Irish constitution.
The real problem with the debate was that a large portion of the Australian electorate were incapable of understanding what it was all about and decided that if in doubt say no. Cleary and Mack added to this confusion and i believe tipped it over the edge – an opportunity lost for a generation.