Update (Thursday 6pm):
The contents of the post below, written overnight, have been dramatically superseded by today’s events. Firstly and most straightforwardly, Clive Palmer has been declared the winner in Fairfax by 53 votes. Secondly and more dramatically, the Australian Electoral Commission has made the bombshell announcement that 1375 verified votes from the original count, including 1255 above-the-line and 120 informal votes, have gone missing during the recount process. The AEC will proceed with a declaration tomorrow, but the initial balance of opinion among noted authorities (by which I so far mean Antony Green and Nick Minchin) appears to be that this will be the subject of a successful legal challenge that will cause the result to be declared void, resulting in the entire state of Western Australia going back to the polls.
The legal issues involved in this are beyond my pay grade (paging Graeme Orr and Antony Green), but I am aware of two precedents worth examining:
• On February 15, 1908, a “special election” was held in South Australia to resolve a protracted dispute over the result of the election of December 12, 1906. The Senate election system at this time simply involved voters crossing boxes of three candidates (in the case of a half-Senate election), with the elected members being those to receive the most votes. Naturally enough, most voters voted for the three candidates of their favoured party. Support in South Australia being evenly balanced between Labor and “Anti-Socialist” (hitherto identified as “Free Trade”), this resulted in six candidates receiving very similar shares of the vote. Anti-Socialist Sir Josiah Symon and Labor’s William Russell emerged slightly ahead of the field and were clearly elected, but very little separated another Anti-Socialist candidate, Joseph Vardon, and two Labor candidates, D.A. Crosby and Reginald Blundell. The Court of Disputed Returns resolved that Vardon was the winner by two votes, but that it would have gone differently had it not been for the failure of a returning officer to initial ballot papers. The result with respect to Vardon was consequently declared void.
There followed a dispute as to whether this constituted a casual vacancy to be filled by the state parliament, which the Labor-controlled parliament of South Australia sought to do by selecting one of its own, James O’Loughlin. This was challenged by Vardon in the High Court, which determined that under the legislation existing at the time it was up to the Senate itself to decide if a vacancy existed. A bill was then passed to have this particular matter and all future recurrences referred to the High Court, which concurred with Vardon that a casual vacancy did not apply with respect to a void election result, and that a fresh election had to be held specifically with respect to the third seat. This was duly held with Vardon and O’Loughlin as the only candidates, with Vardon emerging the winner by 41,443 votes to 35,779 (source: Psephos).
So while there is certainly a precedent for an entire state to go back to the polls for a Senate election, it was conducted in the context of an entirely different electoral system. Presumably a new election would have to be for all six seats, and not simply a partial election as was held in 1908. The Vardon matter also involved the question of casual vacancies, which does not apply here – in Vardon’s case, the result was declared void after his term had begun, whereas the term for this election does not begin until the middle of next year.
• The other precedent which springs to mind for a re-staging of a multi-member election was that which followed the state election in Tasmania in 1979. Under its Hare-Clark system, each of Tasmania’s five electorates returned seven members (now five). The result for Denison in 1979, which returned four Labor and three Liberal members, was declared void because three of those elected were found to have exceeded statutory limits on campaign spending. This caused a new election for Denison to be held on February 16, 1980, this time resulting in Labor losing one of its four seats to Norm Sanders of the Australian Democrats.
Original post:
That election we had a while back is still in a sense not over, with recounts continuing for Fairfax and the Western Australian Senate. While these recounts are shortly to conclude, there is unfortunately a fairly big chance that the next stop will be the courts.
• The WA Senate recount was, last I heard, scheduled to be concluded either tomorrow or on Monday. The recount could potentially overturn the election of Labor’s Louise Pratt and the Palmer United Party’s Dio Wang in favour of Scott Ludlam of the Greens and Wayne Dropulich of the Australian Sports Party if it closes a 14-vote gap between Shooters and Fishers and Australian Christians at an early point in the count (although Labor reportedly plans a legal challenge if this occurs). Rechecking of over a million above-the-line votes has inevitably turned up anomalies, most notably a bundle of several hundred votes that were wrongly assigned to the informal pile, eliciting a predictably hyperbolic response from Clive Palmer. It should be observed that such votes will only have the potential to change the result if they affect the vote totals for Shooters and Fishers and Australian Christians, which applies only to votes cast for those parties or those which fed them preferences (No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics in the case of Australian Christians, Australian Voice, Australian Independents and Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party in the case of Shooters and Fishers) – about 3.6% of the total. UPDATE: Oh dear – the AEC reports “a serious administrative issue” in which 1375 verified votes from the original count, including 1255 above-the-line and 120 informal votes, have gone missing. Nick Minchin, who had ministerial oversight over electoral matters during the Howard years, suggests the entire election may have to be held again.
• The Fairfax recount grinds on even more laboriously, owing to the Clive Palmer camp’s tactic of challenging literally every vote that goes against them, requiring them to be sent to the state’s chief electoral officer for determination. The tactic seems to have worked, because the recount process has seen Palmer’s lead steadily inflate from seven to 58. The ABC reports the recount should be concluded either by tomorrow or early next week. However, the Liberal National Party is reportedly set to launch a legal challenge against the result which, if the experience of the Victorian seat of McEwen at the 2007 election is anything to go by, will result in the Federal Court reaching determinations of its own on the status of disputed ballot papers.
• Meanwhile, Kevin Bonham comprehensively catalogues points at issue in the Senate electoral system and the relative merits of proposed solutions, and a piece from Antony Green on the South Australian Legislative Council system also has a lot to say about the Senate.
Actually, you can halve those numbers, because if we’re talking about people changing their votes, each vote lost by one side is a vote gained by the other.
[So its Carbon Tax Tony until July 2015.]
Zoomster If that happens won’t it mean extra revenue for Hickey’s budget bottom line. Who knows, perhaps Abbott is counting on it.
The Anonymous video to Campbell Newman is about as compelling, and as scary, as listening to a call of the Housie numbers.
Newman’s a wuss!!
[ Sean Tisme
Posted Sunday, November 3, 2013 at 7:12 pm | Permalink
Now he has to apologise for Labor helping the U.S spy on them using our embassy ]
If that is your position – it follows that abbott should withdraw from all such US related activities ?
abbott is not about to do that, neither is Labor.
But this stuff up has still blown up on abbotts watch – his responsibility to deal with it, it comes with the job. If he is not up to it then resign – the cheers will be heard in Jakarta.
Good luck with the no comment thingy with the Indons. They are not impressed with him anyway.
The thing abbott needs to apologise about is being a drop kick – not just to the Indons, but to Australians as well.
[I’d also be interested whether the GG would judge the repeal of a scheme which was going to lapse in a couple of months time anyway as justification for a DD…]
GGs have consistently asserted the right to consider the significance of the trigger bills but in practice have never really done so and I imagine they never would as it would embroil the sovereign in a political argument. (In other words, if the 1983 triggers were good enough…)
Victoria,
[Saw this on twitter
Nice parting thought from Laura Tingle… ‘Tony Abbott still must explain his expenses claims…’
#RortGate #Insiders]
As you know, Swannies’ favourite crooner is The Boss, Bruce Springsteen. However, you mightn’t be aware that Tones is more fond of Lou Reed and has just issued, in commemoration of Lou’s recent sad departure from this mortal coil, a cover version of the old Velvet Underground classic, “Sweet Jane”.
Sing along with Tones as he is accompanied by his backing group, comprising Don Randall, George Brandis, and a host of others, all racking up the folding stuff in a live gig in the back-yard of Don’s rental in Cairns.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrMLt9bMd_I
:- )
Standing on the corner,
Stickin’ out my hand
Applyin’ for allowances, in my fluro vest
Yeah me, I’m piggin’ in Can-do Land, hah!
:- )
Ridin’ in a highway cab rig
You know, these are prolific times
Made lots of claims up and down the coast
But it played havoc with my piles
:- )
Sweet claims! Whoa! Sweet claims, oh-oh-a! Sweet claims!
:- )
I’ll tell you something
This lark is a banker
A win, it’s a dead cert
Like travellin’ to the Birdsville Races
Chargin’ it up is such an easy lurk
:- )
Oh, when my arse’s on fire, oh!
From cyclin’ all the day
The soothin’ balm is there, man
When the allowances come my way
:- )
Sweet claims! Come on baby! Sweet claims! Oh-oh-a! Sweet claims!
:- )
Some people, they like to claim for weddin’s
And other peoples, they love to lurk
And there’s even some evil mothers
Who’ll turn ev’ry kind act into some self-centred perk
(Just watch me now)
:- )
Y’know that winners are always grinners
And that villains always dot the eyes, woo!
On the forms that are presented
Hey, does this come with fly-byes?
:- )
And, everyone who ever had a heart
Like mine, impossible to break it
Like chargin’ for attendin’ Melbourne Park
Havin’ to pay it back, don’t ya hate it!
:- )
Sweet claim! Whoa-oh-oh! Sweet claim! Sweet claim!
:- )
Heavenly wine and roses
Seems to whisper to me when I sign
“Try to keep up with the Joneses”
Seems to whisper to me when I sign
:- )
La lala lala la, la lala lala la
Sweet claim
Sweet claim
Sweet claim
William @2501 … and people wonder why Marginal Seats get so much largesse.
William Bowe@2499
William – thought you had discounted that analysis recently.
Didn’t you say recently Labor would need a 5% plus swing in 2016 to win ?
Isn’t the above suggesting otherwise ?
OK – 2016 will not be a duplicate of 2013 notwithstanding.
So, Rudd was running an espionage job in Bali at the UN Conference – nice work – the guy has more front than Myers.
I pity the poor intel ops who had to listen to the shit being spun.
My comment is true as far as it goes. I merely suggest that that isn’t very far.
Don’t forget we will most likely have a new GG in a few months. Quentin Bryce finishes her term in March 2014, then we get whoever Abbott wants.
This, people, is what you get when you take Mesma and Barnaby to an Indian wedding – approval for the largest coal mine in Queensland.
[The federal government has approved a massive coal mining project in central Queensland that will be the largest in the country.
Environment Minister Greg Hunt approved the 37,380 hectare Kevin’s Corner project on Friday.
The mine, to be operated by a joint India-Australia consortium, GVK-Hancock, is the first to be approved since the introduction of a new water trigger rule by the previous federal government]
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/largest-coal-mine-approved-in-queensland-20131103-2wuiw.html#ixzz2jZPPUiCq
GVK is owned by the grandfather of the bride at that wedding. Mesma and Barnaby were taken along to have a little private chat to him about what an Abbott government could give him.
William, thank you so much. 🙂
I think what William’s list shows is that no party should be complacent about the number of seats they hold.
O the joys of networking.
Access is power, and power is knowledge.
leone:
Yes, we were discussing that earlier.
Not only at the time did the press gallery miss that we’d paid the expenses for Barnaby and JBishop to attend the wedding, but I can’t recall the connection to the proposed mine being raised at the time.
Dr Andrew Leigh just refused to commit the ALP to going to the next election wanting to bring in an ETS.
leone@2511
Very hard to believe it won’t be a very in your face partisan appointment. Some pretty obvious candidates.
Then again abbott may prove me wrong and make a nation uniting bipartisan appointment which will warm the cockles of the nations hearts.
And pigs might fly!
Has anyone opened a book on who will be Abbott’s pick for next GG?
My odds are,
Twiggy 18:1
Gina 5:1
Clive 4:1
Gerard 3:1
Howard 2:1
Rupert 4:5
“Palmer runs various Coal Mines and a Nickel Refinery
Anyone who thinks he is going to block the Axing of the Carbon Tax is a moron”
Well, Sean, I think Clive Palmer would make outrageous demands of Tony Abbott (if the DD doesn’t occur earlier). He’s full of himself and talks as if he’s the prime minister, and wants to get back at the Libs for getting rid of him.
Oh, forgot a few,
Slipper 99:1
Ashby unbackable favourite.
“Has anyone opened a book on who will be Abbott’s pick for next GG?wiggy 18:1”
Anna Bligh would be a good choice.
If Palmer wants to make the repeal of the carbon price retrospective – and insists on compensation being paid to those who have paid it, as he has pledged – then it’s unlikely it will happen.
Al Dente —
Sophie Mirabella?
Susan Cremnan or Susan Kiefel from the High Court for next GG.
PvO still suffering from preciousness after yesterdays twitter spat. Lots of calling Andrew Leigh doctor and an “as a former professor”.
The reason for Clive getting the major shits with the LNP was GVK-Hancock being given priority development status for the rail line from the coal to Gladstone.
Clive had his own proposal knocked back and was basically told by Timmy to use Gina’s.
I forgot, Anna Bligh is not well. She has a nice demeanour and would do a great job.
It is true to say that if that many votes shifted in those seats then the election result would be different.
However the probability that those votes would shift *and no others anywhere else did* is negligibly small.
In order to have a good probability of seeing those votes shift the best estimate is that you would need to see a 4.5-5% swing in the electorate as a whole.
The sensible thing would be to make Marie Bashir GG. Non controversial. It may even start a welcome trend of rotating senior State Govenors to the GG job.
I suspect Tone will go with someone from a military background.
Maybe a church leader.
Fr Bob would be a hoot
George Pell for Governor General?
[I suspect Tone will go with someone from a military background.]
I suspect you are correct. A male of course.
My tip for Abbott’s choice of GG is John Winston Howard.
I suspect he is too busy working closely with Pope Francis.
Not sure but would a RC be allowed to be the Queens Representative
[Not sure but would a RC be allowed to be the Queens Representative]
Doubt it would worry anyone.
Marie Bashir would be t’riffic as GG! If not, I hear Jackie O is between jobs at the moment.
John Howard publicly ruled himself out for GG ages ago.
Let it go.
I’m betting it will be a female.
Knowing Abbott, Piers Akerman will be made GG.
ETS requires Australia to buy overseas carbon credits to meet Australia’s reduction targets.
What a joke.
Not sure but would a RC be allowed to be the Queens Representative
William Deane is a Catholic. Only the Monarch is not allowed to be Catholic or marry one.
ruawake – you know Abbott about as well as you know my left big toe.
Funny how all the Howard haters forget about Bill Hayden.
Fiona Stanley for GG
100% will be female, Compact Crank.
It’s nicer anyway. You get to see their lovely outfits and flowers, and Ms Bryce is feminine and gracious. Now that makes me sexist I suppose! I just think the glamour and colour on special occasions is really nice to see. Men can’t really carry that off.
[Fiona Stanley for GG]
Her husband is unwell with cancer I believe.
My understanding is the position is apolitical.
I think Hollingworth has cruelled the chances of a senior cleric being appointed soon, otherwise I’m sure Abbott would have loved to appoint Pell.
Is Abbott as wrapped up in khaki as Howard was?
One of the moderates from the HC would actually be a smart tactical choice, give the government another vacancy to fill.
[Funny how all the Howard haters forget about Bill Hayden.]
Actually some of our better GGs have been former pols, like Hasluck.
But a former PM seems a bridge too far, if you ask me, even if they were otherwise unobjectionable.
Dr Fiona Wood for GG!