Where we at

Those Fairfax and WA Senate recounts are finally set to reach their conclusions over the coming days. That may not be the end of it though …

Update (Thursday 6pm):

The contents of the post below, written overnight, have been dramatically superseded by today’s events. Firstly and most straightforwardly, Clive Palmer has been declared the winner in Fairfax by 53 votes. Secondly and more dramatically, the Australian Electoral Commission has made the bombshell announcement that 1375 verified votes from the original count, including 1255 above-the-line and 120 informal votes, have gone missing during the recount process. The AEC will proceed with a declaration tomorrow, but the initial balance of opinion among noted authorities (by which I so far mean Antony Green and Nick Minchin) appears to be that this will be the subject of a successful legal challenge that will cause the result to be declared void, resulting in the entire state of Western Australia going back to the polls.

The legal issues involved in this are beyond my pay grade (paging Graeme Orr and Antony Green), but I am aware of two precedents worth examining:

• On February 15, 1908, a “special election” was held in South Australia to resolve a protracted dispute over the result of the election of December 12, 1906. The Senate election system at this time simply involved voters crossing boxes of three candidates (in the case of a half-Senate election), with the elected members being those to receive the most votes. Naturally enough, most voters voted for the three candidates of their favoured party. Support in South Australia being evenly balanced between Labor and “Anti-Socialist” (hitherto identified as “Free Trade”), this resulted in six candidates receiving very similar shares of the vote. Anti-Socialist Sir Josiah Symon and Labor’s William Russell emerged slightly ahead of the field and were clearly elected, but very little separated another Anti-Socialist candidate, Joseph Vardon, and two Labor candidates, D.A. Crosby and Reginald Blundell. The Court of Disputed Returns resolved that Vardon was the winner by two votes, but that it would have gone differently had it not been for the failure of a returning officer to initial ballot papers. The result with respect to Vardon was consequently declared void.

There followed a dispute as to whether this constituted a casual vacancy to be filled by the state parliament, which the Labor-controlled parliament of South Australia sought to do by selecting one of its own, James O’Loughlin. This was challenged by Vardon in the High Court, which determined that under the legislation existing at the time it was up to the Senate itself to decide if a vacancy existed. A bill was then passed to have this particular matter and all future recurrences referred to the High Court, which concurred with Vardon that a casual vacancy did not apply with respect to a void election result, and that a fresh election had to be held specifically with respect to the third seat. This was duly held with Vardon and O’Loughlin as the only candidates, with Vardon emerging the winner by 41,443 votes to 35,779 (source: Psephos).

So while there is certainly a precedent for an entire state to go back to the polls for a Senate election, it was conducted in the context of an entirely different electoral system. Presumably a new election would have to be for all six seats, and not simply a partial election as was held in 1908. The Vardon matter also involved the question of casual vacancies, which does not apply here – in Vardon’s case, the result was declared void after his term had begun, whereas the term for this election does not begin until the middle of next year.

• The other precedent which springs to mind for a re-staging of a multi-member election was that which followed the state election in Tasmania in 1979. Under its Hare-Clark system, each of Tasmania’s five electorates returned seven members (now five). The result for Denison in 1979, which returned four Labor and three Liberal members, was declared void because three of those elected were found to have exceeded statutory limits on campaign spending. This caused a new election for Denison to be held on February 16, 1980, this time resulting in Labor losing one of its four seats to Norm Sanders of the Australian Democrats.

Original post:

That election we had a while back is still in a sense not over, with recounts continuing for Fairfax and the Western Australian Senate. While these recounts are shortly to conclude, there is unfortunately a fairly big chance that the next stop will be the courts.

• The WA Senate recount was, last I heard, scheduled to be concluded either tomorrow or on Monday. The recount could potentially overturn the election of Labor’s Louise Pratt and the Palmer United Party’s Dio Wang in favour of Scott Ludlam of the Greens and Wayne Dropulich of the Australian Sports Party if it closes a 14-vote gap between Shooters and Fishers and Australian Christians at an early point in the count (although Labor reportedly plans a legal challenge if this occurs). Rechecking of over a million above-the-line votes has inevitably turned up anomalies, most notably a bundle of several hundred votes that were wrongly assigned to the informal pile, eliciting a predictably hyperbolic response from Clive Palmer. It should be observed that such votes will only have the potential to change the result if they affect the vote totals for Shooters and Fishers and Australian Christians, which applies only to votes cast for those parties or those which fed them preferences (No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics in the case of Australian Christians, Australian Voice, Australian Independents and Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party in the case of Shooters and Fishers) – about 3.6% of the total. UPDATE: Oh dear – the AEC reports “a serious administrative issue” in which 1375 verified votes from the original count, including 1255 above-the-line and 120 informal votes, have gone missing. Nick Minchin, who had ministerial oversight over electoral matters during the Howard years, suggests the entire election may have to be held again.

• The Fairfax recount grinds on even more laboriously, owing to the Clive Palmer camp’s tactic of challenging literally every vote that goes against them, requiring them to be sent to the state’s chief electoral officer for determination. The tactic seems to have worked, because the recount process has seen Palmer’s lead steadily inflate from seven to 58. The ABC reports the recount should be concluded either by tomorrow or early next week. However, the Liberal National Party is reportedly set to launch a legal challenge against the result which, if the experience of the Victorian seat of McEwen at the 2007 election is anything to go by, will result in the Federal Court reaching determinations of its own on the status of disputed ballot papers.

• Meanwhile, Kevin Bonham comprehensively catalogues points at issue in the Senate electoral system and the relative merits of proposed solutions, and a piece from Antony Green on the South Australian Legislative Council system also has a lot to say about the Senate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,655 comments on “Where we at”

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  1. $1,500 per day for the audit people?

    The Liberals certainly are adept at the transfer of taxpayers money to their big business mates.

  2. JB

    Your jibe about effigies was done to death here yesterday.

    As many point out, the burning of a picture of Tony Abbott by a rat bag fringe is one thing.

    The actual inciting of physical harm by so-say law-abiding red necks – “chaff bags” et al, actually suggesting the demise of PMGJ, is another.

    So-say “respectable” Tories said and did nothing at the time.

    Your jibe falls on stoney ground unless you are also part of the “law-abiding” red neck group I refer to?

    Then again you guys do hypocrisy the best.

  3. poroti

    A NT relative of mine reads the Australian and possibly the local News. Asked me quite seriously this year “Do you believe in climate change?” as if it was some new rumour. Mind you, the family are business/LNP voters and have little interest in conservation etc. Husband made wife sell a new small petrol-efficient car and buy a bigger one. Just to drive around Darwin city. 😛

  4. Andrew Bolt, Piers Akerman and Miranda Divine;

    All peer reviewed scientists and among the most revered in the science world with the views on climate change.

    hahahahaha. Just people with an opinion. Opinions like theirs are like ar*eholes, everyone’s got one. Some just stink more than others, and boy, do they stink

  5. liyana@25


    So while Bruce Hawker was supposedly managing an election campaign, he kept a diary with a view to publication?

    Where does the ALP find these people? And why can’t they get them to sign confidentiality agreements?

    The way I understand things, hawker was on Rudd’s personal payroll/ retainer for a long time – at least the last 3 years.

    Rudd may have made him a government paid advisor when the became PM the second time, but I don’t know either way on that.

    He is a hired gun anyway and it will be interesting to see if his book are his own opinions or more from rudd.

    We will see I guess.

    PS – In an earlier life Hawker Britain advised James Hardie how to go about minimising damage and managing their toxic issues about asbestos. In a nutshell the advice was to do so via the media – specifically the businesses media in that instance – and it almost worked, right up to the end.

    Now what else does that remind you of ??

    Just saying……

  6. dave:

    Labor gave its official campaign review the other day, so Hawker’s release of his own campaign review is interesting to say the least.

    Just like Rudd, still running against the party.

  7. Under the previous Labor Government

    AUSTRALIAN intelligence reports show the Papua New Guinea agreement is puncturing the flow of Iranian asylum-seekers — the nationality considered most likely to be economic migrants rather than genuine refugees.

    Dozens of Iranian asylum-seekers on Manus Island have told officials they wish to return home rather than stay in PNG, a trend the government hopes will allow it to return some back to Tehran before the election.

  8. [ Just like Rudd, still running against the party. ]

    Still on the payroll, still dealing with a toxic substance and still giving the advice to use the media ?

  9. lizzie

    I don’t blame the NT people too much re climate change. The monsoonal weather and its timing is naturally pretty variable and so changes would be hard to spot. Add to that, when you are up there it does not take long to start feeling that the rest of Australia is a far off land.

    It would take something pretty drastic like the horrible Build Up lasting months longer or the Wet largely disappearing to get their attention.

  10. Labor policy working and the Liberals claiming the success as they have failed to gain agreement on their key policy of turn boats back.

    Australian immigration officials say another 28 Iranians, who had been sent to the asylum seeker detention camp at Manus Island in Papua New Guinea, have chosen to return home.

    The Department of Immigration and Citizenship says the group was flown to Teheran on Monday after voluntarily electing to go home rather than remain in PNG.

    It says this comes after four Iranians chose to go back to Iran last month.

    An official says asylum seekers who have arrived by boat since July the 19th are realising that they will not be settled in Australia and more are expected to return home.

  11. poroti

    Yes, I understand the distance thing. I have lived briefly in both Darwin and Qld and Melbourne/Sydney always seemed another world. But these people are very frequent flyers around Oz and the world and I expected a little more knowledge. 🙂

  12. http://theconversation.com/abbotts-belligerence-putting-in-the-boot-or-kicking-himself-19624

    [So far in the Coalition’s short period in office, we have witnessed: environment minister Greg Hunt get aggressive with a reporter from the BBC World Service; health minister Peter Dutton defend Abbott’s Washington Post interview; and immigration minister Scott Morrison aggressively defend his use of the term “illegals”, incorrectly citing it as warranted by the international legal definition and attacking “politically correct language”
    . . .
    With Abbott’s belligerence goes a lot of hide. But there’s also the very real possibility he will alienate a lot of people over a fairly limited time, as did Keating. After all, belligerence can leave voters with perceptions of ridiculous stubbornness or humiliating backdown.]

    Regarding Keating, I don’t know who he was referring to, but this phrase is brilliant IMO.

    “He is simply a shiver looking for a spine to run up.”
    (undated)

  13. Joe Blow

    [But, if someone had held up a nasty poster about Gillard, this thread would be humming, right?]

    Unless you’re condemning both protests, then you’re the one who’s being hypocritical.

  14. Tricot 54
    So strange that you don’t associate burning an effigy of the PM as in anyway inciting physical harm towards him.

    None so blind …..

  15. fred

    [Complete Labor Back down on climate change did not start in a vacuum, it required the NSW right.]

    There has not been a complete – or even a partial – backdown on climate change.

    Which is my point – whilst left leaning voters fall for lines like this, because they (apparently) WANT to believe that Labor is failing them, we’re guaranteeing the Libs stay in power.

    There is an element of the Left (and I’ve had it said to my face by Lefty MPs) who think that Labor has to attain some kind of purity to ‘deserve to be in power’.

    Labor is a political party. It does what political parties do. It represents human beings and is composed of human beings. To ask it to be ‘perfect’ – and ‘perfect’, what’s more, by the standard of whichever individual happens to be making the comment – is absurd and counter productive.

    In this case, the msm has fed you a line. Apparently you WANT to believe it, so you’ve accepted it without question – and you’re defending the msm rather than the party.

    There are plenty of ways you can bitch about the party without feeding into the “Labor isn’t perfect, therefore…’ meme the media and Coalition push. You can do what I did, the other day, and email Senators and MPs with your concerns, or write them letters, or ring their offices, or DM them on twitter.

    Which is far more likely to get them to pay at least some attention than emoting all over the internet.

  16. JB – nice attempted “look over there”.

    I see you do not attempt to defend the fact that ‘lornoder” tories were quite happy to close their eyes when PMJG was actually threatened by named individuals, with physical harm.

    Scratch many a conservative and find a nascent fascist underneath. They love law and order – especially when applied to their political opponents.

    Might have a live one here.

  17. Things that make you go Hmmmm!

    [Sand miner spent $91,000 in Ashgrove campaign

    A Stradbroke Island sand mining company spent $91,000 campaigning in the Ashgrove electorate after incumbent MP Kate Jones supported an end to mining on the island.

    Ms Jones was defeated in the 2012 state election by now-Premier Campbell Newman]

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/sand-miner-spent-91000-in-ashgrove-campaign-20131030-2wfxs.html

    [Newman vows to push ahead with sand mining on North Stradbroke Island

    North Stradbroke Island residents gather today to call for an end to sand mining on the island.

    Queensland Premier Campbell Newman says the State Government will press ahead with plans to extend sand mining on North Stradbroke Island to 2035.

    Sandmining was supposed to end in 2019, as detailed in the Quandamooka’s Native Title Agreement, but the Liberal Government is pushing to extend extraction laws to 2035, with legislation to back this expected next year.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-20/call-for-federal-regulation-of-sand-mining-on-stradbroke-island/4899368

  18. Lizzie – Tories do not do irony, only hypocrisy.

    Listened to Backdown Barney defending the live sheep trade this morning.

    All to do with “don’t rock the boat and over-react” and “need to know where the leak came from” stuff.

    That is, only react, when caught in the act and get away with as much as we can without people knowing.

    This government is into mean and tricky mode – which of course, is no surprise as Our Dear Leader is following in the footsteps of JWH.

  19. Badcat – you beat me to it.

    Of course, as Joyce mentioned on the ABC news, “Look let’s keep this all in context” with a sub-text: “Wait until I get hold of the mongrel who leaked this to the press.”

  20. zoomster 71

    I am condemning the hypocrisy. Personally I find burning effigies about the most disgusting form of protest.

    Compared with a ‘Ditch the Witch’ sign, I’d rate it a 9 vs a 5. One promotes killing someone, the other simply throwing someone aside. But I understand that others may think burning effigies are perfectly reasonable.

    I am neither defending or supporting either protest. They are what you get in a functioning democracy.

    I am simply pointing out that there is a large element of the left that attempted to claim the high moral ground regarding personal attacks on Gillard – claiming that male politicians were never attacked like this.

    These same people tend to be now absent from public comment when Abbott is being far more viciously attacked – the fact teh protest was about a Labor Party policy shows that the attack on Abbott is purely personal, not political!!

    I have no problem with people defending their preferred political views – but just be honest about your bias, and stop pretending that you are concerned about morality and civility.

  21. Re-the live export issue.

    Would those proposing to stop live animal export globally, based on one or two cases of mistreatment also propose to ban pets based on the 100s of cases of mistreatment and dumping of dogs and cats we see each year?

  22. There was a time in the US during the presidency of Ronald Reagan, that Democrats thought the dark times would never end. But they did.

    I sense we are seeing some dark times ahead with a reactionary right wing government in power. It is democratically elected but this does not mean it should not be opposed on everything it puts on the table.

    My worry is that election/politics fatigue has set in, most people really don’t give a stuff and want it all to go away.

    It is for that reason that Abbott will not chance his arm at a DD.

    Of course, his lust for power, the getting and keeping of it, is his most precious possession and he will not risk that.

  23. badcat and Tricot

    I was too busy to watch Barnaby this morning and perhaps it’s just as well. The report on Lateline last night brought me to tears, but at least they warned about the pics. Turned on ABC24 this morning and it went straight into a replay.

  24. Hola Bludgers

    I see that the Abbott Government supports large scale cruelty to Australian sheep in the financial interests of Australian farmers, Australian transport companies and, I presume, National Party voters.

    Joyce claims the system is working. Joyce meet Orwell. Joyce tells this bare-faced lie while Australian sheep are being thrown around, are having their throats cut on the footpaths of Jordan and are being transported live in carboots.

    I would hate to think how Joyce raises his children.

    What has failed here on an almost routine basis is the end-to-end monitoring of standards by the relevant exporters. Basically the monitoring controls fail almost completely when the Jordanian end consists of family live sheep traders and family amateur butchers.

    The next step by the Government has been to fob off the cruelty a departmental investigation. It was notable that neither Joyce nor Abbott were answering questions about live trade cruelty – democracy thieves at work. So much for a higher standard of governance.

    The next step for the animal cruelty campaigners will be for a referral to the RSPCA which currently officially supports the live trade but obviously on the basis of certain safeguards. These safeguards are not working.

    If the Coalition is not very careful it will succeed in destroying the live trade altogether.

  25. [Joe Blow

    Posted Thursday, October 31, 2013 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    Personally I find burning effigies about the most disgusting form of protest. ]

    ——————————————-

    I hate to see the burning of a flag of ANY nation ….

  26. Joe Blow

    Abbott was speaking out against JG and Labor under the ditcht the witch signs together with his fellow travellers. This student protest did not have any Labor MPs in attendance. Spot the difference?

  27. Joe Blow

    ‘Re-the live export issue.

    Would those proposing to stop live animal export globally, based on one or two cases of mistreatment also propose to ban pets based on the 100s of cases of mistreatment and dumping of dogs and cats we see each year?’

    Nice try at a unicorn and at fact manipulation.

    There were not one or two cases of cruelty to Australian sheep. A quarter of a million sheep were slaughtered for, I believe, Eid. Very many of those were transported in cruel conditions and were done by amateurs.

    I take it from the unicorn that you support the Coaltion’s decision to continue to allow mass cruelty to Australian sheep?

  28. Your hypocrisy JB, was that you were MIA when all that crap was happening to Gillard.

    I don’t seem to remember you, or many of the other tory cat-callers, castigating what happened to the then PM.

    Too late to come here and try the “I deplore what happened” stuff.

    Just rank hypocrisy on your behalf while accusing the other side of the same.

  29. [Tricot

    Posted Thursday, October 31, 2013 at 10:11 am | Permalink

    Badcat – you beat me to it.
    ]
    ————————————————–

    Only because you are 2 weeks behind us here in the east 😉

  30. See JB, sorry to mention it, but there you go again with your “look over there routine”

    The fact that domestic animals can be treated in the most appalling way does not somehow validate or “balance” what is happening to live animals on transit to slaughter.

    Both acts are unacceptable and one does not try to stop one, without necessarily being aware of the other.

  31. The Rabid Right does ‘thinking’:

    30% of the MSM, and 66% of Liberals believe that they know more than 97% of the world’s climate scientists are wrong. And all Liberal voters belive that 86% of the world’s economists are wRONg.

    Good luck with that.

  32. [ $1,500 per day for the audit people?]

    Beats giving emergency funds to mooching bushfire victims in NSW, apparently. If only part of your house was burnt, the government doesn’t deem you worthy of a few thousand dollars in assistance.

    What a sh*tty government.

  33. Badcat……How dare you!

    We are 20 years ahead of you as we have been living in Conservative Paradise for going on 5 years now.

    Get your facts straight please.

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