Shorten 52.0, Albanese 48.0

Late news: Bill Shorten to lead Labor after solid caucus vote win cancels out rank-and-file majority for Anthony Albanese.

Labor’s leadership selection process has concluded with a narrow win for Bill Shorten, whose decisive victory in the caucus vote was enough to outweigh rank-and-file support for Anthony Albanese. As foreshadowed in news reportage over the past two days, Shorten’s caucus support was in the fifties, at 55 votes against 31 for Albanese. The rank-and-file ballot attracted 18,230 votes for Albanese against 12,196 for Shorten. With each accounting for 50% of the total, the final score reads thus:

			Caucus		Branches	Total
Bill Shorten		63.95%		40.08%		52.02%
Anthony Albanese	36.05%		59.92%		47.98%

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,112 comments on “Shorten 52.0, Albanese 48.0”

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  2. CTar1

    Posted Tuesday, October 15, 2013 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    Bw

    s an Autobahn a big roofed building where you buy Autos at the checkout, and celebrate with a sausage with dead horse wrapped in white bread at the exit?

    If a sausage is available (with compulsory sauce) I haven’t noticed.
    ——————————————-

    I once had some German sausage ….it was the wurst….

  7. [Psephos – I think you’ll find the ALP changed the Presidential rotation at the last National Conference. Jenny McAllister is in the second year of her three year term.]

    Really? I didn’t notice – I was too busy running the country :). Thanks.

  9. I think Abbott will introduce the bill in the house quickly so it can be put on record that Labor voted against it. After that I don’t think he will care much if the Senate plays a delaying game on it.

  10. ST

    One of the symptoms is a complete lack of awareness that you have it.

    Your response just about proves that you have the condition.

  11. [Is an Autobahn a big roofed building where you buy Autos at the checkout?]

    Don’t make me explain the difference between the German bahn and the English barn. Please…

  13. Sean Tisme

    Posted Tuesday, October 15, 2013 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    I’m not farking Tourettes sufferer!
    ————————————-

    sean ….it doesn’t mean you don’t like going on travel for recreational, leisure, or business purposes…..

  14. psyclaw @ 1747

    You have correctly summed up Anna Burke and her disloyal behaviour.

    She was an appalling Speaker, just a little better than Jenkins.

    Perhaps Burke can now tell us all how she got the nomination of the Caucus to be Speaker.

    I hope faction voting wasn’t involved.

    She has hurt the party enormously just after a very successful Leadership campaign with many of us feeling a little more positive about the future.

    Just STFU, Anna.

  17. G

    ‘…exposure drafts of the carbon tax repeal bills…’

    That lot will go off to a Senate Committee which will recommend all sorts of sensible changes just in time for the sensible changes to be gazzumped by the new Senate in mid 2014.

  19. BW they will just do what Albanese was good at doing and restrict the amount of time allowed for debating. That’s the advantage of holding the balance of power.

  20. davidwh

    As more of the world are putting a price on carbon Australia will very likely find exports copping a tariff for such a lack. This could be particularly dire for trade with China. If that happens I think the fickle finger of public opinion will point squarely at Tones.

  21. dwh

    Not in the Senate before mid-2014, they won’t.

    And after mid-2014, Abbott will find he has to negotiate with a bunch of wackaloons who are far less predictable than the Greens and who will be twice as noisy.

  22. Boerwar

    Posted Tuesday, October 15, 2013 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    badcat

    I think I see why you eschewed coolcat.
    —————————————

    Boerwar ……. I ain’t chewing up any pussycats ….

    I like McDonalds much better 😉

  26. 2061

    Speaking of no speed limits, I saw that the NT is to have a trial of a return of no speed limit on a stretch of the Stuart Highway north of Alice Springs.

  30. I don’t see any mileage for the ALP, if they are going to be firm about opposing repeal of the carbon price, in delay tactics.

    Bring it to a vote. Vote it down.

  32. TTF&B

    I recall being a passenger (in the good old days) in a car in which the driver SLOWED DOWN in order to overtake on that highway.

    White knuckle stuff.

  34. Jackol

    Labor needs to do some work on separating the ‘carbon tax’ from the ETS.

    It also needs to ensure that it is placed as the party with policy integrity when it comes to AGW.

  35. davidwh

    [some of those barn conversions are pretty amazing.]

    I was just talking about going fast up-hill.

    Some response is much fun!

  39. Boerwar

    Posted Tuesday, October 15, 2013 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

    TTF&B

    I recall being a passenger (in the good old days) in a car in which the driver SLOWED DOWN in order to overtake on that highway.

    White knuckle stuff.
    ———————————-

    My friend Jack Goff has a beautiful ’63 split window Corvette – only trouble is its still L/H drive …. I can tell you sitting in the passenge seat with an idiot like him at the wheel and overtaking everything, not in HIS sight, is white knuckle stuff

  41. Michael Sainsbury from today’s Crikey

    ‘Foreign Minister Julie Bishop is in Tokyo today, but the real landmine in Australia’s regional defence relationships is not likely to be publicly discussed.

    What the minister knows, but is not widely understood, is that while last year’s defence White Paper publicly dodged anything controversial to avoid upsetting China, Australia has quietly been training soldiers for two of China’s main regional adversaries, Vietnam and the Philippines.

    Crikey can reveal that in the past five years Australia has trained close to 1000 military personnel from these two countries. China has been aggressively pressuring both in its breathtaking claim for most of the South and East China Seas.

    Along with Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s very public and fresh embrace of Japan last week as Australia’s “best friend” in the region, Bishop may have some explaining to do when she gets to Beijing on October 23.’

    There it is again. Abbott does bullshit in the China shop.

    Sainsbury lives in China and does the: ‘Little Red Blog’.

  42. Jackol ^

    [Bring it to a vote. Vote it down.]

    I think that is the best move. Even get it knocked over in November if possible. Then put the blow torch on Abbott to back up his tough talk and bring it back next February. See if he really wants to go DD on it. He won’t of course (and probably can’t due to the new Senate never having sat), but it will make him look impotent and running away from his former tough guy stance.

  44. [Tony Abbott calls on ‘pragmatist’ Bill Shorten to axe carbon tax

    Mr Abbott dismissed the new Labor leader’s repeated statements in support of pricing carbon, saying his government was “giving the Labor Party a chance to repent” on the issue.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-calls-on-pragmatist-bill-shorten-to-axe-carbon-tax-20131015-2vk5v.html#ixzz2hlkwv0YD ]

    On this basis, next week’s headlines will read:

    Tony Abbott calls on ‘pragmatist’ SBY to stop the boats, saying his government was “giving the Indonesians a chance to repent” on the issue.

    and

    Tony Abbott calls on ‘pragmatist’ Xi Jinping to stop the territorial dispute with Japan, saying his government was “giving the Chinese a chance to repent” on the issue.

  46. Williamson is a graduate of my old school. When we went there it was famous for producing Rugby League players. Now it is famous for priests with a penchant for buggery. Unfortunately academic results have never been its strong suite.

  47. Incidentally, lovers of the stupidity-of-war ironies would appreciate that Australia is now training the comrades instead of trying to kill them.

    Vietnam War, anyone?

  48. bad

    [s a beautiful ’63 split window Corvette – only trouble is its still L/H drive …. I can tell you sitting in the passenge seat with an idiot like him at the wheel and overtaking everything, not in HIS sight, is white knuckle stuff]

    Camper Kombie across Europe long ago.

    It was RHD so a ‘spotter’ required.

    Survived it.

  49. BW –

    Labor needs to do some work on separating the ‘carbon tax’ from the ETS.

    The time for this is long since passed.

    The section of the public that is ever going to perceive a difference, or care to listen, will already be informed. The section of the public that doesn’t care still don’t care and won’t care until reality slaps them in the face.

    Trying to make an argument about what is the ‘tax’ vs what is the ‘ETS’ is exactly what Rudd mark 2 was trying to do in his gormless promises on the issue. It will just be seen as spin to be trying to ‘define words’ and will serve no purpose.

    The ALP can say (and I think Shorten did) that if Abbott wants to bring forward the ETS the ALP will be happy to support the LNP supporting ALP policy.

    Abbott isn’t going to do that.

    Otherwise I think it’s time to leave the semantics behind and stand up for the carbon price, if that is what they plan on doing.

    Not to state the blindingly obvious, but there is room for arguing for an unpalatable policy in politics. The more it is perceived as unpopular (and I don’t really think there is that much aggro in the general public over this, even among those who casually say they might like to see no ‘carbon tax’), the more the ALP can say “look, we know that there are people who don’t like the carbon price – we’re not supporting our legislation because we think it makes us popular, we’re supporting the ETS, and have advocated for it since 2006 (or whenever) because it is the right thing to do”.

    If it is a second order issue for most people – and I really think it is – then a principled stand can work.

    Of course if a majority of the population really do hate the carbon price with every fibre of their being, then it will just look like arrogance. Them’s the breaks.

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