Seat of the week: Casey

Held since 2001 by Tony Smith, the outer eastern Melbourne seat of Casey flowed with the electoral tide from its creation in 1969 until 1984, but has strengthened for the Liberals.

Blue and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the Liberal and Labor parties. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Held by the Liberals without interruption since 1984, Casey covers Melbourne’s eastern suburban fringe at Lilydale, Kilsyth and Monbulk, together with the Yarra Valley townships of Yarra Glen, Healesville and Warburton and unpopulated Yarra Ranges areas further afield. The suburban areas are Liberal-leaning, middle-income and culturally homogenous, with an above-average number of mortgage payers. Outcrops of Labor support further afield coincide with lower incomes at Healesville, a “tree-changer” tendency around Monbulk, and a combination of the two at Warburton (the Greens outpolled Labor at the 2013 election at the Warburton booth and The Patch just south of Monbulk). Healesville and Warburton were added with the redistribution before the 2013 election, which further cut the Liberal margin through the transfer of Croydon and Ringwood to Menzies and Deakin.

Casey was oriented further westwards when it was created in 1969, extending northwards from Ringwood to Kinglake. The bulk of the modern electorate remained in La Trobe, the area having previously been divided between it and Deakin. Casey assumed approximately its current dimensions when the expansion of parliament in 1984 pushed it further east into the Yarra Valley, and the 1990 redistribution added some of its present outer suburbs territory. The seat has been in Liberal hands outside of two interruptions, from 1972 to 1975 and 1983 to 1984. The inaugural member was Peter Howson, who had previously held the abolished inner urban electorate of Fawkner since 1951. Race Mathews won the seat for Labor with the election of the Whitlam government, and after being unseated in 1975 entered state politics as member for Oakleigh in 1979. Peter Falcolner held the seat for the Liberals through the Fraser years, before being unseated by Labor’s Peter Steedman when the Hawke government came to power in 1983.

Steedman was in turn unseated after a single term by Robert Halverson in 1984, with some assistance from redistribution, and the seat has been in Liberal hands ever since. Halverson’s retirement in 1998 made the seat available as a safe haven for Howard government Health Minister Michael Wooldridge, whose position in Chisholm had been weakened by redistribution in 1996. However, Wooldridge only served a single term before quitting politics at the 2001 election, at which time he was succeeded by Tony Smith. During Smith’s tenure the Liberal margin broke double digits for only the second time at the 2004 election, but he went into the 2013 election with a margin of only 1.9% following successive swings and an unfavourable redistribution. He nonetheless retained the seat easily on the back of a statewide Liberal swing that pushed his margin out to 7.2%.

Smith’s entry to politics came via a staff position with Peter Costello, with whom he remained closely associated. After the 2007 election defeat he won promotion to the shadow cabinet in the education portfolio, but Malcolm Turnbull demoted him to Assistant Treasurer when he became leader in September 2008. Smith formed part of the front-bench exodus in the final days of Turnbull’s leadership, together with Tony Abbott and Nick Minchin, in protest against Turnbull’s support for an emissions trading scheme. He duly emerged a strong backer of Abbott in the ensuing leadership contest, and returned to shadow cabinet in broadband and communications. However, Smith was widely thought to have struggled during the 2010 campaign and was demoted after the election for a second time, this time down to parliamentary secretary level. With the election of the Abbott government he was dropped altogether, making way for the promotion of fellow Victorians Josh Frydenberg and Alan Tudge.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

723 comments on “Seat of the week: Casey”

Comments Page 2 of 15
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  1. [I hope the Libs just continue to ignore Labor like they did under the Howard years and i hope the left continue on hating like this for long term.]

    Netting on left hate is a pretty safe bet!

  4. [guytaur
    Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 10:01 am | PERMALINK
    rummel

    Its goose gander time]

    it is, but i think you will find the Libs don’t care what Labor say. I personally don’t mind what people say here about PMTA or the Libs, despite how hypocritical that makes team left posters here. Carry on Abbott Haters 🙂

  9. [(I am not claiming she did, I am just asking the hypothetical, since there is consensus here, apparently, that you cannot claim weddings).]

    I think if you think a personal invitation to a wedding is something the tax payer should contribute to that you need to have a deep think.

  10. [Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 10:05 am | PERMALINK
    Carry on Abbott Haters

    Please use the correct term rummel, as per Bolt: “Abbott Derangement Syndrome”!]

    Sorry, i have not checked in for a while at Bolt’s site 🙂

  11. guytaur and Gary and confessions and CTar1:

    Happy to discuss any individual backflip you want….so far no-one wants to discuss any.

    Just the blanket statement “they are backflipping, they are backflipping”.

    OK, up to you guys…

  14. [CTar1
    …I think if you think a personal invitation to a wedding is something the tax payer should contribute to that you need to have a deep think.]

    OK 1 vote for “Gillard should not claim”

    any others?

  16. Look I know Crikey performs a reasonably valuable community service by giving Mod Lib something to do with his/her life, but the sheer inanity of most of his/her posts, combined with their ubiquitousness, sure brings this blog down.

  17. [CTar1
    Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 10:08 am | PERMALINK
    None of those are backflips.

    Only flip-backs.

    No policies, no morals.]

    If there are no policies how can there be backflips?

  18. You want an echo chamber so you all can agree with each other that Abbott is bad for the next 6 years?

    That would be pretty boring IMO :devil:

  21. [Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 10:07 am | PERMALINK
    CTar1
    …I think if you think a personal invitation to a wedding is something the tax payer should contribute to that you need to have a deep think.

    OK 1 vote for “Gillard should not claim”

    any others?]

    I think the PM should live with full expense’s paid for while employed as the PM.

  25. This is a stupid conversation.
    As Mike Seccombe said, the PM always has an official car or plane to travels and it is taxpayer funder because it’s the PM. Not part of our current argument at all. In any case, for a manager to go to one of their staff’s weddings is a compliment and courtesy that the employee appreciates.

    Henderson then argued that Oppo Leaders should be given the same leeway. That’s the crux, isn’t it?

  29. lizzie:

    Liberals are trying to do obfuscation on wedding rorts. If it had been a Labor LOTO rorting with such blatancy you can bet they’d be screaming blue murder about it.

  31. Mod Lib@41

    So what do we think about Gillard attending an ALP staffer’s wedding (apparently….at least according to Phil Coorey on Insiders just now).

    We don’t know whether or not she claimed, but what is the PB consensus view now?

    It is unlikely she attended in an official capacity so she should not have claimed and I will be surprised if she did.

    It is not really hard to distinguish between private matters and official business.

  33. [confessions
    Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 10:14 am | PERMALINK
    lizzie:

    Liberals are trying to do obfuscation on wedding rorts. If it had been a Labor LOTO rorting with such blatancy you can bet they’d be screaming blue murder about it.]

    You mean like what happened when Gillard had to repay money….oh, hang on, that didn’t happen.

    Sorry for the interruption, echo chamber returns to full operational capability again….as you were!

  34. Rummell

    [Im laughing at all the Team Left hate… Talk about out of the blocks early and what about giving the PM respect and all that Labor went on about with Gillard? lol]

    It’s telling that you put an equal sign between criticism and hatred when the criticism is directed at bona fide breaches of public trust by the Liberals, but resisted putting an equals sign between criticism of Gillard and hatred when the criticism was merely about her treatment of Rudd or love of knitting or a troll based on whether a carbon price was in fact a tax.

  36. ML

    Wedding forts does not pass the pub test. As made official on Insiders this morning.

    You have lost this one. If you are in doubt, as always, see the cartoons

  37. “Centre left” on social issues and “Centre right” on economic issues!

    Hang on a second, I might vote for the ALP if they did that! :devil:

  38. [guytaur
    Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 10:18 am | PERMALINK
    ML

    Wedding forts does not pass the pub test.]

    Completely agree, I am asking about a different thing: whether you think such claims are legitimate or not, not whether the public will approve or not (they won’t).

  42. [Asthma inhalers: less than $20 retail, and usually free. Except in US, where they’re $175 each.]

    Quick, someone tell JulieB before she says any more rubbish about the Pacific Trade agreement.

  43. ML

    That is simple except for expenses occurred as part of your job (e.g. VIP jet because you cannot travel commercial) if its a state event you can claim expenses. If its not a state event, but is private then you can’t.

  45. The PM’s expenses are largely out of the PM’s hands.

    The biggest expense incurred as part of being PM would be the 24/7 protective detail. Wherever the PM goes, whether it’s private or personal business, involves these guys.

    It’s also why, as PM, cheaper options for transport and accommodation aren’t available. (I’m assured on good authority — because the guy lives in the electorate — that Gillard has never visited Mathieson’s hideaway in the woods because of the security risks it raises. I’m sure the expense of that is part of the consideration).

    A PM is a PM 24/7, whether they’re on public business or (like Howard and Janette) holidaying at the taxpayers’ expense in Broome.

  46. I think Mod Lib takes criticism of Abbott very personally, and remembers personal slights for years.

    Therefore I guess Mod Lib is either a female, or a male Scorpio.

  47. […are you seriously suggesting there has not been hate directed at Abbott here just about every hour for the last 4 years????]

    Are you seriously suggesting he’s not a clown ?

  48. Mod Lib@91

    Fran Barlow
    ….It’s telling that you put an equal sign between criticism and hatred


    …how about zoomster saying she “despises me” the other day?

    …how about this website:
    https://www.facebook.com/pages/I-hate-Tony-Abbott/269725524372

    …are you seriously suggesting there has not been hate directed at Abbott here just about every hour for the last 4 years????

    Abbott invites a certain contempt and loathing.

    But I would not go quite as far as hating him. I will settle for just holding him in contempt.

  49. ML

    [That was my question: do you think claiming public money would be acceptable in that case (I am not claiming she did, I am just asking the hypothetical, since there is consensus here, apparently, that you cannot claim weddings).]

    This misstates the consensus here. As I read it, the consensus here is that allowable expenses should realte directly to once public duties rather than private amusment/social obligations.

    Given the rancour earlier over your rather loose language — and your complaint about how that was dealt with — I believe you should observe greater care in characterising the positions of others who don’t share your cultural disposition in order to avoid offering evidence for those inclined to accuse you of trolling.

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