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| Blue and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the Liberal and Labor parties. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Held by the Liberals without interruption since 1984, Casey covers Melbourne’s eastern suburban fringe at Lilydale, Kilsyth and Monbulk, together with the Yarra Valley townships of Yarra Glen, Healesville and Warburton and unpopulated Yarra Ranges areas further afield. The suburban areas are Liberal-leaning, middle-income and culturally homogenous, with an above-average number of mortgage payers. Outcrops of Labor support further afield coincide with lower incomes at Healesville, a “tree-changer” tendency around Monbulk, and a combination of the two at Warburton (the Greens outpolled Labor at the 2013 election at the Warburton booth and The Patch just south of Monbulk). Healesville and Warburton were added with the redistribution before the 2013 election, which further cut the Liberal margin through the transfer of Croydon and Ringwood to Menzies and Deakin.
Casey was oriented further westwards when it was created in 1969, extending northwards from Ringwood to Kinglake. The bulk of the modern electorate remained in La Trobe, the area having previously been divided between it and Deakin. Casey assumed approximately its current dimensions when the expansion of parliament in 1984 pushed it further east into the Yarra Valley, and the 1990 redistribution added some of its present outer suburbs territory. The seat has been in Liberal hands outside of two interruptions, from 1972 to 1975 and 1983 to 1984. The inaugural member was Peter Howson, who had previously held the abolished inner urban electorate of Fawkner since 1951. Race Mathews won the seat for Labor with the election of the Whitlam government, and after being unseated in 1975 entered state politics as member for Oakleigh in 1979. Peter Falcolner held the seat for the Liberals through the Fraser years, before being unseated by Labor’s Peter Steedman when the Hawke government came to power in 1983.
Steedman was in turn unseated after a single term by Robert Halverson in 1984, with some assistance from redistribution, and the seat has been in Liberal hands ever since. Halverson’s retirement in 1998 made the seat available as a safe haven for Howard government Health Minister Michael Wooldridge, whose position in Chisholm had been weakened by redistribution in 1996. However, Wooldridge only served a single term before quitting politics at the 2001 election, at which time he was succeeded by Tony Smith. During Smith’s tenure the Liberal margin broke double digits for only the second time at the 2004 election, but he went into the 2013 election with a margin of only 1.9% following successive swings and an unfavourable redistribution. He nonetheless retained the seat easily on the back of a statewide Liberal swing that pushed his margin out to 7.2%.
Smith’s entry to politics came via a staff position with Peter Costello, with whom he remained closely associated. After the 2007 election defeat he won promotion to the shadow cabinet in the education portfolio, but Malcolm Turnbull demoted him to Assistant Treasurer when he became leader in September 2008. Smith formed part of the front-bench exodus in the final days of Turnbull’s leadership, together with Tony Abbott and Nick Minchin, in protest against Turnbull’s support for an emissions trading scheme. He duly emerged a strong backer of Abbott in the ensuing leadership contest, and returned to shadow cabinet in broadband and communications. However, Smith was widely thought to have struggled during the 2010 campaign and was demoted after the election for a second time, this time down to parliamentary secretary level. With the election of the Abbott government he was dropped altogether, making way for the promotion of fellow Victorians Josh Frydenberg and Alan Tudge.
Mod Lib@478
From Chris Bowen’s email:
[This historic vote which combines the votes of Labor Caucus with the votes of 30,426 Labor Party members – a 74% turnout – has changed our great Party forever and is already making us stronger. Since the leadership campaign started more than 4,500 people have said they want to join Labor.]
You apparently presume any who did not vote, for one reason or another, would have all voted against Shorten.
Do you see a slight problem with your logic?
Fran
They have probably punched your husband’s name into a database at that time.
I would have preferred Albanese to win, but I have no qualms with Bill Shorten as leader. He is probably the stronger candidate on balance, even if I’m more ideologically aligned with Albo.
[Australian Labor @AustralianLabor 2m
Important points: caucus voted on Thursday, before members vote closed on Friday. Member vote counted over w/e, caucus today. #LaborLeader]
“@senatormilne: Congratulations to Bill Shorten on his election to leadership of Labor Party. Look forward to working with you to maintain price on carbon.”
@Sean/499
Turnbull lost by 1 vote, and Coalition Party members did not get a vote.
#489
She still hasn’t a clue.
Everyone else in Australia knows there were c 30 k votes, but she’ll still argue on and on.
“@AlboMP: Congratulations to @billshortenmp on his election as #laborleader”
[psyclaw
Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 3:14 pm | PERMALINK
Bemused #472
Imprecise on numbers ……. Imprecise in words …… All in the cause of being a moving target!]
Oh dear, more egg on your face! No wonder you continue to avoid my question about whether or not you knew about Wedding catering being eligible for Meal Entertainment…..I think we all know why you are reluctant to answer!!!! There are only so many times anyone can fall flat on their face as you have this past week!!!!
Not my words:
[“Only about 1 in every 4 ALP members actually voted for you hardly a glowing endorsement!”]
“About 1 in 4” is different to “Exactly 1 in 4”.
12k in 45k is about 1 in 4.
Tisme, that you can’t do arithmetic and follow a simple formula is of no surprise to me.
50% members, 50% caucus in combination. Is that too hard for you or do you believe that you don’t already sufficiently appear a complete idiot and you can go further?
bemused –
If anyone ever respected Mod Lib’s opinion or logic before, this nonsense should put an end to that.
psyclaw@495
She should be made to wear a dunces cap and stand in the corner. 👿
Asha
I am in your corner! Though I do have some qualms about Bill and his ego.
Mod, is 20k out of 45k a glowing endorsement?
Good result for the ALP.
I feel sorry for Albo. I’m sure he is well-intentioned, but his biggest disadvantage was that he is still tarred with the Rudd brush, and it’s way past time the ALP (and also some PB’ers) moved on from all that crap.
I also think it’s a shame it took so long to come up with the obvious result, and thereby gave the Fruit Loop a month-long honeymoon he didn’t deserve.
[You apparently presume any who did not vote, for one reason or another, would have all voted against Shorten.
Do you see a slight problem with your logic?]
He stands at the dispatch box with only 12k ALP members having voted for him. Given there are now 45k ALP members (apparently, at least according to ALP insiders thats about the number), the statement “Only about 1 in every 4 ALP members actually voted for” Shorten is right.
Oops, egg on your fave again, Bemused! You must get so embarrassed!
MTBW@502
While Fran punched her husband … on suspicion of ideological impurity. 😛
Mod, you are not simply talking objective numbers, you have also used subjective descriptions such as “glowing endorsement”.
[50% members, 50% caucus in combination. Is that too hard for you or do you believe that you don’t already sufficiently appear a complete idiot and you can go further?]
So in Labors “democracy” a faceless caucus member gets the equivalent of 100 votes of a normal, fee paying member?
I suspect some of the rank and file Labor members will be asking why a handful of votes in caucus is able to trump thousands of their own votes in this new “democratic” system.
Oh course it is subjective!
Welcome to politics 1.01! :devil:
[12k in 45k is about 1 in 4.]
a) If 30,426 member ballots represents 74% of the total membership, then the overall membership is not 45K, but closer to 41K.
b) You can’t include members who did not vote in your total figure, because you don’t know who those people would’ve voted for.
Mod Lib – you are a waste of our time.
Oh, so you can do maths after all. Brilliant.
Probably 98% of Australians really don’t care who won the Labor leadership ballot.
The Liberal trolls are more concerned about the election of the Labor Leader than Labor people.
what a laugh that is!!
Jesus
Worry about my investments if these clowns are doing the math
bemused
I am sure Fran is a better person than that but we all have times when we do feel like doing it! 🙂
Mod Lib@521
Then stop with trying to turn around and argue you’re talking objective numbers when it’s clear you’re trying to draw subjective conclusions from the numbers.
[The Liberal trolls are more concerned about the election of the Labor Leader than Labor people.
what a laugh that is!!]
They are trying to get a rise out of people.
Mad Lib@509
Oh right.
Mad Lib wants to revolutionise our electoral system so that all informal votes or votes not cast get counted against whichever candidate she likes to choose.
😆
Nemspy@520
They had no say before. Spot the difference. It is now more democratic than it used to be.
[DisplayName
Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 3:21 pm | PERMALINK
Mod, is 20k out of 45k a glowing endorsement?]
18k glows brighter than 12k even if 55 votes beats 31.
So Shorten wins with 12,251 votes (12,196 + 55) to Albanese’s 18,261 votes (18,230 + 31)
[Mr Albanese attracted 18,230 rank-and-file votes to Mr Shorten’s 12,196.]
See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/new-labor-leader-about-to-be-revealed/story-fn59niix-1226739119670#sthash.AWo8ABmO.dpuf
@billshortenmp: First call to mum and the kids to tell them I’m new Labor Leader #thisislabor http://t.co/npxDhnvbK1
Kinkajou
It explains why so many “worker” Super funds are top of the heap. Not so many eleventy seven calculator Liberals involved.
It glows brighter but is it a “glowing endorsement”?
confessions
Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 3:25 pm | Permalink
The Liberal trolls are more concerned about the election of the Labor Leader than Labor people.
what a laugh that is!!
They are trying to get a rise out of people.
———————————————–
Trying to deflect attention from their own undemocratic party whose Leader is elected by faceless men and factions with the current Leader making back stabbing a feature
[bemused
…..Mad Lib wants to revolutionise our electoral system so that all informal votes or votes not cast get counted against whichever candidate she likes to choose.]
You are confusing not counting them with counting them “against”.
Easy mistake, I guess, but still leaves egg on your face for patronising me! :devil:
I wonder what K. Rudd is thinking right now after his new rules resulted in exactly the sort of outcome he designed them to prevent. Electing on of they key architects of his original knifing, no less.
[Mad Lib wants to revolutionise our electoral system so that all informal votes or votes not cast get counted against whichever candidate she likes to choose]
so after every newspoll they could announce that 99.99995% of the population think abbott is farked
Mod Lib isn’t trying to do that.
Mod Lib is trying to prove he/she is more clever than all us silly partisan hacks.
This idiocy of adding the 4.5k new members who couldn’t vote to bias a measure of the vote is just absurd.
Mod Lib “wins” because his initial statement is, as he/she says, literally correct.
The fact that it is meaningless doesn’t matter to Mod Lib.
Mod Lib got the reaction he/she wanted. I’m sure it was very carefully planned to drop in the “1 in 4”, sure he/she would be challenged, thinking “ah hah! I’ve got them beat! I’m so clever!”
Mod Lib is a waste of our time and contributes nothing positive to Poll Bludger.
Jamie Briggs giving Bill Shorten three tasks he must do.
Arrogant little twerp.
Will Shorten support quotas for seats for PBers?
#509 is a classic.
Where on earth does 45k come from when only 30 k voted.
Oh I see ……. 100% of the 15 k who didn’t vote were going to vote for Shorten.
I’d love to know her “research” area. Must be critical to mankind.
Apparently you can succeed in it with poor arithmetic, no logic, imprecise language and just the ability to write utter crap and spot unicorns. LOL
[DisplayName
Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 3:27 pm | PERMALINK
It glows brighter but is it a “glowing endorsement”?]
I would let you get away with saying a 60% vote in a national election is not bad. Glowing endorsement would probably be a reasonable description of such, so yes, 60% is a “glowing endorsement”!
“@AlboMP: About to hold media conference at Parliament House #LaborLeader”
More people voted for the Labor Leader than the number of people who voted for the current Liberal Leader.
ST and others – get over it. Your Party does not want you to have a say in the Leadership
[Tisme, that you can’t do arithmetic and follow a simple formula is of no surprise to me.]
Damn, someone must have put his shoes on for him again. 🙁
Poor petal.
Mod
“@PhillipMHudson: GG Quentin Bryce offered to retire early because of election of son-in-law @billshortenmp as ALP leader but @TonyAbbottMHR said no.”