Seat of the week: Kennedy

One of the election’s surprises was the tough fight Bob Katter had getting re-elected in his north Queensland family fiefdom of Kennedy.

Teal numbers indicate majority for Liberal National Party. Grey indicates Katter’s Australian Party. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy covers 568,993 square kilometres of northern Queensland, accounting for over 30% of the state’s surface area. It covers two disconnected coastal areas, one being a 250 kilometre stretch of the east coast from the southern suburbs of Cairns through Innisfail to Toomulla 35 kilometres north Townsville, the other being the thinly populated Gulf of Carpentaria coast from the Northern Territory border to the southern part of Cape York Peninsula. The remainder encompasses rural and outback territory including Mount Isa and most of the Northern Territory border.

Kennedy was one of 16 seats out of 75 which Labor won at the first federal election in 1901, and it remained in Labor hands until Nationalist candidate Grosvenor Francis was elected unopposed after sitting member Charles McDonald died during the 1925 election campaign. This prompted the change in the Electoral Act which causes the poll for a given electorate to be cancelled and held at a later time if a candidate dies during the campaign, which most recently had effect in Newcastle at the 1998 election. Francis retained the seat at the 1928 election, but it returned to Labor when Jim Scullin’s government came to power in 1929. It next changed hands in 1966 when the national anti-Labor swing combined with the loss of retiring veteran William Riordan’s personal vote delivered a narrow victory to the Country Party candidate, Bob Katter Sr.

Katter’s majority increased at each of the next five elections, and he was further boosted when the 1969 redistribution removed Labor-voting Bowen and added Charters Towers. The 1984 redistribution was less kind, returning the seat to the marginal zone by pushing it into the southern reaches of the Cape York Peninsula. It returned to Labor for one term when Katter retired in 1990, the winning member being Rob Hulls, later to return to politics in Victoria as a senior figure in the Bracks-Brumby government. Hulls was defeated at the 1993 election by Bob Katter Jr, who had represented the local area in state parliament since 1974. Katter cemented his position with a double-digit swing in 1996, and his primary vote increased further after he parted company with the Nationals ahead of the 2001 election.

Katter comfortably topped the poll at next three elections, although he faded from 47.1% to 39.5% in 2007 before rebounding to 46.7% in 2010. The 2010 election result left him as one of three rural independents holding the balance of power in a hung parliament, and he appeared to play the most adroit game of the three in unenthusiastically declaring his hand for the Coalition after the determination of the other two to back Labor had rendered it a moot point. He then set about expanding his political empire with the establishment of Katter’s Australian Party, which polled 11.5% at the Queensland state election of March 2012 amid a collapse in support for Labor and elected two members: his son Robbie Katter to the seat of Mount Isa, and former Liberal National Party member Shane Knuth to his existing seat of Dalrymple.

However, the rise of Katter’s Australian Party was firmly checked at the 2013 election, at which its vote across Queensland was just 3.7% and its bid to get country singer James Blundell elected to the Senate was singularly unsuccessful. Most disappointingly of all for the party, Katter struggled to win re-election in Kennedy for the first time, his primary vote down 17.4% to 29.3% against 40.8% for Liberal National Party candidate Noeline Ikin, the former chief executive of the Northern Gulf Resource Management Group. Katter prevailed after preferences by a margin of 2.1%, down 16.2% from 2010. The poor performance was variously attributed to the advertising budget and related electoral success of the Palmer United Party, and a poorly received preference deal with Labor. The terms of the deal delivered Labor preferences to Blundell in the Senate, and Katter preferences to Labor in six Queensland lower house seats it was desperate to win, though in no case would it do so.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,264 comments on “Seat of the week: Kennedy”

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  2. Thomas
    [Now she is out there sympathy seeking and trying to paper over her backstabbing of Rudd as somehow being OK, but her dumping because she was taking Labor to oblivion somehow not OK. dishonest and Hypocrisy writ large in Gillard. ]

    Not at all. Rudd had lost support of the caucus and was losing the support of the voters. She acted in the party’s interest in challenging him. OTOH, Rudd and his henchmen spent three years white-anting Gillard for selfish, vengeful reasons and damaged the party enormously in the process. That is the difference. Gillard good. Rudd bad.

    And it’s interesting that anti-Gillard Bludgers such as you and bemused keep jumping on the speech she had supposedly requested two weeks before she challenged Rudd as though it is a fact. She denies it. What is your evidence for it?

  3. DisplayName, Boerwar – I’m sure davidwh was being a bit cheeky as is his wont. I’m sure he’s well aware of Abbott’s approach to boats.

  6. [So much rage here ! It was only an election guys.]

    I think you’ll find the rage is rapidly morphing into derision. I have very clear memories of the changes of government in 1972, 1975, 1983, 1996 and 2007. This is by far the worst managed. Whitlam was pretty rocky, but he at least had the excuse of being the only new government in the history of the Commonwealth in which no-one had ever held office before. By contrast, all the senior members of this government are former Cabinet ministers. I’m frankly astonished. Despite everyone knowing for at least a year that the Coalition was going to win the election, it’s as if they’ve made no preparations at all for government.

  7. davidwh@3143

    We do need to see some consistent improvement in confidence.

    dwh you are so much more lenient when it comes to L/NP than you were when ALP were in government. And there I thought you were not big fan of TA. They need to perform waaaaaaaay better than expected if we are to see the improvement in confidence. If Hockey’s presser the other week is any guide of what is to come, we are in deep s**t.

    TA and JH have trashed our economy for so long so they have only themselves to blame for low confidence.

  8. J

    Dwh left out turning back the boats.

    The Indonesians have just won, game, set and match against the Australian Amateur A Team.

  9. Triton

    [2925
    triton
    Posted Tuesday, October 1, 2013 at 10:04 am | PERMALINK
    shellbell, any cyclones brewing off the coast at the moment?]

    I can barely muster a little white fluffy cloud.

  10. [DisplayName, Boerwar – I’m sure davidwh was being a bit cheeky as is his wont. I’m sure he’s well aware of Abbott’s approach to boats.]

    Liberals just sweep aside facts as it suits them. It might have been ‘a bit cheeky’ today, but it will grow and develop until they can say with hand on their hearts that ‘stopping the boats was never a promise’ and pass a lie detector test.

    Cults are mild and mostly harmless compared to liberal lies.

  12. Great that Franklin joins the Swans.

    Any other stars available?

    They should all join the Swans.

    The Swans should be allowed to buy as many stars as they wish so they can make the next three grand finals and at least win two of them.

    Then most of all – they must be loved 😀

  15. [3123
    guytaur
    Now Abbott denying he ever campaigned on tow backs]

    I give it 6 months tops, before he has repudiated or seriously modified beyond recognition, the vast majority of his policies (such as they exist).

    Interesting to see what they really end up doing with the NBN. That story is far from over yet, with clear signs that they are dealing themselves a(nother) get-out-of-jail-free card.

    The three they are most likely to stick to are Direct Action (mostly as it is a non-policy requiring little action at all), bending over for the rich and powerful (both domestic and foreign), and welfare bashing (just to prove what big tough heroes they are).

  16. very happy that I renewed my lapsed Sydney Cricket Ground membership last week. Mostly did it to go to the Ashes Test.

    But now, I will be able to see the Swannies dominate with Buddy Franklin and Kurt Tippett up front.

  17. Anyone got today’s Essential Media poll? I know that it shows a rise in support for Direct Action but that’s it.

    The ALP leadership process is going extremely well in my opinion. I’d prefer Albo to win but it’s very reassuring to know we’re going to get a real contest against the Coalition this time regardless of who wins the ballot.

  18. Adam, Abbott made 6 promises and he’ll be judged on those in due course.

    He’ll get a fair chance from the public to deliver – but rightly will lose if he fails to do so. That verdict wont be in for months not days as some of the hopeful on here have judged.

    But what about you? Are you signing up for another tour of duty in Club Fed or not?

  23. Abbott made 6 promises and he’ll be judged on those in due course.

    Six? I only counted 2 that could be reasonably assessed – repealing the carbon price/MRRT and stopping the boats.

    I hope you’re not referring to his stupid advertising bullet points.

    You think he can be held to 2 million jobs over 10 years?

    Or “diversifying the Australian economy”?

    What do you think were the 6 core promises of the election?

  25. But Boer we love the Storm up here so much.

    I mean we even kicked out North Sydney, and South Sydney were banned for two years just so we could adore the things that go round in a yucky purple jumper every week.

    All that on top of rorting your way to 3 grand finals for 2 wins.

    Course we love the Storm and you would love the Swans just as much.

  26. Jackol was most accurately correct. I was being cynical.

    DN yes I am fully aware of promises Abbott has made that will be very hard to deliver. Basically all his key promises will be difficult to deliver on. It’s why there is an even chance this will be a one-term government.

  32. “@Colvinius: Zing “@SimonThomsen: Nice work by the GOP in the US, making Italy look like it has stable government””

  35. Regardless of their political ideology, I can’t believe some here are seriously trying to claim the last few weeks have gone well for Abbott.

    Forget winning in 2016. On his performance so far, Abbott will be lucky to still be PM twelve months from now. Incompetent and negligent beyond what even a cynical biased lefty like me had expected. Even the fawning media seems to have woken up to what a dud he is.

  38. From Crikey

    [On voting intention, the government is on 43%, Labor on 36% (down 1) and the Greens on 9%. Others are on 12%; the 2PP outcome is 52-48%.]

  40. On secrecy

    [But voters disapprove of Scott Morrison and Tony Abbott’s new approach of hiding information about asylum seeker boat arrivals. That policy became even sillier in yesterday’s second “briefing” about boat arrivals, in which Morrison and his acting man in uniform both confirmed the arrival of a boat the previous night despite it falling outside the “reporting period”. Some 48% of voters disapprove of hiding the information, but there’s still a strong air of partisanship: 67% of Coalition voters are supportive of the policy, while 75% of Labor and 74% of Greens voters oppose it.]

  42. “@mychalsmith: House GOP refuses to work and doesn’t wanna pay bills. i don’t wanna hear shit about lazy black people ever again.”

  44. spur212@3167

    Anyone got today’s Essential Media poll? I know that it shows a rise in support for Direct Action but that’s it.

    The ALP leadership process is going extremely well in my opinion. I’d prefer Albo to win but it’s very reassuring to know we’re going to get a real contest against the Coalition this time regardless of who wins the ballot.

    G’day spur212, good to see you again.

    I agree on the ALP leadership process and of course prefer Albo. But my attitude to Shorten was softened a little last night while watching Q&A when he reminded us that he did not participate in the trashing of Rudd’s reputation and did not agree with it.

  45. On climate change policy

    [Support for carbon pricing, which in May had reached level pegging with opposition to it, has now fallen to 39%, with opposition up to 47%. Age and voting intention are strong indicators for those positions: younger voters, Labor and Greens voters back carbon pricing; older and Coalition voters oppose it. And voters have reversed their hostility to Greg Hunt’s Direct Action plan, in which bureaucrats will pick carbon abatement projects to hand grants to. In May, voters preferred carbon pricing over Direct Action 39-29% — but now favour the latter 35-31%.]

  48. “@OFA_Jarryd: “If Obama can make a deal with Iran, but not Republicans, maybe he’s not the problem.”- #JonStewart #TDS”

  50. “@edatpost: BREAKING: OMB instructs agencies to “now execute plans for an orderly shutdown due to the absence of appropriations.””

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