Seat of the week: Indi

A review of the circumstances which caused Tony Abbott to enter the government formation process a female cabinet minister short.

Bordered to the north by the Murray River, the electorate of Indi covers an area of northern Victoria including Wangaratta, Benalla and the border town of Wodonga. It produced one of the biggest boilovers of the 2013 election with the defeat of cabinet minister-in-waiting Sophie Mirabella at the hands of conservative independent Cathy McGowan, whose win marked the first time since 1931 that the seat was not in the hands of one of the main coalition parties. Indi has existed without interruption since federation and only ever won by Labor in 1910, 1914, 1928 (when Labor’s Paul Jones was elected unopposed after Country Party incumbent Robert Cook forgot to nominate) and 1929, from which time it shifted decisively to the conservatives. It was thereafter fought over between the Country Party and the Liberal Party (together with its predecessor the United Australia Party), the member from 1937 to 1949 being Country Party titan John “Black Jack” McEwen, who moved to the new seat of Murray with the expansion of parliament in 1949. The Nationals last held the seat in 1977, when their incumbent Mac Holten was defeated by Liberal candidate Ewen Cameron on Labor preferences. The Nationals contested in 2001 when Cameron’s successor Lou Lieberman retired, but managed only 12.3%.

The new Liberal member in 2001 was Sophie Panopoulos, a barrister and Australians for Constititutional Monarchy activist. Panopoulos married in 2006 and assumed her husband’s surname of Mirabella. Mirabella became noted for her aggressive parliamentary style, and was promoted to shadow cabinet in the innovation, industry, science and research portfolio when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009. McGowan’s challenge to Mirabella arose out of a local activist group called Voice for Indi, which initially declared itself set on “improving the political process in the electorate” rather than mounting an electoral challenge. The group says it resolved to field a candidate after Mirabella gave their concerns short shrift, informing them that the real concerns of her constituents aligned with her party leader’s oft-repeated soundbites.

The candidate nominated by Voice for Indi was Cathy McGowan, a rural affairs consultant and former regional councillor for the Victorian Farmers Federation who had once worked for Liberal member Ewen Cameron. With McGowan to rally behind, the organisation proved adept at fund-raising and use of social media, and it soon became apparent that it was succeeding in tapping into a perception that Mirabella was a Melburnian careerist with an insufficient connection to the local area. McGowan’s profile was further lifted when retiring New England independent Tony Windsor told the ABC’s Insiders program that the “nasty” Mirabella was the person he would least miss in politics, and that McGowan was an “excellent independent” whose campaign he might lend support.

Also lending McGowan support was Ken Jasper, who served Wangaratta and surrounding areas in state parliament for 34 years, retiring as member for Murray Valley at the 2010 election. McGowan appeared to benefit from friction between the coalition parties spilling over from the contest for Mallee, which the Liberals were seeking to win upon the retirement of Nationals member John Forrest. Reports indicated that local Nationals had been quietly told they would not face disciplinary action if they lent support to McGowan.

McGowan went on to prevail after polling 31.2% to Mirabella’s 44.7%, which was down from 51.8% in 2010. This left McGowan well clear of the Labor candidate on 11.6%, down from 28.2%, and she was narrowly able to close the primary vote gap after picking up 79% of Labor and minor party preferences.

NB: Hat tip to Ben Raue at The Tally Room, whose Google Earth maps I’m using for the electoral boundaries displayed in the map above. Raue does tremendous work on his blog and deserves donations. Note also that you can get a slightly bigger image of the above map by clicking on it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,337 comments on “Seat of the week: Indi”

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  1. [The Premier admitted in a weekend interview that the $1.9 billion MAX light-rail and $2 billion airport rail projects would likely be pushed back up to two years because WA had lost its AAA credit rating from Standard & Poor’s.

    The projects were promised to be delivered by 2018 in the election campaign, but the time frame slipped to 2019 in last month’s State Budget.

    Now Mr Barnett says they could be delayed a further two years. He said voters would understand, in the same way that they understood the Government had to push back building the new football stadium after the global financial crisis.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/19078193/labor-fury-at-rail-plan-delays/

    What can one say? Light rail and improved public transport is hardly comparable to a football stadium IMO.

  2. mari
    Yes, the countdown proceeds.

    It all happenned in a bit of a hurry because son and wife in Canberra will be having a child in March next year and, as the piece de resistance, our daughter is also pregnant and due in April. So it was a “now or never” decision.

  3. A quick pursue of some of the late night post reveled this pierce of rubbish.
    paaptsef
    Posted Monday, September 23, 2013 at 11:35 pm | PERMALINK
    GILLARD Government debt levels are forecast to blow out by 80 per cent to $165 billion in this term alone – equal to more than $14,000 for every working Australian.
    http://www.news.com.au/national-news/julia-gillard-to-leave-australians-in-165-billion-dollars-worth-of-debt-this-term-alone/story-fncynjr2-1226607170108
    An incoming Coalition government will lift the $300 billion debt ¬ceiling as one of its first acts
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/hockey_to_raise_debt_ceiling_aQmYFEr1XBGVjDX8lAVagN
    So Joe and Abott have now put every put every working Australian in to well over 20,000 dollars debt.

    What I wish to know is why is debt attributed to each of us on a per head basis but the income and assert are not

    If you wish to see entities that are highly leveraged just go and look at the Balance Sheets of some of our largest Companies particularly our miners. In the real world of business this high leveraging is consider “good business” and has been shown many times to lead to the creation of much wealth.

    But alas we get this sort of economic mumbo jumbo that appear to be written by people that don’t even know the difference between a debt and a credit let alone an assert and a liability or income and expense.

    Why is it that those who know least about any subject are the ones who shout the loudest on that topic and why do so many take any notice.

    Why is debt considered bad particularly in this country where the “dream” of most of us is to own a house on a quarter block with a swimming pool a wide screen TV and the latest mode of the car of our choice. All of which the vast majority of us will need to take on debt to acquire.

    For an individual the one rule for debt is “can the borrower service the loan”.

    For a business not only must the loan be serviced but it is preferable that whatever the borrowings are in aid of generates a positive NPV.

    For Governments the requirements are different. A lot of what Governments do, don’t generate funds. However, there are other returns that the Government (read community) gets that must be provided. Health and education are just two that in the long term pay massive dividends both in monetary and non monetary terms to society and the individuals involved.. But there is still the requirement to service the borrowings and a debt of 10% of GDP is easily serviced by most governments. We have countries with much higher rates of debt servicing their borings with little or no problem. The Greece’s of this world are few.. To gauge how well Australia is doing just check out the yields on Australia’s bond issue see http://www.asx.com.au/education/investor-update-newsletter/201302-how-exchange-traded-australian-government-bonds-will-work.htm chart 1 for a graph on yield.

    Debt is neither good nor bad in itself. It is what it is used for that determines it value to individuals and society.

  4. lizzie:

    I am hopeful that the public remaining ahead of the govt on addressing AGW will either a) force some sense into Abbott’s mob to keep carbon pricing, or if not, b) cause them serious pain at the ballot box.

  5. Lizzie

    [What if it’s all a hoax?]

    The cartoon is apt, though the banner might have included resource depletion, global social justice, prevention of forced displacement etc …

  6. BK 1053
    How wonderful congratulations to the grandparents to be. You will certainly want to be around for these events Just have a great time overseas as I know you will

  7. BK:

    Congratulations! A friend of mine who has spent goodness knows how many years on IVF has just announced she and her husband are going to have their first child in March.

  8. [Hermes Trismegistus ‏@conarelli 2m
    Q) How many climate sceptics does it take to change a lightbulb?
    A) None. It’s too early to say if the lightbulb needs changing. #abbott]

  9. morning all

    Lizzie

    I watched qanda. Suzuki was supposedly the only guest, but those people in the audience who challenged him may as well have been on the panel. They were obviously there to challenge him on the climate modelling and GMO. It would have been more genuine had they been sitting at the tabke with him, rather than going him from the audience. No wonder i gave up on qanda.

  10. victoria

    I agree. Usually it’s just one question from an audience member, but the rules were bent so they could express their opinion (at length) and argue with Suzuki.

    Will you try again next week – Albo and Shorten? Or wo’t you bother.

  11. Socrates

    Posted Tuesday, September 24, 2013 at 8:01 am | Permalink

    Kudos to Colin Barnett for raising the need to reform and raise the GST. That is an example of the sort of reform Labor squibbed while in office. If Abbott and State premiers are careful about the way the debate is handled, it will enable them to fund much better service delivery. Labor proposed the various service improvements, but not the means to pay for them.
    =========================================================

    Colon doesn’t want the GST increase to fund better service deleivery.

    He NEEDS the money to start reducing the debt he has. In 4 years he has added $25 billion to WA debt. Lost WA’s Triple A rating

    Despite increased royalties from mining, increased state taxes and increased utility charges

  12. [Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 6m
    Waiting for the tea party types to suggest a donation model for police, health care, aged care, education, indigenous assistance. #loopie]

  13. “@666canberra: Mike Kelly: lot of people have urged me to consider NSW Senate seat if available; I could prosecute ALP case on security policy against govt”

  14. [Rob Oakeshott
    @climatecouncil I just signed up as founding friend of the Climate Council climatecouncil.org.au Why? Because I love Australia.]

  15. The silence in the media and generally regarding the Abbott CoF borrowing more money after all their rants about “irresponsible government” and budget ’emergency’ shows the true purpose of the media in Australia

  16. guytaur

    That would be my guess also.

    Bob Carr is going to move on, and Mike Kelly would be a much needed voice in the senate. No doubt about it. Hope it comes to fruition.

  17. I recorded #QANDA to see Suzuki. I will have a look this morining.

    In other news … I clipped my first rose at my new house. It’s stunning, IMO.

    https://twitter.com/fran_b__/status/382270826923311104/photo/1

    Since September 7 I’ve been wondering about what to call the Abbott-led regime. Using his name doesn’t adequately characterise a regime conceived in malice and bent on reckless destruction of worthy public policy.

    I’m toying with the idea of naming them The Vandal Regime but as the Vandals were once a people and possibly unfairly maligned, (like the Philistines and “barbarians”) I’m looking for a better term. Morlocks — being an invention of H G Wells — seems safer and does have that ironic twist in it — that they were degenerated humans. On similar grounds — Orcs — being degenerated elves. Any suggestions?

  18. AA

    Could you imagine if it was a labor govt who had made the announcement that Morriscum did yesterday? And if it was Labor who had increased borrowings to this amount?

    I can just imagine the headlines. Never mind the ABC, Sky and commercial stations. And what about shockjock radio!!

    Which makes me wonder. What the heck are the shockjocks going to whinge about now on behalf of their demented listeners.

  19. victoria

    At the moment they’re busy defending the climate deniers – making martyrs of them. Probably attack pushbike riders next (Just guessing).

  20. guytaur

    [The way they are going against science The Taliban would work]

    and the moralism too … 😉

    The problem is that The Taliban are an official enemy and more often adduced by the right than the left. It’s incipiently xenophobic and would require some explanation to separate ourselves from the Jones/Hadlee mob. The word “Taliban” means, of course, “the students” and Abbott is not a student of anything, and hasn’t been since his seminary days. (Ironically, a <Madrassa is a kind oif seminary for Muslims which is where the Taliban got their name).

    Nice try though.

  21. Australia should be optimistic about its future — it has seen 22 years of uninterrupted economic growth and is uniquely positioned to take advantaged of the ‘Asian Century’ and the growth of the middle class in places like China and India. As these countries grow they will continue to demand Australia’s resources which in turn will fuel Australia’s economic growth. It’s critical to use the profits of the mining boom to invest in infrastructure now which will give Australia a productivity edge in the future. – The Vine

    But instead we got Abbott

  22. victoria

    Posted Tuesday, September 24, 2013 at 9:12 am | Permalink

    AA

    Could you imagine if it was a labor govt who had made the announcement that Morriscum did yesterday? And if it was Labor who had increased borrowings to this amount?

    I can just imagine the headlines. Never mind the ABC, Sky and commercial stations. And what about shockjock radio!!
    =================================================

    Yes I can imagine. We heard/read it for the last 6 years.

    The silence from the media is deafening.

  23. [Prime Minister Abbott has wasted his first big political opportunity by choosing to reward angry party faithfuls, rather than work on maintaining political ground he was lucky to win at the general election.

    To be specific, the “anything but that lunatic Rudd” vote does not belong to Abbott, but a large part of it could have been his right through to 2016 had he approached these first days in power more adroitly.]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/9/24/politics/abbotts-great-mistake-will-haunt-2016?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AlanKohlerRssBusinessNewsFeedBusinessSpectator+%28ALAN+KOHLER+%7C+RSS+Business+News+Feed+%7C+Business+Spectator%29

  24. Steve777

    [Fran – how about ‘Obscurantist’?]

    Most would have to look it up — and it’s four syllables …

    It is a fair description, but lacks the emotional impact of “vandal”. It speaks to some of the drivers of their politics but not to their impacts.

  25. Victoria

    It sure is. I was thrilled to be around in time to see it bloom and able to clip it before some passerby decided to clip it “as an offering to my god”.

    Don’t laugh — that’s what someone told me as I caught him once! I asked if his god was happy with stolen goods, and whether he offered stolen goods as gifts to friends.

    He scurried away.

  26. “If you were an economist you’d say, ‘Don’t have them’,” Mr Buswell said of these taxes.

    If you were an economist you’d say, ‘Don’t have them’, with regard to these states.

  27. [If you were an economist you’d say, ‘Don’t have them’, with regard to these states.]

    Luckily we’re not ruled by economists then.

  28. “@ArghJoshi: Hey, @TwitterAU, can you freaking de-suspend the @climatecouncil account already? Pls RT, let’s get their attention.”

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