Week two flotsam and jetsam

Another review of the late counting situation, plus the Labor leadership vote, jockeying to succeed Bob Carr in the Senate, and prospects for electronic voting.

Yet another review of late counting, together with a few other things:

• With McEwen continuing to slip from the Liberals’ grasp, the only remaining lower house seat in doubt is Fairfax, where Clive Palmer received a very handy fillip yesterday when provisional votes pushed his lead out from three to 98. Follow the action here.

• Then there are the Senate races in Western Australia and Tasmania, which are unlikely to become clear until the below-the-line data entry is completed and the button pushed to calculate the outcome (there’s a dedicated thread for Senate counting here, although it’s not doing much business). In the former case, there are probably two seats which hinge on absurdly trivial combinations of micro-party votes and whether they work to the advantage of Australian Sports Party candidate Wayne Dropulich – the fates of Labor and Greens incumbents Louise Pratt and Scott Ludlam as much involved as those of Dropulich and the other potential micro-party winner, Zhenya Wang of the Palmer United Party. The early test for Dropulich is whether he stays ahead of the Rise Up Australia party (0.29%) after his own votes (0.22%) are supplemented by preferences from Australian Voice (0.09%), which has been touch-and-go but has improved for Dropulich on today’s counting. As TruthSeeker observes, Dropulich then needs for the current 183-vote lead of Australian Christians over Shooters & Fishers at Count 21 to hold, which it may not do when below-the-line votes are taken into account. Failing that, Dropulich could be saved if, at Count 19, Help End Marijuana Prohibition failed to hold its present 117-vote lead over the Animal Justice Party, for reasons which would do your head in. On any scenario in which Dropulich wins, the other seat looks set to go to Scott Ludlam of the Greens. If he fails, Zhenya Wang will be joined by Louise Pratt rather than Ludlam, as the Palmer United Party’s direction of preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor would no longer be a factor.

• For Tasmania, Kevin Bonham has the various scenarios neatly laid out in a flow chart, two of which (the final seat going to third Liberal Sally Chandler or Jacqui Lambie of the Palmer United Party) are rated more likely than the others (the win for Robbie Swan of the Sex Party currently projected by Antony Green’s calculator and, with a particularly small chance, a win for Family First). So far as the projection of Antony Green’s calculator is concerned, the trend of counting is towards Robbie Swan of the Sex Party in his fight to stay ahead of the third Labor candidate at Count 21. He took the lead on Tuesday, and it has since gradually opened to 382. However, Bonham’s rough calculation is that it will need to be more like 800 to save him from below-the-line vote leakage. Of the many absurdities in this state of affairs, I have two favourites. One is that the Liberals need the Labor vote to be as high as possible to help ensure Swan’s exclusion, which presumably means Liberal scrutineers are fighting with Labor ones to ensure potential Labor votes are included in the count. The second, noted by Kevin Bonham, is that voters confusing the Liberal Democrats with the Liberals is actually to the Liberals’ advantage, as they have various paths to victory which involve the Liberal Democrats staying ahead of the Palmer United Party or Family First, while their own vote total is essentially academic at this stage.

• Australian Workers Union national secretary Paul Howes was thought by many to have jumped the gun yesterday when he refuted media speculation he might replace Bob Carr in the Senate, given Carr is yet to announce any intention on that front. However, the universal expectation that it will be so is indicated by jockeying to fill the spot. Troy Bramston of The Australian reports that Carr wishes to be succeeded by Graeme Wedderburn, who has been his chief-of-staff both as Premier and Foreign Minister. However, it is today reported that state secretary Jamie Clements has called for the position to go to Deborah O’Neil, who lost her seat of Robertson at the September 7 election, pleading affirmative action. Graeme Wedderburn held senior positions with Westpac and Origin Energy following Carr’s retirement as Premier in 2005, before being lured back to the job by Nathan Rees in 2009 in part by the promise of a Senate seat down the track. However, he was denied a vacancy at the 2010 election due to an arrangement in which Matt Thistlethwaite, who is now entering the lower house as Peter Garrett’s successor in Kingsford-Smith, was given a Senate seat to ease him out of the state secretary position.

• At the beginning of what promises to be a bumper season of electoral reform debate, the Electoral Council of Australia and New Zealand offers a paper on Internet voting in Australian electoral systems. A trailblazer on this score has been Estonia, which has provided for voting over the internet at national elections since 2007, and allowed for voting over mobile phones at the 2011 election, at which the overall take-up rate was nearly a quarter of all votes cast. However, simplifying matters somewhat in Estonia’s case is its national identity card. The paper observes that survey research by the Western Australian Electoral Commission found satisfaction that internet voting would be secured had increased from a third of all respondents in 2005 to a half in 2013. Electronic voting more broadly, including “kiosk” voting conducted within polling stations, is spruiked as offering lower costs, improved formality, more accurate capture of preferences (trials with overseas personnel in 2007 found a higher take-up rate for below-the-line voting), and opportunities for assisting vision-impaired or non-English speaking voters.

• I’ve had too little to say on the Labor leadership election process, of which I’m all in favour, but there’s a useful review of the New Zealand and British precendents from David Donaldson in Crikey.

• Six months out from the state election, there was an EMRS opinion poll from Tasmania out yesterday, which you can read all about in the post below.

• Another new post directly below deals with the state by-election for Miranda in New South Wales, to be held on October 19.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,310 comments on “Week two flotsam and jetsam”

Comments Page 24 of 27
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  2. […..not surprisingly, Im against renewable spin in the efforts to change Global warming.]

    It is actually very surprising. The economic consequences of climate change will be calamitous. The rational, prudent, logical and just thing to do is to act to avert this calamity. It is extraordinary that any informed person would want to bring destruction down on themselves and the community in general. Yet that is what you seem to prefer: destruction. It makes no sense at all.

  4. Rummel

    “Now, onto renewable energy.”

    Because you have lost the ability to counter the arguments I posted? Or are you just ignoring them?

  6. [In the wide-ranging interview, Senator Johnston named maritime security as another priority to protect Australia’s reputation as a reliable exporter of coal and minerals.
    ”We’ve got to make sure as a supplier of vital resources, we’re a reliable supplier and we’ve got to let everybody in our region know that we are prepared to defend those sea lanes,” he said.
    The Coalition has vowed to boost defence spending by about $35 billion over the next 10 years, taking it up to a benchmark of 2 per cent of gross domestic product.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/war-footing-minister-eyes-next-hotspot-20130920-2u5dm.html#ixzz2fUIvlwF6

  8. Rummel,

    The scientists may indeed be wrong, as could the carbon industry.

    If the scientists are wrong we will have no negative effects and a few positive effects.

    If the carbon industry is wrong the negative effects will be far more significant than any positives.

    Ignoring science to favour rent seekers presents significant problems of its own.

  9. GG
    if shorten Is leader
    when and if q t is began

    the libs will remind him every day about the

    kev/ Julia/ that he was a part of

    do u really want that in the news every night

    albo for me its best way to have a united party and no baggage

  12. [In the wide-ranging interview, Senator Johnston named maritime security as another priority to protect Australia’s reputation as a reliable exporter of coal and minerals.
    ”We’ve got to make sure as a supplier of vital resources, we’re a reliable supplier and we’ve got to let everybody in our region know that we are prepared to defend those sea lanes,” he said.
    The Coalition has vowed to boost defence spending by about $35 billion over the next 10 years, taking it up to a benchmark of 2 per cent of gross domestic product.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/war-footing-minister-eyes-next-hotspot-20130920-2u5dm.html#ixzz2fUIvlwF6

    by lizzie on Sep 21, 2013 at 11:51 am]

    DJ is a complete idiot. This is scare-mongering from someone with a very warped view of reality. He is proposing to spend billions to ward of the figments of his own imagination. Such folly!!

  13. rummel
    we have over 3thklo watts of solar panels

    on roof summer we don’t pay power bill

    so you would have no interest in saving money for your family budget

  14. Hi Victoria. Congrats on the win last night. Terrific match. Hope the Swannies can do the same tonight but I’m not really hopeful.

    I’ve been flat out for last few months. Apart from OH having a few TIAs – all good but sometimes I now call him 10 sec OH 🙂 We’re at the awful age where you work around silly things happening but we’re keeping a sense of humour about it all. Life’s too good to be mournful about everything.

    We’re in a very safe Lib electorate but we were all working hard. We had a new candidate who wasn’t known at all in the area so we made an effort to talk to as many as possible. Prepolling was a bit arduous but we didn’t have many nasty rejections. Most of that came from the Lib volunteers who kept telling us how bad the debt is for Oz.

    Our candidate was down a bit in our Booth but so was Baldwin. The votes were picked up by Palmer’s PUP. He’d done an lot of advertising on local radio and his simple message sounded OK to many. I’m not sure what he got overall in Paterson but if our booth was anything to go by he didn’t do too badly.

    I just needed to veg out over past 2 weeks to get over the exhaustion. Back to normal now, the weather is magnificent, the birds are singing, the wallies and babies are beaut to watch. I ight start singing myself 🙂

    I’ve appreciated the posts from Bludgers over the weeks when I’ve quickly scanned the pages to keep up with things. Same with Twitter cos between the two my scanning gave me more info than the local news bulletins and telly.

  15. [briefly
    Posted Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 11:39 am | Permalink
    Abbott – Loved by even fewer, hated by even more, respected even less – and going down the tube as fast.

    by Tricot on Sep 21, 2013 at 11:27 am

    Soon to be despised from coast to coast.]

    Hi Briefly

    Well said.

    This might be an opportune time for me to raise a question with you that I’ve been waiting to ask for a while. Now that Abbott has sleazed and lied his way into power can we expect regular updates from you as to how you perceive his presence and his policies are affecting the economic and general well being of the country? I very much appreciated the long posts you were doing two or three months ago on that subject and I learned a lot from your economic expertise. I’m hoping there will be a lot more of it.

  17. [Stephanie Philbrick ‏@Steph_Philbrick 4m
    The ABC is appointing four new members of its advisory council to provide feedback on community attitudes. Interested? Call 1800 628 250.]

  18. mari I absolutely loved your travel stories. When I was dogtired at night and trawling PB they cheered me. Well done and may other Bludgers do the same when o/s.

    It relieves the hysteria I’ve been reading in some posts.

    BTW My Branch members were all picked up by PJK’s wtte ‘Swings and Roundabouts. We get into office and do things, the other mob get in and stuff it up, then we get in to fix it up again’ We all loved it and it put the whole thing into some kind of perspective. Now we just need Labor, Greens and the media to do their job and let us know when the Abbott Govt. stuffs up.

    No 2 son just arrived for lunch. I knew my free time wouldn’t last long. Catch you all later.

    BTW William. Hearty congrats for your work during the year. I enjoyed hearing you on the radio too.

  19. [my say
    Posted Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 11:56 am | PERMALINK
    rummel
    we have over 3thklo watts of solar panels

    on roof summer we don’t pay power bill

    so you would have no interest in saving money for your family budget]

    I think thats great Mysay. I would love to be able to get them mysay, however, i could not afford them under Labor and will defiantly not be able to afford them under the Libs.

  21. BH 1168

    Glad I didn’t go to the beach now,sitting out on the balcony in the sun instead.
    Thank you for your kind comments re my posts from Overseas, I appreciated them. Hope BK if he is around will also post from O/S

  23. Hi Darn…and thanks for the review 🙂

    I certainly will be posting my thoughts on the economy. The portents don’t look good so far. I don’t think we seen such an ideologically-motivated Government come to power. If they try to run the economy on the basis of their ideological prescriptions, there will be serious trouble before long. In any case, the labour market remains weak – actually losing jobs – and they have already adopted a coercive approach to investment in the resources sector. They will not get far with this. I think they really don’t understand the economy and have lost Martin Parkinson, who clearly has no confidence in them.

    Still, we have to watch what unfolds.

  24. [First and not surprisingly, Im against renewable spin in the efforts to change Global warming. As Mr Flannery said, you could stop all burning of co2 and the (cough!) warming will continue for a 1000 years.]

    Yes, I never use the brakes on my car for the sane reason. After all, if I’m going to crash anyway…

  25. fess,

    I think Albo has some good qualities. I’m actually considering what is good for the Party in my choice.

    1. Shorten will win the caucus vote comfortably. I don’t relish the notion of the MPs supporting one candidate and the membership another.
    2. The model that worked best for Labor in the 80 and 90s was the Hawke Keating model where Hawke appointed Ministers and let them get on with the job. Keating was excellent as the attack dog on the Libs while Hawke did the managerial stuff. I reckon Albo would be better as the attack dog rather than the Manager.
    3. Albo is more likely to have Labor involved in more blind alley issues that do not interest the electorate and waste a lot of time and energy.
    4. The right is the dominant group within the Party and the (especially) NSW right need to go through a process of renewal. I doubt Albo is the right fit as Leader to achieve this.

  26. The Coalition has vowed to boost defence spending by about $35 billion over the next 10 years, taking it up to a benchmark of 2 per cent of gross domestic product.

    and in the meantime slash the wages of aged care and child care workers.

  27. lefty e

    Posted Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    HIDE THE BOATS!

    http://m.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/veil-of-silence-descends-on-asylum-boat-arrivals-20130920-2u5t5.html

    Would any of our resident LNPers care to defend this new policy of hiding things from the public?
    ========================================================

    They can’t defend the indefensible. This a media censorship that goes beyond anything that has been previously canvasseed around the media.

    And where are the media? Sitting back doing nothing. They should be yelling from the rooftops.

    But Murdoch has said this is the democracy i want so they meekly cowtow to his demands

  28. [@samesame: Marriage equality in the ACT can happen if Federal Labor unites to support it, writes @AlexGreenwich]

    Why should we create a situation where the ACT has a different marriage law to the rest of the country?

  29. [4. The right is the dominant group within the Party]

    GG:

    Appreciate your thoughts. The above is why I think Shorten is best placed to leverage support for party reform, including sorting out the current leadership election process.

    I’m ambivalent about Shorten because he often comes across as hesitant or uncertain when speaking in public. But I agree with you about Albanese – I think he’s better as deputy.

  30. What an unpredictable count in Fairfax, such a shame it looks like Palmer will fall just short on the first count. I don’t envy those scrutineers.

  31. [Developers, home-owners and businesses with Liberal Party connections have been shown special treatment by the Sutherland Shire Council and its mayor, the failed Liberal candidate for the federal seat of Werriwa, Kent Johns.

    In just 12 months since Liberals gained 10 of 15 seats at the council, it has undergone a restructure that has led to the sacking of its most senior directors and the abolition of its internal ombudsman. Established members of independent assessment panels have been replaced by hand-picked candidates, and decades of planning controls have been swept away in the Liberal Party’s southern Sydney stronghold.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sutherland-council-favours-those-with-liberal-connections-20130920-2u5dl.html#ixzz2fUU8OFzq ]

  32. Abbott and his Coalition-of-Four Govt may be able to censor the Australian media and fail in its responsiblities to the people of Australia by not having an open and accountable Govt preferring secrecy instead. But they cannot stop the UNHRC or the Refugee Council from publishing the numbers.

    The only problem with this is that they are not produced daily/monthly but more quarterly/annually.

  33. It’d be a hard choice for leader if iI were a Labor member. In the short term it’d probably be Albanese as he’d be less of a waste during the honeymoon. But I generally find him a lightweight, and personally repellant.

    I’ve never really understood why people on here bag Shorten out, who seems relatively reasonable to me.

  34. Psephos

    Posted Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 12:30 pm | Permalink

    @samesame: Marriage equality in the ACT can happen if Federal Labor unites to support it, writes @AlexGreenwich

    Why should we create a situation where the ACT has a different marriage law to the rest of the country?
    =======================================================

    Why not? Many laws are different in each of the States and Territories.

  35. The Senate could order the Immigration department to provide the information on a weekly basis and pass a resolution delaying any legislation in the portfolio until the information is provided. A very harsh action, but it’s available.

  36. Achmed, the question is whether marriage is one of those areas where it makes sense not to have disparate laws amongst the several states. I think it probably is.

  37. Itep, I think you’re coming up short on Albo. He is pure Labor with a real passion for our values. And he is very popular amongst the ranks. He has my vote

  38. In other news, truth seeker has posted an interesting analysis on his blog calling the New South Wales Senate race too close to call between Sinodinos, the Democrats candidate and the Shooters and Fishers candidate.

    He also suggests the final toe seats in WA may be own by either Pratt and the PUP or LDP candidates.

  40. Gary, there’s apparently still somewhere around 300 votes to count in Fairfax, with a projected ‘win’ by O’Brien by 10-17 votes. It’ll be tight enough that the winner could change in a recount and there’d likely also be a court challenge.

  42. The Abbott/Hockey budget ’emergency’ seems to another problem that is no longer reported in the media.

    Censorship or incompetence? Or to proud and arrogant to admit there was no such thing?

    Has it gone away? Did it really exist?

    Did it go away with the sacking of 3 public servants?

  44. Not sure of the constitutionality of states and territories making marriage laws (as distinct from registering marriages )
    S.51 xxi cedes laws regulating marriage to the Commonwealth.

  46. Palmer needs >44.8% of the remaining 415 declaration votes (early and postals)

    So far, he has received 40.1% of the 10,409 early and postals

    …looks like he is going to fall just short on current trends….

  49. To be precise OC, little was ceded by the Constitution. The states still have plenary legislative power, and s 109 settles inconsistencies in the favour of the Commonwealth law. I think the most likely interpretation will be that the Commonwealth could legislate for same sex marriage, that the Howard amendment is valid and any inconsistent state law would be invalid. But it’s certainly arguable otherwise and it’d be interesting to see where the High Court went.

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