Week two flotsam and jetsam

Another review of the late counting situation, plus the Labor leadership vote, jockeying to succeed Bob Carr in the Senate, and prospects for electronic voting.

Yet another review of late counting, together with a few other things:

• With McEwen continuing to slip from the Liberals’ grasp, the only remaining lower house seat in doubt is Fairfax, where Clive Palmer received a very handy fillip yesterday when provisional votes pushed his lead out from three to 98. Follow the action here.

• Then there are the Senate races in Western Australia and Tasmania, which are unlikely to become clear until the below-the-line data entry is completed and the button pushed to calculate the outcome (there’s a dedicated thread for Senate counting here, although it’s not doing much business). In the former case, there are probably two seats which hinge on absurdly trivial combinations of micro-party votes and whether they work to the advantage of Australian Sports Party candidate Wayne Dropulich – the fates of Labor and Greens incumbents Louise Pratt and Scott Ludlam as much involved as those of Dropulich and the other potential micro-party winner, Zhenya Wang of the Palmer United Party. The early test for Dropulich is whether he stays ahead of the Rise Up Australia party (0.29%) after his own votes (0.22%) are supplemented by preferences from Australian Voice (0.09%), which has been touch-and-go but has improved for Dropulich on today’s counting. As TruthSeeker observes, Dropulich then needs for the current 183-vote lead of Australian Christians over Shooters & Fishers at Count 21 to hold, which it may not do when below-the-line votes are taken into account. Failing that, Dropulich could be saved if, at Count 19, Help End Marijuana Prohibition failed to hold its present 117-vote lead over the Animal Justice Party, for reasons which would do your head in. On any scenario in which Dropulich wins, the other seat looks set to go to Scott Ludlam of the Greens. If he fails, Zhenya Wang will be joined by Louise Pratt rather than Ludlam, as the Palmer United Party’s direction of preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor would no longer be a factor.

• For Tasmania, Kevin Bonham has the various scenarios neatly laid out in a flow chart, two of which (the final seat going to third Liberal Sally Chandler or Jacqui Lambie of the Palmer United Party) are rated more likely than the others (the win for Robbie Swan of the Sex Party currently projected by Antony Green’s calculator and, with a particularly small chance, a win for Family First). So far as the projection of Antony Green’s calculator is concerned, the trend of counting is towards Robbie Swan of the Sex Party in his fight to stay ahead of the third Labor candidate at Count 21. He took the lead on Tuesday, and it has since gradually opened to 382. However, Bonham’s rough calculation is that it will need to be more like 800 to save him from below-the-line vote leakage. Of the many absurdities in this state of affairs, I have two favourites. One is that the Liberals need the Labor vote to be as high as possible to help ensure Swan’s exclusion, which presumably means Liberal scrutineers are fighting with Labor ones to ensure potential Labor votes are included in the count. The second, noted by Kevin Bonham, is that voters confusing the Liberal Democrats with the Liberals is actually to the Liberals’ advantage, as they have various paths to victory which involve the Liberal Democrats staying ahead of the Palmer United Party or Family First, while their own vote total is essentially academic at this stage.

• Australian Workers Union national secretary Paul Howes was thought by many to have jumped the gun yesterday when he refuted media speculation he might replace Bob Carr in the Senate, given Carr is yet to announce any intention on that front. However, the universal expectation that it will be so is indicated by jockeying to fill the spot. Troy Bramston of The Australian reports that Carr wishes to be succeeded by Graeme Wedderburn, who has been his chief-of-staff both as Premier and Foreign Minister. However, it is today reported that state secretary Jamie Clements has called for the position to go to Deborah O’Neil, who lost her seat of Robertson at the September 7 election, pleading affirmative action. Graeme Wedderburn held senior positions with Westpac and Origin Energy following Carr’s retirement as Premier in 2005, before being lured back to the job by Nathan Rees in 2009 in part by the promise of a Senate seat down the track. However, he was denied a vacancy at the 2010 election due to an arrangement in which Matt Thistlethwaite, who is now entering the lower house as Peter Garrett’s successor in Kingsford-Smith, was given a Senate seat to ease him out of the state secretary position.

• At the beginning of what promises to be a bumper season of electoral reform debate, the Electoral Council of Australia and New Zealand offers a paper on Internet voting in Australian electoral systems. A trailblazer on this score has been Estonia, which has provided for voting over the internet at national elections since 2007, and allowed for voting over mobile phones at the 2011 election, at which the overall take-up rate was nearly a quarter of all votes cast. However, simplifying matters somewhat in Estonia’s case is its national identity card. The paper observes that survey research by the Western Australian Electoral Commission found satisfaction that internet voting would be secured had increased from a third of all respondents in 2005 to a half in 2013. Electronic voting more broadly, including “kiosk” voting conducted within polling stations, is spruiked as offering lower costs, improved formality, more accurate capture of preferences (trials with overseas personnel in 2007 found a higher take-up rate for below-the-line voting), and opportunities for assisting vision-impaired or non-English speaking voters.

• I’ve had too little to say on the Labor leadership election process, of which I’m all in favour, but there’s a useful review of the New Zealand and British precendents from David Donaldson in Crikey.

• Six months out from the state election, there was an EMRS opinion poll from Tasmania out yesterday, which you can read all about in the post below.

• Another new post directly below deals with the state by-election for Miranda in New South Wales, to be held on October 19.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,310 comments on “Week two flotsam and jetsam”

Comments Page 23 of 27
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  1. GG

    [In breaking news, TP fails to finish long, boring, repetiitive rant because he bores himself……]

    I’d find TP less tiresome if he just linked to one of his favourite rants and said “click here for my position, in case you were wondering …

    I really do wonder what if anything, he thinks he is accomplishing. It reads as borderline OCD.

  2. rummel

    [Ted Cruz, winner of a climate-denier award from Texas green groups, recently proclaimed that “there has been no recorded warming since 1998.” Not exactly, Ted. According to the IPCC draft report, the rate of warming at the planet’s surface is lower over the past 15 years, but warming has not stopped. In fact, since the 1950s, each successive decade has been hotter than the last, and the 2000s were the hottest decade since modern record-keeping began in 1880.

    Scientists have a variety of explanations for this, including the fact that more heat is being transferred deeper into the ocean and that volcanic eruptions have blocked sunlight. “We never expected warming to be linear,” says Kevin Trenberth, senior scientist at the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.]

    Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warming-is-very-real-20130912/#ixzz2fUBX6Dux
    Follow us: @rollingstone on Twitter | RollingStone on Facebook

  3. Hunter Lower MNC Bludgers. Did you get a text message re Albo’s Hunter launch tomorrow at Club Macquarie, Argenton at 1pm.

    Gotta try to organise ourselves to get down there for it. OH has made up his mind but I’m still wavering around on it.

  7. despite some I will contribute
    ==============================================================
    was just talking to my bank teller

    telling her about what s happening the newltd not having item in the paper here

    was shocked about the boats and no reporting and clean energy

    I suggested she join twitter,said yes

    I think its important we encourage as many people on twitter

    as we can, they don’t have to tweet they can just read.

  10. confessions

    [Though it’s refreshing to see someone from NSW not supporting Albo – a first from memory?]

    Do you always read what you say? What is “refreshing” and a “first from memory” about a Right Winger voting for a Right Winger?

    I don’t have hissy fits by the way I just can’t stand high handed arrogance.

  13. [guytaur
    Posted Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 11:11 am | PERMALINK
    rummel

    You are lying on the warming. Weather Bureau has noted this year warmest on record.

    Not exactly stopped]

    Oh! so we can us short term local data and not be accused of “cherry picking”, interesting. Must be a special rule only for hot weather, because 15 years of no warming is not significant enough for a trend apparently. lol.

  15. Lizzie

    [I completely agree with you. Calling people extreme names is over-reaching which destroys credibility.]

    It also debauches the language, the purpose of which is to permit a meeting of the minds (as well as that of the hearts).

    F@scists are ‘political’ in the broad sense, and their politics features persistent attributes (of which AA has listed a number) but their substantive politics is that of the putatively (or actually) lethal weapon directed against ostensible deviance. Golden Dawn‘s leader said “there’s no harm in giving {illegal migrants} a slap” presumably to encourage all ostensible non-Greeks to keep a low profile. That’s their distinctive politics, rather than the staff that appears on paper or in cyber-space.

  16. [Though it’s refreshing to see someone from NSW not supporting Albo – a first from memory?]

    The ballot is being fought on factional lines, not state lines. The NSW Right is working hard for Shorten.

    On the other hand not all of the Vic Left is trying very hard for Albanese. There’s a lot of bad blood between the NSW and Vic Lefts.

  17. [Clive wins by 45. Not sure if I’m pleased or not.]

    Labor and the extreme greens preferences got this mining billionaire into Parliament.

    The Libs and myself will be reminding them of this for the next 3 years.

  18. John Howard – Loved by few, hated by quite a few, respected by some.

    Abbott – Loved by even fewer, hated by even more, respected even less – and going down the tube as fast.

  23. Sean Tisme

    Posted Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 11:26 am | Permalink

    GG,

    Zero boats have arrived since Operation Sovereign Borders has been launched.

    Anymore questions?
    =================================================

    Provide proof. Actual evidence that is not just a newspaper report.

  24. [Provide proof. Actual evidence that is not just a newspaper report.]

    Well whats evidence in your mind?? Press release from the Labor Party?

    There have been no illegal boat arrivals brought to Christmas Island since operation Sovereign Borders was launched. DEAL WITH IT!

  25. [In breaking news, TP fails to finish long, boring, repetiitive rant because he bores himself……]

    How about when dishonest memes and slagging on Rudd cease else be prepared to hear some reality re Gillard. And with Gillard it isn’t slagging just statements of truth.

  26. I am happy Mr Flannery is no longer getting paid by the public to make these claims]

    But your happy people are getting paid by the taxpayer to describe global warming as a myth and CSIRO and BOM as propagandists?

  27. [What is “refreshing” and a “first from memory” about a Right Winger voting for a Right Winger?]

    It’s refreshing to see someone from NSW not supporting Albo.

    It’s not that hard to understand.

  28. [Can’t wait to see it. The evidence must be a cracker to explain how the warming has stopped over the past 15 years, all the while co2 has continued to rise unabated and breaking through the magical 400 parts per million.

    by rummel on Sep 21, 2013 at 11:09 am]

    You’re purporting to be interested in the Report, but are almost certainly just making that up. While you have no explanation for changes in the climate and cannot account for the behaviour of the global climate system, you are content to ridicule and lie about the explanations offered by others. This is ideological, dishonest and essentially worthless.

  30. TP,

    Poor effort!

    I’m sure you can repeat yourself, over and over in a never ending litany of postings that are exactly the same as all your other ones.

    Try harder Mr OCD!

  32. More trouble for Barry.

    [Corruption authorities have raided the electorate offices of two NSW MPs overnight.

    Fairfax Media has confirmed the raids by officers attached to the Independent Commission Against Corruption, took place on Friday.

    Fairfax has learned the identity of the MPs to be Chris Spence, member for The Entrance, and Darren Webber, member for Wyong.

    Premier Barry O’Farrell’s office has been approached for comment]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/two-mps-targeted-in-corruption-raids-20130921-2u671.html#ixzz2fUEajORx

  34. Oakeshott Country

    Point taken re the MP for Lyne, about as good as Pruneface from Cowper :devil:

    Thank you re my travel comments appreciate your endorsement

  37. [Oh! so we can us short term local data and not be accused of “cherry picking”, interesting. Must be a special rule only for hot weather, because 15 years of no warming is not significant enough for a trend apparently. lol.

    by rummel on Sep 21, 2013 at 11:25 am]

    15 years without warming? This is a Bolt-scale lie. Warming has continued. You are denying the evidence.

  39. GoldCoaster13 1h
    @tonyabbottmhr All that fan fare of stop the boats, save the world. The truth is out now that it was all untrue on your part. #auspol

    Retweeted by Gold Coast Nurse
    Expand Reply

  40. GG:

    As I said yesterday, I haven’t really been following the media coverage of Labor’s leadership elections but it seems from the comments here and tweets elsewhere that all the public endorsements so far have been from a) NSW Labor people (present and former), and b) left faction people in support of Albo.

    I’m still undecided on the leadership. Who are you voting for?

  41. Now, onto renewable energy.

    First and not surprisingly, Im against renewable spin in the efforts to change Global warming. As Mr Flannery said, you could stop all burning of co2 and the (cough!) warming will continue for a 1000 years.

    I am however all for sustainable energy and think the government(s) has got the framing of this issue wrong. I would like to see increased renewable energy and Aust cars all run off cheap gas from Australian operations, purely to break our reliance on foreign oil, which all seems to sit under the politically violent hotspots of the world.

    Save our farms and Cars from foreign interests 🙂

  43. [Abbott – Loved by even fewer, hated by even more, respected even less – and going down the tube as fast.

    by Tricot on Sep 21, 2013 at 11:27 am]

    Soon to be despised from coast to coast.

  44. “I don’t think it’s a very Christian thing to come in by the back door rather than the front door. … I think the people we accept should be coming the right way and not the wrong way. … If you pay a people-smuggler, if you jump the queue, if you take yourself and your family on a leaky boat, that’s doing the wrong thing, not the right thing, and we shouldn’t encourage it.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4123872.html

    Unbelievable. And he calls himself a Christian. If God were real, he’d smite him.

  45. rummel

    I know I shouldn’t respond to your Boltist stupidity, but

    [In a more rational world, of course, we wouldn’t need any more IPCC assessments. We would have listened to the scientists, built a global consensus and forged international agreements to reduce carbon pollution and head off the risk of climate catastrophe. But in the 25 years since the IPCC was formed, global carbon pollution is rising faster than ever. Future readers may view IPCC reports not as landmarks of scientific inquiry, but as suicide notes from a lost civilization.]

    Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warming-is-very-real-20130912/#ixzz2fUGu3f9b
    Follow us: @rollingstone on Twitter | RollingStone on Facebook

  50. Unofficial sources from within Morison’s offices put boat arrivals since the election as a sudden flood at 2,897 with one boat lost with 137 drowned that the Abbott govt refused defence forces to enter the area On concerns regarding the Vessel.

    That is the unofficial Unconfirmed information not attributable to any source. —

    we request Moriscum to make a definitive statement.–on Just how many are his policies killing…

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