Yet another review of late counting, together with a few other things:
• With McEwen continuing to slip from the Liberals’ grasp, the only remaining lower house seat in doubt is Fairfax, where Clive Palmer received a very handy fillip yesterday when provisional votes pushed his lead out from three to 98. Follow the action here.
• Then there are the Senate races in Western Australia and Tasmania, which are unlikely to become clear until the below-the-line data entry is completed and the button pushed to calculate the outcome (there’s a dedicated thread for Senate counting here, although it’s not doing much business). In the former case, there are probably two seats which hinge on absurdly trivial combinations of micro-party votes and whether they work to the advantage of Australian Sports Party candidate Wayne Dropulich – the fates of Labor and Greens incumbents Louise Pratt and Scott Ludlam as much involved as those of Dropulich and the other potential micro-party winner, Zhenya Wang of the Palmer United Party. The early test for Dropulich is whether he stays ahead of the Rise Up Australia party (0.29%) after his own votes (0.22%) are supplemented by preferences from Australian Voice (0.09%), which has been touch-and-go but has improved for Dropulich on today’s counting. As TruthSeeker observes, Dropulich then needs for the current 183-vote lead of Australian Christians over Shooters & Fishers at Count 21 to hold, which it may not do when below-the-line votes are taken into account. Failing that, Dropulich could be saved if, at Count 19, Help End Marijuana Prohibition failed to hold its present 117-vote lead over the Animal Justice Party, for reasons which would do your head in. On any scenario in which Dropulich wins, the other seat looks set to go to Scott Ludlam of the Greens. If he fails, Zhenya Wang will be joined by Louise Pratt rather than Ludlam, as the Palmer United Party’s direction of preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor would no longer be a factor.
• For Tasmania, Kevin Bonham has the various scenarios neatly laid out in a flow chart, two of which (the final seat going to third Liberal Sally Chandler or Jacqui Lambie of the Palmer United Party) are rated more likely than the others (the win for Robbie Swan of the Sex Party currently projected by Antony Green’s calculator and, with a particularly small chance, a win for Family First). So far as the projection of Antony Green’s calculator is concerned, the trend of counting is towards Robbie Swan of the Sex Party in his fight to stay ahead of the third Labor candidate at Count 21. He took the lead on Tuesday, and it has since gradually opened to 382. However, Bonham’s rough calculation is that it will need to be more like 800 to save him from below-the-line vote leakage. Of the many absurdities in this state of affairs, I have two favourites. One is that the Liberals need the Labor vote to be as high as possible to help ensure Swan’s exclusion, which presumably means Liberal scrutineers are fighting with Labor ones to ensure potential Labor votes are included in the count. The second, noted by Kevin Bonham, is that voters confusing the Liberal Democrats with the Liberals is actually to the Liberals’ advantage, as they have various paths to victory which involve the Liberal Democrats staying ahead of the Palmer United Party or Family First, while their own vote total is essentially academic at this stage.
• Australian Workers Union national secretary Paul Howes was thought by many to have jumped the gun yesterday when he refuted media speculation he might replace Bob Carr in the Senate, given Carr is yet to announce any intention on that front. However, the universal expectation that it will be so is indicated by jockeying to fill the spot. Troy Bramston of The Australian reports that Carr wishes to be succeeded by Graeme Wedderburn, who has been his chief-of-staff both as Premier and Foreign Minister. However, it is today reported that state secretary Jamie Clements has called for the position to go to Deborah O’Neil, who lost her seat of Robertson at the September 7 election, pleading affirmative action. Graeme Wedderburn held senior positions with Westpac and Origin Energy following Carr’s retirement as Premier in 2005, before being lured back to the job by Nathan Rees in 2009 in part by the promise of a Senate seat down the track. However, he was denied a vacancy at the 2010 election due to an arrangement in which Matt Thistlethwaite, who is now entering the lower house as Peter Garrett’s successor in Kingsford-Smith, was given a Senate seat to ease him out of the state secretary position.
• At the beginning of what promises to be a bumper season of electoral reform debate, the Electoral Council of Australia and New Zealand offers a paper on Internet voting in Australian electoral systems. A trailblazer on this score has been Estonia, which has provided for voting over the internet at national elections since 2007, and allowed for voting over mobile phones at the 2011 election, at which the overall take-up rate was nearly a quarter of all votes cast. However, simplifying matters somewhat in Estonia’s case is its national identity card. The paper observes that survey research by the Western Australian Electoral Commission found satisfaction that internet voting would be secured had increased from a third of all respondents in 2005 to a half in 2013. Electronic voting more broadly, including “kiosk” voting conducted within polling stations, is spruiked as offering lower costs, improved formality, more accurate capture of preferences (trials with overseas personnel in 2007 found a higher take-up rate for below-the-line voting), and opportunities for assisting vision-impaired or non-English speaking voters.
• I’ve had too little to say on the Labor leadership election process, of which I’m all in favour, but there’s a useful review of the New Zealand and British precendents from David Donaldson in Crikey.
• Six months out from the state election, there was an EMRS opinion poll from Tasmania out yesterday, which you can read all about in the post below.
• Another new post directly below deals with the state by-election for Miranda in New South Wales, to be held on October 19.
Further to my 997 re Albo. I am getting the feeling that this could be a case of – “cometh the hour cometh the man”.
[victoria
Posted Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 9:41 am | PERMALINK
lizzie
David Suzuki will be on qanda this Monday]
I can’t wait.
rummel
As i said. As you were…..
victoria
I’m looking forward to it.
Boerwar’s bark beetles got a mention, as did the importance of clean air so that we can go on breathing!
lizzie
Speaking of which where is Boerwar?
I wanted to share the relief of the Hawks win last night. 🙂
After two weeks……with a totally biased and no evidence to back it up other than a straw poll of one…..I sense the electorate is at once sullen and largely, now, uninterested in “politics”.
There is absolutely no cheering in the streets from the conservatives, and a huge sigh of relief from the other side that there is no cheering and things, on the surface, are not that bad.
There have not been endless comments in awe and wonder about Abbott, and after reading the Atkins piece this morning, I sense the honeymoon is over already – if ever there was one.
The press seems to be at a loss on how to cope. Bit too early to turn its bile on the LNP as they were participants in getting them elected, yet unable to give Abbott much praise.
PB has been subdued as well. Still the odd Gillard/Rudd thing and continued meaningless rubbish from the conservative hacks, but for the most part, a sense of almost weariness.
Some long-standing posters seem to have gone but for what reason I do not know.
Even the “Labor is disarray” theme – a good bash line from days gone by, as tried by ABC 7.30 during the week – has lost its impact.
People actually “get it” that after a defeat, a political party has to rebuild.
I am sure Geelong feel this way right not.
victoria
He suddenly disappeared, don’t know why. He may be busy elsewhere. Hope he’s OK healthwise. Too much simmering anger is not good (and I say that with sympathy).
victoria:
Leadership support seems to be falling along factional lines. Not surprising. Though it’s refreshing to see someone from NSW not supporting Albo – a first from memory?
Tricot:
The first lot of published polling will most likely be a reality check.
I expect the govt will get a honeymoon, just like others have.
Could this by why Sinodinos is only outer?
Before being elected to the Senate in 2011, Mr Sinodinos was a director of AWH, which ICAC has heard is an Obeid-related company.
In early 2012 the NSW Coalition government awarded AWH a 25-year water infrastructure deal without any tenders. Corporate records show that Mr Sinodinos was a director of AWH from November 2008 until November 2011.
THE Independent Commission Against Corruption has begun to make formal inquiries into the affairs of Australian Water Holdings, a company linked to the family of the ALP kingpin Eddie Obeid, the Herald has learned.
AWH made a $30,000 donation to the NSW Liberals while Mr Sinodinos was the state party treasurer
victoria
OH over the moon over Hawthorn victory, mainly to get rid of the Cats.
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits 1h
Howard govt’s first 6 yrs govt revenue increased 50%. Rudd-Gillard’s 6 yrs by 29%. Will Abbott be lucky like Howard?]
March 2007 Abbott intervenes
Mr Santoro, who runs a Brisbane-based lobbying business, is one of the federal Liberals’ chief fund-raisers. Last June Opposition Leader Tony Abbott intervened to defeat a motion to ban lobbyists from holding such positions in the party.
A week later, Mr Santoro was appointed a director of AWQ, AWH’s Queensland arm.
Zoomster # 941, agree completely about upper house selections. Great idea.
.
December 2012
Australian Water Holdings has extensive connections with the Liberal Party. In the past five years it has donated at least $80,000 to the Coalition, and has used Michael Photios, a member of the NSW Liberal Party’s state executive, as a lobbyist.
Mr Di Girolamo said he had also held meetings with other members of the NSW cabinet, including the Water Minister, Greg Pearce, and the Treasurer, Mike Baird.
For a time, a director on the board of the company’s Queensland subsidiary was Santo Santoro, a former minister in the Howard government who resigned in disgrace for failing to properly declare his shareholdings.
The company also employs John Wells, a spin doctor with extensive Liberal Party connections.
For almost three years until November last year, the federal senator and former finance director of the Liberal Party, Arthur Sinodinos, was the chairman of Australian Water Holdings.
Last week, Mr Sinodinos said he, too, had 5 per cent of the company as part of his role, and he has recorded a shareholding in the company in his parliamentary pecuniary interest register.
But Mr Sinodinos’s name is absent from the company’s official share register filed with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
[845
Tom the first and best
Posted Friday, September 20, 2013 at 11:08 pm | PERMALINK
842
One Term Tony!]
Let’s make that our aim. I think we can do it. We’re certainly getting a lot of help from this government.
While I think boat arrivals that we are forced to process should be listed by the government, any illegal boats sent back to Indonesia should be held in secrecy.
Why? Because just as Indonesia secretly lets boats sail into Australian waters attacking our sovereignty, we should be able to return the favour.
Fran (and Mari) @ 956. Re pension. SOUNDS like a troll? Screams it, if you ask me. I’ve not heard anything as absurd (well, Abbott as Minister for Women aside) for a while.
Tony Wright is spot on. Ridiculous to assume otherwise.
[974
Darn
Posted Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 9:20 am | PERMALINK
With the Fairfax result due to be announced today according to news reports I’m interested in which way PBs would like it to go. I’m barracking for Clive because I think he could be a real thorn in Abbott’s side in the parliament and the media will quote him on just about anything he says.
As the saying goes – any enemy of my enemy is my friend.]
Yep, I agree. He’ll drive Abbott (further) up the wall. 🙂
[Tricot
Posted Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 9:48 am | Permalink
..
PB has been subdued as well. Still the odd Gillard/Rudd thing ]
I think get the members to vote has put an end to Rudd and Gillard resigned. It is well and truly over.
[After two weeks……with a totally biased and no evidence to back it up other than a straw poll of one…..I sense the electorate is at once sullen and largely, now, uninterested in “politics”.]
The people rejoiced when Labor axed Gillard, the worst Prime Minister in Australia’s history.
The people then rejoiced when Rudd the Dudd was kicked out of power with the worst Primary Vote in 100 Years.
Labor hacks are in complete denial they just got flogged
Sean Tisme
Posted Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 10:06 am | Permalink
While I think boat arrivals that we are forced to process should be listed by the government, any illegal boats sent back to Indonesia should be held in secrecy.
—————————————————
Sounds more like keeping it secret from the Australian public to hide the failure of the policy
confessions
It was bad enough that Jeff Kennett was a loud mouthed President of the Hawthorn FC. During which time he made those comments after the 2008 Premiership win against Geelong. Since then the club and its supporters had to cop the kennett curse mantra. Last night he was at the game, and all i could envisage was a ramping up of this mantra if Hawthorn lost. I dislike kennett for many reasons unrelated to football, but to have his name continually mentioned everytime Hawthorn lost against Geelong was becoming unbearable for this household!!
It was 80 years – you just can’t help yourself
A sign of Indonesia’s future approach to Australia and ‘co-operation’?
[ Indonesia takes tobacco plain packaging dispute to WTO
Indonesia has joined a growing battle at the World Trade Organisation over Australia’s landmark plain packaging rules for tobacco, the global body says.
The WTO said that Indonesia had made a formal request for consultations with Australia on the issue, which under the Geneva-based organisation’s rules is the first step towards a full-blown trade dispute.
Indonesia is the fifth country to challenge Australia at the WTO over its pioneering legislation, passed in 2011 and in force since last December, and which aims to curb smoking by requiring tobacco products to be sold in drab green boxes with the same typeface and graphic images of diseased smokers. ]
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/9/21/health-and-pharmaceuticals/indonesia-takes-tobacco-plain-packaging-dispute-wto
Mind you, it might just suit the tories (certainly their erstwhile backers – Big Tobacco) to lose this in the WTO
Rummel
“One side use computer models as the Centre plank for their hypothesis. It’s now very simple, there is a huge disconnect between models and observation. The models are simply wrong, just like Baghdad bob and a Labor victory. ”
No, the hypothesis is based on basic physics. The models are used to see what we expect to happen.
Can I ask why you don’t have a shred of skepticism towards the claims of a newspaper. It’s just embarrassing.
New paper shows that the pause in warming is simply due to more La Ninas, and is solely due to relatively cool Northern Hemisphere winters.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature12534.html
As we saw with your claims about what Tim Flannery said, there’s no truth, just your own inability to fact check.
Sean Tisme
2013 the year Australia has no science minister (can’t see Abbott lasting more than 12 months). That it all it will probable be remembered for.
There is a risk that Abbott will sign a free trade agreement that destroys our PBS, that is a worry. The Abbott government is really shaping up to be a non event.
“@SkyNewsAust: via @lipporocks: Burke: In Howard Govt a culture of secrecy led to culture of cover-up. I don’t want to see that ever happen again”
Discussion of the Kosaka and Xie paper here:
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/09/11/seasonal-nino/
No Boats Since Operation Sovereign Borders Launched
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clamp-on-boat-arrival-figures-20130920-2u5as.html
[As of Friday afternoon, sources on Christmas Island – to which asylum seekers on intercepted boats are initially taken – were saying there had been no boats in recent days.]
Finally shutting down Indonesia’s attack on our sovereignty
But then came Barnaby Joyce, saying Indonesia was unwelcome.
NT Cattleman’s Association executive Luke Bowen was in Jakarta, talking about getting the live trade back on track, when he heard Joyce’s remarks. “I couldn’t believe it,” he says.
Hoof in mouth Joyce
Sean
“Finally shutting down Indonesia’s attack on our sovereignty”
Do you say things like this, because they sound cool?
Can you explain exactly what you mean? Because all I see is someone indulging in a bit of wangery
sean
What does this statement mean?
[“A spokesman for the Immigration Minister Scott Morrison would not say if any boats had arrived”]
Immigration Minister Scott Morrison’s office has clamped down on information about asylum seekers issued by his department and border protection agencies.
Previously, the Australian Customs and Border Protection Service has issued statements whenever an asylum-seeker boat arrived and the Immigration Department provided collated figures each month, which they made publicly available.
But inquiries to both the department and ACBPS on boat arrivals are now being directed to the minister’s office. Mr Morrison’s spokesman is declining to provide any information
Sounds more like hiding and censoring information. Just like any good Fascist Govt would do
Astrobleme
Sean is Abbott’s Chief of slogan bogan
Astrobleme
Posted Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 10:24 am | Permalink
Sean
Can you explain exactly what you mean? Because all I see is someone indulging in a bit of wangery
=======================================================
Wangery? Sounded that be spelt with a ‘K’ as in ‘w**kery
Victoria,
He likes his slogans! Especially the cool ones that make him feel important and puff his little chest like tough man… ohhhh feel the machismo!
Sean
!00 boats have arrived with 3000 people on them.
Get back to me when you can prove me wrong
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/09/aar-rail-traffic-increased-in-august.html
trainspotting in the US freight market…interesting
Surely this is just hyperbole from Mungo:
[Science is no longer to have either the status nor the independence it used to enjoy. The same approach can be discerned in the pre-election commitment to sort out research. Australian Research Council grants considered to be pointless, frivolous or wasteful (by whom?) will cease henceforth. In vain do the scientists plead that it is impossible to tell where the research will lead, or what products it might eventually produce – if we could do that, it wouldn’t be research, just development.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/strap-yourself-in-were-all-going-back-to-the-future-20130920-2u5ax.html#ixzz2fTyu1vbZ ]
WTF? You can’t just abolish an entire national research funding program!
Astrobleme
Legend in his own universe comes to mind
[Do you say things like this, because they sound cool? ]
The problem with the left is your lack of attachment with reality and commonsense.
Think about the name of the Coalitions policy… Operation Sovereign Borders. Why would the Coalition name it this?
Because Labor, the gutless wonders they are, said we couldn’t stop boats entering Australian waters because we might upset the Indonesians who are the ones who are violating our borders.
Under Labor and Leftie Logic:
Indonesian sending hundreds upon hundreds of illegal boats into Australian waters = Not an attack on our sovereignty
Australia attempting to send some of these illegal Indonesian boats sailed by Indonesian crew from Indonesian ports back to whence they came = Attack on Indonesias Sovereignty!
It doesn’t pass the commonsense test and the Coalition have run rings around your lot and will continue to do so. The Operation Sovereign Borders name is really an attack on Labor and Leftists stupidity.
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits 13m
Relax everyone, the guy who claims he “ran the war in Iraq” is in charge of boat operations; he’ll decide what info u need to know & when.]
rummel:
[And I hope An Abbott government asks some tough questions of the IPCC when the official draft comes up for government review….]
I do too. I genuinely hope it prepares as assertive and pobing a case as it can, testing the substance of IPCC positions, and is then able to demonstrate that it was understood the responses and is willing to account for them with intellectual rigour. It would be so amusing, and yet also, allay at least some of my concerns for the future in this area of policy.
I suspect my hope will go unrequited however. The Abbott regime has nobody within its ranks who could do that and has just sacked some of the people who could have helped. IMO, there’s more hope of me playing full forward for the Western Bulldogs than the above happening. 😉
Sean
Wrong. Still not proving me wrong.
Stop Announcung The Boats is NOT Stop The Boats
[As we saw with your claims about what Tim Flannery said, there’s no truth, just your own inability to fact check.]
It rained, the dams filled and Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth are not waste lands.
Flannery: I don’t know … Three years on, it’s clear that climate change is an even bigger crisis than we imagined in 2005 … The water problem is so severe for Adelaide that it may run out of water by early 2009
FLANNERY: Although we’re getting, say, a 20 per cent decrease in rainfall in some areas of Australia, that’s translating to a 60 per cent decrease in the run-off into the dams and rivers. That’s because the soil is warmer because of global warming … so even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems.
FLANNERY: I think that within this century the concept of the strong Gaia will actually become physically manifest. I do think that the Gaia of the ancient Greeks, where they believed the earth was effectively one whole and perfect living creature, that doesn’t exist yet, but it will exist in future … ants of course have democratic processes; they actually vote … We’ve seen the IPCC projections are now ground truthed against real-world change, and we see that we’re tracking the worst-case scenario, which is six degrees of warming.
Flannery: We’ll never be able to control the earth … We can’t control its systems. But we can nudge them and we can foresee danger. Once that occurs, then the Gaia of the ancient Greeks really will exist. This planet, this Gaia, will have acquired a brain and a nervous system. That will make it act as a living animal, as a living organism, at some sort of level.
I am happy Mr Flannery is no longer getting paid by the public to make these claims.
The Abbott Government is so anti science that they intend to repeal the laws of gravity.
Fran and Oakeshott Country
Re the rumour about Julia calling the election on 14th September to get more entitlements have been told originated from LNP headquarters in Queensland (who would have guessed ?) Same as Tim (Tam as quoted) has left Julia
What a beautiful day it is, have been for my walk had coffee with friends now off to the beach. What more could I want? Possibly only a change in Government 😀
Oakeshott Country You seem well settled in Sydney now?
Confessions,I believe what was going to happen to research funding was that the government or minister would have final say on what projects would be “worthwhile.” Peer review apparently doesn’t mean anything to these non scientific folk.
Tony Burke is so right.
The Secrecy Culture. The cover up culture.
How long before the next AWB?