Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria

As the laying of charges against Liberal-turned-independent MP Geoff Shaw makes the Napthine government’s hold on power look a little shakier, Newspoll finds Victorian Labor moving into the lead.

Newspoll brings us a well-timed result of Victorian state voting intention, this being the usual bi-monthly result for July-August with a sample of 1144 respondents. It has Labor moving into the lead with 51-49 on two-party preferred, reversing the result of the last poll, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (down two), 38% for Labor (up three) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Personal ratings find Denis Napthine losing some honeymoon gloss, up five on disapproval to 31% and steady on approval at 53%. Daniel Andrews meanwhile is up three on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 32%, although Napthine’s lead as preferred premier is essentially unchanged at 47-25, compared with 49-26 last time. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

Here’s how the full gamut of this term’s polling – 12 Newspolls and five ReachTELs – looks after being run through the BludgerTrack meat-grinder:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,123 thoughts on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. Poor baby sean is getting very flustered now, see in space of 3 comments (despite guidance the other day) he still refers to the GG as Shorten’s mummy, he didn’t know the date of the election, has no idea of constitution re GG appointment or dismissal.
    Poor little darling probably has lost his job at Menzies House no need for nut cases anymore and he has no help whatever so making even more stupid comments :devil:

  2. lizzie

    briefly

    On Twitter, one of TA’s fans is praising his humanity “because he trained as a priest”.

    When Tones was first wheeled out as a pollie the Sunday(?) program did a puff piece on him. During it he told of being assigned to the seminary infirmary. It has really stuck in my memory because of his telling of how shocked he was at the “malingering” of so many patients in the infirmary. It sounded more like jesus telling of how he cleared out the money lenders from the temple. Obviously it was important to Tony as he chose to tell us about it but humanity ? I don’t think so.

  3. lefty e

    Posted Wednesday, September 18, 2013 at 11:55 am | Permalink

    How many degrees cooler was Labors 5% cut to Australian emissions making?

    We dont know exactly, but some: only a joint international effort can reel in dangerous AGW, and if you dont contribute, you become an walking excuse for others not to as well. Part of the problem, not the solution.

    The better question is how much temperatures will rise as a result of failing to contribute.
    ——————————————————–

    A better question or measure is “How much less carbon that contributes to climate change is Australia pumping into the atmosphere?”

    People like Sean are a blot of society.

    To stupid to understand that doing something no matter how small is better than doing nothing

  4. WILLIAM

    WHY DONT U BAN SEAN USING THE WORD/ KNIFE
    DISRESPECT FOR THE HEAD OF STATE,
    IS DISREPECT FOR HER MAJESTY ALSO

    IT S YOUR DUTY TO NOT ALLOW HIM TO SPEAK IN THAT MANNER I WOULD OF THOUGHT

    SEEMS THE LIBS USE VIOLENT WORDS

    WORDS FAIL ME

  5. Sean

    Liberal appointed former Liberal politicians

    and that is OK….hypocrisy is what I call your comments about the current GG

    But then I am not surprised you are such a dill

  6. that is the very first time ive read any thing from the liberal

    sean,,, next thing he will calling for all labor voters to be exiled or sent to prison,

    to use the word {knife } must be an offence surely

  7. It never ceases to amaze me how little Australians know about the workings of their own government when it is so bleeding easy to find facts.

    Wikipedia explains the way the GG is chosen. It has nothing to do with the parliament. Tony Abbott will choose someone, the Queen will be advised and she’ll sign off on it. That’s it.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governor-General_of_Australia

    The conventional term of a GG is five years. Quentin Bryce was appointed in 2008 and in October 2012 Julia Gillard extended her term until March 2014. Abbott will not reappoint her. As it takes a few months to work through the appointment process Abbott will have to name her successor very soon. Brace yourselves for an abysmal choice – he’s keen on Grandpappy Howard and Peter Cosgrove. Cosgrove has said he doesn’t want the job. That means…….

  8. Found what I wanted —

    asked to withdraw after calling Roxon a ‘feminist hypocrite, Mirabella’s response —

    Mrs Mirabella—Mr Speaker, I am not sure which part of my phrase was offensive—

    The SPEAKER—Order! The member for Indi will respond to my 5question!

    Mrs Mirabella—whether the member for Gellibrand was a feminist or whether she was a hypocrite. Which part is offensive?

    …this is the woman feminists are defending against supposedly misogynist attacks!

  9. lizzie it sort of anger and despair rolled in to one

    and that a person here cannot see what happening to the country

    i see abbott as a revenge person i said he would take away every labor thing he could and JG policies .

    i it a power and hate game see the first things he does and follow that ,,

    love him to try medi care and PBS

    we know of some one giving evidence at the royal commission

    i mentioned will that go

    the response was he had better not try that one

    well i do believe he will quietly with draw funds

  10. The way people carry on about the thread makes you wonder how they would cope if there was ever a Liberal Government running the country.

  11. Makes you wonder what would have happened if Essendon, Hird etc hadn’t caved….

    THE AFL has withdrawn its charges against Essendon club doctor Bruce Reid.

    The resolution means Reid will continue as the Bombers’ senior doctor in 2014.

    Reid was one of four Bomber officials charged over the club’s 2012 injection program that resulted in Essendon being booted out of this year’s finals amid a raft of serious sanctions.

    It also cost senior coach James Hird a one-year suspension. Hird, assistant coach Mark Thompson and football boss Danny Corcoran accepted their charges, but Reid fought on.

    But today the AFL has dropped all charges against Reid that were laid as a result of the ASADA inquiry.

  12. Steam2 ‏@StanSteam2 10m
    Madness….Up to a 1/4 of Centrelink call centre workers are set to lose their jobs b4 the end of the year #auspol pic.twitter.com/3xcEb7YFsM

    =====================================================

    that’s to make u hang up when u are sick of holding on

    less pensions

  13. TWEET

    Brendan Brooks ‏@HyperBrendan 24m
    I don’t think a Head of State has shaken the hands of as many talentless people since the Lord’s Test #swearingin #auspol

    Retweeted by George W. Bludger
    Expand

  14. hypcracy….wrong – hypo inadequate
    cracy
    1:form of government; also : state having such a form
    2: social or political class (as of powerful persons)
    3: theory of social organization

  15. GG

    Surprisingly there hasn’t been a rush of applicants to be Hird’s seat-warmer. They’re runing away from it as fast as they can.

    I loved the Sheedy option.

  16. Regrettably, Quentin Bryce will not be re-appointed as GG.
    Her term expires in March.

    She is almost certain to be replaced by Peter Cosgrove, an old mate of Howard’s, a hardened Tory to boot, and a Queen’s man.

    Does that make you feel better, Sean?

  17. Surprisingly there hasn’t been a rush of applicants to be Hird’s seat-warmer

    see who misses out on real jobs first …Brisbane…Melbourne assistant/ Roos rookie…any other teams renovating this year?

  18. Lets be fair, for once Sean is right. Only under Labor could this happen. After all we all know there’s no chance of abbots Libs appointing a mother in law or any other kind of woman to the GGship.

  19. Kinkajou,

    West Coast, GWS, and Essendon. Leon cameron has ben appointed at GWS and Craig is the front runner at Brsibane.

    I’d heard Neale Daniher at Essendon and then I heard he was ill.

  20. Naomi Woodley ‏@naomiwoodley 4m
    It’s understood that the 3 Dept Secretaries going (Don Russell, Blair Comley & Andrew Metcalfe) have all been sacked. ie: not given a choice

  21. Palmer now 18 behind?

    NOOOOOO

    Think how much enjoyment I will be deprived if Palmer fails to score a seat at his first attempt compared to the Greens who took like 6 decades to win Loon Central 🙁

  22. so abbott has said we now swear allegence to the queen

    so is that god save the queen at footy finals

    i hope so because no one under 65 would stand up

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